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USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSThe dollar is expected to fall and the yen rise in April. Risk aversion prevailed in March on credit concerns about US regional banks and a major European bank, with the dollar/yen pair trading with a heavy topside to drop below 130 yen. Excessive concerns about the US financial system then eased on news that some regional banks would be bought out, so the dollar was bought again. However, the pair’s rally was quite muted compared to its rally towards 135 yen after the release of the US February consumer price index (CPI) data. With President Biden also saying the banking crisis was still not over, it seems this rally was merely due to a slight withdrawal of ‘excessive concerns,’ with investors still worried that tougher banking regulations might act as a new risk-off factor. Furthermore, though FRB chair Jerome Powell has said he envisages one more rate hike this year, the markets are split evenly when it comes to pricing in another hike, so it seems there are concerns about the negative impact of tightening on the financial environment. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will also be meeting to set policy for the first time under its new structure at the end of April. Most observers believe the BOJ will stick to the status quo for now, but it is also possible the BOJ might announce a policy shift. The Japanese March CPI data is also set for release on April 21. If this points to stronger-than-expected inflationary pressures, a policy tweak/shift will become a more realistic possibility. Investors are starting to focus on FRB rate hikes, so if a BOJ policy shift does seem more likely, market participants will then focus on a future shrinkage of Japanese/US interest-rate differentials. Based on the above, it seems the dollar/yen pair will be susceptible to more downward pressure in April. However, the US also released some firm economic indicators in March. Inflationary pressures also remain high, as evinced by a comment by a FRB official that “inflation is still too high.” US interest rates rose and the dollar was bought at the start of March on hawkish comments by FRB chair Jerome Powell. Controlling inflation remains the FRB’s number one priority. With Mr. Powell also commenting that “the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated,” some observers believe it is too early to start talking about rate cuts. With concerns about the financial system smoldering away, market participants will be focusing on comments by FRB officials ahead of the May FOMC meeting as they try to gauge the direction of monetary policy.
by thunderpips
4
USD/JPY set to extend Friday's rally?A divergent them is in play between the Fed and BOJ which could help it recover some more of last week's losses. BOJ governor Ueda reiterated the central bank's ultra-dovish stance whilst US 1-year consumer inflation expectations spikes 0.8% pct point and the Fed's Waller delivered his latest hawkish remarks (inflation remains too high and we've not done enough to fight it). A bullish engulfing candle formed on Friday, making a potential swing low around its YTD low and monthly S1 pivot point. The OBV (on balance volume) has broken to a new cycle high ahead of price action to suggest bulls have the upper hand. - The bias is for a move to the 134.50 resistance zone, a break above which brings 135 into focus. - If prices pull back, we'd look for evidence of a swing low between 133.20/50 around the weekly and monthly pivot points - This could also incre4ase the potential reward to risk ratio
Long
by CityIndex
USDJPY: What to Look At This Week 🇺🇸🇯🇵 Since USDJPY reached an important structure low in March, the market is correcting. The pair is accumulating around a key horizontal resistance cluster. Look for a bullish breakout of 134.06. A daily candle close above that will confirm a violation. A bullish continuation will be expected at least to 135.0 level then. I will post an update after a breakout confirmation. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
5
USDJPY: Your Trading Plan For Next Week 🇺🇸🇯🇵 I see important bullish accumulation signs on USDJPY. The price keeps setting multiple higher lows, perfectly respecting a solid horizontal resistance and setting equal highs on that. I will expect a breakout attempt of the underlined structure next week. If the price breaks and closes above 134.06 level, it will confirm a violation. A bullish continuation will be expected then at least to 135 level. I will post an update once the breakout is confirmed. Good luck next week. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
9
Weekly Momentum On Major Pairs (Week 16/2023) First Thing First: This analysis is for “general overview only” as it is solely based on price action. That’s why it is called momentum analysis in the first place. Support/Resistant, Volume Macro view nor any other factors are not used during write up. Refer to the individual pair analysis for a more comprehensive write up. XXX/USD: Mixed Gold & Silver: Mixed XXX/JPY: Very Bullish Stock Indexes: Mixed BitCoin: Very Bullish WK 16 (15 Apr 2023)
by SonicDeejay
USD/JPY pulls back towards support cluster around 133USD/JPY has pulled back from the April high, yet the strong bullish structure of the 1-hour chart suggests it can try to break to a new cycle high. Today’s low has found support at the 20-hour EMA and April 4th high. And volumes are now trending higher, and a bullish pinbar on higher volumes suggests demand above 133, which is just beneath the daily pivot point. • The bias is bullish above 133 and for a break above the April high • The initial target is the daily pivot point, just below 134.50 • A second target to consider is the R pivot, around the daily R2
by CityIndex
USDJPY Outlook 13 April 2023The USDJPY trades along the 133 support level and could see further downside as the DXY continues to weaken. However with the continual divergence in monetary policy between the US Federal Reserve and the BoJ, a rebound to the upside is likely to always be on the cards. If the USDJPY breaks strongly below 133 (and more crucially below 132.70) the price could trade down to 132. Looking for a possible test and rebound from the 132 round number support level
Short
by JinDao_Tai
USD vs YEN | USDJPY IdeaHi traders! As you can see, the long-term trend of the USD/JPY price chart is bullish. But in this direction there are lines and areas that show resistance against price growth. So we will wait for the price to break the first resistance zone ( it's around $133.80 ). USDJPY Dollar vs Yen FX:USDJPY ⚠️🚨 Risk warning, disclaimer: the above is a personal market judgment and analysis based on published information and historical chart data on The trading view, And only some of these analyzes are my actual real trades. I hope Traders consider I am Not responsible for your trades and investment decision. ✅ Please write any advice or suggestions.
Long
by Arash-RK
Joe Gun2Head Trade - AUDJPY correcting?Trade Idea: Selling AUDJPY Reasoning: Start of a C leg lower? Entry Level: 88.91 Take Profit Level : 87.60 Stop Loss : 89.35 Risk/Reward: 3:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Short
by Signal_Centre
USDJPY Outlook 11 April 2023With the overnight strength of the DXY, the USDJPY climbed steadily to the upside, as the price approached the 134 round number resistance area. Weakness in the Japanese Yen was also compounded by the statement from the new BoJ Governor Ueda, indicating that large scale monetary easing policy will continue. This was in contrary to the market anticipation that Governor Ueda could trim back on easing. While the USDJPY retraces from the resistance level, look for the price to bounce from either the 23.60% fib level which is also the 133 round number level, or more likely at the 132.60 price level which is the 38.20% fib level and the upward trendline providing support. Further upside on the USDJPY could see the price climb steadily toward the 135 key resistance level.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
3-bar bullish reversal on USD/JPYAfter an extended pullback on the USD/JPY daily chart, we think it is time for the pair to revert higher. A bullish divergence formed with the RSI (2) and a bullish pinbar formed on after a failed attempt to break below 130. Being a round number, there's reasonable chance of demand down at that level, and yesterday's up day is part of a 3-day bullish reversal (Morning Star). - The bias remains bullish above Friday's low, although bulls could seek bullish setups on lower timeframes if prices pull back towards Friday's high - or wait for a break of yesterday's high to assume bullish continuation. - An initial target is around the 38.2% Fibonacci ratio / 133 handle - A Second target could be around the monthly pivot / 200-day EMA / 50% retracement level
Long
by CityIndex
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSJapanese yen strength over time. While the yen underperformed during the global monetary tightening phase, in our view the currency will likely outperform as tightening cycles eventually come to an end and central banks turn to easing. Yen outperformance over time should also be supported by U.S. recession in H2-2023 as well as recent actions by the Fed, which have made U.S. dollar liquidity more readily available. And while the likelihood of a hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy shift has perhaps diminished a little, if the global financial sector proves surprisingly resilient, the risk of a further policy adjustment from the BoJ could still reinforce the outlook for yen gains over the medium term as well.
by thunderpips