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USDJPY Short or Long?After an initial bearish setup and a short trade closed at 2.5 RR, the market is now showing signs of resistance around 137.70. At this point, I have identified a potential demand zone, which is an area where the price could bounce before continuing its downward trend. However, this zone could also act as a strong resistance before we see the price go even lower. That's why, in case of a short trade, I have set a target price of 132.20. Let me know what you think in the comments. Have a nice trading day!
by EdgeTradingJourney
AUD/JPY 3-wave rally stalls at resistanceA 3-wave rally has stalled at the 200-day EMA with a bearish Pinbar. This begs the question as to whether we've seen the end of an ABC correction and the cross is to now break to new lows. Perhaps. But over the near-term, yen strength is favoured due to sticky inflation data from Japan, rumours that the BOJ are considering tweaking their YCC band later this year and a slight risk-off tone due to concerns over tighter liquidity and the US debt ceiling. - The bias remains bearish beneath 90.25 - Next target is around the lows near 89.00
Short
by CityIndex
Potential swing trade on NZD/JPYA soft inflation report from New Zealand weighed broadly on the Kiwi dollar yesterday, as traders began to price in the prospects of a 25bp hike (down form 50bp) or even a pause at the RBNZ's next meeting. The slight risk-off tone saw flows into the yen, and risk-currencies such as AUD and NZD were lower which has placed ZD/JPY on our shirt watchlist. The cross has seen repeated failures to close above 83.50 over the past three weeks, and yesterday's high met resistance perfectly at the 200-day EMA. Given the bearish engulfing candle which has now formed, we suspect a leg lower seems more probably than a break higher. Also note the decisive close beneath trend support. - The bias remains bearish beneath yesterday's high - However, we'll seek bearish setups below/around 83.15 (50% retracement of yesterday's open-close range) - Initial target is the cycle just above 82.0
Short
by CityIndex
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSThe dollar is expected to fall and the yen rise in April. Risk aversion prevailed in March on credit concerns about US regional banks and a major European bank, with the dollar/yen pair trading with a heavy topside to drop below 130 yen. Excessive concerns about the US financial system then eased on news that some regional banks would be bought out, so the dollar was bought again. However, the pair’s rally was quite muted compared to its rally towards 135 yen after the release of the US February consumer price index (CPI) data. With President Biden also saying the banking crisis was still not over, it seems this rally was merely due to a slight withdrawal of ‘excessive concerns,’ with investors still worried that tougher banking regulations might act as a new risk-off factor. Furthermore, though FRB chair Jerome Powell has said he envisages one more rate hike this year, the markets are split evenly when it comes to pricing in another hike, so it seems there are concerns about the negative impact of tightening on the financial environment. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will also be meeting to set policy for the first time under its new structure at the end of April. Most observers believe the BOJ will stick to the status quo for now, but it is also possible the BOJ might announce a policy shift. The Japanese March CPI data is also set for release on April 21. If this points to stronger-than-expected inflationary pressures, a policy tweak/shift will become a more realistic possibility. Investors are starting to focus on FRB rate hikes, so if a BOJ policy shift does seem more likely, market participants will then focus on a future shrinkage of Japanese/US interest-rate differentials. Based on the above, it seems the dollar/yen pair will be susceptible to more downward pressure in April. However, the US also released some firm economic indicators in March. Inflationary pressures also remain high, as evinced by a comment by a FRB official that “inflation is still too high.” US interest rates rose and the dollar was bought at the start of March on hawkish comments by FRB chair Jerome Powell. Controlling inflation remains the FRB’s number one priority. With Mr. Powell also commenting that “the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated,” some observers believe it is too early to start talking about rate cuts. With concerns about the financial system smoldering away, market participants will be focusing on comments by FRB officials ahead of the May FOMC meeting as they try to gauge the direction of monetary policy.
by thunderpips
4
USD/JPY set to extend Friday's rally?A divergent them is in play between the Fed and BOJ which could help it recover some more of last week's losses. BOJ governor Ueda reiterated the central bank's ultra-dovish stance whilst US 1-year consumer inflation expectations spikes 0.8% pct point and the Fed's Waller delivered his latest hawkish remarks (inflation remains too high and we've not done enough to fight it). A bullish engulfing candle formed on Friday, making a potential swing low around its YTD low and monthly S1 pivot point. The OBV (on balance volume) has broken to a new cycle high ahead of price action to suggest bulls have the upper hand. - The bias is for a move to the 134.50 resistance zone, a break above which brings 135 into focus. - If prices pull back, we'd look for evidence of a swing low between 133.20/50 around the weekly and monthly pivot points - This could also incre4ase the potential reward to risk ratio
Long
by CityIndex
USDJPY: What to Look At This Week 🇺🇸🇯🇵 Since USDJPY reached an important structure low in March, the market is correcting. The pair is accumulating around a key horizontal resistance cluster. Look for a bullish breakout of 134.06. A daily candle close above that will confirm a violation. A bullish continuation will be expected at least to 135.0 level then. I will post an update after a breakout confirmation. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
5
USDJPY: Your Trading Plan For Next Week 🇺🇸🇯🇵 I see important bullish accumulation signs on USDJPY. The price keeps setting multiple higher lows, perfectly respecting a solid horizontal resistance and setting equal highs on that. I will expect a breakout attempt of the underlined structure next week. If the price breaks and closes above 134.06 level, it will confirm a violation. A bullish continuation will be expected then at least to 135 level. I will post an update once the breakout is confirmed. Good luck next week. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
9
Weekly Momentum On Major Pairs (Week 16/2023) First Thing First: This analysis is for “general overview only” as it is solely based on price action. That’s why it is called momentum analysis in the first place. Support/Resistant, Volume Macro view nor any other factors are not used during write up. Refer to the individual pair analysis for a more comprehensive write up. XXX/USD: Mixed Gold & Silver: Mixed XXX/JPY: Very Bullish Stock Indexes: Mixed BitCoin: Very Bullish WK 16 (15 Apr 2023)
by SonicDeejay
USD/JPY pulls back towards support cluster around 133USD/JPY has pulled back from the April high, yet the strong bullish structure of the 1-hour chart suggests it can try to break to a new cycle high. Today’s low has found support at the 20-hour EMA and April 4th high. And volumes are now trending higher, and a bullish pinbar on higher volumes suggests demand above 133, which is just beneath the daily pivot point. • The bias is bullish above 133 and for a break above the April high • The initial target is the daily pivot point, just below 134.50 • A second target to consider is the R pivot, around the daily R2
by CityIndex
USDJPY Outlook 13 April 2023The USDJPY trades along the 133 support level and could see further downside as the DXY continues to weaken. However with the continual divergence in monetary policy between the US Federal Reserve and the BoJ, a rebound to the upside is likely to always be on the cards. If the USDJPY breaks strongly below 133 (and more crucially below 132.70) the price could trade down to 132. Looking for a possible test and rebound from the 132 round number support level
Short
by JinDao_Tai