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USD/JPY BEAR SWING RETRACEMENTUSD/JPY bear swing was absolutely beautiful, but we are not done yet Usdjpy has a looooong way to drop still, the impending US recession is not going to be pretty and the moment the market gets a single whiff of hawkish-ness from the BoJ, this pair will sink to the bottom of the ocean like ATLANTIS In the mean time however it looks as though the bear swing has run out of some steam, and a healthy retracement is in store. Fundamentally DADDY JPOW just raised the US rates by 25 basis points, which in all likelihood will bring some short term support to the dumpy dollar. Either ride USDJPY to the Yellow or Green zones, depending on how strong momentum and price action is.
Long
by NakedTrading4U
2
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSWhile the yen underperformed during the global monetary tightening phase, in our view the currency will likely outperform as tightening cycles eventually come to an end and central banks turn to easing. Yen outperformance over time should also be supported by U.S. recession as well as recent actions by the Fed, which have made U.S. dollar liquidity more readily available. And while the likelihood of a hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy shift has perhaps diminished a little, if the global financial sector proves surprisingly resilient, the risk of a further policy adjustment from the BoJ could still reinforce the outlook for yen gains over the medium term as well.
by thunderpips
1
USDJPY Outlook 28 March 2023*slightly messy chart* Mistakenly used this analysis profile during the live stream, but it still presents several very valid points. Yesterday the USDJPY was trading higher bouncing off the 130.60 price level, and climbing steadily to the 131.70 price level, despite the consolidation on the DXY. The 131.70 price level was crucial as it coincided with - 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level - bearish trendline - formation of the inverted head and shoulder pattern With the anticipation for a resumption of weakness on the DXY, we were looking for the price to reverse from the bearish trendline to trade back down to the 129.80 price level, with a slight hesitation at 130.60. At the current price level, with the USDJPY sitting above 130.60, a continuation to the downside can be expected, especially if the DXY continues to weaken. Look for the price to retest the key support level of 129.80. Although the next support level is at 128.15 (last tested in February) it is unlikely that the price could reach this level by today.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
1
USDJPY Outlook 27 March 2023Initial expectation was for the USDJPY to break below the 130 support level and trade significantly to the downside, with the next key support level at 128.13. However, on Friday, the DXY recovered in strength which saw the USDJPY bounce from the 130 support level to trade up toward the 131 interim resistance level. While the bearish trendline continues to apply downward pressure on the USDJPY, look for price to break above 131 to climb toward 132 which would coincide with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level and the bearish trendline. However, any moves to the upside could be brief with the USDJPY likely to continue trading lower, toward the 130 and 128 key support levels.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
1
$USDJPY YEN rollover Q2! LONG YENThis is not a test!!! Yen is going to gain maximum strength in the next 90 days during the 2nd QTR. I cannot legally say as to why but the hunch is strong. Looking for a soft rollover to close the month around 130 flat (3/31/23) Q2 2022 we saw a major short begin on Yen pairs (USDJPY 122-150!) We are now seeing the retracing PLUS to create a very strong Japanese economy. THIS SHORT CAN GO ALL THE WAY TO 115! That is how overbought UJ is as a pair. The Weekly + monthly shows this slow retrace gaining traction. My FAV is USDJPY and GBPJPY both looking to short. 130.4 is a good entry to prepare for Q2. This can be volatile as many US trading platforms heavily short Yen as a makeshift safe haven. 133.5 can invalidate this short sell. TP1: 125.1 TP2: 122.1 TP3: 117.2 ****NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE****
Short
by chestephens1
USD/JPY REMAINS HEAVILY BEARISH,LOWEST LEVEL SINCE FEBRUARY 10For the third consecutive day, USD/JPY is experiencing heavy selling pressure, pushing the pair lower. The anticipation of a hawkish shift by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is increasing demand for the Japanese Yen, thus contributing to the downward trend. However, some follow-through USD buying may offer some support to the pair, helping to limit further losses. During the first half of the European session on Friday, the USD/JPY pair extended its rejection slide from the 133.00 level earlier this week, and the spot prices dropped to their lowest point since February 10th. The bears are now looking to push the pair further below the psychological level of 130.00. Japan's consumer prices rose at their fastest pace since 1982 in February, and the Japanese Yen strengthened across the board in response to the domestic data. Specifically, Japan's core-core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices but includes alcoholic beverages, accelerated to 3.5% YoY, marking the fastest increase in 41 years. This has increased the likelihood of the Bank of Japan adjusting its bond yield control policy in the near future, which would benefit the domestic currency and continue to push the USD/JPY pair lower. Bearish traders have also taken cues from a further decline in US Treasury bond yields. This decrease in yields is led by the Federal Reserve signaling that it may soon pause its rate-hiking cycle due to the recent banking sector turmoil. As a result, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond and the rate-sensitive two-year Treasury note are hovering near a six-month low reached earlier this week. This further narrows the US-Japan rate differential, which is another factor driving flows towards the JPY and contributing to the heavily offered tone surrounding the USD/JPY pair.
Short
by FOREXN1
4
USDJPY Outlook 24th March 2023The USDJPY continues to trade lower, as the price maintains within the bearish channel. Following the weakness of the DXY from the FOMC decision, the USDJPY reversed strongly from the 133 price level to trade down to the current price level and key support level of 130. If the DXY continues to weaken, look for the USDJPY to break below the immediate support level of 130 to trade down to the next support level of 128, which aligns with the lower bound of the bearish channel. However, as prices reach toward levels last tested in February, anticipate significant choppy price action
Short
by JinDao_Tai
USDJPY Fundamental Analysis | 03/23/23On Thursday, the Japanese stock market experienced a decline as the Nikkei 225 Index fell by 0.17% to close at 27,420 points, and the broader Topix Index dropped by 0.29% to 1,957 points. This reversal was due to Wall Street's negative trend, following the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that there will not be any rate cuts this year, and if needed, rates may rise higher than expected. This decision affected financial stocks as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen informed lawmakers that the US government was not planning to provide a "blanket insurance" for bank deposits. Moreover, Japanese manufacturers remained pessimistic for the third consecutive month in March due to concerns about slowing global growth, which could affect the country's export-heavy industries. As a result, financial, healthcare, and technology stocks experienced losses, with Mitsubishi UFJ (-1.4%), Takeda Pharmaceutical (-2.6%), and Keyence (-1.6%) being among the hardest hit. The Japanese yen strengthened to 131 per dollar, the highest in 5 weeks following the US Federal Reserve's rate hike decision. During the press conference, Fed Chair Powell explained that the pause in hiking rates was to address the banking crises. On the domestic front, the Bank of Japan's minutes from its January meeting indicated that members reiterated the need to maintain ultra-easy policies to achieve the 2% inflation target in a sustainable and stable manner. In this regard, the BOJ left its policy of ultra-low interest rates unchanged this month at Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's final policy meeting before his retirement. Looking ahead, Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expect the Japanese Stock Market Index to trade at 27,279.95 points by the end of this quarter and 24,842.68 in 12 months time. Additionally, the Japanese Yen is expected to trade at 137.83 by the end of this quarter and 146.74 in 12 months time.
Short
by TayFx
The story of a hawk and a dove in GBPJPYHey everyone. Welcome back to another forecast, this time on GBPJPY. This will be for the future outlook of GJ and where it can possibly head to. BOE hiked rates by 50 bps in its previous monetary meeting and market has priced in a 25bps rate hike in today's monetary policy meeting of March. However, the story of the hawk does not end here as its latest CPI y/y printed whopping 10.4% compared to a 9.9% forecasted. This really shows the stubbornness of the inflation that the POUND is facing. This makes their upcoming meeting a complicated one and the market could potentially price in a 50bps hike instead. This paves the way for more rate hikes if inflation were to remain sticky and stubborn. A hawk remains a hawk to come for the coming months. On the other side of the universe, BOJ has remained through to their stance and stuck by with a -0.1% short term interest rates and for 10 year bond yields at 0% during its month of March. It remains steadfast in its approach and the interest rate differential between POUND and YEN cannot be missed. JPY's inflation has however been rising at a steady rate, with the latest printing at 4.3%, yet it's widely expected that the BOJ remains dovish , especially after the multiple opportunities to hike rates but deciding against them. In my opinion, the story of the hawk and the dove continues to be the case for the upcoming weeks in GBPJPY and that is one of the reasons I believe that GJ is a bull story. On a technical front, I believe price can continue up to create a newer high and flirt the highs at 165. The BOE's monetary policy will be key to seeing if the hawk shall continue flying well above the dove. Long story short, GBPJPY bulls . Let's see.
Long
by Jon_Jones_Junior
GBPJPY Potential Forecast | 23rd March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. GBP inflation came out strong and paves way for more hawkishness from the BOE and rate hikes. 2. JPY continues to be the dove. Technical Confluences 1. Price is currently on a higher timeframe bullish trend 2. Price could tap on the H4 resistance above (red zone) 3. Price have cleared the previous daily low Idea Looking for the price to head towards the H4 resistance at 166.04. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Long
by OlympusLab