With inflation finally cooling and the Fed signaling rate cuts, it seems relief is on the horizon—until you look at the job market. As recession risks grow and Treasury yields falter, a steepening yield curve presents a compelling opportunity. Positioning in the yield curve ahead of the FOMC meeting offers a more measured way to navigate the uncertainty. ...
Lower inflation and interest rates do not necessarily mean that prices will decrease. If I annualize the inflation numbers instead of focusing on the monthly figures, the overall picture becomes much clearer. 2 and 10 Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY, 10Y Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • ...
As the tides of economic fortune ebb and flow, a spectre of recession looms over the horizon, whispering in the rustling of Treasury yields and the shifting sands of macroeconomic indicators. Recent economic data has painted a complex tableau of financial uncertainty. From declining PMI figures to a palpable deceleration in GDP growth, the economic forecast has...
Markets are notorious for exaggerated expectations. They sense a tiger when all they see is a cat. Expectations on rate cuts have been no different. Despite the Fed’s speak on measured changes to policy rates, markets got ahead of themselves since late last year. Markets are now starting to align their expectations with reality. US economic data from January...