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Yenpairs

GBPJPY Reversal PatternGBPJPY here bounced at a major supply/flip zone at around the 125 pychological zone. From here, the downtrend began to exhaust, and from here we have not made any new lower lows. It seems like we will be making a higher low swing here. What we want to see here is a break and close this 131.35 zone. Not only would we confirm a higher low swing in a new uptrend and break past the previous lower high nullifying the downtrend, we would also create a head and shoulders pattern which shows us a reversal transition.
Long
by Uncharted-FX
1
Japanese Yen Bottoming? Negative News Ahead?The Yen futures are at a very big flip zone as can be seen on the daily chart. On the 4 hour, we have had multiple swings lower, and that trend seems to be exhausting. We had a fake out candle, indicated by the large wick, which is CONFIRMED due to the break and close above it. Expecting to see some sort of pattern here, perhaps a head and shoulders. The Yen is seen as a safe haven currency. Mainly because the Japanese government is seen as stable, and the fact that the Japanese have the highest savings of the western allied orientated nations. The Yen is backed by savings. If we do see a move up here on the Yen, you must consider the possibility of some sort of negative news. Perhaps about the Coronavirus being worse than admitted by the Chinese. This is likely. I do not trust Chinese economic data, nor would I trust their data on the virus. So we may be setting up for a pullback in equities on this news maybe which will come out next week. Just seeing the cycles of the chart. So some pairs that look interesting: EURJPY may trigger here on the daily candle break today. CHFJPY may not trigger until next week. USDJPY interesting on the 4 hour, but not the best looking trend that I look for. Other yen pairs remain below their first lower high swings on the daily charts.
CME:6J1!Long
by Uncharted-FX
1
EURJPY setup worth watchingA very nice set up presenting itself for the EURJPY. We are at a very important flip/support zone after a prolonged downtrend with multiple swings. Here we seem to be exhausting the down trend, and are forming a basing pattern here a double bottom/range. Nothing is confirmed until we get the break and close above the 120.40 zone. A set up we are watching for the week ahead. Perhaps not worth entering and holding over the weekend given all the things going around the world, specifically the coronavirus, with a headline easily creating a move into safe haven currencies like the Yen. If we get the break and close above, then the next flip zone is above at the 121.45 zone which would be our first take profit level.
Long
by Uncharted-FX
1
Potential Japanese Yen Move...Market Pullback?Looking at the Japanese Yen Futures on the 4 hour chart, and we are beginning to see the ending or exhaustion of this downtrend. We are not making anymore more lower highs, and it seems we may be setting up for a first higher low...this will be shown with the head and shoulders pattern we are seeing but awaiting for the trigger. The Yen generally has a correlation with the equity markets (although I stress this is now always the case...especially in this macro environment where we are seeing a disconnect as funds and investors need to chase yield with the stock market being the only place to do so). Some yen pairs that I have been watching have already triggered like AUDJPY, EURJPY, and TRYJPY. USDJPY is looking prime:
CME:6J1!Long
by Uncharted-FX
How We Predicted the Iran Strikes.Just three days into 2020, and two trading days in, the market reacts to big geopolitical news which shakes the markets. It came out that President Trump ordered a hit on Iranian General of the QUDS force, and Iran’s top military commander, Qasem Soleimani. Markets fell on the news but recovered to end the week close to where they opened, making up for the down move. We saw the safe haven assets go up : Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen as well as Oil. Let us begin with the obvious: Oil. Readers of this blog and my work know that when Oil turned down in 2014, governments forced banks to provide loans to these oil companies to ensure they do not LAY OFF any workers. These oil companies are essentially zombie companies. Oil cannot be allowed to fall because it affects the banks. Oil will be propped up and will continue to be managed higher because it means energy and the financial sectors do well…which make up a large component in the US stock markets. We expect markets to still go up. The sell off we saw is likely people wanting to close positions for this weekend due to the uncertainty, but this will likely be short lived. Do not forget that for a money manager, there is still nowhere to go for yield except the stock markets. This will still force money into stocks. Ironically, many funds have been going into energy because it looks attractive compared to everything else…even though oil fundamentals are not the greatest. This is a chase for yield. Let us not forget about Saudi Aramco as well. The Saudi’s now have even more incentive for higher oil prices. Now onto how we have predicted a future conflict. That post linked below describes the situation in more detail, however I will summarize the major points pertaining to Iran here. Simply this has to do with the US Dollar, and how Russia and China are attacking US Dollar Demand. As long as the Dollar remains the world reserve currency, the Americans can print as much money as they want and not worry about their debts and deficits…a situation the French called “exorbitant privilege”. Russia and China are attacking Dollar demand and are positioning themselves (even instigating) a situation where the Dollar gets stronger and nations choose to NOT use the Dollar for trade due to this strength. My readers know my take on the US Dollar. As the Dollar goes higher, the worlds problems exacerbate. The Dollar is very well what is motivating the Fed to cut rates and other extreme measures to attempt to weaken the Dollar…but it will not work. Iran is key to Russia and China because Iran does NOT take US Dollars for their oil. Nations which have seen their currencies decimated already by US Dollar strength, like the Indian Rupee and the Turkish Lira, cannot afford to use the Dollar for oil anymore and hence why India and Turkey have been buying oil from Iran. Japan, South Korea and European nations also do so, however the Asian nations mentioned and some European nations stopped due to US pressure. Iran is key to Russia and China for their Dollar plan. Russia is also getting close with Saudi Arabia. Putin and future King, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, becoming quite the pals. I have speculated that when he becomes King, he could very well drop the US Dollar for oil and Russia will protect the Kingdom from American retaliation. Why? Well as the Dollar gets stronger, Iranian oil looks more attractive. This means the Saudi’s are losing market share to the Iranians. It would be in their best interest to also drop the Dollar for oil. What is the big factor is the fact the Saudi’s know they are in a prime position right now. The Saudi’s can tell the Americans to deal with the Iranians otherwise they will have to drop the Dollar and accept the Russian and Chinese conditions. For the US, this is a big part of their future decisions. The US has to maintain US Dollar demand, and the best way is by using the military. The US military is now technically the armed branch of the Federal Reserve. We have seen in the past nations like Iraq and Libya threatening and implementing plans to drop the US Dollar for oil…look what happened to them. Russia and China are in the way right now…they will not allow Iran to be destabilized or taken out. The US really has two options: war and/or some sort of capital controls which would see the Eastern sphere literally break off and develop into their own block as many nations look to Moscow and Beijing given the actions of the west. I have written about the war card extensively. It really is a seriously discussed option and US generals are speaking about how they must act within two years. Quite the start to 2020 but we have not seen anything yet in terms of geopolitics and monetary policy.
TVC:DXY
by Uncharted-FX
CADJPY Broader Head and Shoulders PatternLike what I see here on the CADJPY. We had our downtrend, and now have made a reversal pattern here. Today's daily candle closed higher above previous highs and had quite the strong break, although I would have preferred if it close above the wicks. This trade is valid above the 83.00 higher low level. That is the swing we are working with. Would be looking at 85.00 for take profit. Cad could also coincide with the Oil break we have had.
Long
by Uncharted-FX
TRYJPY Breaks ConsolidationUnfortunately the break happened on a Friday. Will be looking to enter this trade next week as I do not want to hold over the weekend in this type of macro environment. First of all in terms of market structure, we had an uptrend with defined and multiple swings. What we look for. Then we stopped making higher lows and began ranging. We thus have seen 2/3 ways of the only ways all markets move. This break of the support level was quite strong as indicated by the large red body candle. And, it broke a flip zone level too. We even got a lower bounce pattern which is another confluence. For next week, I would like to see a retest of the break which would then create a lower high we can work with. That is ideal. Target will be the flip zone at 18.50.
Short
by Uncharted-FX