7-10 Year Bonds May be Ready To Go Up due to the FOMC ActionsI will be buying bullish exposure to 7 and 10 year treasuries as a result of topping out inflation and the fed's aggressive actions to kerep it down.
Yields
Bearish Divergence on the US10 Year YieldIf we can see tthis begin to come down from here we will see stock continue up and the dollar return down.
SPY / ES / SPX - Market Structure & PostureWeekly Engulfing Charts are clearly not a preferred look for the Buy Side and those
riding the Bullish Tilt-O-Whirl - Bodies are being flung everywhere.
The Dollar is doing its thing, it ran to our PO at 107.65 with a 107.67 print and
reversed yet again. it's been a pattern as the EuroDollar continues the ties that
bind, Dollar shortages create demand until the Dollar is dethroned.
Sell Side has lifted the CBOE P/C to (.82).
Please note after the brutal June 17th 4X - we reversed very hard the following Monday.
For Roll out the Options Curve - it's muted Frankly. Traders took their Bags, packed up, and headed
off to parts unknown.
That said... Bulls may have a chance to hold and to have... "may" - as horrific as it looks,
Wall Street may surprise with a short Countertrend to shake off the Late chasers. Again it
is "may" not will - It is, however, exactly what I would do.
There simply isn't enough Capital to transfer in the leveraged deep end of the Pool. It
seems there is another attraction elsewhere for now - unaware of any real contests outside
of the Lounge, but the lizards are somewhere, for certain.
Sentiment everywhere is pure doom, gloom, and kaboom. Understandably so after Teton
Jerry and CPI - it's been a brutal month for Buyers. Wrecked and Raked at every turn.
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Here's O/I for SPY into Month End by Expiry:
SPY 9/19 Exp - Very Low Participation
SPY 9/21 Exp - Moderate Participation (FOMC) / VIX Roll/Settle Complete 4 PN EST on 9/20)
SPY 9/23 Exp - 360 Participation @ ~70K
SPY 9/26 Exp - Very Low Participation
SPY 9/28 Exp - Very Low Participation
SPY 9/30 Exp - Very High Participation @ 390 @ 102K / 385 @ 134K / 370 @ 143K / 350 @ 120K
October Monthly Expiry needs those traveling to parts unknown, requiring some time to re-engage.
It is important to note the early & largest entry for October was 372 Puts.
On to the Chart
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Charts are simple messy, mixed, and have the appearance of that "double bottom" in trade
and quickly... which may be why it doesn't happen.
The KEY Line in the Sand is not the Lows, it is the dip in below 3588 - that is a number
so please commit it to memory, breaking it.. assure a return to far lower lows, but
over time.
We completed Day 21 of this downside Crush from Wall Street. The Financial Media has been
abuzz about multiple contractions after spending weeks supporting "Pivot Chatter" and, surprise,
"Multiple Expansion" - remarkable anyone listens.
For "Time" we need a breather... soon. it's important to remember the ES defended the
FHWB - all-time highs to lows @ 3849.50 @ 3853.
Structurally - it looks bleak. I mean look at it... it's terrible. Longer Term, even worse - but
that is for later, for now, it's interesting... and it is quite possible we get a larger counter-trend
Squeeze developing this week. A very nasty one... quite possibly.
RSI STO supports its development near term. Best to be agile and not be caught offsides, as
fear is grinding lower - currently @ 36 as the September Vix settles on - Powell the 21st.
Jerry's arrival Wednesday with 75BPS most likely, as 100BPS I was looking for may be split to
the November FOMC as it appears to be 75BPS as well. The Ministry of Financial Truth was
out early in the week touting100 only to hear JPM quash that with "The Fed isn't going to raise
100BPS, but 75BPS".
We will see, I'm non-plussed with Forward Rates trading @ 4.5%. Yields have gone vertical... never
a good thing, not ever. Institutions apparently now consider the 1 & 2-year pristine collateral.
I had to laugh when Bloomberg touted - "Yes but the 30/90 Day are not inverted~!" Oh, Hooray
for this - perhaps it's the fact Yellen curtailed issuance to non-existent and the Market for the
very short end of the Curve... is not trading any real liquidity.
Something is going to give - but in a most unusual way. Yes, valuations will be corrected further.
Of this there is little doubt, it's how it occurs that traders seize.
Wall Street enjoys a nice lift ahead of EPS Season... with Powell stuck squarely in the middle.
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Capitulation IndicatorThe 30:10 Treasury Bond Yield Spread is a simple Ratio difference between the 30-Year Treasury Bond Rate
and the 10-YearTreasury Bond Rate.
A Large exodus from high Beta/Rho correlated Assets to perceived Safe Havens.
Presently the best-performing and most stable Asset of 2022 has been Cash - The US Dollar Index was 94.63
in mid-January to a high of 110.78 - a return of 17.066%.
Both the 30:10 Ratio and DXY performance are indicating an extreme lack of confidence in the strength of
the Economy.
Quite recently Cross Flows among Capital Stocks - largest Inflows this week are 2-year Treasury Bills @ 288%.
The flow was Net Cash to the Curve by Institutional Investors.
Concerns are rising with respect to both the return of Capital as well as the return on Captial.
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$3.196 Trillion across - Stock Index Futures, Stock Index Options, Stock Options, & Single Stock Futures.
P/C remains elevated @ .72 with .76 being the Pivot.
The LIS for 4X Expiry is SPX 3900, we will need to see Open Interest activity as the Day progresses.
It will either be supported for the Close or it will not as the next support is the Lows in June.
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It is important to observe the steep decline in Open Interest.
The largest SPY Roll was into the OCT Expiry @ 372 Puts.
SPX shows a parallel Roll.
Please watch the Globex Lows - the NQ and ES can trade lower, it will be important for the NYSE Open.
I focused initially on CASH for TECH - QQQ's 285 had the largest Roll period. In addition, all Strikes with a few
exceptions up to 310 had retail rolling from 287.
At the moment the O/I is churned for tomorrow, with both ROLL and SWAP to Retail, BUT Retail was a net
BUYER of Calls.
383 is the Primary Support now that we crushed the trend lines, the Fibs line up there for the SPY.
The ONLY issue I see is the Algos took the ES Futures up and over its Pivot trendline at the Close by a
very small amount.
Whether or not we open Up and then backtest or fall away will depend on several indications from the
VIX VVIX $ 2YY... Volumes will be enormous.
I'm looking over correlations and ratios and then swinging back around to Futures Options.
This is what sticks out at present, the concern, of course, is Retail Longs who thought yesterday was a
great day to enter Calls.
What stands out is the size of Roll skipping the weekly expirations for both the SPY, SPX & QQQs.
Intra-Week Roll is almost non-existent.
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**** This week matches a record from 1930 -the lowest raw number of Stocks Up as a percentage.
I warned of the 4X Expiry being a large Risk, for revview -
SPY BEAR MEGAPHONE heading into 13.19.22 (thesis 2)Bearish Thesis catalyst CPI / Inflation data, rocket in yields and VIX.
SPY/SPX - $8 Billion Press to Downside Protection - 4X Expiry
Institutional Protection (Hedging) reached an All-Time High on the September 16th
Quad Witch Expiration.
This position dwarfs prior hedging Highs by 103% and is rising by an additional $8 Billion
added to the hoard of Puts Friday.
Not only are the positions outsized - it was 308% of 2008's Hedging.
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Intense Volatility will return in September.
Of Note, with the declining Volatility Complex, VX Hedging has not dropped within a
concurrent Cost Correlation.
Options Writers are set for 3.19% IV for September... which may portend significantly Higher VX
on any significant change in arrangements.
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On to the SPX/SPY and what is ahead. Of Note, I am Using the SPX as Large traders and
Institutions are most heavily positioned here. Levels for the SPY are contained below.
Trader Sentiment began the Week at 18.1% Bullish & 53.3% Bearish for the next 180 Days.
ISM Price Paid Component declined 34.6% on the latest print as Commodity Intermediate
Inputs have declined significantly.
Interest Rate Forwards are indicating the FOMC will be @ 4% by January. The short end of
the Curve continues to confirm the Fed Fund Futures. The DX took a breather on the Effective
Rate Tussle between the EU and US.
Powell will not do anything less than 75Bps and should the CPI be above 8.1 - 8.2, odds favor
Powell stepping up the odds of 100 BPS, anything below 8 and 75Bps will be the LIS. The
Fed is "data dependent" - ie. they bought themselves time and have already indicated it
will be, at minimum, several months of observing the Data and not one nor two.
Market Internals were solid with 90% Up, 10 :1 Advance peaking at 17 : 1 Intraday. Breadth
improved as well, not significantly, but an improvement pushing the Closing Basis above the
10-Week Moving Average. Friday's rally was broad as was Wednesday's.
NQ's Up/Down was higher as well, with a slight broadening after coming very close to putting
in a lower low.
The Put/Call ratio fell from 1.01 on Tuesday to .80 on close Friday - a 3-day decline.
The ViX has 19.46 wide open again as we move into Roll through Settle, expect a surprise
soon. It is ahead. The VVIX came up to its Pivot and failed badly.
Extreme awareness of the UST Curve and Futures is vital to success as we are seeing 4%
come into our view. DX, same considerations, the Ball is in Powell's court now that LeGarde
has made her tit for tat. FX Disruptions were not considered not all that long ago. I pointed
out they would be arriving shortly back in August of 2021. Very large disruptions were
promised and delivered. 100% Ditto Bonds and their impending implosions.
Dung was Flung then, not so much now and it is quite far from over for Bonds.
As for the Levels in Trade this week, they can be observed on the Weekly Chart in a larger
context.
For Sunday Globex / Monday, here are the levels:
NQ - Range Expands from 12,438 to 12,866 with 12508 as the Pivot.
SPY - Range Expands from 405.44 to 415.22 with 406.17 as the Pivot. The 407.37 Gap is filled.
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*Options have continued to play an important role in Price over the past decade. Presently,
they drive prices significantly.
I will produce a thorough explanation, in detail, in the next few days. It will include:
1. The 5 Greeks and how they function - Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega & Rho.
2. Alpha and Beta relations from the Underlying to the Derivative.
3. The Yield Correlations.
Have a great weekend, Good Luck on the Open - Trade Safe.
BOTTOM IS IN LONG TERMLooks like corporate yields say the bottom is in for the weekly chart. Corp yields are rolling over. Link to high yields is attached.
Corp. profits are up which is good
Housing market needs to be watched, could be what tips us.
Real money supply is shrinking which is good since we printed so much money 2020
US10Y. P-Modeling Pt 1. Yields of Cajun Welcome Hyperspace Travelers.
Proposition development is rendered.
SPX is going to fresh multigenerational lows.
The cybernetic era of advancement is upon us.
The 4th industrial revolution is imminent.
Things will get better.
But first they must get very bad.
Massive co-variate weight distribution imminent.
Wealth distribution will be forced from top 1% into lower 90%.
Technical Complexity is defined by linear and cyclic domains.
Each domain combined created this gorgeous technical formation.
Complex Technical Formation on 1 Week Macro Analysis of US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield.
Harmonic Handle string sequencing.
Defined Cajun Cup.
Defined C-A harmonic equalization.
Defined Linear Root.
Defined Cyclic Root.
____________________________
Start: 1980.
End: 2025.
Tap: Mean Reversion at minimum.
Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with Me,
Glitch420
Bond Market Reacts to Nonfarm and FedBonds fell again, hitting our next target at 115'29. Yields are creeping up as the markets are pricing in the next rate hike, expected to be 50-75 bps . Nonfarm payrolls gave us some insight into economic conditions: unemployment rose to 3.7%, with a headline miss and downward revision. This suggests that the economy is weakening further, and we are in a period of stagflation. Yields subsequently weakened and we are seeing a slight pivot off 1529. If we rally, we could hit 116'20 or even 117'08. If the figures are hotter than expected it should bolster the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and we could break through 115'29, to 115'03.
SPY - Volumes fell off on Decline
Many Sellers (Bears) missed the Selloff, and many Buyers (Bulls) failed to take profits at the 199 EMA tap.
Frustration abounds and will remain leading to many emotional trades being placed for both sides.
Indices traded into the Lows of their ranges and held for 3 days.
Buyers need a TOSS to get things going to the upside for 420+.
Buyers need to not hear Powell so much as mention QT. This needs to be avoided with Rates the primary
focus. Should he deviate into Quantitative Tightening - all bets are off.
We see the rounded lows in the 1 Hour Chart and the Couuntertrend channel - now we simply see if the
throw over short squeeze (TOSS) holds on GDP.
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After yesterday's -1175 NYSE Tick @ 12:15 PM EST - doubts began to arise once again.
The SPX dragged everything lower in several minutes. Volatility intra-day spiked and created further
uncertainty.
4164 was the Key Pivot for the ES - the front run 4162. During Globex, it crushed this level by 21 Handles.
NQ Pivoted over the Ghost Level @ 13013 during Globex.
Tesla crossed the $300 Level with New POs for 2022 $333 to $425 issued by Investment Banks.
NVDA had issued enough forward warnings to be mildly impacted after issuing its EPS / Guidance.
Debt Forgiveness in an Election Cycle is purely Political theatre.
Powell is due to provide clarity on his position through September tomorrow beginning at 10 AM EST
during a day of very heavy Macro Data.
Fundamentally - it will be an extraordinary day for trading, so best of trading in advance.
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Of Concern:
2YY - 2 YEar Yield Futures are approaching 3.5% - for now and again this is the power of Now - The
Effective Federal Funds Rate is 2.53%.
The 2 Year is getting close to pricing in a 100 Basis point Hike.
DX/DXY remain in a structurally sound uptrend, pullbacks are quite normal. Until the EU issues its
next rate decision on September 15th - the DX is free to roam about. It is important to acknowledge the
prior Highs were bested... this is important as it implies the 112s will be arriving in the near future.
Although the 10 Year is being permitted to lift in assisting the Yield Curve's reduced inversion, it's frankly
not a material concern as Yields continue to rise across the Curve.
FX Traders took the 6E (Euro) downtown below Par due to Economic conditions and not Rate Parities.
The NatGas to Crude correlations are disturbing - $410 - yesterday the Media upped it from $520 to $1000.
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Patience into Powell will be the best Trade imho.
Good Luck, the Bigger setup is 25 hours away ;)
Forget All Other ChartsIgnore all the other charts right now. They are based on DOLLARS. The dollar is permanently unstable and your imperialist overlords are here to take away your spending power. We're due to see bearish action similar to April 5th (pink dot). The question is, will we see a lower high in relative yields, or will we set a higher low and possibly become uninverted, and return above 1.0 once again? Consider that we just set a higher high in the S&P medium term and it could have simply been a move to fool the crowd. On the other hand, debt is at all time highs, and rates even at this level mean systemic insolvency. Raising rates further means quicker insolvency. I say just get it over with or don't do it at all. Inflation year over year is, realistically, 20-40%, each year since 2020. Key interest rates aren't even 10% of that. There is no way they will be able to control this in any way, shape or form, or manufacture a so called "soft landing".
Rates rise >1.0 = total collapse, then easing
Rates bounce <1.0 = unrealistic rally blow off top, more tightening to trigger the crash
I think I used too many arrows but hopefully it makes sense.
Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets.
Not a silver lining.Silver is special as it is both an industrial and precious metal. So, let’s look at Silver from both points of view to identify what seems to be dimming the shine on this metal.
As a precious metal, we can compare silver with the dollar and yield as both affect the demand for precious metals. Dollar and silver are generally negatively correlated, with a stronger dollar leading to weaker silver. In the chart below, we see this relationship at play until the start of February 2022, when it started to weaken. It seems the effect of a rapidly strengthening dollar has not been reflected in the prices of silver and we expect this gap to close, resulting in lower silver prices.
The 10-year yield also provides us with a reference to understand where silver might trade at. A high yield environment is often considered headwind for precious metals as investors prefer holding yield-generating assets in such periods. In the chart below, we see can observe the roughly negative relationship between yields and silver, with periods of lower rates showing higher silver prices and vice versa.
With the Federal Reserve indicating that they are still not done with the rate hikes to combat inflation, silver might take a dent in upcoming rate hikes.
Secondly, we can look at business and consumer confidence to gauge the potential demand for silver as an industrial metal. Generally, higher business and consumer confidence indicate expansionary periods, which translate to higher demand for industrial metals. With the University of Michigan consumer confidence index at a low and United States Business Confidence Index turning lower, such negative outlook will slow demand for silver as a form of industrial metal, potentially adding resistance to prices.
On the technical front, silver is sitting right on the 19-dollar level, which has acted as a key support & resistance level over the past 10 years. An attempt to breach this level a few weeks ago was rejected and prices are now back to retest this support. On a shorter timeframe, we also see silver in a descending channel pattern indicating a downwards continuation pattern.
With the dollar strengthening, higher yields, and downbeat business and consumer confidence, the macro backdrop for silver does not look rosy. Overlaying that with the bearish technical price action, we think Silver is likely to struggle.
Entry at 18.960, stops at 20.160. Targets at 16.620.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
DXY's delayed reaction to yieldsI had this confusing idea and I will show it to you with this confusing chart.
1. First we define the blue vertical lines. These are the drawn on the date of the peak of yield.
( Even though yields drop, dollar continues to grow. Like a delayed reaction. Unsurprisingly, yields lead DXY growth. )
2. Then we draw fib retracements, with 1 being the DXY value at the time of yields peaking. And 0 being the bottom of the DXY jump. The peak of DXY is conveniently at 1.618. (or maybe I conveniently drew the chart such that 1.618 appears every time, to further validate myself)
3. When yields return to "normal levels" (red vertical lines), DXY dives.
The location of the red vertical lines, as well as what is defined as "normal yield level" are defined by the arbitrary target of 1.618 I put.
IF yields have already peaked, and if my theory is correct, DXY will reach 120, and when yields return to where they were. Even if the price target is inaccurate, the fact that DXY continues to grow after yields peak, cannot be ignored.
$NQ1! - What's next?NQ1! - What's next?
It's time to for PB as I stated at start of the week, imo it seemed over extended and I looking a LT positioning with NQ & ES at this moment of time 13250 for NQ is the next support areas. However, if we break above 13 and half areas, I will be re-thinking the idea of execution. We have DXY heading higher, and perhaps re-test highs on DXY. Overall, the key important information will be Jackson Hole.
TJ
Bond Yieds RiseBonds have fallen further, breaking down past 119'01 into the vacuum zone below. We are still hovering above 118'04, the next level of support, but the Kovach OBV is looking pretty bearish. We are starting to see some green triangles on the KRI around 118'20, but we should have strong support at 118'04 if current levels do not hold. If we can pivot, then 119'01 should provide resistance.
US 10-year back inside bear channelAfter today's disappointing Chinese and US macro data and the slump in crude oil, bond yields have slumped as investors have further priced in "peak inflation" amid recession risks.
The US 10-year yield broke out of its bear channel a couple of sessions ago, which was bad news for low-yielding assets. But it has now gone back inside that channel, meaning the downtrend that started since mid-June continues.
Assuming yields remain inside the channel, this is potentially good news for gold and silver, and yen.
Both precious metals fell on Monday, so we may see some dip-buying in light of the drop in yields.
By Fawad Razaqzada on behalf of FOREX.com
Bonds Break SupportBonds have edged lower, breaking through support at 119'23. We have fallen to suport at 119'01, currently hugging this level, but finding good support confirmed by two green triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has slipped a little, confirming the selloff, but has since appeared to level off. If we are able to pivot here, then 119'23 and 120'14 are the next targets to the upside. Watch for the vacuum zone below to 118'04.
Expectations for September's FOMCWhat do the markets care about this week? We have another CPI print on Wednesday, which is highly anticipated. We are in a period of nasty stagflation and the Fed is caught in a difficult position. They want to raise rates further, but the issue is that our cause of inflation seems to be on the supply chain side. Interest rates will do little to combat this. The NFP numbers Friday were pretty strong, so their case is strengthened to raise by at least 50bps in September, at the next FOMC. It will be almost a certainty if CPI comes in hot.
Note that GDP came in contractionary for two quarters in a row, which is the definition most use for a recession. This stands somewhat at odds with the strong NFP numbers, which could be a seasonal fluke. If the data continues to indicate that we are in a recession, the Fed will eventually be forced to lower rates again. The markets seem to be weighing this reality before rallying with conviction.
S&P vs UST YieldsYields are going crazy right now. Everything seems like a disaster. Oddly enough, when these particular yields invert (gray boxes), the 10/2, it is historically not the best time to go short, but rather you would have benefited if you had shorted AFTER yields uninverted above 1.0(red dots). Now, okay, maybe this time is different, a ratio of 0.87 isn't exactly sane at this point and maybe the whole thing comes crashing down. It's also true that about a third of this chart represented a fundamentally bullish and arguably much more healthy market, and this is true, we could have samples that don't exactly reflect current conditions. What I'm not so certain about is the idea that the market being bearish or bullish is somehow a barometer of what's going to happen next. At the end of the day, monetary policy rules market prices and perhaps this can be taken as sign that perhaps we don't *really* know what's going on behind the scenes, which strings are being pulled, and how hard. The market is not the economy. The FED has a trading desk at the NY Stock Exchange. Let us ask this question: if it is not absolutely necessary in their eyes to have such a trading desk, why would it exist? Could it be the case that it's simply there and yet they aren't using it? I think that is the less probable scenario.
Take it as you will. Considering the sharp cataclysm of yield inversion, I'm not sure this could constitute trading advice, but I thought it was interesting, as it could be considered bullish evidence for a "last rally" into a mammoth sized selloff.
What do you think? Still bearish? Bullish all the way? Even more confused now!? Have I gone completely crazy?? Let me know!
Thanks for taking a look, take care, and don't forget to hedge your bets.
Sideways Correction in BondsBonds are oscillating in the narrow range between 117'19 and 119'01. The Kovach OBV has leveled off, suggesting there is little momentum at the moment to move then needle either way. We appear to be in a sideways corrective phase, after topping out at 120'14, then retracing to 117'19. If we catch more momentum, we could test highs again at 120'14. If 117'19 does not hold, watch for support at 117'08 and 116'20.
Housing market crashes when yield curve invertsEvery time the yield curve inverts (US10Y-US02Y), we see a recession as well as a decline in housing prices. The past few months has been the worse time to buy a house. In about a year from now, it might be a great time to buy a house. The market will fall due to lack of demand. High inflation + recession means less purchasing power and fewer home buyers.
U.S. Bonds & Stocks is ready for a rebound, why?One of the ways to determine U.S. stocks and indices’ direction in the long-term is to also know where the U.S. bonds markets are heading. Why?
This is because the US bonds, its market capitalization can be as large as all the U.S. stocks market combined; therefore, it is also as important to also track its direction.
In the macro trend over generations, the bonds move in tandem with the stocks market, meaning if bonds are heading up, the stocks market will likely follow.
• Where is the main trend of the 30 Years T-Bond?
• Why is the stocks market due for a rebound in the coming week?
For this demonstration, I am using the CBOT U.S. 30 years T Bond Futures. If you are interested to research and explore into other treasuries tenures and the yield curve, under symbol search, Futures tab – search for Bonds, Notes or Yields.
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
Yields are pulling back but the move is likely corrective.US 10Y yields are pulling back after testing twice the 3.5% area but the move to the D/S is unfolding in a corrective manner for now (descending channel). 3% is the closest support area (also a psychological level) but a move towards 2.8% before resuming the upside is likely. We know it seems far but 4% is a level we expect the market to eventually hit while remaining in this bull run.
