FX Opportunities 2nd MarchWow! As we forecast yesterday, the market is shaping up incredibly.
Today we have brought in some £ pairs as we have some very high probability trades that could be forming. These would be textbook, low risk set ups.
Also a small lesson on NZD/JPY for us all to learn from myself included which I feel could take so many losses off the table for people.
Rushing positions will not help at this point. Be patient and know what to look for. Good luck!
Yen
USDJPYHi
USDJPY has been examined in different dimensions:
1- Strong supply and demand levels that I identify with my own indicator and system.
2- The structure of recently formed waves
3- Current market momentum
4- The structure of classical and price patterns
In this idea, I identified the direction of the market in different ways and in the second step, I analyzed the potential of continuation or reversal. Usually, paying attention to the trend and strength of the trend can greatly increase the accuracy of the analysis.
In general, I tried to describe the continuation of the movement in the simplest possible way in the diagram.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is a personal opinion and you are responsible for any trading decisions.
Joe Gun2Head Trade - CHFJPY facing stiff resistance on dailyTrade Idea: Selling CHFJPY
Reasoning: At resistance on the daily. Possibly forming a top on the 60min.
Entry Level: 144.92
Take Profit Level: 142.52
Stop Loss: 145.23
Risk/Reward: 8.43:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
GBPJPY: Classic Trend Following 🇬🇧🇯🇵
GBPJPY remains very bullish from the beginning of the year.
After the last impulsive movement, the market retraced to a peculiar confluence zone.
I see a perfect match between 0.5 retracement of the last bullish leg and a horizontal structure support.
I will expect a pullback from that to 165.0 / 165.7
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USDJPY - long-term viewMy wag we'll see a diagonal in JPY where wave (3) and a of (4) are complete, next few months will take to finish wave b and c of (4). I'd expect another move up in a zig-zag fashion to new highs. That would either be completion of a larger wave C of an irregular flat or wave 1 of the larger degree. Time will tell.
EURJPY ForecastWe have two potential scenarios for the EURJPY. Unfortunately, none of them will give is a good trading opportunity in the short term.
Scenario A
The corrective cycle that started in October 2022 is not over, and we will see another wave down before ending wave 2 in the primary degree (green)
What to do in scenario A?
In this scenario, when the price reaches the green Inflection zone, we will buy EURJPY
Scenario B
This corrective cycle ended on January 2023, and we have already started wave 3 in the primary degree.
What to do in scenario B?
The EURJPY will need to break the highs created on October 2022 before looking for buying opportunities in a shorter time frame cycle.
In conclusion, in the short term, we do not expect that EURJPY can provide us with good trading opportunities. We will continue analysing it for you and updating you accordingly if the market structure changes
Please remember to do not to risk more than 2% of your account on each trading idea
Joe Gun2Head Trade - USDJPY Stalling as 5th wave completes?Trade Idea: Selling USDJPY
Reasoning: USDJPY Stalling as 5th wave completes?
Entry Level: 136.725
Take Profit Level: 135.36
Stop Loss: 137.05
Risk/Reward: 3.5:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Looking for a bullish breakout from USD/JPY's consolidationA bullish engulfing candle formed on Friday thanks to a hot US inflation report. The fact that incoming BOJ governor Ueda delivered a dovish message at his confirmation hearing simply adds to our bullish conviction on USD/JPY.
Prices are now consolidating on the 1-hour timeframe, so we'd welcome any pullback towards the weekly pivot point to consider long setups, with the next bullish target sitting around the weekly R1 pivot (137.30). The OBV remains elevated to suggest the rally has been supported by bullish volume, so we're also on guard for a bullish breakout from the current consolidation.
Yen traders look for opportunity as BOJ gains new leader The new governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, is currently in the spotlight as traders attempt to determine how closely he will adhere to his predecessor's ultra-loose monetary policies. Despite inflation in Japan reaching a 40-year high, Japanese interest rates have remained unchanged, causing the yen to weaken considerably over the past year. In his confirmation hearings, Ueda has offered some mild criticism of the current ultra-loose policy, but has not been explicit or specific, in order to avoid limiting his options when he takes full control of the Bank. However, Ueda has also noted that "It is appropriate for the Bank of Japan to continue monetary easing while continuing to devise ways to respond to the current situation," and that his predecessor's policies were "unavoidable".
Due to the ambiguity in Ueda's speeches, trading opportunities may arise in JPY pairs that could be unleashed once the situation becomes clearer. Many market watchers believe that Ueda will be more "flexible" and plans to enact some "policy lurches" in the future after settling into his role. This was the initial thought among traders when Ueda's surprise nomination made headlines in early February, causing a slight spike in the yen. However, the impact on currency markets was short-lived, and the US dollar has continued to climb, notching greater and greater yearly highs. The next two significant hurdles for the pair to overcome are 136.500 and 137.500.
Upon parliamentary approval this week, Ueda will assume the position on April 8, 2023, but his public addresses will be closely monitored leading up to this time. Furthermore, investors will examine past comments, including those from his 2005 memoir, "Fighting Zero Interest Rates," regarding his previous seven-year tenure on the Bank of Japan's policy board.
USDJPY: Bulls May Push Higher 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Update for my Friday's post on USDJPY.
The price managed to close above a solid resistance cluster.
It turned into a support now.
Bullish rally will most likely continue.
Next resistance - 137.8
Wait for an occasional retest of a broken structure for safer entries.
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Bullish on USDJPYI've been very bullish on the USDJPY (sustained yen weakness combined with US dollar strength)
A couple of conditions have led to this bullishness
1) Got interested; price broke above the downward trendline
2) First confirmation; price broke above the 23.60% Fibonacci level (133 price level)
Now I'll be additionally bullish if the price breaks above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which could bring the target level of 142.20 within sight (this also aligns with the 61.8% fib level)
Now to watch if BoJ Governor Nominee Ueda makes any drastic changes. No changes to the monetary policy could support further upside moves on the USDJPY
USDJPY: Important Breakout & Bullish Continuation 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY broke and closed above a solid horizontal supply zone on a daily.
The price formed a high momentum bullish candle, confirming the breakout.
The broken structure turned into support.
I will expect a bullish continuation.
Next resistance - 137.75
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USDJPY: Increase expected but watch end of week JPY FundamentalsAs we see the DXY continue to push up thanks to the fundamentals and potent9ial for a 0.5% rate hike, I'm expecting this pair to continue to push up.
Key fundamentals out of Japan this week with inflation data on Thursday, there's also a speech on Friday by incoming Governor Ueda, not expecting policy comment, but if we get some it will likely have an impact on USD and JPY pairs.
Depending on the DXY this week, and some weakness I'm expecting to continue for JPY based on JPYWCU, I'd expect we may reach the 137.5 region / where the 50MA and 100MA look about to cross, and then a drop / retracement.
We saw a bearish pinbar on the daily on Friday, which does suggest a drop first, however I think this could be misleading due to the USD sell-off on Friday ahead of the long weekend.
I'll be getting in with a bullish indicator on a LTF, and then out around 137 or end of day Thursday (ahead of the JPY CPI), whichever comes first.
Whatever I expect volatility at the end of the week for this pair, it could drop very quickly with the fundamentals so I'll trade carefully and book profits!
USDJPY: Waiting For a Breakout 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY is testing a solid horizontal daily resistance.
If the price breaks and closes above 134.5 - 135.5 area,
it will push the market much higher.
The next goal for buyers will be 137.6 level.
I will post an update on Monday in case of a confirmed violation.
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