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BTC & EUR correction: the dollar has a comeback!BTC & EURO are very correlated because if the EUR goes up the USD goes down and consequently BTC goes up. This week I expect more losses for the EUR and BTC because of the parabolic moves of US10Y notes. (bonds) The fed has an announcement today and I dont know what they will announce but I bet they do everything to protect their dollar. In my chart you can clearly see that when the Euro surges; BTC does so aswell. (zoom out) For the middle / short term I dont expect a recovery from the euro. This is because European bonds have negative yield and are as valuable as toiletpaper, this means more selling of EU bonds and more buying of US bonds. This will only strengthen the dollar even more; this could lead to a short (!) bear market for BTC and the Euro. In my opinion to continue the bull run in crypto we need a correction to cool down NUPL, Thermocap (etc) and to get smart money onboard. Smart money is not buying the top, we need smart money because we are all broke and will not move BTC anywhere up... Remember BTC is a grown up asset now and we need almost a trillion to get it to 100K and no thats not coming from you or me. If BTC really corrects, this means trouble for major alts and they will dump a lot stronger than BTC, however this will create a new impulse of smart money buying. So in my opinion, either you do nothing or you anticipate but you do not want to panic at the bottom and sell there. Another important factor is how the stock markets will react to the parabolic yields and or the announcement of the fed. I think the markets (esp those in the US) are overextended and need a correction (not a crash per se but its possible) to continue the bull run. So similar situation as BTC; see my linked chart below S&P500 vs BTC for more info on those bull runs. IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest at your own risk and research. TARGETS: BTC current: 57420 Short term target: 54100-53350 (next 48hrs) Mid / short term: 50900-5100 (before 27-03-2021) Eur current: 1.1889 Short term target: 1.1789 (96hrs) Mid term target: 1.134 (before end of April) Dont hate corrections, they are healthy, extend the bull run and you can actually buy BTC cheaper. ;)
Short
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
2
2% yield is coming--soonHello everyone, I drew this pattern a few days ago when analyzing the SP500 behavior in recent weeks. I believe the market boogeyman is not gone and that today was just a taste of what he has in store. 2% yield will not be in July. It will be here in April or June... and as early as March 29th. The yields are behaving extremely bullish lately. The blue lines represent an ascending channel that is consolidating at higher lows. In the past few days you can see that the pattern is returning to the center of this channel less and less. It's breaking out of the channel to former a sharper one. So we've got increasing curvature. I believe the yields have a strong possibility of going parabolic unless the fed takes control. Given JPOWs speech, he is going to be reactionary and not prevent it. So it's definitely in the realm of possible and trending towards it. I believe this could have severe implications for the equities market. I've drawn a purple 2% yield line which is being eyed by the market as a whole as a possible 'catalyst' for a 20% correction. At 2%, the yield allows the bonds to break even by surpassing what JPOW says is inflation. The bond market is not believing JPOW and the Fed. They seem to believe inflation is over 3% and as high as 4%. They also seem to believe that it is not transitory. The yield is also becoming suspicious. I believe there are a number of short sellers hitting the US10Y in an effort to push the fed to raise rates. I have no proof. Only a gut feeling based on observed price action. Be careful. A parabolic yield could induce a panic leading to a possible limit down on the NASDAQ/SP500. You're welcome to view my forecast I made on March 12th. We are seeing some deviation but the overall pattern remains. If I am trading right now I would be in cash or in puts. Please trade carefully. The market may experience extreme volatility as the TINA effect weakens. (There Is No Alternative -- meaning stocks have the best return possible and there is no competition) Disclaimer: I am holding puts and have been for a few days. I am not a financial expert or advisor. Trade at your own risk.
TVC:US10YShort
by tay_tay86
Weekly $TLT Most Oversold.... EVER!We are watching a capitulation of long dated bonds in real time. Today's huge gap down of -2% breaking last week's lows is actually perfectly in line with TLT seasonality for the past 16 years. This is no coincidence as the March 2009 - March 2010 sequence in bonds is very similar to the March 2020 - March 2021 sequence. The Q1 FOMC in the 3rd week is usually a catalyst to reverse the sentiment in bonds. This extra gap down near the statistical low for the *Entire Year* is a true gift. When bonds recover, expect a huge buy cycle back into beaten down tech/growth stocks. A big clue today was Gold. It tracked 30Y bonds (ZB Futures) overnight down, but reversed hard with the Euro off supports. Normally, if TLT was down -2% at the USA open gold would be crushed, but it did the exact opposite. Something is off with long dated bonds and I feel this will be quickly resolved with the FOMC catalyst next week. Join in this great trade! TLT Seasonality for the previous 16 years - There are no coincidences!
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by mortdiggiddy
85
The Basic properties of BONDSA bond is a contractual agreement between an issuer and the bondholder. Owning a bond is like enjoying a stream of future cash flows. There are several important features that every bondholder must know before acquiring them: • The bond properties – issuer, maturity, principal, coupon rate and frequency, and the currency in which they are denominated. These properties are determinants of the investor’s expected and actual returns. • The tax and legal framework that applies to the contract between issuer and bondholder • The contingency provisions that affect the bond’s scheduled cash flows. In this article, we will focus on the bond properties and go through them one by one. Issuer Many entities can issue bonds. Usually, bond issuers are classified into categories based on their characteristics: 1. International organizations: World Bank etc. 2. Sovereign governments: The Unites States of America, The United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, etc. 3. Local governments: states, regions, counties 4. Companies: corporate issuers 5. Specialized legal entities Bondholders are exposed to credit risk , that is the risk of loss resulting from the issuer failing to pay the interest and/or repayment of principal. The issuer’s creditworthiness is rated by credit rating agencies . Maturity The maturity date of a bond refers to the date on which the issuer is obligated to pay the outstanding principal amount . A bond’s term of maturity is the length of time in which the bondholder will receive the interest payments on the principal. One notable exception is the perpetual bond , which is a fixed income security with no maturity date. Principal amount The principal amount of a bond is the amount the issuer agrees to pay the bondholder once the bond reaches maturity. The amount is also referred to as par value or nominal value . Bond prices are traded and quoted as a percentage of the principal amount. For example, if a bond’s par value is $100, a quote of 98 means that the price of the bond is worth $98. If the bond is trading below the par value it is said that it is trading at a discount . If the bond is traded above the par value it is said that it's trading at a premium . Coupon rate and frequency The coupon rate of a bond is the interest rate that the issuer agrees to pay each year to the bondholder until it reaches the maturity date. The annual sum paid is called the coupon . For example, a bond with a coupon rate of 3% and a par value of $10000 will pay an annual interest of $300. A conventional bond pays a fixed income rate. However, there are bonds that pay a floating rate of interest; these bonds are called floating-rate notes . All bonds make periodic coupon payments except for zero-coupon bonds , which trade at a discount of their par value and pay zero annual interest. Currency denomination Bonds can be issued in any currency although the largest number of bond issues are made in US dollars or euros. The currency of issue may affect the attractiveness of the bond, that’s why issuers from many countries in the world choose these 2 currencies to attract international investors and offset the disadvantages of their local currencies. Trade with care. If you like our content, please feel free to support our page with a like , comment & subscribe for future educational ideas and trading setups.
Editors' picks
TVC:US10YEducation
by financialflagship
77
Is US10Y Yield going up?Hi there, as I draw, in my idea the US10Y Yield will rise till the level 1,68, I put the stop as a red line, as you see many levels form that triangle that ends to the resistance of February 2020. I drawed green lines to support the rising, as you see the week ends, using that line as support, maybe because is slowing down from the 1,5% peak, but well it didn't go far away from that layer. Using the bottom from March there is a projection that i draw with the blue dashed line, but in my opinion is weaker than "the yellow pattern". I tried to figure out a trend myself Let me know your opinion about. Thank you :)
TVC:US10Y
by OVER-THE-COUNTER
2
K: anyone like their cereal?K has got to be one oft the most boring stocks out there. It is positively geriatric. But it pays a 3.96% yield, an $82 fair value by Morningstar, and has a wide moat as a result of intangible assets and cost edge over competitors. I expect the stock to break out of its short-term descending wedge by the end of spring, where it will enter the longer-term wedge indicated in the chart. Given the long-lived lower support, I would be surprised by significant downside from here. Dividend lovers who are sick of filing K-1s and dealing with OPEC foolery can accumulate some shares here.
NYSE:KLong
by decaro
The Gold-Yield GapSince 2018, Gold has pretty closely tracked the inverted real yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds. Recently, however, a fairly large gap has opened between the two. Will gold close the gap with inverted bond yields, or vice versa? Generally speaking, it looks like gold has led bonds for most of this period. That suggests that gold investors are a little quicker to react to news that might affect inflation expectations. Honestly you might be able to do pretty well for yourself by going long or short bond funds based on signals from the gold market. Gold has weakened partly in reaction to US dollar strength in the first two months of 2021. The dollar index broke out of its downward wedge and looked like it might move higher: There are signs of deflationary pressures on the dollar, including a couple recent overnight repo shortages of the sort we haven't seen since the early stages of the pandemic. The Fed has been responding to this pressure by growing its balance sheet and increasing bank reserves. Janet Yellen currently has plans to pump an additional $1 trillion into bank reserves. All of that's bearish for gold and bullish for the US dollar and bond yields. However, there's some potentially game-changing news this morning: Congressional Democrats are talking about passing a $3 trillion jobs and infrastructure bill. A $3 trillion spending bill could significantly weaken the US dollar and could cause a nice bump in gold. With gold at a very significant support level, I think it's ripe for at least a short-term mean-reversion play, if not a swing all the way up to meet the inverted real yield line. Long gold, long dollars, and short bonds is a potential way to play this until we've closed the gap.
UShort
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
5