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Yields

Bonds Ranging Between Our LevelsBonds have edged up, but as predicted, are facing resistance at 128'24. We saw a red triangle on the KRI at this level to confirm resistance. Currently, we are seeking support at 128'10, which we also anticipated. Two green triangles on the KRI are suggesting support here. As discussed yesterday, bonds are establishing value between 128'10 and 128'24. The Kovach OBV has edged up, but has leveled off. If ZN is able to break through 128'24, then there is a vacuum zone to 129'11. Otherwise, we should see support at 128'00.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Big weekly bearish div => Big drop (historically)Hi folks! Enough said already - just stay out: - S&P500 has just once been more expensive in terms of most metrics (Schiller PE, P/S, Relative to Money supply etc.) - Real interests (inflation - treasury yields) have NEVER been as negative as they are now - contributing to huge inequality in society => Fed will have to act, and most likely a lot faster than the market suspects - Remember that real interest rates are actually lower now than before Volcker bumped interests to 10%! The only potential upside to this market lies in even more speculation, and that is not a place you want to be imo. As I am a trader and do not have the patience to stay away, I just trade the VIX these days, but I do not recommend this (unless you know how it is calculated and you have a reasonable risk management strategy). DYOR. NFA. I Wish you all well :)
AMEX:SPYShort
by TheDots
8
TNX - Deep CrabThese harmonic patterns have been a real hit or miss for me. However I couldn't help, but notice that the fibs alligned so nicely. The "potential reversal zone" is the 1.618 XA project @ 2.519. The BC projections of 2.24 and 2.618 (both in grey) were used to define the range of that zone. The AB=CD projection was also include of the 1.272 and 1.618. 1.272 is an alternate target 1.618 because I like the symmetry with the 2.618 BC projection at 2.254. Despite labeled with a "potential reversal zone", keep in mind the momentum on this sucker. The 30,40, and 50 week MA look like they are ready to flip bullish in the coming weeks if this thing gains some ground. Not financial advice by any means. I just thought it'd be fun to share. Best of luck! harmonictrader.com
TVC:TNX
by BigDGoesHard
US-DOLLAR really falling after NFPs? I doubt it.Hey tradomaniacs, chaotic market huh? To be honest... I think the current move of US-DOLLAR doesn`t make any sense. I keep it simple and short, otherwise I`d have to break the mold. The data are mixed but do overall show a slowdown in the economy but at the same time rising inflation. Non-Farm-Payrolls: 199.000 less jobs than expected and the worst result since december 2020. This clearly shows a cool down in the NFP-Sector and is overall bearish for the US-Dollar. Unemployment Rate: 3,9% and a positive development considering that previous rate has been at 4,2%. Overall bullish fort he US-Dollar. Average hourly earnings: 0,6% and way higher compared to the previous month. This is overall bullish for the US-DOLLAR due to higher inflation. Average weekly hours: 34,7 and less than expected. The problem here in my opinion is the fact that earnings per hour soared while less jobs were created. This is a typical sign of inflation and part oft he wage-price-spiral. Considering that FED has to and will fight inflation as its priority number one after their „transitory-fail“ to gain back reputation Jerome Powell & Co could turn from best friends to fiends for the stockmarket as financial injections probably won`t be an option anymore, whether the economy cools down or not. This is clearly negative for the overvalued equity-market but not by all means for the US-Dollar. Simply put: The FEDs in a quandra. Can`t provide more liquidity due to high inflation to push growth and employment and has to hope everything is going to be fine. Rising yields do indicate expectations for higher inflation in the market and would offer an alterantive to stocks in the near future (Bonds). They are also generally good for the bank-sector and obviously not good for tecs due to high costs which are not as easier to finance with higher interest-rates. But here is a catch.. we know how irrational but faithful the market is... if it turns out the market hopes the FED to ignore their plans and "slow it down" in order to boost the economy again if future results are not as good as expected we might see another rally in stocks and so a falling US-Dollar. This would be more like the less likely scenario in my opinion...I mean Bidens is on Powells tail. Risk-Off is generally good for the US-DOLLAR as a safe haven. If FED continues as announced and planned the US-Dollar is likely to move up while this move turns out to be a fake. One of these charts is lying, but I see a higher probabillity of a rising US-Dollar under these circumstances. LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me
TVC:US10YLong
by Trading2ez
3
Yields Soar, Treasuries Smash Lows!!Bonds have tumbled off soaring yields. Rising inflation seems to be one of the key drivers, along with paradoxically increasing risk on sentiment in stocks, as the indexes are testing new highs again. ZN smashed through support in 130 handle. We saw absolutely no support from 130'00, the final barrier to the 129 handle, and even less from 129'26, the first level in the 129's. We finally bottomed out (for now) at 129'11, one of the levels we have identified months back using inverse Fibonacci Extension levels. The Kovach OBV has fallen off a cliff with the selloff, but appears to be leveling off as the price stabilizes here. Anticipate some ranging at current levels are digested. The next level down is 128'24. If we catch a relief rally, then 129'26 should provide resistance.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Are Treasury Yields Bottoming?It appears that 10's are coiling up with two potential trendlines to watch (converging orange lines on the chart). Since failing just under 1.70 three weeks ago the latest trend has been down despite a more hawkish Fed and rising 2-year yields. This has led to dramatic flattening across the curve before the latest FOMC meeting. Ahead of Wednesday's announcement, US breakeven rates had fallen to 2 month lows, suggesting since the final stimulus plan was signed in late November that expectations for future inflation could finally be in the process of being addressed. Even after the Fed's meeting, breakevens still seemingly believe that Powell & company are about to embark on a tightening cycle next year with 3 hikes being currently priced by the market for 2022. Although, breakevens still look to go lower, the latest price-action suggests they could be on the verge of starting to stabilize. And ​10's too may be attempting to bottom-out as well. For that to happen, however, 10's have to hold the 1.39/1.40 area before turning attention towards the downward sloping trendline ahead of the 20-day moving average. Moreover, with the latest stabilization in the persistent curve flattening trend could also be suggesting more stable rates at the long end of the curve. The one factor to watch that could delay a possible move-up in US yields is covid pandemic, which has unleashed severe year-end profit-taking in the highest performing stocks and overall burdened equity markets around the world.
FRED:T10YIELong
by fxtrends
Fade the rally in yields: What is the bond market telling us?We stand at a crossroad. First, market conditions mirror the global economy in 2018. Back then, the FED was getting to raising rates when the Eurodollar curve inverted. Flattening US bond rates too indicated that economic growth in 2019-2020 would would slow. Now, the FED is expected to be aggressive on asset purchases taper in next week's meeting. Three rate hikes have been priced in the markets with the first rate hike in May 2022. A ghost from the past - inverted Eurodollars & flattening US bond yields - is back to haunt the markets. This implies growth is expected to slow down at least during the next two years. It is important to notice the bounce in US yields should be used to fade out of equity positions in the recent rally and into bond positions across the curve. Buy long-term, sell short-term durations. Bond volatility has soared I think the past two weeks indicating that something heavy is brewing under the surface.
TVC:US10YShort
by GrizzlyBearBee
3
US10Year YieldIn my most novice opinion, the correlation of the the yield to SPY correlation has been off a bit due to a mix of tax sell offs and maybe some Omicron fear. However, although we are in a area in opinion, we should still be careful and watch how the correlation moves as we close out the end of 2021 and as we head into next year. GDP growth is slow but has been steadily recovering. Now it's a battle between new fear and prior recovery boost. It's been a movie. Let's see what happens!
TVC:US10YLong
by Redimere_91
Bond to Bitcoin CorrelationHere is a brief correlation between bitcoin and bond price action. Hope you find this useful! I haven't been posting much due to what's going on in the economy. Switching up my approach. We all know when bonds rise, yields fall. When bonds fall, yields rise. Think about this when reading this chart. Good luck to the HODL! Feel free to follow or simply keep up. I'm working on getting better always so bare with me. We all know what kind of journey this is! Would love your support!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Redimere_91
Global bonds rout put central banks on the spot What a crazy market,” said Priya Misra, global head of rates strategy at TD Securities. “The 20s-30s curve is just reflecting the overall flattening theme in the market -- where central banks are forced to respond to inflation, which slows growth significantly.” Yield-curve flattening has gained momentum across global bond markets this week as traders scrambled to price in more aggressive central-bank actions to fend off inflation. The Bank of Canada surprised investors Wednesday by abruptly ending its bond-buying stimulus program and accelerated the potential timing of future interest rate increases; the Canadian yield curve flattened sharply in response. While declining oil prices account for some of the pullback in breakevens, “profit-taking after a very strong run over the past several weeks” was also a likely factor, said Michael Pond, head of inflation market strategy at Barclays Capital Inc. “We might be seeing de-risking ahead of the Fed,” which has been mindful of inflation expectations and doesn’t want to appear to be behind the curve, Pond said.
TVC:US10YLong
by GrizzlyBearBee
Bond market volatility rocks the EuroData released Thursday showed that U.S. GDP growth slowed sharply to a 2% annualized rate in the third quarter. Meanwhile, investors continued to price in rate increases by the European Central Bank, while dismissing President Christine Lagarde’s effort to push back against such expectations. Market expectations of higher interest rates has brought out bears, with Danske Bank strategists expecting the euro to fall to $1.10 over the next 12 months.
Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
10 Year Treasury Yields on track to reaching a minimum of 1.77Back in August I posted a Descending Broadening Wedge setup where we were at a potential bottom and today it would seem that we have successfully broken out of said wedge and back tested as support and are looking to finish the measure move that will take us to a minimum target of 1.77. If you look on a timeframe like the weekly we have potential to go all the way up to 2.5 if we break above 1.77 but i wont go into charting that yet until we begin to. To see the original idea check the related ideas tab below.
TVC:US10YLong
by RizeSenpai
TLT - 145.25 and it's a confirmed Sell on >TFs.Book Clearing 9/27/2021 TLT Position Closures Today @ > 131.40 ZN Closing 100 x 152 Puts Closing 100 x 151 Puts Closing 100 x 150 Puts Open 100 x 151~ Open 100 x 149 Open 60 x 148 Open 60 x 147 Open 60 x 140 We will closely watch 145.24 Level for the Support Level, should it trade below the trade is cast to 139s with a minor retracement to SELL the ETF. Put ladders will be close in total and gains captured. The 007's are yet to see the light and will Buy the Dip, we will oppose their ST Bid in TLT. Longer-term, TLT Structure looks Negative. FED - What not to say this morning beginning @ 10 AM EST> 8:00 AM EST positioning will provide the Micro Trend into Fed Reserve Bullhorns. The attempt to calm the losing battle with YCC could see on more attempts at gaining the upper hand.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
12
USDJPY Breaking Out Of A Triangle USDJPY finally breaks out of a triangle as both SP and US yields rally. Keep in mind that higher Yields are positive for the currency, while risk-on means depreciation of JPY, especially now when BOJ is not ready to take any action on interest rates. Based on their recent statement, they will most likely maintain stimulus in the next few years. Technically I expect USDJPY to see more upside after a completed triangle, so looking for a retest of the 2021, maybe even 2020 highs. JPY crosses are also looking interesting, GBPJPY in particular.
by ew-forecast