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USD/JPY H4 | Strong bullish uptrendUSD/JPY is trading close to the intersection between an ascending trendline and a pullback support; it could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 149.39 which is a pullback support that intersects with an ascending trendline. Stop loss is at 148.30 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support. Take profit is at 150.86 which is a pullback resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
2
GBP/JPY H4 | Approaching multi-swing-high resistanceGBP/JPY is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 195.32 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. Stop loss is at 196.14 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level and a swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 193.63 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
1
USD/JPY H4 | Potential RSI Bearish DivergenceUSD/JPY is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 149.27 which is a swing-high resistance. Stop loss is at 151.00 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 147.17 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
USD/JPY eyes break of 150 and 200-day MA retestThe recovery from 140 has been nothing short of impressive. The daily RSI is confirming the rising prices on the daily chart, and momentum suggests USD/JPY wants to head for the 200-day MA around the 151 handle. There are some concerns that that inflation could pick up due to the hot NFP report, so we may find that pre-emptive bets prompt a break of the August high to bring 150 into focus. Even if prices retrace lower first, dips are preferred and the bias is for an eventual move to 151.
Long
by CityIndex
GBPJPY H4 - Short Signal GBPJPY H4 For those that watched the market analysis and live charting video, you would have seen us discuss GBPJPY and the 195 psychological price/sell zone. We have since seen this zone tested and subsequently rejected. How much mileage this setup has... I don't know, but if we can break 194.500, we should see a send lower. A break and candle close around or below 194.500 is important, breaking this H4 and H1 consolidation, EUR and LON session could certainly be enough to drive this setup where is needs to go.
Short
by Trade_Simple_FX
1
CHFJPY in important resistance area; yen to strengthen?CHFJPY in important resistance area on daily chart; yen to strengthen? The Swiss franc and Japanese yen currency pair (CHFJPY) has maintained a steady uptrend on the daily chart since 2020, consistently trading above the 200-period Moving Average. However, in September, CHFJPY dipped below the SMA200 for the first time, signaling a potential increase in selling pressure and indicating a stronger appreciation of the yen against the franc. This yen appreciation aligns with Japan’s recent shift in monetary policy – the Bank of Japan had kept interest rates in negative territory since 2016. On July 31, Japan raised its key interest rate for the second time in 2024, bringing it to 0.25%. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has consecutively lowered interest rates during its last three meetings. Technical indicators point to potential downward pressure on CHFJPY From a technical perspective, after breaking below the SMA200 on the daily chart, CHFJPY retested it from below, suggesting that the SMA200 may now act as a level of resistance. The price also reached the 50% retracement level of the bearish Fibonacci on the daily chart, which could serve as potential resistance. A double top pattern is also forming in the same Fibonacci region. From a technical standpoint, a confluence of factors can be seen: 1. The SMA200 was broken, previously acting as support, and could now serve as resistance. 2. A retracement to the 50% level of the bearish Fibonacci, which could also act as resistance. 3. A double top forming on the daily chart. From a macroeconomic perspective, the following is affecting CHFJPY: 1. A shift in Japan’s monetary policy with two interest rate hikes this year. 2. Monetary easing in Switzerland – the SNB has cut the policy rate three times in 2024. It currently stands at 1% – the lowest level since early 2023. These factors create a context where a potential short opportunity could become more apparent if the price breaks below 171.30. If that occurs, CHFJPY could decline to the 167.10 level within a few days, where it may encounter some support. Disclaimer: 76.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
Short
by Marketscom
6j Yen Short SwingsI have been watching the Yen carefully since July. This upswing has provided a healthy reset but current price action represents the tide turning back to the short side which fundamentally supports Japans struggle to maintain currency value. The risk/reward makes sense to me and I'm actively watching for swing shorts with .006700 target. The daily chart is presenting a great entry point as old support now becomes resistance. I'll post the entry if/when it's made. Timeline is before November (US Elections)
CME:6J1!Short
by GrayTrader01
USDJPY still has more downside on daily & weekly tfStructurally I'm looking for rejection at 147-149.8 range. Look for renewed selling action below 144 to confirm. Still seeing additional unwinding of the yen carry trade as highly likely over subsequent days & weeks. Targeting 136, 131, and 126 handles on weekly structure as we approach Q1 of 2025. Particularly as the US Federal Reserve is pressured to cut rates further with recent data. Entering short positions gradually but the majority is already in place.
by DaveTradesLive
USD/JPY H1 | Potential bearish breakoutUSD/JPY has reacted off an overlap resistance and broken below the lower trendline of the bullish channel; price could potentially drop lower from here. Sell entry is at 144.06 (sell at market). Stop loss is at 144.80 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance. Take profit is at 142.88 which is an overlap support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
GBPJPY H8 - Short SignalGBPJPY H8 We have a nice setup here yet again, with our crosshairs on that 193 handle for GBPJPY. Last weeks price movement on Friday was wild, to say the least, over the eastern session we took off 100's of points, before closing the day down towards 190 price. 600 points from top to bottom we saw, from the likes of ***JPY, this was very impressive! With the exception of the fakeout to the upside, albeit it headline driven, we have now seen a subsequent correction, which takes us back towards that 193.000 handle, a confluence zone and an area we could look to sell. Stops would be around 50 points at 193.500 covering recent highs, and take profit targets would be every 100 points.
Short
by Trade_Simple_FX
USDJPY - Short Trade Idea This is a short trade idea on the USDJPY pair. Recently, we traded into a 4M and 11M BISI, had a nice reaction to a Premium Array, now we had a breakdown again. Because of the Japanese Central Bank's decision to increase interest rates, I am expecting price to take a further nose dive. I have 2 targets based on my profit-taking criteria. 1st is the swing low as a Discount Array, and 2nd/final target is a 2D BISI below some relative equal lows. Depending on where price closes today, I would be anticipating price to trade back up into a 2D iFVG that was a previous R2F signature BISI on the 2D timeframe. Safest stoploss before invalidating the trade is at the swing high before the sudden dump at Japan election news. Let's see! - R2F
Short
by Road_2_Funded
Hedging Yen amid bullish Nikkei outlook? The Nikkei-225 is trading near 40,000 once more. The sharp decline in early August due to the BoJ rate hike has been swiftly reversed. The outlook for the Nikkei remains bullish with continued investor interest driven by market reforms as well as foreign investor interest. With the BoJ currently on pause and signalling no urgency to raise rates further, the Nikkei appears poised to retest its all-time high set in July. However, the significant influence of monetary policy on the Yen makes it advantageous to hedge a Nikkei position with a long Yen position. This approach offers similar upside potential while reducing downside risk. BOJ ON HOLD FOLLOWING FALLOUT FROM RATE HIKE The BoJ decided to maintain rates at 0.25% during its September 20 meeting. Their statement indicated that the economy is on a recovery path aligned with the BoJ's mandate, upgrading its assessment of consumption from a "resilient trend" in July to a "moderate increasing trend." Governor Ueda noted that the recent yen strengthening is reducing inflationary pressures, signalling positive trends for the economy in line with the BoJ's mandate. During the September 20 meeting, he reiterated that the BoJ would not raise rates amid market instability, which they attribute to recession risks in the U.S. This cautious approach likely results from the fallout after the BoJ raised rates to a 15-year high at its July 31 meeting. This decision triggered a sharp yen appreciation and a significant unwind of the yen carry trade, leading to a global decline in equities fuelled by fear. The Nikkei-225 dropped over 20% in the following week, erasing all gains made in 2024. MARKET STABILITY ANOTHER CONCERN FOR BOJ The BoJ's policy mandate focuses on achieving sustainable economic growth through wage growth and consumption while maintaining a stable 2% inflation rate. Under Governor Ueda's leadership, the BoJ aims for a neutral policy rate that is neither overly restrictive nor too accommodative, indicating that rates must increase from their current excessively loose levels. However, following the market reaction to the July 31 policy meeting, the BoJ faces an additional mandate: balancing its monetary policy trajectory with the risks of market volatility and its effects on business stability. This additional mandate introduces a complex variable into the BoJ’s monetary policy balancing act, making it prudent for the BoJ to wait and assess the effects of policy changes. As Governor Ueda stated during the policy announcement, "We can afford to spend some time in making a policy decision." The BoJ has two remaining policy meetings scheduled for 2024: October 30 and December 18. Following Governor Ueda's recent statement highlighting risks from market volatility, analysts unanimously agreed that September policy meeting would not result in a hike but majority still expect another hike by the end of the year. With the recent encouraging inflation prints, BoJ has room to hike rates towards the end of the year. PAUSE RATHER THAN HALT The decision to maintain rates may signal a pause rather than a halt to rate hikes. Governor Ueda indicated in an August parliamentary hearing that the BoJ would continue to raise rates if economic data aligns with expectations. With inflation around the target range, BoJ has room to raise rates further. Additionally, the recent election concluded with Shigeru Ishiba becoming the next Prime Minister. The former defense minister has backed the BoJ's rate hike strategy and expressed concerns about yen depreciation. His leadership may foster political support for further rate increases in Japan. Finally, recession fears in the US are subsiding with recent jobs data and GDP figures above expectations. This may help ease market instability concerns for the BoJ. JAPAN EQUITIES REMAIN COMPELLING, ATTRACTING INFLOWS Japan equities remain compelling for foreign investors. The TSE’s recent market reforms have led to a material improvement in the firm’s balance sheets with higher utilization of capital in the form of both returns to shareholders and capital expenditure. Furthermore, Japan equities remains undervalued despite the massive improvement in valuations this year. While, the P/B ratio for Nikkei-225 has increased from 1.75 to 1.93 over the past year, the P/E ratio has remained largely unchanged at 20.88 (compared to 19.38 last year). The much unchanged P/E ratio reflects the strong earnings growth despite the 23% rally in the index. The potential undervaluation has attracted global value investors including Warren Buffet. Warren Buffet has built up large positions in Japanese trading houses with the value totalling nearly USD 25 billion as of 12/June. Buffet has previously opted to increase stakes in these investments when they traded at P/E similar to the level during the downturn in August. Furthermore, YTD inflows into Nomura Nikkei 225 Fund (NTETF) have totalled USD 891 million. While the fund is only available OTC in the US, it is one of the largest Japan equity ETF with USD 71 billion in AUM. Notably, inflows into the ETF have been concentrated after large declines this year suggesting investors are using decline in price to increase positions. CHINA STIMULUS ADDS FURTHER WIND IN NIKKEI SAILS The announcement of the massive stimulus package in China last week has supported most Asian equity markets with the rising tide of Chinese equities rippling through Japanese equities. As the positive sentiment in China continues, other Asian indices are likely to benefit too. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP The Nikkei-225 is supported by strong tailwinds including market reforms that support foreign investment and a positive sentiment in Asia equities. However, given the market reaction to the previous BoJ rate hike, monetary policy and Yen moves remain a pertinent concern for the Nikkei. Nikkei and Yen are inversely correlated. The correlation is particularly tight during periods of Nikkei decline. With the Yen remaining volatile from the impact of monetary policy, hedging a long position in Nikkei-225 with a long position in the JPYUSD is prudent. A combined position of being long on both the Nikkei-225 and the Yen has delivered similar gains to a long position in the Nikkei-225 over the past three months. However, the combined position has also offered crucial downside protection, outperforming during periods of market decline. The Yen remains on an uptrend, supported by both a weakening dollar from Fed rate cuts and a strengthening yen from BoJ rate hikes. A position consisting of long CME Nikkei (USD) futures can be combined with a position consisting of 2 x long CME Japanese Yen futures to roughly balance notional across both legs. Investors can also deploy 21 x long CME Micro JPY/USD futures to balance notional more closely. CME provides margin offset amounting to 35% as of 27/Sept for this trade which reduces margin requirements from USD 18,720 to USD 12,168. A hypothetical trade setup consisting of long 1 x CME Nikkei (USD) December futures and long 21 x CME Micro JPY/USD December futures offering reward to risk ratio of 1.43x is provided below. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:NKD1!Long
by mintdotfinance
7
USDJPY - Testing Support Level, Potential for a ReboundUSDJPY has arrived at a significant support zone and is currently retesting this level. While the support seems to be holding for now, the market sentiment still appears cautious. If we see further confirmation of a bounce, such as bullish candlestick patterns or increasing volume, there could be potential for upward movement. However, it's important to monitor the price action closely, as a breakdown below this level could invalidate the bullish outlook.
Long
by WaveRiders2
2
End of the week analysis27th September DXY: Price could trade higher to retest 100.90, if bearish trendline held, could trade back down to 100.55 NZDUSD: Buy 0.6290 SL 20 TP 40 AUDUSD: Buy 0.6905 SL 15 TP 50 GBPUSD: Sell 1.3290 SL 25 TP 75 (if support holds) Buy 1.3345 SL 30 TP 80 EURUSD: Sell 1.1090 SL 25 TP 80 USDJPY: Could range 143 to 144.50, Buy 145 SL 50 TP 200 USDCHF: Nothing for now USDCAD: Sell 1.3480 SL 25 TP 60 Gold: Could retrace down to 2640-2652 range, look for reaction there.
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai