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BOND YIELDS scary now? Rising way bk frm Aug 2020 (& GOLD down)What this chart shows... The treasury bond yield and the price of gold have a strong relationship in the long and medium terms (in inverse directions, hence the use of GLL UltraShort Gold ETF as a comparative measure - PURPLE line). Yields had been falling strongly, and gold price rising swiftly throughout 2019 and into 2020. After the initial Wuhan Virus shock, yields fell even lower and the price of gold rocketed to historical highs - their movements turned around together in early August 2020 (US10Y yield starting to pick up from Mon Aug 3, and gold starting falls from Fri Aug 7), and have been relentlessly moving like that from that date. The US Dollar, which had been generally strengthening for over two years pre-Wuhan, flipped post-Wuhan; and has been weakening over most of the post-Wuhan period to date (despite weaker gold prices and strengthening US yields from early Aug as we have mentioned). Right on cue, within the first week of 2021 (particularly Jan 7), the USD belatedly began to move in the direction of continued higher yields (with an ever weaker gold price) - this was especially notable in the USDJPY yen and the USDEUR euro . Despite a steep surge in bond yields and the USD for four trading sessions from Jan 7 (and accompanying erosion of the gold price), equity markets were not overly disturbed. But it is a further sustained spurt in bond yields from Feb 16, that has market commentators pointing the finger for the shock to the NASDAQ (IXIC - BLACK line). (Out of step, the USD actually weakened when considered against the USDEUR and the USDAUD from Feb 5 to Feb 25; but they seem to be following the storyline after that.)
TVC:US10Y
by dartde
Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 1559 is officially approved!Ethereum ETH is trading at support. Lose the 1500 and we have buying opportunities lower. Break 1600s and we're back off to the races to retests $2K. Short term the popularity of ETH has created the high transaction, aka gas, fees, on Ethereum. High fees have driven down sentiment with reason. Will hot new kids DOT, ADA and LINK overtake ETH??? Probably not but DeFi is growing in a side experiment closed ecosystem called Binance BNB. It's a great short term trade if you want the crypto trading pairs. Longer term, open, decentralized , ETH2 is happening this year. Why would one bet on Binance long term when you can bet on Ethereum not controlled by a single organisation? Is Binance controlled by Malta? Is Malta part of the EU? Who controls Binance? EIP 1559, the interim solution is happening in the London release (fork). Meanwhile, miner replacement for lower fees, validators need to lock up 32 ETH to become validators on ETH The future is friendly. Anything under $2K USD for ETH will seem cheap very soon. Bitcoin might become the store of wealth, ETH might become the workhouse with a now programmed way to ensure the supply dwindles with transactions creating a constant upwards pressure for ETH starting in July 2021, four months from now. As Bitcoin continues to stay inefficient without L2 lightning, ETH has a real world dominant use case with a solid, well supported, road map. Watch the ETHBTC pair for confirmation on this thesis.. PS There is room for both and some others....
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn2413721
Stocks Still Rearing from YieldsThe sudden and continued rise in bond yields have created a problem for Stocks. The S&P has retraced from the upper bound of our pseudo-megaphone pattern. Although we do have support at 3791, we appear to be forming a bear flag, and may break lower. There is a vacuum zone down to 3758, which it appears that the S&P seems to be gearing up to cross. The level 3758 is not only a technical level but it also intersects with the lower bound of our pseudo-megaphone pattern so we should see some some support there. We have a cluster of levels below that at 3749 and 3737, which should provide further support. If there is bull momentum, we should see resistance at 3847, which is about mid way between the upper and lower bounds of our chart pattern.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
US10Y Similarities of 2020/21 with 2008/9This study brings forward the similarities of today's price action on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield with 2008-2009 on the 1W time-frame. * In 2008, the bottom was made shortly after the Quantitative Easing 1 (QE1) was initiated in order to offset the sub-prime mortgage Crisis. In 2020 the bottom was made shortly after the 1st Stimulus packaged was initiated in order to offset the COVID-19 Crisis. * In 2009, the strong rebound that followed broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) but the MA200 (orange) held, emerging as a Resistance and eventually rejecting the price. So far today, the US10Y is way above the MA50 approaching the MA200. * That rebound formed the fastest/ strongest 1W MACD rise in more than one decade on both periods. * There is a Symmetrical Support Zone involved in both cases. * A Golden Cross and a Death Cross preceded both periods. Will history be repeated? ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> alanmasters --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
10
Look out below Short the Market, Long SPXSAs the 10YR Treasury yield surpasses the average dividend yield of the S&P at 1.5%, risk assets will lose their shiny appeal and become a much scarier thing to hold. As rates rise, growth companies usually don't do as well since they can't borrow money as cheaply to fuel their rapid expansions. If you look at the all-time 10yr Treasury Bill it looks like we are on trend to retest an old resistance line, which is at about the 2.39% range. If it were to hit that, there would be a huge flight from equities into fixed income because then decent returns could be achieved while remaining safe. To play this, go long SPXS. It is levered 3x to the downside for the S&P 500; so every percent the SPX drops, SPXS rises 3%. Maybe 1 to 3% of your portfolio since it is levered 3 times. 10YR retesting resistance trend line 10YR could hit 2.39%; towering over the SPX's average yield of 1.5% This is not investment advice, do your own due diligence and gauge your own risk tolerance.
AMEX:SPXSShort
by EBITDAtiger
5
US10Y Testing a symmetrical level. Potential Resistance.One of the hot topics in the market recently has been the rising bond yields. The US Government Bond 10 year yield traded this week inside a Zone that has formerly been (from 2011 to 2019) a long-term Support level as clearly illustrated on the chart. With the RSI on the 1W time-frame also entering its Resistance Zone (holding since 1996) and the MACD approaching its own, can this mean that the US10Y has topped? It is not impossible that what used to be a Support Zone, will now turn into a Resistance. What do you think? ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> alanmasters --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
4
BONDS or EQUITIES? JPOWs major dilemma|YIELDS|INFLATION|MACRO|This will be a relatively detailed idea, but bear with me. There will be plenty of charts that speak for themselves, so I'll try to keep it as short as possible. Since everything is connected, the analysis will contain three parts, including yields, inflation, macro indicators. I will post an additional analysis of equity factor performance during rising yield spreads, sometime in the near future. Firstly, SPY/IEF is an interesting ratio if we disregard the negative dividend carry. Given the recent volatility in the bond markets, I chose to use IEF instead of TLT, however the difference is not that major when it comes to moves of the 10 and 30 T bonds. EIF principally holds 10 year US treasuries, with an effective duration around 8. I ) YIELDS In essence what the charts shows is that whenever the ratio has been near the top of the channel, an equities correction has followed. There are many reasons why bond yields affect equities. The main reason of course being, the fact that yields are used as a discounting factor, higher yields imply lower present value. This is particularly detrimental for growth stocks, whose cash flows Secondarily, higher yields also imply higher interest expenses, which in an extremely debt ridden economy, companies in the junk spectrum are particularly sensitive to. More on this later. An even more interesting ratio is the IWM/IEF ratio. The reason here being that companies with small market caps tend to have larger betas, and the higher the beta the larger the systematic risk exposure. Based on the argument above, higher yields certainly implies higher systematic risk. Therefore, at the point at which yields become troublesome, this should be first be observed in IWM/IEF ratio. The current consensus is that bond yields will start to hurt equities around the 1.4%-1.5% range. However, these levels can still be considered at the lower range, considering that in the previous three cycles the 10Y-2Y spread returned to 2.5-3%, marking a full inflation expectations recovery (fred.stlouisfed.org). Below are charts 10Y treasury charts for the past 10 years and the past year. What seems to be the problem is the sudden acceleration in rising yields, marked by the breakout from the Biden factor initiated momentum channel. In theory, a higher bond market volatility, is quite an issue for volatility targeting strategies, as they are forced to decrease overall exposure, further exaggerating the ongoing crisis. II) JPows dilemma, bonds or equities? For the past 10 years, the average inflation for most economies globally has been well below their CBs targets. I guess this inspired the FED this time to even encourage inflation expectation beyond the 2-3 % range. The actual problem here of course is that bond holders would require compensation for the inflation premium. Why hold assets that essentially decrease your purchasing power?https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=BphU The past week, with a conjecture of many factors 10Y yields have been completely out of control. There are two main ways to deal with rising yields in a debt ridden economy, implement yield curve control (YCC), Japanese or Macro Prudential way. It's extremely difficult to know exactly how equities will react in the short and long run, and whether the Japanese example is of any relevance. But what's certain is that, a Japanese YCC would cap rates at a given rate (let's say 1%), by setting a price at which the FED buys treasuries excess supply of treasuries. This case is the most bullish for equities, as the monetary base further expands. The question is whether this is constitutional. The Macro Prudential way, would be to force savings institutions (pension funds) to hold more treasuries, driving yields lower. In essence, this would imply a transfer of wealth between the borrower (young) and the saver (old) on a massive scale. This is the bearish case for equities, as the funds would have to decrease their equity holdings in order to buy more bonds. (Idea attributed to R. Napier) Of course, the FED could also decide to do nothing, in which based on similar occasions in the past, we should have a minor correction and/or choppy markets in the near term. I am not even going to guess which direction will the FED choose, we'd just have to wait and see. Any YCC measures would be particularly detrimental for banks. The financial sector has been picking up momentum against tech for the first time in more than three years. III) Is inflation really, really coming? Macro indicator analysis The economy seems to have rebounded extremely well. Here's why. Capital expenditure bounced of extremely well, compared to 2009 and 2001 (fred.stlouisfed.org). The same could be said for Durable goods (fred.stlouisfed.org) and new housing permits (fred.stlouisfed.org). Unemployment declining rapidly, but is still high (fred.stlouisfed.org), which in essence is quite bullish as it implies a accommodative policy until "full" employment is achieved. And of course, corporate earnings are set to rebound fred.stlouisfed.org Likewise, HY credit spreads are at the lowest levels they've been in the past 20 years (fred.stlouisfed.org and fred.stlouisfed.org). Savings rates are high, especially the latest reading for January, an increase of nearly 10% (fred.stlouisfed.org) implies for a further potential that the saved money will be put into the economy once it reopens. Money supply growth is at the highest levels recorded for the past fifty years (fred.stlouisfed.org). Additionally, wages pressures that are mainly legislative should also drive demand pull effect on inflation. Each of these measures to a large extent imply a risk of overheating once the economies fully reopen (perhaps this summer). On a global scale, Chinese GDP is "apparently" rebounding, and the Eurozone is noticing first signs of inflation picking up. However each of these measures is troublesome. There are many reasons but I will go through them briefly. Firstly, the housing market is since a long time has been dysfunctional. The rent moratorium implies, that there is additional debt accumulation, that'll drag down spending. Additionally, foreclosures seems to be postponed, driving the real estate supply squeeze. Savings rate are mostly accumulated by high earners with arguably much lower propensities to consume. Higher minimum wage pressure could easily be negated by business hiring less workers or lower hours worked. The most important factor of all is the fact that the dis-inflational tech/innovation factor still persist, and is perhaps even stronger than ever. At this point I'd argue that since the breakeven inflation rate is still below 2.5-2.7% which has been the top range for the past 20 years(fred.stlouisfed.org), inflation risks are perhaps too far exaggerated. Yes, governments are directly sponsoring extremely risky loans to business (CARES act), dramatically increasing money supply. However, at the end of it all governments can raise taxes directly or indirectly(locally), to cover for these fiscal expenses, which is especially viable right now as the Dems hold a trifecta in DC. This should also take care of Money supply growth. Come second half of 2021, we will see the kind of tax amendments the Biden admin will propose. Retroactive tax code changes would be particularly detrimental. This is it for this detailed macro top-down analysis. There are many other factors to analyze, but the analysis is already extremely elaborate. In the following weeks, the key events to follow are, the quarterly triple witching, how the FED decides to deal with yields if they continue to climb towards 2 %, and todays vote on monetary stimulus and minimum wages. Dip buying may seem very attractive at this point. However, I would caution buying any dips as long as the bearish trend in 10Y treasuries persists, and at least wait until the markets are past the triple witching . In my next idea, I will evaluate performance of equity factors for the last 20 years. -Step_ahead_ofthemarket ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well-informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated! Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
AMEX:SPY
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
5
Short NASDAQ and Gold!!As per the proven academic hypothesis by Ilmanen(2003), it has been established that in times of growth uncertainty, low inflation and stable discount rates, there is an inverse relationship between Bond Yields and Equity Markets. The simple logic behind it is that, investors are looking for risk free return and if the dividend yield of index which is on average 1.74% for Nasdaq with risk (In Feb 2021 it was 1.34%), is lower than risk free investments i.e. bond then why invest in Equities? This is the reason why the equities have started to fall now as bond yields are rising. Bond yields have been rising since August 2020 but their yields were not high enough as compared to Equities. Now when the yields are higher than the dividend yield on equities, people have started to invest in bonds. The same is the case with Gold. Holding gold does not give any return but bonds do and being risk free, offering a higher return than equities, ergo, people have again started to invest in bonds by shorting Gold.
TVC:NDQShort
by wajahatid
Are we building a ladder with the steps we just used?Today was quite an interesting, and most likely historical day following the shenanigans of $GME. For me, it was a day to sit back, contemplate, & construct questions into the future of the economy in Canada. Please bear with me as this is my first idea, and I am admittedly a new trader (One year so far). Comparing 3 types of bond yields: 10Y, 2Y, and 3MO has been quite the staple for determining the direction of our economy. Our interest rates, the general market outlook, and also what the government is doing financially. Like an electrical circuit, we can see that each time these 3 graphs begin to touch, the economy short circuits and is sent spiraling downwards. I'd like to start where a lot of people start, and a lot of people groan as well when they hear this: the stock market crash of 2008. First, it would be ignorant to completely declare this fiasco as identical. However, there are many parts that are (and continue) to be similar. Some people say the stock market is just an irrational machine. Any sort of programmer would laugh at the idea of true randomness. I believe it is a system of gears that are controlled by millions of different entities and that it's our job to be able to understand which gear(s) are controlling each sector to formulate a decent idea, or fair percentage to make our predictions. The first and most obvious similarity between these crashes is the level CORRA (Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average). The Bank of Canada has taken control of the CORRA and it " will be further adopted across a wide range of financial products and could potentially become the dominant Canadian interest rate benchmark, particularly in derivatives markets". There's an obvious pattern of the market reacting violently to the CORRA rate and as of right now, they are at the same level as the 2008 stock market crash. The very first sign of a stock market short circuit can be noticed with the 10 and 2 year bond yield rate. From almost December 2005 these rates were starting to close in together, leading to complete cross-under of the 3 month yield and shortly after - the great 2008 stock market crash. For our recent crash we had it play out almost exactly the same: tightening between 10Y & 2Y, and then a cross-under of the 3 month. Shortly after, the crash occurred. Now, what's different? Well only that the 3 month yield appropriately spaced itself from the 2Y from the 2008 market crash. I'm sure we all know but the main cause of the 2008 crash was from too many people defaulting on loans that they shouldn't have been given in the first place. However, when this crash occurred our different yields are took their respective position to comfortably restart. In our new crash the 3 month and 2 year yields are still confused while the 10 year is entering a parabolic increase. The last time something occurred similar to this (noted by the squares) we entered a bear market that took a hit to the real estate industry first. So, what's the problem? I believe we all got a little too worried about the result of this pandemic, but were saved by the technology industry. Most people in high-end jobs were able to continue working without much difference, and people in low-end jobs pretty much had to continue working - but were labelled as heroes. Additionally, there has been a lot of new faces (including mine) in the stock market world, stimulate bonuses were (and still are, I believe) given to everyone and their 14 year old kids (seriously). A lot of people have taken up online hobbies, stores, and especially jobs that they can do remotely. We are humans, we learn to adapt in every situation, and that's why we're the kings of this world. Despite the lovely recovery, there's echoes and signs that are increasing in strength. In boxing, a fighter can be the best and be unmatched - only to have it all taken away from one loss and never recover again I find the market to be a swinging pendulum. It goes up, it goes down. There's an invisible line of gravity that we accept and it swings depending on the uncertainty and volume. When we defeat our fears we need to stay humble before we start to believe we're invincible. The biggest industry of Canada (that controls 13% of the GDP) is.... real estate. I'm sure every Canadian here that's looking to buy a house in wincing in pain, and everyone that already has a house has the biggest grin. I was reading that Toronto went up around 15% in real estate in January. What the heck is going on?? . My friend recently purchased a nice condo in Quebec which costed $430,000. Does my friend make the kind of money to justify a house that expensive? Heck no. Can we just flip back to the 2008 market crash? We remember what caused it right? Ridiculous loans that were given out, and that were defaulted because they were ridiculous. Now, I'm not saying that this crash was similar, but I am trying to imply that we are on the verge of hitting that crash again. CERB has effectively given everyone who can fill out a form a bit over $10,000. Some people didn't even EARN $10,000 in a year but they still got it. It's still continuing under some new name so the amount is still increasing. Secondly, any new home buyers are eligible for a government loan that pretty much equates to 5 - 10% of the down deposit. So let's get this straight: Everyone and their child has received ATLEAST $10,000 (And won't have to give it back until they file this year's tax returns), first-time house buyers can get 5-10% loaned for the down deposit, and banks are giving mortgages with crazy low interest rates. Anyone else see an issue? A regular, decent house in my area would've been maybe $150,000 or $200,000 a year or two ago. Now, it's about $300,000 and steadily increasing. A minimum deposit is about 5% - the government is willing to do that and you already have $10k in the bank. A lot of people have lost, changed, or reduced their jobs to adapt to the new world. Our pay stubs from 2-3 years back IS NOT A HEALTHY INDICATOR . Our government is pushing the younger generation into buying houses that they honestly cannot afford. Almost everyone has been given all the tools to effectively place a down deposit on a house they probably cannot afford, and mortgage rates are so freaking low it seems like a no-brainer. Houses are increasing way too fast in this economy as a result of government stimulation, and like any market with huge volatility: it will start to swing downwards at some point. The question is: will we be able to control it? Once taxes come in, the mortgages go back up, the stimulation ends, and the prices start to find their middle ground, will everyone be secure enough to handle it? Final thoughts Our economy is in a stage of mania with our insane house prices and market recovery. It's like being at the doctor but they give you methamphetamine instead of morphine. - Will the come down be manageable or will it drive the economy into a huge fit? - Are we teetering towards another financial crisis brought by ridiculous loans? - Will we just continue this high until something else happens? - What can we do to increase the odds for a clean and healthy recovery? Thank you for reading. Near the middle point I let my mind wander. Please give me reasons that my logic is invalid as I am always trying to learn.
TVC:CA10Y
by woodyjohnson
WILL YIELDS DROP? CRAZY MOVES!Hey tradomaniacs, The market is seriously playing games here! 🙈 The blast of yields can not be sustainable as this is going to be a be a thorn in Powells flesh. Why is that? Basically because rising yields will "raise the price of" debts! First of all, this is a BET against the FED and looks like TEST. As often explained, YIELDS are currently rising due to the inflation-worries. BUT here is the thing: In his last testimonial Jerome Powell said the FED is not even close to its inflation-goal of 2%❗️ So you may ask yourself, when will the YIELDS stop rising? Well there are two options: 1️⃣ Yield-Curve-Controle with Bond-Buying-Purchases 2️⃣ To back down and change the current policy Yield-Curve-Controle of long-term-yields would be an option but probably not a solution as the FED would PRINT money in order to buy bonds 👉 More inflation 👉 More worries! Will 10-Year-Yields reject off the resistance and correct? We have to keep in mind that gamblers can bet on rising yields, which will likely take some of their profits. This could cause a retracement, but fundamentally I can`t really say whether the yields will continue to rise or not. One thing is for sure: Rising yields are showing cashflow out of equities into bonds and put stocks under pressure, especially NASDAQ100 and tec-stocks. If equities fall due to rising yields then US-DOLLAR will have a lot of support to change its trend❗️ Today we have got very nice pullbacks for almost all pairs! If we see profit-saves in YIELDS, in other words a correction, then we might see again soem risk-on and great opportunities to follow the trends! Very interesting, but also a very tricky situation for Forex-traders.🙏
TVC:US05
by Trading2ez
4
Gold - Higher Yields Weigh HeavilyRising bond yields are bad news for gold, which is trending lower as borrowing costs continue to spike. A strong global economic recovery comes at a cost and what we're seeing in bond markets is indicative of investors belief that the recovery is going to be very powerful indeed and bring with it inflation. The Fed and others have sought to play down the inflation risks and while Jerome Powell said all the right things in Congress this week, it's made little difference as we're seeing today. With yields rising across the board, the greenback has not been the main beneficiary of this and, in fact, the dollar index has slipped below 90 which could be a worrying sign for it. But that's not doing much to save gold, which is also falling today, down 1.5%. The outlook is not looking too bright for the yellow metal and we're now seeing it test some key support levels around $1,765. Unfortunately, it's not lacking momentum so they may not prove to be an enormous stumbling block. And the yield run doesn't appear to be slowing either. In the longer run, the next big test for gold is $1,660. It traded between here and a $1,760 for much of the second quarter of last year. It may see some initial support around $1,740 and $1,700 as well. While gold could rebound if central banks can arrest the rise we're seeing in yields, it's not looking that likely at the moment. We're not in taper tantrum territory, so they may not feel they have to. They may view this as an acceptable move in response to a strong recovery environment. Should it find some support sooner, then $1,850 remains the big test. A cluster of moving averages could make life difficult around that region. $1,800-1820 could also prove a challenging test.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by OANDA
2
Monitor Bond Yields - Feels like 1987?Hey there, thanks for reading my idea! This isn't financial advice. Remember to do your own DD. Investing is risky. This is connected to my "Feeling Overextended?" idea which can be found here . An important metric to watch when determining whether a recession is imminent is the inversion of the Treasury bonds yield curve. Most specifically, the 3-month, 2-year and 10-year yields. The inversion occurs when the shorter-term note yields begin to rise and exceed long-term note yields. Ideal bull market conditions would have higher yields in long-term notes and lower yields in short-term notes. Higher long-term yields forecast economic growth where the Government can be expected to be able to pay back the bond. Typically, higher yields are associated with higher interest rates, which poses as an investor risk, hence the higher yield premium. Meanwhile, higher short-term yields forecast economic downturn as investors look for shorter time horizon returns to minimize risk. We have to remember that the Fed is expanding it's balance sheet through QE by buying certain assets such as mortgage-backed securities and TREASURY NOTES from the market, and J. Powell is confidently using his tools to prevent a market crash. By buying Treasury notes, the Fed can manipulate yields to create a positive outlook of the economy through a "positive" yield curve, rather than an inverted yield curve. In fact, the Fed has accumulated approximately $3billion in Treasury notes since the Covid crash. (source here , scroll down to the Fed Balance Sheet graph.) Is it recession time yet according to the yields? Maybe not yet, but once the 3 month and 2 year yields begin to rise, this should place pressure on the 10 year yield to fall., setting the stage for the next downward cycle.
TVC:US10Y
by WhatsAStockMarketLOL
6
SPX500 COULD get PROBLEMS!Hey tradomaniacs, YIELDS are still in focus and could cause problems for the stock-markets. Why is that so important? First of all you have to know that there is a difference between capital market rates and the Federal Funds Rate. The Federal Funds Rate is an control mechanism to keep inflation, demand, supply and more economy related points balanced. Capital markets refer to the places where savings and investments are moved between suppliers of capital and those who are in need of capital. The rate of the capital market depends on the current risk which is increasing with the inflation. Example: Let`s say you borrow money to a customer with a duration of 1 year. In this time-period you expect inflation to increase, means the money that you will earn with this deal will have less value than now. As a compensation you claim a higher interest-rate in order to compensate the depreciation 👉 This is basically why YIELDS are currently rising! Additionally you claim a bonus for special risk as higher inflation could cause a payment default of your customer. This shows that Central Banks have way less impact on capital market rates, hence it is way harder to predict when YIELDS stop rising. Why could that be a problem for stocks? Inflation is good isn`t it? Simply because rising interes-rates mean less demand in credits due to higher expenses 👉 Less investment 👉 Less consume When you look at this context you could assume that we kinda stuck in a loop. 1️⃣ FED prints money and causes inflation 👉 Bad for dollar and good for stocks 2️⃣ Capital market rates rise due to inflation 👉 Good for dollar and bad for stocks ...and so on... I hope this helps you to understand why the current market is so choppy. LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Trading2ez
11