Those who have been reading our past 2 ideas will know we’ve been harping on and on about expected rate path and policy timelines. Why the recent obsession you ask? Because we think we’re on the cusp of major turning points.
So, for the third time, let’s look at the market’s expected policy rate path.
With FOMC coming up this week, we are expecting a 25bps...
It’s been a while since we looked at the Russell 2000. For the uninitiated, the Russell 2000 index is a small-cap stock market index that is made up of the smallest 2000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index.
The small-cap nature means a few things, volatility tends to be higher for one. And capturing this downside volatility using the Russell 2000 as compared with...
Fed Funds Futures (ZQ) CBOT:ZQ1! , 2-Yr Yield (2YY) CBOT_MINI:2YY1! , 10-Yr Yield (10Y) CBOT_MINI:10Y1!
This is the third report in the series “Year of the Rabbit: Short-tailed Trading”.
US Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined 0.1% in December 2022 on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1% in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics...
This post will provide a quick macro update concerning the yield curve inversion in US bond markets, which have often (though not always) been followed by a bear market in equities.
Note the various yield curve inversions in the 10-2 Treasury yield. This compares the 10Y US Treasury yield with the 2Y US Treasury yield , and when the 2Y yield exceeds the 10Y...
US10Y treasury yield minus US02Y treasury yield is an accurate predictor of impending economic recession. Here we compare the 10 Aug 2022 yield curve inversion low point to the low points in 2007 and 2000 that pre-dated the Great Recession and Dot Com stock market crashes. While a small inversion (below 0) does not always pre-date a recession, inversions as low as...
We're quickly approaching all time lows on the 10yr-2yr yield inversion chart. However, in the past the rates inverted at the end of the rate hike cycle. This time we inverted from the start of the hikes and aren't even half way to the Fed's goal of 3.5%. So we are in uncharted territory with the bond market.
Note, crashes followed the yield inversion, as rates...
Well, it has happened again!
We of course see the 2yr/10yr yield curve inversion:
It has been like this for some time. However, all I hear is: “But this time it is different!”
The U.S. curve has inverted before EACH recession since 1955, with a recession following consistently between 6-24 months after. Only one time in this time-frame has this...
The Yield curve has inverted a second time this year, signaling the shift away from short term treasuries into longer term treasuries. This has always been the signal going into recession.
i think this is headed for a terminal thrust or wave 5, and abc will correct on some support in the given lower ranges TLT. after seein all time highs, i believe the 10 year will fade if it enters weekly consolidation, and fails some break out level forming a false breakout of upper 90% range. TLT is on watch for bullish divergence macd, stoch, rsi monthly
$BTC & $ETH : what “if” scenario.
Inv. Yield Curve potentially spoiling the risk-on environment but not without putting on a deceptive bull market first 🙃
More than average, a few months to a year of a growing equity market occurs from when a 2Y and 10Y yield curve inverts. The downturn is a surprise but has more likely occurred a year - to 2 years after the...
In the current environment, gold has started to regain strength, supported by a long-term bullish trend structure.
We find ourselves with results of high inflation, and with an economic conflict that significantly affects the price of metals.
Gold may hit highs and function as a safe haven from persistent inflation and the fallout from the Russia-NATO conflict.
1987: Inflation was 3.7% and Yield 7%. The Trendline has been broken twice. Above 3.5% will have a Recession and with a 7% Yield, we'll get a 50%-60% S&P500 correction.
Dark time is coming.
Let's also consider that the actual overall debt is huge. Much much larger than in 1987 so the problems could be much worse. I guess they should invent another Plan-demic or...
The US5Y looks ready to break above the US10Y rate for bonds , signaling an inversion of the yield curve, the number one precursor to each recession in the US. The 10 year is sitting 3/1000 of a percent higher right now. When they cross I expect the market to turn red today.
The breakout of the US10Y from its cup and handle pattern dating back to June 2019...
The lowest-rated debt keeps outperforming safer securities, with investors apparently more concerned about Treasury yields moving higher than credit risk. Investors are now demanding the least extra yield to own junk bonds over investment-grade notes since 2014.
Rising treasury yields implies one of two scenarios is happening or about to happen.
1. Global...
Intermarket correlation between Dow Jones and Louis Vuitton , and the fractal correlation between Yield curve ( US 10Y - US 02 Y ) and NZD AUD shift forward 353 weeks ,this technique of moving forward is used by Larry Williams and aims to align the same Wyckoff phases of two out of phase, unrelated graphs. The Yield curve is the most powerful indicator for the...
Dow Jones dropped over 1200 points in one day, that's the biggest downward move ever happen.
Interest rates are going down FED Watch Tool shows over 99% that FED will cut at least 25pts.
More cuts will come soon, please check www.cmegroup.com
I follow this website and 3-5 days ago there was only 10% for a single interest rate cut.
Unfortunately, due to the...
This is a Weekly Chart of the US10Y yield minus the US02Y yield. (This composite is sometimes referred to as the Yield Curve and if the spread or difference goes below 0.000, then that phenomena is termed to as Yield Curve Inversion).
This spread is widely followed worldwide as any number below or close to 0 tends to indicate impending slowdown in the US Economy,...
