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CADJPY: Retracement Expected FirstI'm expecting a retracement from this pair soon. it's massively over-bought, that said I think it will push up to just past 110 to meet resistance before it does. I've got my alerts set at 110. Being over-bought is not a determining factor, we can see that recent previous high levels were more overbought than they are now, before retracement. I can also see that the loose monetary policy of BoJ continues to negatively affect the value of the Yen, and this doesn't look set to change, so I'll be waiting and watching - if we break resistance then we could be heading all the way up to 116 - 118 (last seen in 2007), but I do think we'll retrace first, down to 106.5 so could be around 350pips. I'll be using LTF's and wait for confirmation before executing any trade.
Short
by Finchcliffe
1
Nikkei break out? - China's JapanificationThe recent Nikkei rally is bringing it ever closer to that "magical" 30,000 level which it hasn't touched since the late '80s collapse. IFF a breakout occurs, expect a collapse in all XYZ/JPY pairs - since, true to form, every equity/hedge fund in the world is expected to pile in. Internal Chinese (export/import) numbers are showing a fair pick up in exports - post Covid - BUT a very anemic internal demand, with import numbers steadily surprising to the down-side (by a lot!). Simultaneously Japanese heavy industry is racking up some solid numbers lately, especially in regard to steel, automobile and electronic components. All of this is fueled by an abating chip shortage, giving world wide car production a boost. E.g. Watch the Nikkei price action and fully expect a blinding YEN rally should that 30,000 level get blown away!
OSE:NK2251!Long
by Nemo_Confidat
GBPJPY: Bullish Pattern... Again! 🇬🇧🇯🇵 No surprise, GBPJPY is trading in a bullish trend. However, after the price reached, 183.77 level at the end of June, the pair started to consolidate. The market formed a cup and handle pattern on 4H time frame. Its neckline breakout will be a very strong trend-following signal. 4H candle close above 183.88 will confirm the breakout. A bullish continuation will be expected to 184.5 level then. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
5
USDJPY: Detailed Technical Outlook 🇺🇸🇯🇵 USDJPY is trading in a strong bullish trend on a daily. Ahead, I see a solid horizontal resistance from where the market may initiate a correctional movement. Analyzing a price action on 4H time frame, I noticed that the pair started to slow down. The price is currently trading within a rising channel. To catch the initiation of a correctional movement, wait for a bearish breakout of the support of the channel. 4H candle close below that will confirm the violation. A bearish continuation will be expected then. Alternatively, a bullish breakout of the underlined blue are will be a strong bullish signal. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
8
Why is the Bank of Japan nervous? ...To properly represent (and trade!) the Yen related pairs, it is strongly recommended to create a Yen-based currency basket. (I did attempt to import data into TV from such a basket - weighted by the acceleration differential between the USD, EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, CHF and a basket of Central European currencies versus the Yen but for some reason I couldn't make that work. I.e., the main chart here represents the next best thing which is an unweighted USD|EUR|GBP|AUD|CAD / YEN basket, to convey the same idea.) The central problem the Bank of Japan is facing at this moment, continued acceleration of rate (and thus, price) differentials relative to the other G-20 currencies. (I.e., The Yen price levels, alone, would not cause the same concerns.) On the top of it, China's PBC decided to dump massive amounts of Yen (and Euro) reserves, still actively taking place as of last Friday. The now solid uptrend in Japanese economic indicators also continue to add to the upward pressures, leaving the BoJ with ever less wiggle-room. FX Yen options implied volatility - 8.34%-8.93% - is running under historical levels, (i.e. they are considered "cheap") despite the increased Call buying, as of late. Ultimately, what the BoJ will be forced to do here, and most importantly When(?) and to what extent, is still open to debate but two aspects of this issue became rather obvious; 1) At this point markets, in general, seem to maintain a complacent stance (see options pricing) regarding the significance and potential magnitude of a BoJ move; 2) This is a 30-year, $3+ Trillion Dollar short position which will have to be unwound (covered) in the event of a BoJ interest rate hike and as such, liquidity will be a major issue! To illustrate the last point - above -, this was the recent EURJPY action following a rumor that the BoJ "may do something";
by Nemo_Confidat
2
USDJPY: Slowing Momentum & Your Trading Plan 🇺🇸🇯🇵 I guess that it is obvious that USDJPY is bullish. However, analysing the price action, we can spot a slowing momentum: after a sharp bullish impulse, the market started to grow within a rising wedge pattern - a classic reversal pattern. Its support breakout will be a strong bearish signal. Wait for a 4H candle close below its boundary as a confirmation. Sell aggressively or on a retest then. Target will be - 143.44 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
2
Exciting News! Yen Hits a New 7-Month Low Against the Dollar 🚀 The USD/JPY forex pair is currently on fire, and the low volatility in this trading duo presents us with an incredible opportunity to maximize our profits. This is the perfect time to jump into the action and ride the wave of success! Why should you be thrilled about this news? Well, let me break it down for you: 1. Yen at a 7-Month Low: The Yen has reached its lowest point against the Dollar in the past seven months. This indicates a significant shift in the market dynamics, favoring the Dollar. The USD/JPY pair is ripe for exciting trading opportunities! 2. Increased Profit Potential: Low volatility in the USD/JPY pair means the price movements are relatively stable, making anticipating and capitalizing on market trends easier. We can seize this opportunity to maximize our profits with a well-informed strategy and careful analysis. 3. Favorable Trading Conditions: The current market conditions are highly advantageous for trading USD/JPY. The low volatility allows for smoother trading experiences, reduced risk, and better entry and exit points. It's like having the wind at our backs, propelling us toward success! Now, here comes the exciting part – the call to action! I encourage you to seize this golden opportunity to start trading the USD/JPY forex pair with low volatility. Here's what you need to do: 1. Conduct thorough analysis: Dive into the market charts, study the trends, and identify potential entry and exit points. Knowledge is power, and the more informed you are, the better equipped you'll be to make profitable trades. 2. Develop a solid trading strategy: Craft a well-thought-out plan that aligns with your financial goals and risk tolerance. Use technical indicators, fundamental analysis, or expert advice to enhance your process. 3. Stay updated and connected: Monitor the latest market news, economic indicators, and potential events that may impact the USD/JPY pair. Stay connected with fellow traders, share insights, and leverage the power of collective knowledge. Remember, success favors those who act. So, let's dive into the exciting world of trading USD/JPY with low volatility! Feel free to reach out if you have any questions, need assistance, or want to share your trading experiences. Just comment away!
Long
by bryandowningqln
4
Can USD/JPY rally through this 300-pip liquidity gap?Divergent monetary policies between the Fed and BOJ have allowed USD/JPY to extend its bullish trend on the daily chart. Whilst the Fed are very close to their terminal rate, they have to keep the threat of further hikes on the table to tame inflation expectations. When coupled with the ultra-easy policies of the BOJ, we've seen USD/JPY return to its cycle highs. However, the current resistance level around the November high marks the lows of a ~300-pip liquidity gap - and such areas can see prices move swiftly through them if revisited. Soft US inflation data last November sent USD/JPY aggressively lower on the day, and left the liquidity gap to potentially be filled. The question now is whether bulls can persist and send prices within it, which could see USD/JPY head for the range highs around 145. Of course, a building threat for bulls to keep in the back of their mind is that Japan's Ministry of Finance or the BOJ could become vocal about yen volatility to spook JPY bears. But until then, we prefer to buy dips on the daily chart or seek bullish continuation patterns on lower timeframes.
Long
by CityIndex
CHF JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISAdam Cole, Chief Currency Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, has highlighted recent policy shifts from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the persistent threat of imported inflation, and increasing levels of verbal intervention in Japan. "While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may have let down some investors with a 25bp rate hike last week when many were hoping for a 50bp increase, it made its intentions clear: it's ready to buy CHF to provide suitable monetary conditions," says Cole. Indeed, despite a somewhat disappointing rate hike, the SNB's commitment to provide appropriate monetary conditions and willingness to buy CHF indicate a robust approach to currency management. The SNB's current focus on selling foreign currency further substantiates this view. Furthermore, the Swiss central bank's leadership recognises the benefits of CHF appreciation in the current economic climate. SNB Chair Jordan noted that the strong CHF has effectively acted as a shield against imported inflation, an increasingly prevalent issue globally. "SNB Chair Jordan revealed over the weekend that from the present perspective, monetary policy might not be tight enough to anchor price stability. He also noted that CHF appreciation has shielded Switzerland from imported inflation," Cole adds. In Japan, meanwhile, the situation is a bit more nuanced. Despite the increasing verbal interventions from officials, the strategists at RBC believe there is potential in shorting JPY at current levels. "In Japan, officials are ratcheting up their verbal interventions. Despite this, and the rising risk of intervention, RBC sees potential in shorting JPY at current levels," says Cole. The pullback in USD/JPY from Friday's highs does leave some room for maneuver. This environment, coupled with the SNB's policy stance and Switzerland's inflationary shield, has led RBC to take a bullish position on the CHF/JPY pair. As the markets continue to evolve in response to inflation, interest rate adjustments, and economic policy decisions, the perspective offered by strategists like Cole is crucial.
Long
by thunderpips
4