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Yieldcurve

SPX - 50W Moving Average in PerilWhats up Traders - As always, the explanation is on the chart. Just some food for thought and concern. I am NOT the only one talking about this by a long shot. Keeping an eye on things, and like most seasoned traders, We are trading with extreme caution right now - - Macro Headwinds - - China - Trade-war / Tariffs November Election / Midterms Saudi Arabia Political Nonsense FED Interest Rates Flattening Yield curve Earnings Season - Seeing reduced outlooks by companies reporting so far. End of the Year Profit Taking Season I dont like it.
SP:SPX
by WillNixTrading
US Yield Curve Underpins US Dollar BuyingEver since mid August, the US Dollar has maintained a much stronger correlation with the US yield curve. To illustrate this relationship, in the chart one can see the curve in blue and the DXY index in green, with the red lines the long and short-dated bond yields. As the focus shifts towards re-pricing a more aggressive Fed cycle, expect the US yield curve to hint directional clues. In the case of Monday's price action, we find the dip in the US Dollar not accompanied by a deterioration of the yield curve, and therefore may be conceived as a potential opportunity to engage in long-sided business in the USD at the right price levels, which is obviously dependent on one's trading profile.
TVC:US10YLong
by FlowState
1
Break of TL in Fav Fed Yield Curve, More USD Strength Ahead?Last week, when scoping out the latest movements in the US yield curve, a noticeable pattern arose. It came to our attention, via a report by Morgan Stanley, that it was the first time this year that the US Dollar index had been depreciating during a flattening of the curve, represented by a blue rectangle (yellow rectangles show the flattening of the curve not altering USD value). This is significant as it implied a slowdown in US capital inflows, which paved the way for a case in which it would allow us to assume, until proven wrong, the utilization of the curve as a more accurate predictor of the state of demand and supply for credit in the US, with an increase of the curve meaning higher demand for credit and lesser supply of capital by reduction in savings, and viceversa. Barring no further distortion in the interpretation of the US yield curve via re-shift in capital inflows, it suggests that for now, with the steepening of the curve once again, the market is turning more positive on both the USD and the economy. Visually, one can notice that each recent break of the trendline has served as the trigger for the correction higher in the curve.
TVC:US10YLong
by FlowState
Bonds Remain IrrationalRegarding today's bond market behavior, I am reminded of the following words of wisdom mostly attributed to the economist John Maynard Keynes: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." From Trump's successful efforts in negotiating an end to a 70 year North/South Korean war, and denuclearization of NoKo, to the Fed raising interest rates hawkishly, to the ECB finally declaring an end to QE, everything seemed to support the bond market collapsing further. My original profit target in ZN1! was right about where the red arrow is. I anticipated it to retrace the entire move from the FOMC meeting. Perhaps it is because the bond market is historically bearish. Perhaps it is because big players are cashing out of their net short positions, or because insiders know something we don't, but US treasuries have stabilized and have formed a range, if not a bull flag. The Kovach Indicators (at the bottom) show a solid bullish trend, and we have broken numerous levels of resistance. Perhaps we need more data events like the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, or Consumer Sentiment tomorrow to help this sleeping giant awaken once more.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
4
10-year yield curve US-German comparison...10-year yield curve US-German comparison. The comparison aims at further understanding the EURUSD track. The DE10Y yield curve shows that the decreasing correction structure (red line) is shorter. But it can also be seen that the size of the fractals (green wave) before them is getting smaller. It can have two consequences. The first is that a drop in yields is expected in the short term. Then there will be a very flat rise in yield. Conversely, the US10Y yield curve surpassed 3% and showed a strong upward trend. Currently it has a target level of 3.75%. This difference may favor the dollar. The conclusion is that the US dollar may continue to strengthen in the short to medium term.
TVC:US10Y
by meszaros
German 2y Yield to go higher (US2Y vs GE2Y yield sprd too wide?)US 2y yield (blue line) vs GER 2y yield (red line)...The spread is immensely wide as the FED has been in a hiking phase wile the ECB still continues to apply a "whatever-it-takes policy". Eventually the ECB policy will have to roll back and front-end yields will react by backing up. I believe the German 2y yield will eventually move higher and lead the narrowing of the US-GER 2y spread gap. This also makes the case for a Eurozone (i.e. German) curve flattener attractive at these levels.
TVC:US02YShort
by arigolden
1
German Yield Curve Flattens as EU Problems Sink inAlthough the fake news would have you believe that the Eurozone is fast on its way to recovery, it is still mired with issues and the failed Euro is taking its toll on German yields. There is still geopolitical tension, a migrant crisis, and a huge stagnation in inflation that extends to the entire developed world. The Kovach Chande is incredibly bearish and we are testing the lower bound of the Kovach Reversals Indicator. Look for a brief pullback from this lower bound before it presses further. Check out the Kovach Indicators here !
TVC:GB10YShort
by quantguy
Yield Curve Below 1%, Racing to the BottomThe yield curve (spread between the 30 year and 2 year spread) just broke below 1%. All indicators suggest this trend to continue. It has been encroaching the lower Bollinger Band of the Kovach Reversals Indicator, with no retracement in sight. A retracement will be confirmed by a green triangle, if an when it happens. The Federal reserve should be very mindful of this in their December meeting. If you're interested in the Kovach Reversals Indicator and more, sign up for access at quantguy.net!
TVC:US30YShort
by quantguy