Longterm Yen Bottom - Defensive PlayI think this is a major turning spot for equities/crypto/gold and people should pile into YEN. I think YCL (2x yen) or whatever other instrument you want to use bullish Yen is at an amazing longterm play here.
Yenlong
USD/JPY could be at the early stages of a reboundPicking inflection points is not for everyone. But taking into account the two months of heavy USD selling, disapproval of a 'strong yen' from the BOJ and arguably oversold USD/JPY, perhaps some bullish mean reversion is due.
We take a look at the monthly, daily and 4-hour charts to show key levels.
Macro Monday 60 ~ Japanese Yen Recession Signal Macro Monday 60
Japanese Yen Recession Signal
If you follow me on Trading view, you can revisit this chart at any time and press play to get the up to date data and see if we have hit any Yen recessionary trigger levels. Very handy to have at a glance.
The Chart
The chart illustrates how the Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar has followed a similar trajectory as the U.S. Unemployment Rate. The chart demonstrates that the Yen price has behaved in a particular way prior to recessions (red areas). You might be wondering how the Yen can offer insights into economic recessions and how they are linked;
1. Historically, the yen has strengthened during recessions due to the reduction of U.S. interest rates that typically coincides with recessions. When the U.S. Federal Reserve lowers rates, it makes the yen relatively more attractive to investors. With rate cuts highly likely in September 2024 the Japanese Yen is likely to see positive price action against the U.S. dollar.
2. The BOJ has historically intervened to prevent the Yen from becoming too strong. A strong yen negatively impacts Japan’s export-reliant economy. However, this trend shifted in 2022 when Tokyo stepped in to defend the Yen’s value. The BOJ bought Yen after expectations that other central banks would raise rates while the BOJ kept rates ultra-low.
3. In July 2024, the BOJ raised interest rates and signaled further policy tightening. Concerns about the historically weak yen also played a role (evident on the chart by the 30 year low in June 2024). This move, along with U.S. growth concerns, triggered an unwinding of carry trades (where investors borrow cheaply in yen to invest in higher-yielding assets), causing the yen to rebound against the dollar.
The chart along with the above three points are suggesting the Yen may be about to rise significantly in coming months versus USD. This direction of price for the Yen is consistent with the early signs of recession onset, in particular if the Yen increases in value by 22% to 42% (see below).
Japanese Yen vs U.S. Unemployment Rate
The blue numbers and corresponding blue box on the chart suggests that a sudden 22% – 42% increase in the Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar (from below the 0.008200 level) typically precedes recessions. This 22 – 42% increase in the yen is something we can look out for in combination with other recession charts we have in our current armory. See my most recent charts.
▫️ Above we discussed some macro-economic factors that suggest a high probability of the Yen ascending higher. The yen price also made a 30 year low in June 2024 and now appears to be breaking higher.
▫️ We now have levels on the chart to watch; the 22% level and the 42% level. In the event the Yen rises to these levels alongside the U.S. Unemployment Rate continuing to increase, this would significantly raise the probability of recession in subsequent months.
Summary
▫️ The chart captures how the Japanese Yen has followed a similar trajectory as the U.S. Unemployment Rate. When both move in unison up and to the right it typically isn’t a good sign for the economy.
▫️ A number of macro-economic factors suggest the Yen is about to increase e.g. Likely lowering of interest rates in the U.S will make the dollar more affordable to borrow and increase its supply weakening its strength whilst increasing the strength/value of the Yen.
▫️ The chart demonstrates that increases in Yen from below 0.008200 by 22% - 42% typically precede recessions. Theses levels are etched on the chart for you to monitor.
▫️ As the Yen price made a 30 year low in June 2024 and now appears to be breaking higher and with the addition of macro-economic events suggest a higher Yen, its now more important than ever to monitor the Yen and its historic recession trigger levels at 22% and 42%. These are on the chart for your convenience. You can revisit this chart at any time and press play to get the up to date data and see if we have hit any JPY recessionary trigger levels.
Japan Trade Opportunities
Given the higher probability that the Yen is increasing, this heightens the probability of recession, however it also means some Japanese stocks might offer a nice back end currency benefit over coming two years. Do you know any good Japanese Value stocks? If you do, be sure to share them below for some recession proof, back end currency promising trades.
As always, its been a pleasure
PUKA
Yen Alert: Unprecedented Option Trade on CMEThere's a pretty big reason to talk about the forecast for the yen's exchange rate. It's because of that big option trade that happened yesterday on the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange). These kind of transactions don't happen often with the yen, and this was the biggest one of the year so far.
Here's a chart of the nearest yen futures. It shows where the quotes are likely to move based on the type of options portfolio we talked about in this post.
In other words, the guy who owns this option portfolio is betting on the yen going up, or, if you look at the forex rates for USDJPY, he's betting on it going down.
We'll be watching both the rates and his portfolio closely. It looks like he knows what he's doing.
Yen Bulls Hedge Funds Reduce Short Bets with BOJ Intervention The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been a story of woe in 2024, weakening considerably against the US Dollar (USD) due to a widening interest rate gap between the two countries. However, a recent shift in sentiment is brewing, with hedge funds reducing their bearish bets on the Yen in a significant move.
Hedge Funds Cut Short Bets on Yen in Historic Move
According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), leveraged funds reduced their net short positions on the Yen by a staggering 38,025 contracts during the week ending July 16th. This marks the largest single-week reduction in short positions since March 2011, highlighting a potential turning point in the Yen's fortunes.
Despite this significant cutback, it's important to note that hedge funds remain net short on the Yen, holding a total of 76,588 short contracts. This indicates a cautious optimism, with some investors still hesitant to fully embrace a Yen rebound.
Intervention and Policy Shifts Fuel Yen's Rise
The retreat from short positions by hedge funds coincides with several developments that have bolstered the Yen. Most notably, the Japanese government is suspected of intervening in the currency market to support the Yen. Reports suggest that Japanese authorities spent a substantial JPY 5.64 trillion (approximately USD 35.8 billion) over two trading sessions to prop up the currency from near its weakest levels since the 1980s. This intervention likely played a significant role in halting the Yen's decline and triggering a rebound against the USD.
Beyond intervention, the Yen has also benefited from shifting expectations regarding US monetary policy. The Federal Reserve, which has been raising interest rates aggressively to combat inflation, may be nearing the peak of its tightening cycle. Increased expectations of a potential Fed rate cut in September have narrowed the interest rate gap between the US and Japan, making the Yen a more attractive proposition for some investors.
Trump's Comments Add Fuel to the Fire
Adding another layer of intrigue to the Yen's recent strengthening are comments from former US President Donald Trump. Trump, known for his unorthodox views on currency valuations, has reportedly criticized the weakness of the Yen. While his influence on markets is less pronounced than when he held office, his comments may have added a touch of uncertainty for USD bulls, potentially encouraging some to reduce their long positions.
A Tentative Rebound or a Long-Term Shift?
The recent developments surrounding the Yen paint a complex picture. While the reduction in short positions and the Yen's rebound are positive signs, it's too early to declare a definitive reversal. The overall direction of the Yen will likely hinge on several factors, including:
• Future Actions by the Bank of Japan (BOJ): The BOJ, unlike many central banks, has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy. Any indication of a potential shift towards tighter monetary policy could further bolster the Yen.
• The Trajectory of US Interest Rates: If the Fed continues with its aggressive rate hikes, the interest rate gap between the US and Japan will widen, putting downward pressure on the Yen.
• Global Risk Sentiment: The Yen is often seen as a safe-haven currency. If global economic uncertainty increases, investors may flock to the Yen, driving its value up.
Conclusion: A Yen in Flux
The Yen's recent strengthening and the reduction in short positions by hedge funds represent a potential turning point. However, the future trajectory of the Yen remains uncertain, dependent on a confluence of factors. Investors should closely monitor developments in both the Japanese and US economies, as well as broader market sentiment, to gauge the Yen's long-term prospects.
Retail Traders Poised for Yen Rebound - Consider Shorting USDJPYI am writing to bring to your immediate attention a critical development in the forex market that could present a significant trading opportunity.
As many of you are aware, the recent slide in the Japanese yen has been a point of concern. This depreciation has heightened the probability of Japan intervening in the market once more to stabilize its currency. Historical patterns suggest that such interventions can lead to rapid and substantial movements in the yen's value.
Currently, it appears that retail traders are reloading their bets in anticipation of a rebound in the yen. This collective action underscores a growing sentiment that the yen is poised for a recovery, potentially driven by governmental measures to curb its decline.
Given these circumstances, it may be prudent to consider positioning yourselves for this anticipated rebound. Specifically, shorting the USD/JPY could be a strategic move. By doing so, you could potentially capitalize on the yen's resurgence if Japan steps in to support its currency.
I urge you to review your portfolios and assess the potential benefits of shorting USD/JPY in light of the current market dynamics. As always, ensure that any trading decisions are made with careful consideration and risk management.
Stay vigilant and informed. The forex market is highly dynamic, and timely actions can make a significant difference.
Silent Samurai: Why Japan Keeps Mum on the Yen's Fate f JapanThe Japanese Yen has been on a rollercoaster ride recently, weakening against the US dollar. This has sparked concerns in Japan, but the government has remained tight-lipped on whether they've intervened to prop up the currency. This silence, some argue, is a strategic necessity in the face of a more dominant player: the US Federal Reserve.
Traditionally, governments use currency intervention – buying or selling their own currency – to influence exchange rates. A weaker yen can benefit Japanese exporters by making their goods cheaper overseas. However, a rapidly depreciating yen can also lead to inflation, hurting Japanese consumers.
So, why the silence from Japan? Here are some key reasons:
• The Power of the Fed: The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions have a massive impact on global currency markets. When the Fed raises interest rates, it strengthens the dollar as investors seek higher returns in US assets. This, in turn, weakens currencies like the yen. Japan's silence could be a way to acknowledge this reality. Publicly admitting intervention against the Fed's tightening stance might be seen as futile or even provocative.
• Preserving Intervention Ammunition: Currency intervention is expensive. It depletes a country's foreign reserves and can be ineffective in the long run if underlying economic conditions don't improve. By staying silent, Japan might be trying to keep the markets guessing about potential intervention. This uncertainty itself can sometimes deter speculators from further weakening the yen, achieving some effect without actually spending reserves.
• Signaling Commitment to Market Forces: Openly intervening can be seen as a lack of confidence in a market-driven exchange rate system. Japan might be prioritizing long-term economic stability by allowing the yen to find its natural level based on market forces, even if it's uncomfortable in the short term.
• Focus on Broader Economic Policy: The yen's weakness is just one piece of a complex economic puzzle. Japan's government might be prioritizing other measures to stimulate the economy, such as fiscal spending or structural reforms. Addressing these underlying issues could have a more lasting impact on the currency than short-term intervention.
However, the silence isn't without its critics. Some argue that a lack of transparency undermines market confidence. Additionally, if the yen weakens excessively, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might be forced into raising interest rates, contradicting its current ultra-loose monetary policy. This could create unwelcome economic disruptions.
What's Next for the Yen?
The future of the yen hinges on several factors, including:
• The Fed's Path: The pace and extent of the Fed's interest rate hikes will significantly influence the dollar-yen exchange rate. If the Fed slows down its tightening, the pressure on the yen could ease.
• Japan's Economic Performance: A stronger Japanese economy with signs of inflation could naturally lead to a yen appreciation.
• Intervention Decisions: While Japan might remain tight-lipped, any covert intervention could impact the market.
The coming months will be crucial for the yen. The silence from Japanese authorities might be a calculated strategy, but its effectiveness remains to be seen. Only time will tell if Japan can navigate these choppy currency waters and achieve a stable yen without sacrificing its broader economic goals.
Hedge Funds Bet on Yen Shorts as BOJ Reiterates InterventionHedge funds are betting big against the Japanese yen, driving short positions to their highest level since April 2022. This aggressive stance comes despite warnings from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) that it will intervene in the currency market again to defend the yen if necessary.
The data, compiled by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows a surge in net-short yen positions held by leveraged funds. This indicates a strong belief that the yen will continue to weaken. The yen has been under pressure for months due to a widening gap between Japanese and U.S. interest rates.
Why the Yen Short Bets?
Several factors are contributing to the bearish sentiment on the yen:
• Divergent Monetary Policy: The BOJ is maintaining its ultra-loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates near zero, while the U.S. Federal Reserve is aggressively raising rates to combat inflation. This interest rate differential makes yen-denominated assets less attractive to investors, weakening the currency.
• Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing war in Ukraine and heightened global uncertainty are driving investors towards safe-haven currencies like the U.S. dollar, further pressuring the yen.
• Intervention Concerns: The BOJ's previous intervention in the currency market in September 2022 to weaken the dollar and strengthen the yen proved to be temporary. The market's perception is that the BOJ may not be able to sustain continued intervention efforts, leading to renewed weakness in the yen.
Bank of Japan's Warning
The BOJ has reiterated its commitment to defending the yen and warned of further intervention if deemed necessary. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has emphasized the bank's resolve to maintain its current monetary policy stance, even as the yen weakens. However, analysts remain skeptical of the BOJ's ability to influence long-term currency trends, especially given the strong global forces pushing the yen lower.
Potential Impacts
The continued decline of the yen could have several consequences:
• Imported Inflation: A weaker yen makes imports more expensive, potentially fueling inflation in Japan.
• Corporate Profits: Export-oriented Japanese companies could benefit from a weaker yen as their products become more competitive globally.
• Investor Confidence: Continued weakness in the yen could erode investor confidence in the Japanese economy.
Looking Ahead
The future path of the yen is uncertain. The BOJ's resolve and ability to defend the currency will be closely watched. The direction of U.S. monetary policy and global economic conditions will also play a key role.
With substantial short bets placed by hedge funds, the yen remains vulnerable to further depreciation. The BOJ's warnings of intervention add another layer of complexity to the situation. The coming months will be crucial in determining the fate of the yen and its impact on the Japanese economy.
Ride the Wave of Yen Drop Against Dollar
As you may already know, the Japanese Yen has been experiencing a significant drop against the US Dollar due to the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) strategic move of buying bonds to curb the rising yield. This development has created a highly favorable environment for traders looking to long USDJPY and capitalize on this exciting trend.
The BOJ's proactive measures to slow down the rising yield have effectively weakened the Yen, creating an ideal scenario for traders seeking to profit from the currency pair's movement. This drop opens up a window of opportunity for those who are ready to take advantage of the situation and potentially reap substantial rewards.
Now, you might be wondering, "How can I seize this opportunity and maximize my profits?" Well, the answer lies in considering a long position on USDJPY! By going long on this currency pair, you position yourself to benefit from the Yen's decline against the Dollar. This trade could potentially yield remarkable returns if timed correctly.
So, what are you waiting for? Don't miss out on this thrilling chance to ride the wave of the Yen's drop against the Dollar! Take action now and consider opening a position to long USDJPY. With careful analysis, a well-executed strategy, and the right timing, you could be on your way to securing substantial profits.
Remember, timing is crucial in the world of trading, and this opportunity might not last forever. Stay ahead of the curve and make the most of the current market conditions. Embrace the excitement, seize the moment, and let your trading skills shine!
If you require any further information or assistance in making the most of this opportunity, please do not hesitate to reach out to our expert team. We are here to support you every step of the way.
Wishing you an exhilarating trading experience and remarkable success!
Yen Weakens against Dollar as BOJ Adjusts Monetary PolicyThe Japanese yen weakened beyond 151 against the mighty dollar, thanks to the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) recent adjustments to its monetary policy.
The winds of change are blowing in our favor, and it's time to seize this moment and take action! By going long on USDJPY, we can potentially capitalize on this favorable market trend and secure significant gains. The BOJ's limited adjustments to their monetary policy have created a fertile ground for us to explore and maximize our profits.
Why should you consider going long on USDJPY, you ask? Well, let me break it down for you:
1. BOJ's Monetary Policy Adjustments: The BOJ's recent tweaks to their monetary policy indicate a shift towards a more accommodative stance, which typically leads to a weaker yen. With the yen already breaching the 151 mark against the dollar, this provides an excellent opportunity to ride the wave of yen depreciation.
2. Favorable Dollar Strength: The US dollar has been flexing its muscles lately, exhibiting strength against various major currencies. By pairing it with the weakened yen, we have a powerful combination that can potentially amplify our gains.
3. Potential for Increased Volatility: As the yen weakens and the market reacts to the BOJ's policy adjustments, we can expect increased volatility in the USDJPY pair. For experienced traders like us, volatility often translates into profitable opportunities.
Now, it's time for action! Take advantage of this exciting market development and consider going long on USDJPY. Remember, the key to success lies in seizing opportunities when they arise, and this is undoubtedly one of those moments.
As always, remember to conduct thorough research, employ proper risk management strategies, and consult with your trusted financial advisor or broker before making any trading decisions.
Wishing you fruitful trades and a prosperous journey in the forex market!
Ready to ride the wave of yen depreciation? Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity! Take action now and go long on USDJPY to potentially maximize your profits. Remember, the forex market waits for no one, so seize the moment and make your move today!
BOJ under pressure to intervene yen weakness - Urgent Action Req
Recent developments surrounding the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are under increasing pressure to intervene in the ongoing weakness of the yen. As we stay vigilant in our trading strategies, it is crucial that we pause and carefully consider the potential implications of such intervention. Therefore, I strongly recommend that each one of us exercise caution and reevaluate our positions before proceeding further. It is with prudence and foresight that we can navigate through these uncertain times and protect our interests. Let's take a moment to assess the situation and make informed decisions before resuming trading. Stay alert and trade wisely.
Call to Action:
As a responsible trader, I encourage you to pause your yen trading until further notice. Take this opportunity to reassess your positions, consult market experts, and stay informed about the latest developments regarding BoJ's potential intervention. By ensuring we are well-informed and cautious, we can mitigate potential risks and make more successful trading decisions. Together, let's prioritize protection and long-term gains by taking a step back and reflecting on our strategies.
Potential BOJ Intervening on Yen Post-Federal Reserve MeetingIntroduction:
In the ever-evolving world of currency trading, it's crucial for traders to stay informed about potential interventions by central banks. The recent Federal Reserve meeting has sparked speculation about the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) next move regarding the yen. This article aims to examine the likelihood of BOJ intervention and provide a cautious analysis to traders considering long yen positions.
Understanding the Context:
The Federal Reserve's policies and decisions often have a significant impact on currency markets worldwide. As the world's two largest economies, the United States and Japan share a complex relationship that can influence currency valuations. Following any significant developments in the US monetary policy, it is prudent to assess the potential response from the BOJ and its implications for the yen.
Analyzing the Possibility of BOJ Intervention:
While predicting central bank actions is inherently challenging, there are a few factors that warrant attention when considering the likelihood of BOJ intervention on the yen:
1. Exchange Rate Stability: BOJ's primary concern is maintaining stability in the yen's exchange rate. If the yen appreciates rapidly against major currencies, it may harm Japan's export-driven economy. In such cases, the BOJ may intervene to prevent excessive yen appreciation.
2. Economic Recovery: Japan's ongoing efforts to revive its economy have been met with mixed results. The BOJ may consider intervening to support economic growth, particularly if the Federal Reserve's policies threaten to weaken the yen significantly.
3. Global Market Sentiment: The BOJ closely monitors global market sentiment, as abrupt changes can impact the yen's value. If the Federal Reserve's decisions lead to substantial market volatility, the BOJ may intervene to stabilize the yen and mitigate potential risks.
Call-to-Action: Long Yen with Caution
Considering the aforementioned factors, traders contemplating long yen positions should exercise caution and adopt a measured approach. Here are a few suggestions to consider:
1. Stay Informed: Continuously monitor news and updates from both the Federal Reserve and the BOJ to anticipate any potential intervention. Being aware of economic indicators, policy statements, and market sentiment is crucial for making informed trading decisions.
2. Technical Analysis: Utilize technical indicators and chart patterns to identify potential entry and exit points for yen positions. Combining technical analysis with fundamental factors can help traders navigate the market with a more comprehensive approach.
3. Risk Management: Implement robust risk management strategies to protect your capital. Setting stop-loss orders and diversifying your portfolio can help mitigate potential losses in case of unexpected market movements.
Conclusion:
While the possibility of BOJ intervention on the yen after the Federal Reserve meeting cannot be ruled out, traders should approach long yen positions with caution. By staying informed, conducting thorough analysis, and implementing effective risk management strategies, traders can navigate the currency markets more confidently. Remember, the key to successful trading lies in a balanced and informed approach.
asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Currencies/Yen-intervention-watch-redoubles-after-Fed-BOJ-meetings
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Traders are advised to conduct independent research and consult with professional advisors before making any investment decisions.
Bearish control...Seems like bearish market can control USDJPY again.
There is no intervention by BOJ yet, but, selling yen in this levels is so dangerous.
Trade safe.
Good luck.
JPY Basket (FXCM) - LONGWhile I am not a die-hard fan of FXCM's Yen Basket (much prefer NAFTA + Japan vs. "the World"), this index/basket is clearly working on an turn here. It is still relatively week but has likely put the worst behind it. Now, it is all about acceleration which, judging from past behavior, ought to gain significant momentum.
Again, I'd suggest to use this "basket" as an indicator rather than trading it outright - which is also possible.
(Work in progress on a properly weighted NAFTA + Japan Index.)
Nikkei break out? - China's JapanificationThe recent Nikkei rally is bringing it ever closer to that "magical" 30,000 level which it hasn't touched since the late '80s collapse.
IFF a breakout occurs, expect a collapse in all XYZ/JPY pairs - since, true to form, every equity/hedge fund in the world is expected to pile in.
Internal Chinese (export/import) numbers are showing a fair pick up in exports - post Covid - BUT a very anemic internal demand, with import numbers steadily surprising to the down-side (by a lot!). Simultaneously Japanese heavy industry is racking up some solid numbers lately, especially in regard to steel, automobile and electronic components.
All of this is fueled by an abating chip shortage, giving world wide car production a boost.
E.g. Watch the Nikkei price action and fully expect a blinding YEN rally should that 30,000 level get blown away!
Bullish on Yens Long TermOn the monthly timeframe, began 2022 wicking off 38,2 and ever since have just consolidated
Very similar looking to all prior long term corrections; back during all the hoopla we saw price flirt with 2,618 expansion level, never quite breaking above it
If this March 2023 candle closes above the 20ma, it would lead me to believe the bulls are about to have their way as far as printing candlesticks goes
The 3,618 expansion level does coincide with the -41,4% level, which in my experience has been a commonly hit target if fibonacci is incorporated into the overall analysis
I do not typically use it but mainly on the Monthly/Weekly timeframes
Let's see if we do get some bull momentum here in the next 2 months...
Yen traders look for opportunity as BOJ gains new leader The new governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, is currently in the spotlight as traders attempt to determine how closely he will adhere to his predecessor's ultra-loose monetary policies. Despite inflation in Japan reaching a 40-year high, Japanese interest rates have remained unchanged, causing the yen to weaken considerably over the past year. In his confirmation hearings, Ueda has offered some mild criticism of the current ultra-loose policy, but has not been explicit or specific, in order to avoid limiting his options when he takes full control of the Bank. However, Ueda has also noted that "It is appropriate for the Bank of Japan to continue monetary easing while continuing to devise ways to respond to the current situation," and that his predecessor's policies were "unavoidable".
Due to the ambiguity in Ueda's speeches, trading opportunities may arise in JPY pairs that could be unleashed once the situation becomes clearer. Many market watchers believe that Ueda will be more "flexible" and plans to enact some "policy lurches" in the future after settling into his role. This was the initial thought among traders when Ueda's surprise nomination made headlines in early February, causing a slight spike in the yen. However, the impact on currency markets was short-lived, and the US dollar has continued to climb, notching greater and greater yearly highs. The next two significant hurdles for the pair to overcome are 136.500 and 137.500.
Upon parliamentary approval this week, Ueda will assume the position on April 8, 2023, but his public addresses will be closely monitored leading up to this time. Furthermore, investors will examine past comments, including those from his 2005 memoir, "Fighting Zero Interest Rates," regarding his previous seven-year tenure on the Bank of Japan's policy board.
Buying Yen against Aussie -As the japanese yen make continues its bullish rally, aussie-yen pair weakens. Forming the double top, the pair continues its bearish rally.
USDJPY - bearish impulseHello everybody! We are currently in a downtrend on USDJPY on a daily and weekly timeframe, and we could expect another aggressive impulse, creating a lower low. The price has just retested the daily support that became resistance, and also the EMA. MACD lines are below 0 and the moving averages are also showing confluence to this bearish scenario. Moreover, the CS Indicator is indicating USD getting weaker, while JPY strengthening. OANDA:USDJPY FX:USDJPY
This week could set long-term trend of USD/JPY The USD/JPY has been one of the most interesting pairs to trade in 2022. The pair has had it all, including hitting record highs and central bank intervention. But the year is not over, and some more market events are primed to possibly inject a little more volatility into the pair.
Tomorrow will be the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision. While markets expect the bank to maintain its negative interest rate, it will be interesting to see if the bank starts to prepare the market for a potential tightening in the future in its post-decision address, now that the annual inflation rate in Japan reached 3.7% in October 2022. On Thursday we get to see how much higher inflation reached in November, with markets expecting a reading of 3.9%.
In the lead up to these two major market events, it is appropriate to look at the technical perspective of the USD/JPY.
The solid uptrend trend in the pair peaked after reaching 152.000 in October, after which the USD/JPY reversed, creating a series of lower lows in the daily chart. Subsequently, it broke below the upward trend channel. The price also retested the trend line at 142.200, a former strong demand zone.
Looking at the current price action on the daily timeframe, we can see that the USD/JPY is currently in a consolidation period between 138.000, which is the resistance area, and 134.000, which is the support area. Technically, since the short-term bias for the USD/JPY is currently downtrend according to the mini trend channel drawn above, we might expect a possible breakout to the downside once the 134.000 support area has been broken. If it happens, targets include 133.000, 131.000, and 127.000 if fundamentals support the momentum.
However, countering this outlook is the Know Sure Thing or KST, a momentum-based oscillator. The indicator is currently showing a bullish crossover. This crossover might suggest that there is also a possibility that a breakout to the upside might occur. Suppose the price for USD/JPY breaks above the 138.000 resistance area and closes above the mini trend channel. In that case, this might indicate that the downtrend since October might be another pullback, and the long-term bias for USD/JPY is an uptrend.
USD/JPY: Trend reversal. What's next? The Japanese yen was the strongest performing currency this week, rising about 4% against the US dollar, with USD/JPY plunging below 134 to levels not seen since mid-August.
Two favourable fundamental developments have fueled the yen's strength:
a) Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that US interest rates might be hiked more slowly starting in December, thus effectively anticipating a 50 basis point raise. On top of that, the latest stream of US data signalled that economic activity is slowing in this quarter pushing speculators to trim expectation for Fed interest rates in 2023. The yield on the US 10-year note dropped by another 15 basis points to 3.52% this week, putting it on course to notch its fourth consecutive week of declines.
b) Asahi Noguchi, a Bank of Japan board member, said the central bank might "pre-emptively" withdraw monetary stimulus if trend inflation surpasses 2% for a long time.
Technically, we have also observed pivotal signals that may portend the end of the dominant bullish trend and the beginning of a bearish one.
Since its October highs (151.95), the pair has now dropped 12%, breaching both the 50 and 200 day moving averages as well as major Fibonacci retracement levels such as 23.6% (142.81) and 38.2% (137.19). The RSI has reached highly oversold levels not seen since March 2020, meaning that the bearish price action was rather violent.
What can we expect from here?
A critical support zone is positioned between 130.3 and 132.65. If USD/JPY breaks below 132, it would have retraced 50% of its bullish expansion in 2022, a signal that might confirm the bearish trend reversal. The 130.3 represents the lows from August, which is another technical milestone.
The US NFPs from today and the CPI due out on December 13 constitute the bullish risk event for the USD/JPY and might influence the Fed's tone at the FOMC meeting on December 14. Higher-than-expected NFPs or CPI data might rekindle dollar bulls and drive US yields higher on anticipation of a hawkish Fed, resulting in USD/JPY dip buying and a possible retest of 140 levels.
sell at 151.33 as much overbought tp mini 148.60much overbought everywhere,even if no intervention,need a correction
1 week after Japanese yen interventionLast Thursday was an incredibly volatile trading session for the USD/JPY. This volatility was largely caused by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) intervention in the currency markets to defend its depreciating currency, the Japanese Yen. Last week’s move was the first time since 1998 that the BoJ had intervened.
There are some parallels between 1998’s intervention and 2022’s. For one, the price level in 1998 was cracking 146.00 when the BoJ stepped in. Before last week’s intervention, the pair was trying to sustain a break above the 145.00 key resistance, almost reaching the 146.00 price level.
Where the most recent intervention might diverge is the sustainability of the pair’s downside potential.
While last week’s intervention did cause a huge fall in the USD/JPY from 145.90 to 140.35 in one session, it has since found its way back to ~144.00 over the ensuing days. This is because the BoJ’s temporary currency intervention is no match for its unwavering commitment to ultra-low interest rates. Bear in mind that the BoJ may jump back into the currency market at any time to help the yen, and as we have seen, 145.00 is a critical level for the BoJ.
Currently, the price for the USDJPY is back on track towards the upside. However, the price is currently contenting with 145.00, a monthly key psychological resistance and an RSI in the 60s.
On the other hand, the daily timeframe has a minor candle closure above the 144.50 daily resistance. This closure might indicate a possible continuation of the upside. The current daily candle, however, should have a strong bullish candle close to support this idea. The current candle closing below 144.50 might indicate a consolidation between 144.50 and 142.00 and needs to make an empathic break before we see price make a sustained move in either direction.
