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Yenpairs

Potential Japanese Yen Move...Market Pullback?Looking at the Japanese Yen Futures on the 4 hour chart, and we are beginning to see the ending or exhaustion of this downtrend. We are not making anymore more lower highs, and it seems we may be setting up for a first higher low...this will be shown with the head and shoulders pattern we are seeing but awaiting for the trigger. The Yen generally has a correlation with the equity markets (although I stress this is now always the case...especially in this macro environment where we are seeing a disconnect as funds and investors need to chase yield with the stock market being the only place to do so). Some yen pairs that I have been watching have already triggered like AUDJPY, EURJPY, and TRYJPY. USDJPY is looking prime:
CME:6J1!Long
by Uncharted-FX
How We Predicted the Iran Strikes.Just three days into 2020, and two trading days in, the market reacts to big geopolitical news which shakes the markets. It came out that President Trump ordered a hit on Iranian General of the QUDS force, and Iran’s top military commander, Qasem Soleimani. Markets fell on the news but recovered to end the week close to where they opened, making up for the down move. We saw the safe haven assets go up : Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen as well as Oil. Let us begin with the obvious: Oil. Readers of this blog and my work know that when Oil turned down in 2014, governments forced banks to provide loans to these oil companies to ensure they do not LAY OFF any workers. These oil companies are essentially zombie companies. Oil cannot be allowed to fall because it affects the banks. Oil will be propped up and will continue to be managed higher because it means energy and the financial sectors do well…which make up a large component in the US stock markets. We expect markets to still go up. The sell off we saw is likely people wanting to close positions for this weekend due to the uncertainty, but this will likely be short lived. Do not forget that for a money manager, there is still nowhere to go for yield except the stock markets. This will still force money into stocks. Ironically, many funds have been going into energy because it looks attractive compared to everything else…even though oil fundamentals are not the greatest. This is a chase for yield. Let us not forget about Saudi Aramco as well. The Saudi’s now have even more incentive for higher oil prices. Now onto how we have predicted a future conflict. That post linked below describes the situation in more detail, however I will summarize the major points pertaining to Iran here. Simply this has to do with the US Dollar, and how Russia and China are attacking US Dollar Demand. As long as the Dollar remains the world reserve currency, the Americans can print as much money as they want and not worry about their debts and deficits…a situation the French called “exorbitant privilege”. Russia and China are attacking Dollar demand and are positioning themselves (even instigating) a situation where the Dollar gets stronger and nations choose to NOT use the Dollar for trade due to this strength. My readers know my take on the US Dollar. As the Dollar goes higher, the worlds problems exacerbate. The Dollar is very well what is motivating the Fed to cut rates and other extreme measures to attempt to weaken the Dollar…but it will not work. Iran is key to Russia and China because Iran does NOT take US Dollars for their oil. Nations which have seen their currencies decimated already by US Dollar strength, like the Indian Rupee and the Turkish Lira, cannot afford to use the Dollar for oil anymore and hence why India and Turkey have been buying oil from Iran. Japan, South Korea and European nations also do so, however the Asian nations mentioned and some European nations stopped due to US pressure. Iran is key to Russia and China for their Dollar plan. Russia is also getting close with Saudi Arabia. Putin and future King, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, becoming quite the pals. I have speculated that when he becomes King, he could very well drop the US Dollar for oil and Russia will protect the Kingdom from American retaliation. Why? Well as the Dollar gets stronger, Iranian oil looks more attractive. This means the Saudi’s are losing market share to the Iranians. It would be in their best interest to also drop the Dollar for oil. What is the big factor is the fact the Saudi’s know they are in a prime position right now. The Saudi’s can tell the Americans to deal with the Iranians otherwise they will have to drop the Dollar and accept the Russian and Chinese conditions. For the US, this is a big part of their future decisions. The US has to maintain US Dollar demand, and the best way is by using the military. The US military is now technically the armed branch of the Federal Reserve. We have seen in the past nations like Iraq and Libya threatening and implementing plans to drop the US Dollar for oil…look what happened to them. Russia and China are in the way right now…they will not allow Iran to be destabilized or taken out. The US really has two options: war and/or some sort of capital controls which would see the Eastern sphere literally break off and develop into their own block as many nations look to Moscow and Beijing given the actions of the west. I have written about the war card extensively. It really is a seriously discussed option and US generals are speaking about how they must act within two years. Quite the start to 2020 but we have not seen anything yet in terms of geopolitics and monetary policy.
TVC:DXY
by Uncharted-FX
CADJPY Broader Head and Shoulders PatternLike what I see here on the CADJPY. We had our downtrend, and now have made a reversal pattern here. Today's daily candle closed higher above previous highs and had quite the strong break, although I would have preferred if it close above the wicks. This trade is valid above the 83.00 higher low level. That is the swing we are working with. Would be looking at 85.00 for take profit. Cad could also coincide with the Oil break we have had.
Long
by Uncharted-FX
TRYJPY Breaks ConsolidationUnfortunately the break happened on a Friday. Will be looking to enter this trade next week as I do not want to hold over the weekend in this type of macro environment. First of all in terms of market structure, we had an uptrend with defined and multiple swings. What we look for. Then we stopped making higher lows and began ranging. We thus have seen 2/3 ways of the only ways all markets move. This break of the support level was quite strong as indicated by the large red body candle. And, it broke a flip zone level too. We even got a lower bounce pattern which is another confluence. For next week, I would like to see a retest of the break which would then create a lower high we can work with. That is ideal. Target will be the flip zone at 18.50.
Short
by Uncharted-FX
Are we ready to explode on CHFJPY?As you can guys this pair is talking alone. After a double bottom on the daily time frame we definetly explode to the upside pushing up about 335 pips. As we can see we have also broken a weekly descending trendline and now we have formed a Symmetrical Triangle in a consolidation zone. After 4 weeks more or less where prices are compressing, are we finally ready to see a big move on this pair? My idea is to wait price to come in the middle of our triangle and then taking a long position with a minimum risk of 25 pips. Lets see how this plays out. Entry 109.73 SL 109.49 TP1 110.55 TP2 111.90
Long
by GoodGameFx
1
NZDJPY Cup and Handle Daily ChartNZDJPY great market structure analysis. We have been in a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. This trend began to exhaust at the support/flip zone of 67.00 where we made a double bottom, an exhaustion pattern. We stopped making lower highs and seem set to make our first higher low but it needs a higher high (break and close above the 69.80 zone to confirm this). We can also see this break would create a cup and handle like formation. Our target is the 72.30 zone. Conversely, there could be a 4 hour short set up. This would require a break and close below 69.00 to trigger a short.
by Uncharted-FX
NZDJPY and AUDJPY Reversals?Both the daily charts of AUDJPY and NZDJPY are showing signs of a reversal. With the NZDJPY, we had a double bottom at the 67.00 zone. It is a big support/flip zone. Yesterday we had a break and close above the 69.30 zone which is also a break above the previous swing (lower high). I like the structure here and as long as we hold the breakout zone, I can see price moving to the 72.00 zone. AUDJPY also interesting and has created a confirmed higher low with this higher high we got on yesterdays daily close. Would target the 76.00 zone if we hold this breakout zone. Finishing off with the Yen futures, let us see if we break this larger head and shoulders pattern. Would provide more confluence for our trade. Conversely, the yen futures on the 4 hour can be basing for a reversal.
Long
by Uncharted-FX
USDJPY Exhausting? Yen Futures Potential Bottom.USDJPY on the 2 hour chart showing a nice uptrend with defined higher lows and higher highs. We have reached a big flip/resistance zone here at the 109.00 zone. Take a look at this zone on the daily chart. After making higher lows and higher highs, we failed to make a new higher high and this can be seen as a sign that the trend is exhausting or losing steam. We are beginning to range here. There is a short term support/flip zone here at 108.55 that I am watching for a break and close below for an entry. 107.60 would be the target to the downside but do see how price reacts at the 108.15 zone. Take a look at the Yen Futures chart as well: We are at a support zone and showing signs of a range. Some may argue that on the daily it is a large head and shoulders pattern, but that would not trigger unless we get the break and close. Hence why we always are patient for breaks and closes. We do not chase price.
Short
by Uncharted-FX
An opportunity on Yen pairs, in particular CHFJPYMarket detective here, As I have been repeating, I am convinced the whole economy is in a complete pyramid scheme. All yen pairs are trending the same direction, chf might be a safe haven too but actually it is less influenced by scammy interventions so chfjpy might be the safest one to go for, and anyway it's not very important (the fundamental thing) it's just short term. Better go for the currencies that won't have stupid manipulations. Trend is down, and there is no support for a LONG while with CHFJPY making it my choice currency. Lmao lately I posgted my watchlist and it is not even in it, but when you have an idea you know, you look for the best way to express it, and I look alot at both currencies, so it isn't that crazy if once in a while I go for a pair I am not very used to. The theory is, idk if I am being clear / making sense, we have a swing failure pattern. CHFJPY has only be going up because USDJPY has. 0 logical reason. There were some good news about the trade war (zzz) and some big vertical candles. Those get traders very excited. Buyers were waiting for a new high to fomo in massively, but the price is not going up. Looks like all they did was provide liquidity to institutions (+ shorts SL above swing high). And now, potentially, all of these eager buyers are trapped, well will be IF it drops. * Institutions are not only taking short positions (if they even are), but also they need alot of suckers to sell to, to close their longs they opened as the pyramid scheme master (Trump) said "now price go up". Ye price pulled back, but I think there were still some bags to unload. Distribution time. I am not big on indicators, but geeeeeee come on, here the price has repeatedly hit on the MA 100 door, over, and over, and over again, and falling afterwards. Probably big odds of going down, not much reason to go up, AND if it goes down, there is no ground to catch the price until very far away (with chfjpy). Worth a shot.
Short
by MrRenev
1
TRYJPY Double Bottom FormingMaybe not the most popular trade idea given what is occurring with Turkey geopolitically, but a good set up nonetheless. Been in a downtrend with multiple waves, and we hit a support/flip zone which can be seen by going further back or on the daily chart. A double bottom indicates a possible exhaustion of the trend as no new lower lows have been made. I am looking here for a break and close above the 18.54 zone but perhaps 18.60 is better since we take out the previous lower high. 19.10 zone would be the target if we get the break.
Long
by Uncharted-FX
CADJPY bounce at Support/Flip zoneI like what I see here on CADJPY on the 2 hour chart. We hit a nice support/flip zone which can be seen by zooming out or going on the higher time frames. So far there is nothing to indicate a reversal, as we are still making lower highs and lower lows. However, what I am predicting here is a potential higher low which will be confirmed by a higher high break of a neckline of a potential head and shoulders pattern. This will be the 80.60 zone. First take profit will be the 81.20 zone. I still believe stocks will go higher (barring any geopolitical events) because there will be nowhere to go for yield. Wall street understands the game. Central Banks only mandate is to keep assets propped up. If they fall there will big problems not only with retirements, but with banks as well.
Long
by Uncharted-FX
1
GBPJPY double top/Head and Shoulders pattern.GBPJPY hit a big resistance/ flip zone and created a double top here. What this shows is that a higher low (confirmed by a higher high) could not be made so there was an exhaustion of the trend. We then broke below a support zone of 134.00 and the break and close was a strong red candle indicating strength. With this uptrend over, we would expect multiple waves of lower highs and lower lows (downtrend). Targeting 132.30 zone for my first take profit zone. Take a look at the Yen futures as well. It made a nice break as well and has a nice pattern:
Short
by Uncharted-FX
4
GBPJPY BEARISHAs we can see price struggled to break the bearish structure on the daily despite the bullish rally we have previously just had, i would like to see price now come down to at least 61% which for me i have marked this zone in green and the blue zone being 88%. Mondays are never really a day i look to enter markets but over the next coming weeks as we are also approaching brexit talks i would like to see the pound fall and in doing so mitigating candles below and filling imbalance.
Short
by LitCap-Vell
JPY Futures Index - Trend Change in Yen CrossesJPY Futures chart shows the Yen is currently oversold, broke below falling wedge, approaching strong trend-line and horizontal support. Watch for trend reversals across all JPY crosses. (Individual charts for Yen crosses show many pairs approaching Daily resistance zones) Yen crosses tend to produce decent trend trade opportunities. The large impulsive move in August, shown on the chart, is a perfect example (Sudden shift to Risk Off sentiment, as S&P saw a sharp selloff) . AUD NZD CAD and even GBP (Risk currencies) would provide good short opportunities in a similar situation. Higher time-frame charts show JPY trending higher, allowing us to trade with trend.
CME:6J1!Long
by cccpKGB1