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Yieldcurvecontrol

GBPJPY: Thoughts and Analysis Post-BOJToday's focus: GBPJPY Pattern – Continuation/resistance test? Support – 188.20 Resistance – 191.15 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at the GBPJPY daily. The BOJ lifted rates today to 0.10%, breaking the run of negative rates and showing a change in direction not seen since 2007. The BOJ also advised an end to yield curve control and ETF purchases. This had a negative effect on the JPY and sent majors higher. The GBPJPY has added up to 0.73% in today's session and has come close to testing resistance. We want to see a break of resistance to show a new continuation higher. A stall at resistance could set up a new move lower. If we see a new move to 190 and above, could we see the BOJ step in? Good trading.
Long
by Eightcap
Markets embrace the Higher-for-Longer themeIt has been a big week of central bank policy announcements. While central banks in the US, UK, Switzerland, and Japan left key policy rates unchanged, the trajectory ahead remains vastly different. These central bank announcements were accompanied by a significant upward breakout in bond yields. Interestingly most of the increase in yields has been driven by higher real yields rather than breakeven inflation signifying a tightening of conditions. The bond markets appear to be acknowledging that until recession hits, yields are likely to keep rising. Connecting the dots The current stance of monetary policy continues to remain restrictive. The Fed’s dot plot, which the US central bank uses to signal its outlook for the path of interest rates, shows the median year-end projection for the federal funds rate at 5.6%. The dot plot of rate projections shows policymakers (12 of the 19 policymakers) still foresee one more rate hike this year. Furthermore, the 2024 and 2025 rate projections notched up by 50Bps, a signal the Fed expects rates to stay higher for longer. The key surprise was the upgrade in growth and unemployment projections beyond 2023, suggesting a more optimistic outlook on the economy. The Fed’s caution is justified amidst the prevailing headwinds – higher oil prices, the resumption of student loan payments, the United Auto Workers strike, and a potential government shutdown. Quantitative tightening continues on autopilot, with the Fed continuing to shrink its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. Risk assets such as equities, credit struggled this week as US yields continued to grind higher. The correction in risk assets remains supportive for the US dollar. A hawkish pause by the Bank of England In sharp contrast to the US, economic data has weakened across the board in the UK, with the exception of wage growth. The weakness in labour markets is likely to feed through into lower wages as discussed here. After 14 straights rate hikes, the weaker economic backdrop in the UK coupled with falling inflation influenced the Bank of England’s (BOE) decision to keep rates on hold at 5.25%. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was keen to stress that interest rates are likely to stay at current levels for an extended period and only if there was evidence of persistent inflation pressures would further tightening in policy be required. By the next meeting in November, we expect economic conditions to move in the MPC’s favour and wage growth to have eased materially. As inflation declines, the rise in real interest rates is likely to drag the economy lower without the MPC having to raise interest rates further. That said, the MPC is unlikely to start cutting rates until this time next year and even then, we only expect to see a gradual decline in rates. Bank of Japan maintains a dovish stance Having just tweaked Yield Curve Control (YCC) at its prior Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM) on 28 July, the Bank of Japan decided to keep its ultra easy monetary settings unchanged. The BOJ expects inflation to decelerate and said core inflation has been around 3% owing to pass-through price increases. Governor Ueda confirmed that only if inflation accompanied by the wages goal was in sight would the BOJ consider an end to YCC and a rate shift. With its loose monetary policy, the BOJ has been an outlier among major central banks like the Fed, ECB and BOE which have all been hiking interest rates. That policy divergence has been a key driver of the yen’s weakness. While headline inflation in Japan has been declining, core inflation has remained persistently higher. The BOJ meeting confirmed that there is still some time before the BOJ exits from negative interest rate policy which is likely to keep the Yen under pressure. The developments in US Monetary Policy feeding into a stronger US dollar are also likely to exert further downside pressure on the Yen. This year global investors have taken note that Japanese stocks are benefitting from the weaker Yen, relatively cheaper valuations and a long-waited return of inflation. Japanese companies are also becoming more receptive to corporate reform and shareholder engagement. Adopting a hedged Japanese exposure Taking a hedged exposure to dividend paying Japanese equities would be a prudent approach amidst the weaker yen. This goes to a point we often make - currency changes do not need to impact your foreign return, and you can target that local market return by hedging your currency risk. A hedged Japanese dividend paying equity exposure could enable an investor to hedge their exposure to the Yen. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Editors' picks
TVC:US10Y
by aneekaguptaWTE
1
Bank of Japan sitting on the fence on easy policy exitCentral banks packed quite a punch last week. Unlike the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank that raised policy rates by 25Bps, as was widely anticipated, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on July 28 unexpectedly decided to tweak the Yield Curve Control (YCC) band. The BOJ begins its withdrawal from YCC It will now allow some deviation above the long-term rate cap of 0.5% and has raised the rate for its 10yr Japanese Government Bond (JGB) fixed-rate purchase operations to 1%. They are effectively doubling their YCC band as it has outlived its purpose over the last seven years. This is despite Governor Kazuo Ueda stressing the BOJs patience a week prior to the meeting leading to 82% of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting no change. There is a strong likelihood the decision was made because the market was least expecting it, similar to the last YCC policy tweak made in December 2022. As it helps avoid the inevitable speculation about the impact of the change on the JGB curve thereby forcing the BOJ to step up its interventions. It’s hard to determine whether the new YCC with greater flexibility and nimble responses in its purchase schedule will achieve the BOJs goal of sustainable and stable achievement of the 2% inflation target. Longer dated JGB yields are likely to stay under upward pressure until clearer signs emerge that Japanese inflation and wage pressure are easing again. Core inflation at highest level since 1982 The deflationary headwinds confronting Japan have been around for decades. Signs of change have been seen in firms’ wage- and price-setting behaviour, and inflation expectations have shown some upward movements again (as seen in the chart above). Spring in Japan is the season for shunto, the annual wage negotiations between company management and unions. This year some firms have already announced significant wage hikes in response to a tightening labour market and rising inflation. May wages rose by 2.9%1. However, a large part of the increase was tied to bonuses. Real wages fell by less but continued to decline by 0.9%2. Japanese headline inflation stayed at 3.2% year on year in July for three consecutive months3. However, core inflation excluding fresh food and energy, reaccelerated to 4.2%, marking the highest level since April 1982. Looking ahead, headline inflation will likely slow owing to falling global commodity prices and base effects but core inflation will likely remain higher owing to structural change in the labour market. BOJ struck a dovish tone with below target inflation forecasts The BOJ’s inflation forecasts for the fiscal years ahead are expected to slow further. The BoJ lowered its (median) forecast for FY2024 to +1.9%4 and left its FY2025 projection unchanged at +1.6%3, in effect justifying ongoing easing from the Bank of Japan. BoJ Governor Ueda mentioned at the press conference that there is still some distance to foresee 2% price stability target in a stable and sustainable manner given our inflation outlook for FY2024 and FY2025. This echoes a dovish narrative on the new YCC regime and a continued communication that the BOJ intends to in effect ease policy by still increasing the monetary base via fixed operations. More volatility beckons for risk assets The initial response to the BOJs surprise decision was a sharp rise in Japanese bond yields. Japan’s benchmark bond yields surged, extending gains above the central bank’s previous 0.5% cap. The yen whipsawed, falling more than 1% before reversing course and rallying to trade about the same amount higher. On Monday 31st July, the BOJ sprung another surprise announcement (2 days post the BOJ meeting) of an unscheduled bond-purchase operation to stem the rise in yields5. The BOJ intends to purchase ¥300Bn of five-to-10-year notes at market yields. This serves as an important reminder that the flexibility is intertwined with opaqueness, as the BOJ can intervene at any time (between 0.5% to 1%) which will continue to stoke volatility across risk assets. The BOJ has positioned the YCC as enhancing sustainability of its current accommodative policy. With Japan’s monetary environment likely to be kept relatively loose, the yen is likely to trade in a volatile range for the remainder of 2023. Sources 1 Bloomberg as of 31 May 2023 2 Bloomberg 31 May 2023 3 Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication as of 20 July 2023 4 Bank of Japan as of 28 July 2023 5 Bloomberg as of 31 July 2023 This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
FRED:NIKKEI225
by aneekaguptaWTE
BluetonaFX - USDJPY Yen Under Serious PressureHi Traders! The Japanese yen seems to be under pressure from the US dollar, and it could be under further pressure by the time of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) press conference at the end of next week. The markets will be looking out for the BoJ's outlook on Yield Curve Control (YCC) in regards to Japan's inflation problems; otherwise, the bearish outlook for the yen is likely to continue. From a technical standpoint, USDJPY is trading with momentum, and we may see a retest of the 145.073 resistance level. Here on the 1W chart, we can see that the market held above the key support level at 137.915. After the price rejection at 137.915, we broke back above 140 and are now trading comfortably in the 141 area. If the Federal Reserve increases interest rates next week, further bullish waves are highly likely. The BoJ's press conference will be at the end of the week, after the Fed's decision, so by then, the yen could be under serious pressure. If 145.073 breaks and the yen's outlook is seriously weak, then we have our long-term Apex level at 151.946 marked on the chart. Please do not forget to like, comment, and follow, as your support greatly helps us. Thank you for your support! BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
USD/JPY - Yen slides as Ueda says no plans for policy shiftBank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke at his first news conference as head of the central bank today. It wasn't quite a State of the Union address, but Ueda's message was clear - the current monetary policy was appropriate and he had no plans to make any major shifts. There has been strong speculation that Ueda will make some significant moves, perhaps not right away but in the next few months. After years of battling deflation, Japan is facing inflation which has risen above the BoJ's 2% target. The US/Japan rate differential has been widening as the Fed continues to raise rates while the BoJ has capped yields on 10-year government bonds and interest rates remain negative. The changing of the guard at the BoJ seemed to some as an opportunity for BOJ policy makers to take some steps toward normalization, such as tweaking or even removing yield curve control. Ueda poured cold water on this sentiment, stating that, “Right now, the yield curve control is considered most appropriate for the economy while tending to market functionality”. Ueda's message of "stay tuned for more of the same" has lowered expectations of a policy shift at the April 28th meeting and the yen has responded with sharp losses. Japan's consumer confidence gave policy makers something to cheer about, rising to 33.9 in March, vs. 33.1 prior and 30.9 anticipated. This was the highest level since May 2022, although consumer confidence remains deep in negative territory, below the 50-level which separates contraction from expansion. The week ended with a solid US employment report. The economy added 236,000 jobs last month, within expectations and softer than the upwardly revised 326,000 reading in February. The labour market is cooling but has been surprisingly resilient to relentless rate hikes and the odds of a 25-bp rate hike have increased to 68% according to the CME Group, compared to around 50% prior to the employment report release. There is resistance at 133.74 and 135.31 132.18 and 131.67 are providing support
by OANDA
The end of an era.This week, the Bank of Japan governor’s Kuroda’s decade long term comes to an end. As such we would like to take some time to review what this means for the Yen and in particular, the AUDJPY. Firstly, central bank timings. In case you missed it, last Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) snapped its consecutive 10 rate hikes, being the second major central bank in developed markets to pause after the Bank of Canada. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) inaction thus far, is in stark contrast to the rest of the world. Kuroda officially ends his second 5-year term. With the new Governor Ueda at the helm, we think a move away from the current policy stance is very likely for BOJ as inflation remains uncharacteristically high for Japan and unemployment still relatively contained. A shift in the BOJ’s policies could mean the end of the largely debatable Yield Curve Control (YCC) policies, either in the form of abandonment or yet another change to the policy band or target yield as it repeatedly trades close to the upper limit of the currently allowed range. In fact, the OIS Implied rates for the 10-year Japanese gov yields show a huge disparity from the BOJ’s policy ceiling of 0.5%. While it has corrected from the high, it still trades north of the 0.5% cap by a clear margin, indicating market participants’ expectations that the yield cap is likely to be abandoned or shifted higher again. Coincidentally, the BOJ can take a page out of the RBA’s book, where RBA faced an almost identical situation, when in 2021 it was forced to abandon its three-year yield target. Once it lost control, yield quickly shot up there after. If or when the BOJ lose control of its YCC program, this warrants a peek into what might happen to Japanese Yields. Market expectations of forward rates are completely opposite for these two countries, with participants expecting the RBA to execute multiple rates cut through 2023, while Japan is expected to hike rates. So what does this mean for the currency pair? Well one way to look at this is the real yield differential between Japan (JP) and Australia (AU). When the AU – JP yield differential collapses, the AUDJPY tends to follow suit. If RBA is to hold rates, while the BOJ is to raise, we could see this yield differential collapse from here, paving the path for the next downward move in the currency pair. On the technical front, the AUDJPY is trading near its upper resistance of a four decade long descending triangle. On a daily timeframe, although the pair's first attempt to break below the 88 handle was short-lived, it now sits just above this support, which could lead to a second coming. Of course, such a trade might take a while to play out given the decade long chart pattern as well as fundamental factors such as central banks’ policy shifts. Looking ahead, the next potential catalyst could be the Bank of Japan’s first meeting under a new leadership on the 27/28th of April, while the RBA’s next meeting is scheduled for 2nd of May. To express this view, one option is to use the CME AUDJPY currency pair, which allows you to short the currency pair directly. Alternatively, if liquidity and contract size are of concern, the same view can be expressed by selling one Micro USDJPY Futures and buying two Micro AUDUSD Futures to construct a synthetic AUDJPY pair. Setting up the AUDJPY currency pair this way allows a more palatable trade as the notional amount is on roughly 20,000 AUD or 10,000 USD. This synthetic set-up allows us to access a more liquid market in both contracts compared with the full sized one. Using the descending triangle structure as a guide, we set our stops at 94, close to the previous resistance and our take profit at 70. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
AShort
by inspirante
Interest rates are moving againWhat is moving this week? Our weekly eyeball into the different markets. Interest rates likely to be breaking its all time high again, get ready for another volatile month ahead. Difference between yield and interest rate: Borrowers take reference from interest rates and lenders take reference on the yield. Interest rates and yield moves in tandem. Minimum price fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by konhow
A Rate Hike Before 2024? (04 November 2021)The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) concluded its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday with no change in its weekly A$4 billion bond purchases, aka quantitative easing (QE), while holding interest rate unchanged at 0.10%. What has changed during this meeting is the ending of the central bank’s yield curve control (YCC). Dropping the YCC It all began when the RBA carried out an unscheduled purchase of A$1 billion of April 2024 Australian government bond back in 22 October in an attempt to tame the rising yield, bringing it back down to the central bank’s 0.10% target. Towards the end of October, yield on the April 2024 bond sky-rocketed to 0.75%, the biggest monthly increase since 1994. This time round however, the RBA did not attempt to bring down the yield to its target through any purchase of bonds, leaving the market to speculate that the RBA may be discontinuing its YCC during its November meeting. The decision to end the YCC “reflects the improvement in the economy and the earlier-than-expected progress towards the inflation target” as explained in the rate statement. With the rise of interest rates from other markets, the central bank felt that the efficacy of the YCC has vanished. An earlier rate hike timeline The RBA has repeatedly emphasized that an interest rate hike will be considered only when inflation is sustainably achieved within its 2-3% target. Prior to the November’s meeting, the central bank forecasts that this condition “will not be met before 2024”. However, it has revised this forecast somewhat optimistically in yesterday’s statement, indicating that: “The Board is prepared to be patient, with the central forecast being for underlying inflation to be no higher than 2½ per cent at the end of 2023 and for only a gradual increase in wages growth.” With this revision, the RBA is now implying the possibility of inflation coming into the 2-3% targeted range at the end of 2023. This means it is fair game for the central bank to carry forward its rate hike timeline. Overall positive economic projections The RBA’s quarterly economic projections for 2022 and 2023 have underwent positive revisions. Specifically, inflation projection has been revised upwards which is good as it is the main deciding factor of a rate hike from the central bank. The RBA now expects inflation to fall within their 2-3% target for 2022 and 2023. For year 2022, GDP: 5.50% (a little over 4.00%) Unemployment: 4.25% (4.25%) CPI Inflation: 2.25% (1.75%) For year 2023, GDP: 2.50% (2.50%) Unemployment: 4.00% (4.00%) CPI Inflation: 2.50% (2.25%) *Figures shown in parentheses refers to projections from August 2021
by GH_Lee
2
Next bubble popEach time that the cost of money increments, the bubble of the moment pops. If you check carefully, the parallel channel's upper bands (yellow ones) play the trend resistance role. If those bands are touched, I can reasonably assure that the FED will intervene in the bond market with Yield Curve Control (you don't want to have the biggest economy of the world be insolvent). The intensity of their intervention will depend on the slope of the recent spike. If the previous description occurs, the only indicator left that we will have for checking the debt market's actual economic reality is the 30-year yield. It is highly improbable that the central banks intervene those yields due to the distance in the final payment. Any thoughts or opinions are more than welcome.
TVC:TNX
by LiquidityMaster
1
Scenarios for yield curve control.After the bull run (due to the cut of the interest rates and Quantitative easing from the FED), the LDQ ETF has been distributing since late July. Historically, the 0.786 and the 0.618 retracements are an inflection point, where the previous trend reverses. We can see this pattern in all assets with an institutional interest. Until now, the FED is letting the inflation expectations run to justify later the money printing and yield curve control. Therefore, I expect a five-wave impulse to the downside or maybe a big ZigZag around the retracements mentioned before.
AMEX:LQDShort
by LiquidityMaster
The myth of hyperinflation series- #2. Fed's toolsEvolution of Fed's QE- Treasury/municipal bonds-> corporate bond ETF-> individual corporate bond-> Yield curve control (in potential development)-> Maybe... Individual stocks in the future... As Fed adds more debts to its balance sheet, it hampers its ability to effectively intervene the market in the future. It will need progressively more and more stimulus packages to get us out of the subsequent financial crisis. Forward guidance- Odyssean forward guidance: Fed publicly commits the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to a future action. Delphic forward guidance: Fed merely forecasts macroeconomic performance and likely monetary policy actions. Try to imagine the following highly improbable scenario- If Fed announces tomorrow that it will raise interest rate to 10 percent and slashes all the govt bonds on its balance sheet, how will the market react? Even something much less extreme of an announcement will and can drive the public sentiment and change the public perception of the market instantly even before the action is actually carried out. Now, that is the power of forward guidance. Yield curve control (YCC)- Basically, Fed has strong control over the short-term interest rate, but much less so on the long-term interest rate. In order to influence the long-term yield, Fed would shift purchase toward longer maturities and target some longer-term rate and pledge to buy enough long-term bonds to keep the rate from rising above its target. Fed employs the strategy of selling short-term treasuries and uses the funds to buy longer-term bonds in order to stimulate and spur borrowing, investment and economy if brings short-term rates to zero isn't enough. Next, we will look at how effective these tools really are by examining few of Fed's past market interventions.
Editors' picks
TVC:DXYEducation
by Libratus
25
Distortion & misallocation & wealth transferThe chart says it all. 3 trillion increase in balance sheet in 2 or 3 months... Party will go on as long as the long-term interest rate remains low... Distortion - The massive rally has been partially fueled by $l8 trillion worth of fiscal and central bank stimulus. Short-term lending rate cut to near zero and long-term interest rates dropped to near all time low caused by massive QE. Massive QE has distorted the interest rate so that the cost of capital is kept artificially low to the point that company is justified to undertake many projects that would not yield any productive return under the normal circumstances Evolution of Fed's QE - Treasury/municipal bonds-> corporate bond ETF-> individual corporate bond-> Yield curve control (in potential development)-> Maybe... Individual stocks in the future... Even though Fed's purchase of individual bonds and ETF accounted for just a small percentage of overall bond market, I can't help but wonder why the Fed included lower-medium grade/slightly speculative bonds and bonds issued by financially healthy companies such as AT&T, UnitedHealth Group, and Walmart ?... to name a few. Easy credit has undoubtedly kept some zombie company afloat when it is probably better for them to die off. QE and forward guidance have resulted in high commercial bank deposits. Fortunately, as long as the circulation of velocity remains low and producer can keep up with the demand of good and service, the economy will not overheat. Misallocation of capital - It is no surprise that American household's wealth is increasingly tied to stock market & real estate. As a result, there is a negative correlation between household wealth and interest rate. The increased household consumption that results from the perceived gain in the stock market & real estate driven by low interest rate is the main culprit of chronic trade deficit. Oh yeah, FAANG now collectively accounts for roughly 20% of top stock marketcap... If it does not convince you that stock market is overvalued, just look at the ratio of total market cap over GDP (currently at 147.2%) and Shiller PE which is 13.1% higher than the recent 20-year average of 25.8. Wealth transfer - Pension fund, endowment, mutual fund and hedge fund are having a field day. Maybe just a handful of investment groups are dictating the movement of the market. BlackRock alone has more than 7 trillion of AUM. Goldman Sachs, Bridgewater and few other investment groups also each controls more than hundred billions of asset. It is hard to image that the quick reversal in the market is caused by a bunch of retail investors and traders panic sold in March, then immediately FOMO back into the market only a few weeks later.
TVC:SPXEducation
by Libratus
4