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Short term rates still look weak while long term look betterHAPPY NEW YEAR! 🎉 US Treasury markets are more than the combined bond markets of Germany, Japan, China, UK, France, and Italy = HUGE. This is why US #Bond market is important to keep track of. Short term #interestrates has been the weakest in a LONG TIME 1Yr & 2Yr charts look similar. US Debt 2ys & less have been weakening & look like they still want to weaken a bit more. ------------------------------------------------- HOWEVER, long term debt looks to be solidifying a bit. The 10 & 30Yr #Yield look identical & both look like they want to bounce here. How strong? We'll see. Took small position on Thurs. This could also be more of a technical set up as both are at support levels, 30yr is at strong long term support. TVC:TNX #bonds
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
LONG a Falling Interest Rate! - TLTNASDAQ:TLT is an ETF that tracks value of United States Treasury Bonds in the time range of the 20-30-year bonds. With this ETF tracking the bond value it will rise with the decrease in these bond yields as the previous bonds offering higher % rates increase in value. I am bullish on TLT for a few reasons that are summarized in the bullets below - Interest Rates are at their highest levels in around 20 years and history would show that following these peaks in the 5.5%-7% range tends to be a sharp fall of interest rates usually due to a general moderate or severe economic downturn needing economic stimulus with low rates - Along with the peak thesis, in the current economic state of America, it has been generally discussed by Fed Presidents that rate slowdown / rate hike pauses are starting. The FedWatch tool from CMEGroup shows that traders predict the highest rates will not go any higher, and actually start being cut in Early Spring 2024. Due to this data, it is definitely important to realize the risk/reward of this trade on how the downside is minimal with the current economic conditions proving interest rates will likely not move higher, and definitely not more than a last 25bps hike for this rate cycle considering no unprecedented events occur. - Another staple to this bullish thesis is against the Federal Reserve. I strongly believe the Federal Reserve bluffs intentionally during their public conferences and talks. Recalling the inflationary period following COVID, the Fed repeatedly spoke out on this inflation being transitory while CPI rocketed to record highs in decades. I believe they like to not inform the public to the 100% truth and locked room talks. The Fed has came out and said they are quite against publicizing a rate pause officially / begin cutting rates and I believe this is a bluff. As the Fed claims to wait for data, I believe that data is showing, and will continue to show stronger economic struggle from the effects on high-interest rates. As unemployment just ticked up and probably will continue, rates will start to drop fast as soon as the Fed starts. Treasury Yields would likely dump prior to all of this as the anticipation begins to flow into the markets. Lastly, I think the Fed tends to deceive the public to try and not heavily move the markets in a short time. - Overall the data should start to pour in on economic slow down as student loan repayments resume, credit delinquencies continue to rise, housing market cools, unemployment ticking up, and more can feed to a sharp drop in CPI as aggregate US demand settles. The Fed will act on this slowdown and will need to sharply cut interest rates, especially if they wait too long. - Technicals on NASDAQ:TLT also look strong with a major demand zone, a dailydouble bottom and a diagonal trendline supports the price level. TTM_Squeeze also backs up a possible end to the downside. Below 89 area could be a solid Exit area for risk-management. Any Cut in Rates, or anticipation in rate cuts can send TLT flying with bond yields tumbling. Bonus: NASDAQ:TLT also provides a safe hedge to a market collapse or recession. Because market recessions would spark a cut in rates to help fuel a recovery, while stocks may tumble, this ETF would rally on a decline of interest rates to help stimulate a falling economy. Thesis : long Commons or 2025 dated Credit Spreads
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by ZachSap
6
Crypto101 - How to Make Money with DeFiHi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. If you’ve been following me on TradingView for a while, you’ll now that I’m a believer – a believer in the promise of blockchain. One of the principals of this promise is to move away from centrally controlled banking systems. This would eventually include the act of saving and earning interest for the money that you leave in the capable hands of your banker (who also gets to decide whether or not you qualify for loans). Currently, you need to give up all of your personal information to open a bank account and furthermore you are seriously undercut in the returns / interest rate that you will be receiving (to name only two of many problems with the system). For example, where I reside, the most common interest on a savings account is 5% annually, whereas the interest on your credit card is 19.5% annually. Before we continue, familiarize yourself with these Key Terms: TVL – Total Value Locked in the platform DEX - A decentralized exchange. Peer-to-peer marketplace where transactions occur directly between crypto traders like Coinbase and Binance Blockchain – A unique way of coding that is open for anyone to use, many believe that web3 will be built on top this kind of coding DeFi – Decentralized Finance such as cryptocurrencies and stablecoins dApp – Software like apps that work on the basis of blockchain code and thus apps that accommodate cryptocurrency such as UniSwap and NFT Market places LP tokens - New liquidity pool tokens. LP tokens represent a crypto liquidity provider's share of a pool, and the crypto liquidity provider remains entirely in control of the token. For example, if you contribute $10 USD worth of assets to a Balancer pool that has a total worth of $100, you would receive 10% of that pool's LP tokens. APY - Annual Percentage Yield, think of it as yearly interest in percentage Smart Contracts — Electronic, digital contracts coded to integrate with dApps. Automated financial agreements between two or more parties once the pre-determined terms of the contract is reached With the rise of Blockchain, Crypto and then Decentralized apps, yield farming was born to address some of the banking system's limits. Or at least, that would be in the perfect world. Yield farming is the process of using DeFi to maximize returns. Users lend or borrow crypto on a DeFi platform and earn cryptocurrency in return for their services. This works for both parties, because yield farmers provide liquidity to various token pairs and you earn rewards in cryptocurrencies. However, yield farming can be a risky practice due to price volatility, rug pulls, smart contract hacks etc. Yield farming allows investors to earn interest which is called ‘yield’ by putting coins or tokens in a dApp, which is an application (coded software) that integrates with blockchain code. Examples of dApps include crypto wallets, exchanges and many more. Yield farmers generally use decentralized exchanges (DEXs) to lend, borrow or stake coins to earn interest and speculate on price swings. Yield farming across DeFi is facilitated by smart contracts. Let’s take a closer look at the different types of yield farming: Liquidity provider: You deposit two coins to a DEX to provide trading liquidity. Exchanges charge a small fee to swap the two tokens which is paid to liquidity providers. This fee can sometimes be paid in new liquidity pool (LP) tokens. Lending: Coin or token holders can lend crypto to borrowers through a smart contract and earn yield from interest paid on the loan. Borrowing: Farmers can use one token as collateral and receive a loan of another. Users can then farm yield with the borrowed coins. This way, the farmer keeps their initial holding, which may increase in value over time, while also earning yield on their borrowed coins. Staking: There are two forms of staking in the world of DeFi. The main form is on proof-of-stake blockchains, where a user is paid interest to pledge their tokens to the network to provide security. The second is to stake LP tokens earned from supplying a DEX with liquidity. This allows users to earn yield twice, as they are paid for supplying liquidity in LP tokens which they can then stake to earn more yield. Yield farmers who want to increase their yield output can also use more complex tactics. For example, yield farmers can constantly shift their cryptos between multiple loan platforms to optimize their gains. Pro Tip: Use a High-Speed, Anonymous VPN. This lets you securely access the internet in an untraceable way. If you’re a cryptocurrency trader, you may want to remain anonymous or mask your IP address to another location. With all of the above mentioned, the first step would be to determine your needs or interests and thereafter, opening an account or accounts. A few popular places to start exploring include: 1. Quint – Voted one of the best yield farming crypto platforms for 2022 2. Uniswap - Second-largest decentralized exchange (DEX) behind Curve Finance 3. YouHodler – Worldwide Exchange with yield farming 4. eToro – Regulated platform offering crypto interest tools 5. Crypto.com – Great platform for earning a high APY on Stablecoins 6. BlockFi – Popular Platform for Bitcoin yields. BlockFi was one of the first platforms to launch its own crypto credit card. The BlockFi Rewards Visa Signature Credit Card earns up to 2% back in the cryptocurrency of your choice and doesn't charge an annual fee 7. Coinbase – Top-Rated yield-generating platform for beginners 8. DeFi Swap – Overall best DeFi yield farming platform 2022 , earning up to 75% APY on DeFi coins 9. AQRU – Voted one of the best crypto Yield farming platforms for 2022 10. Aave - Reigning DeFi king in terms of total value locked Note that the above is in no specific order. On the chart, you will see some fast facts on some of the options that these platforms offer. This is also not a shill, and I am not currently participating in any of the above mentioned. This is just intended as an easy introduction to another branch of what the world of Blockchain and DeFi has to offer. I hope you enjoyed this post today! Please give us a thumbs up to support all the efforts that went into this post. _________________ Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎 Hit like & Follow 👀 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Long
by CryptoCheck-
26
DEFI: UniSwap - ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW 🦄Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉 If you’ve been following me on TradingView for a while, you’ll now that I’m a believer – a believer in the promise of blockchain. One of the principals of this promise is to move away from centrally controlled banking systems. This would eventually include the act of saving and earning interest for the money that you leave in the capable hands of your banker (who also gets to decide whether or not you qualify for loans). Currently, you need to give up all of your personal information to open a bank account and furthermore you are seriously undercut in the returns / interest rate that you will be receiving (to name only two of many problems with the system). For example, where I reside, the most common interest on a savings account is 5% annually, whereas the interest on your credit card is 19.5% annually. And this is, in short, the common argument for Decentralized Finance. Before we continue, familiarize yourself with these key terms: TVL – Total Dollar Value Locked in the platform DEX - A decentralized exchange. DEXs don't allow for exchanges between fiat and crypto — instead, they exclusively trade cryptocurrency tokens for other cryptocurrency tokens. Blockchain – A unique way of coding that is open for anyone to use, many believe that web3 will be built on top this kind of coding DeFi – Decentralized Finance such as cryptocurrencies and stablecoins dApp – Software like apps that work on the basis of blockchain code and thus apps that accommodate cryptocurrency such as UniSwap and NFT Market places LP tokens - New liquidity pool tokens. LP tokens represent a crypto liquidity provider's share of a pool, and the crypto liquidity provider remains entirely in control of the token. For example, if you contribute $10 USD worth of assets to a Balancer pool that has a total worth of $100, you would receive 10% of that pool's LP tokens. APY - Annual Percentage Yield, think of it as yearly interest in percentage Smart Contracts — E lectronic, digital contracts coded to integrate with dApps. Automated financial agreements between two or more parties once the pre-determined terms of the contract is reached Uniswap is a decentralized cryptocurrency exchange that uses a set of smart contracts (liquidity pools) to execute trades on its exchange. It's an open source project and falls into the category of a DeFi product (Decentralized finance) because it uses smart contracts to facilitate trades. Built on Ethereum, Uniswap is the first and largest DEX in DeFi and one of the many places where you can participate in yield farming. To earn interest in their cryptocurrency holdings, investors contribute their funds to a Uniswap smart contract; these investors are known as liquidity providers. The smart contracts that hold their cryptocurrencies are known as liquidity pools. Liquidity providers are required for Uniswap to function since they provide liquidity for trading on the platform. With the rise of Blockchain, Crypto and then Decentralized apps, yield farming was born to address some of the banking system's limits. Or at least, that would be in the perfect world. Yield farming is the process of using DeFi to maximize returns . Users lend or borrow crypto on a DeFi platform and earn cryptocurrency in return for their services. This works for both parties, because yield farmers provide liquidity to various token pairs and you earn rewards in cryptocurrencies. However, yield farming can be a risky practice due to price volatility , rug pulls, smart contract hacks etc. Yield farming allows investors to earn interest which is called ‘yield’ by putting coins or tokens in a dApp, which is an application (coded software) that integrates with blockchain code. Examples of dApps include crypto wallets, exchanges and many more. Yield farmers generally use decentralized exchanges (DEXs) to lend, borrow or stake coins to earn interest and speculate on price swings. Yield farming across DeFi is facilitated by smart contracts. Let’s take a closer look at the different types of yield farming on UniSwap: Liquidity provider: You deposit two coins to a DEX to provide trading liquidity. Exchanges charge a small fee to swap the two tokens which is paid to liquidity providers. This fee can sometimes be paid in new liquidity pool (LP) tokens. Lending: Coin or token holders can lend crypto to borrowers through a smart contract and earn yield from interest paid on the loan. Borrowing: Farmers can use one token as collateral and receive a loan of another. Users can then farm yield with the borrowed coins. This way, the farmer keeps their initial holding, which may increase in value over time, while also earning yield on their borrowed coins. Staking: There are two forms of staking in the world of DeFi. The main form is on proof-of-stake blockchains, where a user is paid interest to pledge their tokens to the network to provide security. The second is to stake LP tokens earned from supplying a DEX with liquidity. This allows users to earn yield twice, as they are paid for supplying liquidity in LP tokens which they can then stake to earn more yield. Yield farmers who want to increase their yield output can also use more complex tactics. For example, yield farmers can constantly shift their cryptos between multiple loan platforms to optimize their gains. Back to DeFi - In centralized finance, your money is held by banks and corporations whose main goal is to make money. The financial system is full of third parties who facilitate money movement between parties, with each one charging fees for using their services. The idea behind DeFi was to create a system that cuts out these third parties, their fees and the time spent on all the interaction between them. Defi is a technology built on top of blockchain - it can be an app or a website for example, which means that is was written in code language by software programmers. It lets users buy and sell virtual assets (like crypto and NFT's) and use financial services as a form of investment or financing without middlemen/banks. This means you can borrow , lend and invest - but without a centralized banking institution. In summary, DeFi is a subcategory within the broader crypto space. DeFi offers many of the services of the mainstream financial world but controlled by the masses instead of a central entity. And instead of your information being filed on paper and stored by a banker, your information is captured digitally and stored in a block with your permission. Many of the initial DeFi applications were built on Ethereum (which is a blockchain technology, but the code is different to Bitcoin's, in other words it operates/works differently). The majority of money in DeFi remains concentrated there. Lending may have started it all, but DeFi applications now have many use cases, giving participants access to saving, investing, trading, market-making and more. Another example of such a market is PancakeSwap (CAKEUSDT). PancakeSwap is also a decentralized exchange native to BNB Chain (Binance chain). In other words, it shares some similarities with UniSwap in that users can swap their coins for other coins. The only difference is that PancakeSwap focuses on BEP20 tokens – a specific token standard developed by Binance. The BEP20 standard is essentially a checklist of functions new tokens must be able to perform in order to be compatible with the broader Binance ecosystem of dapps, wallets and other services. 💭 Final Thoughts 💭 Is yield farming profitable? Short answer - Yes. However, it depends on how much money and effort you’re willing to put into yield farming. Although certain high-risk strategies promise substantial returns, they generally require a thorough grasp of DeFi platforms, protocols and complicated investment chains to be most effective. Is yield farming risky? Short Answer - Absolutely . There are a number of risks that investors should understand before starting. Scams, hacks and losses due to volatility are not uncommon in the DeFi yield farming space. The first step for anyone wishing to use DeFi is to research the most trusted and tested platforms. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Education
by CryptoCheck-
29
How the Fed affects long Bond YieldsInverse chart of US10Y Yield to show changes in Bond prices. Overlayed with the following: Fed Funds Rate US Treasury Deposits to Federal Reserve Banks Increase/Decrease Rate of change to Fed Balance Sheet Balance Sheet Total in separate pane below The USCBBS Percentage Change shows the money raining down :-D It's clear to see the relationship between the Fed buying Treasuries, i.e. Quantitative Easing (QE) and the increase in US10Y prices. Quantitative Tightening (QT) is the name of the game now. There is A LOT of QT left to do, we're at most 25% into QT since the Fed has only rolled off roughly 1Trillion. They likely have 3+ Trillion to go. Expect US10Y to be under continued pressure as long as QT is in effect. Even when Fed Funds rates are lowered it will have little effect on US10Y while the biggest buyer of Treasuries is on hiatus.
TVC:US10Y
by RobBiddle
🔥 Bonds Are Predicting A MASSIVE Crash 🚨The Bond Yield Curve, which can be calculated by substracting the US 2 Year bond yield from the US 10 Year bond yield, has been inversed for quite some time. An inversion of the bond yield basically means that bond traders require higher returns on short-term bonds than on long-term bonds, which translates to short-term bonds being more risky than long-term ones. This only occurs when bond traders anticipate an upcoming crisis. The inversion on itself is not necessarily bearish, but the "un-inversion" is very bearish. As seen on the white chart, once the line crosses the zero line from below, it has always predicted an upcoming crash. With the Bond Yield Curve recently seeing a strong "bullish" move, it's likely that we're going to hit 0% in the near future. Consequently, this signals that a market crash is on the horizon. Whether history will repeat remains to be seen. However, we had one of the strongest yield inversions in history, which doesn't bode well. Do you think that a crash is coming? Share your thoughts and charts.
TVC:US10YShort
by FieryTrading
15
Yield Curve Bottom (10s minus 2s) This is called the "Steepener" trade and refers to a mean reversion in the yield curve. From current level of (-38 basis points, or -0.38%), I'm targeting a move back to 1.00%, or ~70bp, risking down to about (-45bp), or about (-13bp) downside. Yield curve steepeners seek to gain from a greater spread between short- and long-term yields-to-maturity by combining a “long” short-dated bond position with a “short” long-dated bond position, while a flattener involves sale of short-term bonds and purchase of long-term bonds. - CFA Institute
TVC:US10YLong
by jBTCkingaling
1
#JOE/USDT 8h (ByBit) Descending channel on supportTrader Joe is pulling back to 50MA where it seems likely to bounce again. ⚡️⚡️ #JOE/USDT ⚡️⚡️ Exchanges: ByBit USDT Signal Type: Regular (Long) Leverage: Isolated (4.2X) Amount: 4.9% Current Price: 0.25930 Entry Targets: 1) 0.24800 Take-Profit Targets: 1) 0.29595 Stop Targets: 1) 0.22400 Published By: @Zblaba CRYPTOCAP:JOE BYBIT:JOEUSDT.P #TraderJoe #DEx #DeFi traderjoexyz.com Risk/Reward= 1:2.0 Expected Profit= +81.2% Possible Loss= -40.6% Estimated Gaintime= 1-2 weeks
Long
by TradingOn
Will $TNX catch up to shorter term yields?G-Morning! Shorter term yields haven't moved much as of late. Demand has slowed down & this coincides with the expectation that the #fed will be cutting rates soon. The 2Yr #yield recently caught up with the strength of the shorter term #InterestRates & looks to be settling in the area just like the others. On the other end the 10 Yr #yield has been pumping. HAs been strong & hasn't been this overbought since Sept 22. Many compare #InterestRates to GFC (Great Financial Crisis) but they were on their way DOWN vs now, they are on the way up! Back then this was not much of an issue because #debt was SIGNIFICANTLY lower. Compared to Trillions now. TVC:TNX
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
NIFTYBANK:- The 60/40 approach!60/40 is the popular investment strategy that has gone terribly wrong to the international investors. If any it might turn out to be the third year in row. While the liquidity is pouring in the bonds (safety?), the bets for yields fall is coming down. The recent up-move of USD is anything but a factor of another 25 basis point move higher in terms of cost. Not referring directly to us, but in general. FED's Kashkari comments that there is 40% chance rates to go higher pushes the hawkish tone further. He is voting member. His comments about economy hitting soft landing with 60% chances echos mixed voices. (read our last week comments on economy in the substack). With Crude at elevated levels, next week our MPC, higher US dollar, post the Bond Inclusion, it is interesting to take a look at our own bond yields. The graph PIP shows the price action is held the long supply line, now in the shape of bull flag. So, the corrections to continue but the yields appear based. Note the shape of the correction and continuation needs to be read in different ways based on different asset classes, there are no one fit all scales. What is interesting to note with the recent up and down moves, on a three month scale this index is down 120 points. That is, we are where we were three months back. Completely dominated by the PSU pack. On the Index this is not the story, in otherwards, this looks much more beaten than the main index. 44400-44900 are the range to watch and hold before next meaningful move. The banking stocks elsewhere are not in favourable places, partly due to the market-to-market losses, squeeze in NIMS and the broader economic outlook or is there a credit event in the waiting. Citi Share price down near 50% from 80 to 40, mathematically it needs 100% move to reach where it was. Thankfully we are not in that pack. For the day continue grudging moves down first flat next kind of a day one can expect.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by sreebhashyam
$DXY $TNX $VIX stronger than previous recent runsGoing 2b away today meeting with partners. This post might just be the only one today TVC:DXY This is a pretty strong trend. TVC:TNX That last move was stronger than previous, look at the RSI. 10Yr #yield. TVC:VIX This move was also with more strength than previous moves. Conclusion: Our call to end BULL run was spot on. Should've went BEAR, it's what we thought but didn't want to rush. However, we did say that risk was towards the DOWN.
TVC:DXY
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$TX 10Yr has done well while short term yields stagnant, oh ohIt's important to keep and eye on the 10 & 2Yr yields. The inverted #yield curve has huge prediction probability. BUT The strongest aspect of this is when it normalizes. We're not far from that as the10yr has been pumping and the shorter time frames have been pretty stagnant. Now, there's 2 ways this happens. Soft landing, economy slowly recovers OR Lower rates, usually = consequences Guess which is the historical? TVC:TNX
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$TNX, 2Yr Yield, $DXY, $VIX analysisThe 10Yr - TVC:TNX and the 2Yr #yield have held pretty steady the last few days. Won't be shocked if it doesn't do much until the DJ:DJI & TVC:NDQ , "coincidentally", break out of the patterns we've spoken about. TVC:DXY losing a lil bit of steam. Is it topping again? The only odd man out is the $VIX. It's closer to the lower end of range. IMO this is just something to look at and not of much use until it is. September will go out with a BANG!!! One way or another!
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
#AKRO/USDT 2h (ByBit) Ascending channel on resistanceAkropolis printed a shooting star deviation and seems likely to retrace down to 100EMA support, especially with that overbought RSI. ⚡️⚡️ #AKRO/USDT ⚡️⚡️ Exchanges: ByBit USDT Signal Type: Regular (Short) Leverage: Isolated (2.6X) Amount: 4.9% Current Price: 0.018692 Entry Targets: 1) 0.019243 Take-Profit Targets: 1) 0.013254 Stop Targets: 1) 0.022244 Published By: @Zblaba NASDAQ:AKRO BYBIT:AKROUSDT.P #Akropolis #DeFi #DAO Risk/Reward= 1:2.0 Expected Profit= +80.9% Possible Loss= -40.5% Estimated Gaintime= 3-6 days akropolis.io
AShort
by TradingOn
11
Yield on puts options doesnt compensate riskVix is price of call and put 'at the money" annualized. the current vix yield cut in have gives us an estimate of downside premium put sellers collect and buyers are paying. its near 8%. its probably less because there is a slight upward skew. In the last 20 years, there have been times when vix has spiked very high and this "put yield" has been roughly 40% for the downside premium yield. High vix premium is correlated more often with fear to the downside than fear to the upside. Some of you may remember what happened in 2018 when too many put sellers got caught short puts and volatility repriced. they called that one "Volmageddon". volmageddon article here regarding xiv etn blow up: www.ft.com Just be aware that puts selling isnt free money, and sometimes the juice isnt worth the squeeze. Know what you own and be willing to own or get paid to own it at your strikes.
SP:SPX
by optionfarmers
1