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🔥 MODIFICATIONS & ADD-ONs: GBPJPY...DT 🔥 POSITION TRADE 🔥🙌🏾 NO RISK TRADE MODIFICATIONS SLO3 @ 191.25 ⏳ SLO1 @ 183.75 📉 +41 pips +SL @ 183.66 🚫 +9 pips SLO2 @ 183.20 (1m) ⏳ TP1 @ 169.66 (shaving 25%) TP2 @ 157.50 (shaving 25%) TP3 @ 148.66 (shaving 25%) TP4 @ 135.00 (closing ALL Sell Orders) BLO1 @ 131.75 ⏳ BLO2 @ 123.75 ⏳ -SL @ 120.00 🚫 🤑 Our Net Equity is @ +158 pips 🚫 +SL modified to preserve capital (see above) ✍️ After Multi-timeframe analysis, on noticed a newly created Supply Zone on the 55m and the 1m chart. 📉 If Price Action (PA) pulls back (PB) up to that Supply Zone, I placed a new Sell Limit Order at the proximal of the range (see above) — the range for an entry is from 183.20 to 183.60 (55D)
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
UJI know I am not the only person seeing this now - break of larger trend - retest of the channel - lots of slowing down candles (consolidation) ∴ we can expect an impulsive candle coming. Which will either be bullish or bearish. - chances are that it will be bullish due to the average direction and momentum the market has been moving all this time. - I will set a buy stop according to more information. Which probably means I will wait for the impulsive supply and then follow that demand (in line with my trading plan) NB!!!! All moderators reading this post, should there be any problems please do inform me and teach me don't just send thousands of links. We do not trade the same as people, so we cannot be posting the same or similar things.
Long
by Mhangwane1
2
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISThe Japanese Yen (JPY) recently bounced back from its lowest point in seven months against the US Dollar (USD), following a statement from Japan's leading currency official that they are open to considering all possibilities regarding the currency. The recent depreciation of the Yen has been attributed to a policy gap between the accommodative Bank of Japan (BoJ) and foreign central banks, which are following a more aggressive monetary policy approach. Despite the potential for the US Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate to climb higher, the recent intervention by Japanese authorities at the 145 mark indicates that short-selling the Yen may pose significant risks. Chris Turner, ING Bank: USD/JPY's Volatile Dance Chris Turner, Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEE at ING Bank offers a perspective focused on the potential for a strong dollar to continue pushing the USD/JPY higher. "The strong dollar environment keeps USD/JPY grinding higher and approaching the 145 area, where Japanese authorities sold FX last September," says Turner. This suggests an anticipation of Japanese intervention should the USD to JPY exchange rate continue its upward trend. However, Turner also predicts potential volatility. "Over the coming month, we can see USD/JPY sharply bouncing around in a 140-145 range – suggesting that short-dated USD/JPY option volatility is priced a little too low," he adds. This indicates that while the dollar's strength could push the pair higher, market participants should also brace for possible fluctuations within a defined range. Yoshio Takahashi, Natwest: BoJ's Cautious Stance Yoshio Takahashi, Chief Japan Economist at Natwest, highlights the role of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy decisions in shaping the Yen's trajectory. According to Takahashi, the board continues to voice caution about adjusting policy settings too hastily, implying a lack of confidence in the sustainability of stronger wage growth. "Multiple mentions of the possibility of 2H FY2023 inflation exceeding current expectations suggest to us that the BoJ is quite likely to upwardly revise its official projections at the July meeting," says Takahashi. This hints at the BoJ's dovish stance and the potential impact it could have on the yen. The strategist also highlights the impact of politics on the currency. "BOJ watchers will also need to be keeping at least one eye on exchange rate movements and domestic politics. Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs Masato Kanda ramped up his yen-supportive jawboning on June 26," Takahashi adds, signalling that political interventions and verbal tactics could significantly influence the yen's position. Roberto Mialich, UniCredit: Monetary Policy Uncertainty UniCredit's FX Strategist, Roberto Mialich, underscores the influence of monetary policy uncertainty on the yen's weakness. According to Mialich, doubts about the BoJ's policy normalization this year are contributing to the yen's broad weakness. "The JPY fall is mostly due to doubts about the BoJ’s policy normalization this year. The Japanese forward curve has already moved to reflect this uncertainty," says Mialich. Looking ahead, Mialich forecasts potential for change. "We see the 19 December BoJ meeting as the one in which a first step in normalization might be announced. This might drag USD-JPY to 135," he adds. Despite the yen's current softness, Mialich sees potential for its recovery should the BoJ take steps towards policy normalization. Paul Mackel, HSBC: The Weight of Intervention and Yield Caps Turning our lens to the analysis from Paul Mackel, Global Head of FX Research at HSBC, there's an assertion of a cap on USD/JPY's growth, primarily influenced by the threat of foreign exchange intervention and the upper limit of US Treasury yields. "USD-JPY is likely to be capped by the threat of FX intervention and US Treasury yields already towards the top end of the recent trading range," says Mackel. This denotes an environment where growth in the pair could be restrained by multiple macroeconomic factors. In light of a potential policy change by the BoJ in September, Mackel maintains a cautious stance. "It is too early to play that in the JPY but the worst-performing currency in G10 FX so far this year may at least enjoy some stability in the coming weeks," he adds. His comments suggest a degree of near-term stability in the yen despite it being the underperformer among G10 currencies this year. Barclays Analysts: Rising Intervention Risks Analysts at Barclays share similar concerns regarding intervention by Japanese authorities. Their analysis also touches on the recent depreciation of the yen due to diverging monetary policy between a dovish BoJ and hawkish central banks overseas. "Recent JPY depreciation has been driven by policy divergence between a dovish BoJ and hawkish central banks overseas," Barclays analysts suggest. This perspective underscores the global forces at play influencing the yen's standing in the foreign exchange market. The forecasted rise in Tokyo's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the recent verbal intervention also feature prominently in Barclays' outlook. "Although USDJPY could head higher still, recent intervention by the Japanese authorities around 145 makes yen shorts an increasingly dangerous proposition here," they add. This implies the possibility of a continued rise in USD/JPY, though not without associated risks owing to likely intervention. Valentin Marinov, Credit Agricole: Gauging the Intervention Risk Valentin Marinov, Head of G10 FX Strategy at Credit Agricole, presents an intriguing perspective on the interplay between the yen's value and the possibility of intervention. "Japan’s FX Tsar, Masato Kanda, has ramped up his verbal intervention in USD/JPY following the exchange rate’s move to nearly 144 late on Friday," says Marinov. His comment highlights the growing concern within Japan about the pace and magnitude of the yen's depreciation against the dollar. Marinov's forecast hinges on the valuation of USD/JPY exchange rate and the potential verbal and actual intervention by Japanese authorities. "A move towards 146 would see USD/JPY become significantly overvalued, however. USD/JPY traders should next watch for Kanda using the phrases that FX is 'clearly not reflecting fundamentals' or that movements in FX are 'clearly being excessive' or 'one side'," he adds. This insight reflects the delicate balance in the FX market and the potential triggers that might spur a more forceful response from Japanese authorities.
by thunderpips
AUDJPY - Short-Term Bullish ExpectationThis is a combined chart using the Futures contract for the Aussie and the Yen This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Theory - Volume Analysis - Footprint - Market Profile - Volume Profile - WYCKOFF - ETC
CME:6A1!Long
by SmartMoneySource
GJI don't know what I am doing wrong but I keep getting it wrong as moderators keep flagging my posts. The impulse upwards was an indication that the demand and the supply met each other at the right time. The blue rectangle was an indication of a area of sensitivity, the market turned just before our entry point. Therefore we missed the initial target but that's okay because they'll always be another trade. I am trying to write this as long as possible because maybe then it won't get flagged. My work and analysis is straight forward and easy to understand but clearly I need to make it complicated and full of things that are not needed. We see rejection and continuation from both sides, lots of candles, wicks left & right, up & down, sensitive zones, bear candles, bull candles, candlestick formations, channels and movements.
Long
by Mhangwane1
✨ ADD-ON: NZDJPY ✨ AGGRESSIVE SHORT (2D) ✨TIMELINE 00:00 Intro 00:52 DCA Entries, TPs, SLs 03:48 Technical Analysis for Novices 08:20 Technical Analysis for the Pros 10:55 BIG PICTURE (21D) 12:27 Boost, Follow, Comment, Join -SL @ 90.00 🚫 SLO2 @ 89.33 ⏳(21D) SLO1 @ 89.00 ⏳ (2D) SSO @ 88.33 ⏳ (2D) TP1 @ 87.80 (shaving 25%) TP2 @ 86.80 (shaving 25%) TP3 @ 86.15 (shaving 25%) TP4 @ 84.90 (shaving 25%) TP4 @ 1.1475 (closing ALL Sell Orders) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS A few oscillators appear to be showing some bearish momentum on the NZDJPY chart. For example, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is NEUTRAL, which is a sign of bearish momentum. Additionally, the Stochastic Oscillator is also NEUTRAL at its 14-day moving average, which signals increased distribution. Both are hinting towards selling pressure. WE ARE A COMMUNITY BOOST a trade idea to share with others and "pay it forward" FOLLOW to receive alerts of any new posted ideas COMMENT with questions, insight, and expertise JOIN our group chat: receive free analyses on any instrument
by ProfessorCEWard
✨ NEW: NZDJPY ✨ BIG PICTURE (14D) ✨🗣 SHOUT OUT TO @Vick_NZ for recommending I re-analyze this pair. -SL @ 94.50 🚫 SLO @ 89.33 ⏳ TP1 @ 79.75 (shaving 25%) TP2 @ 71.50 (shaving 25%) TP3 @ 65.50 (shaving 25%) TP4 @ 56.25 (shaving 25%) SUPPORT @ 54.00 BLO @ 48.55 ⏳ BLO2 @ 77.85 ⏳ WE ARE A COMMUNITY BOOST a trade idea to share with others and "pay it forward" FOLLOW to receive alerts of any new posted ideas COMMENT with questions, insight, and expertise JOIN our group chat: receive free analyses on any instrument
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
6
USDJPY: Detailed Structure Analysis 🇺🇸🇯🇵 Here is my latest structure analysis for USDJPY. Horizontal Key Levels Resistance 1: 143.54 - 144.10 area Resistance 2: 145.10 - 145.60 area Resistance 3: 148.70 - 148.90 area Resistance 4: 151.70 - 151.90 area Support 1: 142.00 - 142.50 area Support 2: 140.60 - 141.45 area Support 3: 137.40 - 138.80 area Vertical Key Levels Vertical Support 1: rising trend line Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
4
USDJPY: Bullish Accumulation & Trading Plan 🇺🇸🇯🇵 USDJPY is stuck on a key horizontal daily resistance. The price is currently trading within a narrow range. Because the current trend is bullish, I am looking for trend-following opportunities. To buy with a confirmation, wait for a bullish breakout of 142.0 - 142.45 area. Daily candle close above will confirm the violation. A bullish continuation will be expected then at least to 143.5 Alternatively, a bearish breakout of the support of the range may trigger a correctional movement. ❤️Please, support this video with like and comment!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
10
USDJPY Mid-Term Bearish Expectation/Analysis The explanation for this analysis is in the text on the chart This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels. I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy, which includes the: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Theory - Volume Analysis - Footprint - Market Profile - Volume Profile - WYCKOFF - ETC PD: excuse my poor english
CME:6J1!Short
by SmartMoneySource
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISBNP Paribas 2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts Capital Outflows will Undermine the Dollar A starting point for the BNP market analysis is that it considers the dollar is notably overvalued in global markets, especially against the yen. It adds; “The USD on a G10 trade-weighted index is trading almost 2 standard deviations (about 25%) rich relative to our estimates of its long-term fair value, as captured by the BNP Paribas FEER.” The debate surrounds whether there will be a trigger for the overvaluation to be reversed. BNP expects a significant shift in capital flows over the next few months which will have an important impact on currency rates. According to the bank; “The normalization of global yields should continue to encourage repatriation by Eurozone and Japanese investors, who are overweight US assets.” BNP also considers that unease over US equity valuations will encourage a flow of funds out of the US into the rest of the world It adds; “Coupled with FX-hedge ratios at low levels, we see space for significant USD selling. Overall, BNP places less emphasis on Federal Reserve rate cuts in forecasting that the dollar will lose ground. Yen Can Secure Capital Inflows BNP continues to expect a strong recovery for the yen. Firstly, it expects that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy in July which will tend to strengthen the currency, especially given scope for a repatriation of funds by domestic institutions. It also expects lower US yields will support the yen while the threat of intervention will tend to curb potential selling pressure on the currency. The dollar to yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate is not forecast to hold above the 140.00 level.
Short
by thunderpips
6
Bulls circle USD/JPY ahead of the FOMC meetingWhilst the US dollar has mostly retraced over the past couple of weeks against FX majors, it has held its own against then Yen. In fact, momentum is now turning higher after forming a triple bottom ~139 and breaking above a retracement line. The most traded price during the prior consolidation is 139.55, which could provide a level of support if prices retrace ahead of its next leg higher. Take note that overnight implied volatility has blown out ahead of the FOMC, so be prepared for some volatility before the next major move takes place.
Long
by CityIndex
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISBNP Paribas 2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts Capital Outflows will Undermine the Dollar A starting point for the BNP market analysis is that it considers the dollar is notably overvalued in global markets, especially against the yen. It adds; “The USD on a G10 trade-weighted index is trading almost 2 standard deviations (about 25%) rich relative to our estimates of its long-term fair value, as captured by the BNP Paribas FEER.” The debate surrounds whether there will be a trigger for the overvaluation to be reversed. BNP expects a significant shift in capital flows over the next few months which will have an important impact on currency rates. According to the bank; “The normalization of global yields should continue to encourage repatriation by Eurozone and Japanese investors, who are overweight US assets.” BNP also considers that unease over US equity valuations will encourage a flow of funds out of the US into the rest of the world It adds; “Coupled with FX-hedge ratios at low levels, we see space for significant USD selling. Overall, BNP places less emphasis on Federal Reserve rate cuts in forecasting that the dollar will lose ground. Yen Can Secure Capital Inflows BNP continues to expect a strong recovery for the yen. Firstly, it expects that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy in July which will tend to strengthen the currency, especially given scope for a repatriation of funds by domestic institutions. It also expects lower US yields will support the yen while the threat of intervention will tend to curb potential selling pressure on the currency. The dollar to yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate is not forecast to hold above the 140.00 level.
Short
by thunderpips
3
🔥 MODIFICATION: NZDJPY 🔥 SWING TRADE 🔥Our technical analysis of NZDJPY is still in play. The pair has been in a downtrend for the past few months and has recently reached a Supply Zone (SZ) at 86.60 on the 15-hour chart. This SZ suggests that there is strong selling pressure at this level, and it is likely that the pair will continue to decline. The next resistance level is at 86.80, and if this level is respected, then we have a huge opportunity to capitalize on this downside pressure. Resistance @ 86.80 Supply Zone @ 86.60 SSO2 @ 86.15 📉 SSO1 @ 85.15 📉 TP1 @ 84.35 (shaving 25%) TP2 @ 83.66 (shaving 50%) TP3 @ 82.33 (closing ALL Sell Orders) BLO1 @ 82.00 BLO2 @ 81.25 -SL @ 80.85 🚫
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
1