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Yields

Are we building a ladder with the steps we just used?Today was quite an interesting, and most likely historical day following the shenanigans of $GME. For me, it was a day to sit back, contemplate, & construct questions into the future of the economy in Canada. Please bear with me as this is my first idea, and I am admittedly a new trader (One year so far). Comparing 3 types of bond yields: 10Y, 2Y, and 3MO has been quite the staple for determining the direction of our economy. Our interest rates, the general market outlook, and also what the government is doing financially. Like an electrical circuit, we can see that each time these 3 graphs begin to touch, the economy short circuits and is sent spiraling downwards. I'd like to start where a lot of people start, and a lot of people groan as well when they hear this: the stock market crash of 2008. First, it would be ignorant to completely declare this fiasco as identical. However, there are many parts that are (and continue) to be similar. Some people say the stock market is just an irrational machine. Any sort of programmer would laugh at the idea of true randomness. I believe it is a system of gears that are controlled by millions of different entities and that it's our job to be able to understand which gear(s) are controlling each sector to formulate a decent idea, or fair percentage to make our predictions. The first and most obvious similarity between these crashes is the level CORRA (Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average). The Bank of Canada has taken control of the CORRA and it " will be further adopted across a wide range of financial products and could potentially become the dominant Canadian interest rate benchmark, particularly in derivatives markets". There's an obvious pattern of the market reacting violently to the CORRA rate and as of right now, they are at the same level as the 2008 stock market crash. The very first sign of a stock market short circuit can be noticed with the 10 and 2 year bond yield rate. From almost December 2005 these rates were starting to close in together, leading to complete cross-under of the 3 month yield and shortly after - the great 2008 stock market crash. For our recent crash we had it play out almost exactly the same: tightening between 10Y & 2Y, and then a cross-under of the 3 month. Shortly after, the crash occurred. Now, what's different? Well only that the 3 month yield appropriately spaced itself from the 2Y from the 2008 market crash. I'm sure we all know but the main cause of the 2008 crash was from too many people defaulting on loans that they shouldn't have been given in the first place. However, when this crash occurred our different yields are took their respective position to comfortably restart. In our new crash the 3 month and 2 year yields are still confused while the 10 year is entering a parabolic increase. The last time something occurred similar to this (noted by the squares) we entered a bear market that took a hit to the real estate industry first. So, what's the problem? I believe we all got a little too worried about the result of this pandemic, but were saved by the technology industry. Most people in high-end jobs were able to continue working without much difference, and people in low-end jobs pretty much had to continue working - but were labelled as heroes. Additionally, there has been a lot of new faces (including mine) in the stock market world, stimulate bonuses were (and still are, I believe) given to everyone and their 14 year old kids (seriously). A lot of people have taken up online hobbies, stores, and especially jobs that they can do remotely. We are humans, we learn to adapt in every situation, and that's why we're the kings of this world. Despite the lovely recovery, there's echoes and signs that are increasing in strength. In boxing, a fighter can be the best and be unmatched - only to have it all taken away from one loss and never recover again I find the market to be a swinging pendulum. It goes up, it goes down. There's an invisible line of gravity that we accept and it swings depending on the uncertainty and volume. When we defeat our fears we need to stay humble before we start to believe we're invincible. The biggest industry of Canada (that controls 13% of the GDP) is.... real estate. I'm sure every Canadian here that's looking to buy a house in wincing in pain, and everyone that already has a house has the biggest grin. I was reading that Toronto went up around 15% in real estate in January. What the heck is going on?? . My friend recently purchased a nice condo in Quebec which costed $430,000. Does my friend make the kind of money to justify a house that expensive? Heck no. Can we just flip back to the 2008 market crash? We remember what caused it right? Ridiculous loans that were given out, and that were defaulted because they were ridiculous. Now, I'm not saying that this crash was similar, but I am trying to imply that we are on the verge of hitting that crash again. CERB has effectively given everyone who can fill out a form a bit over $10,000. Some people didn't even EARN $10,000 in a year but they still got it. It's still continuing under some new name so the amount is still increasing. Secondly, any new home buyers are eligible for a government loan that pretty much equates to 5 - 10% of the down deposit. So let's get this straight: Everyone and their child has received ATLEAST $10,000 (And won't have to give it back until they file this year's tax returns), first-time house buyers can get 5-10% loaned for the down deposit, and banks are giving mortgages with crazy low interest rates. Anyone else see an issue? A regular, decent house in my area would've been maybe $150,000 or $200,000 a year or two ago. Now, it's about $300,000 and steadily increasing. A minimum deposit is about 5% - the government is willing to do that and you already have $10k in the bank. A lot of people have lost, changed, or reduced their jobs to adapt to the new world. Our pay stubs from 2-3 years back IS NOT A HEALTHY INDICATOR . Our government is pushing the younger generation into buying houses that they honestly cannot afford. Almost everyone has been given all the tools to effectively place a down deposit on a house they probably cannot afford, and mortgage rates are so freaking low it seems like a no-brainer. Houses are increasing way too fast in this economy as a result of government stimulation, and like any market with huge volatility: it will start to swing downwards at some point. The question is: will we be able to control it? Once taxes come in, the mortgages go back up, the stimulation ends, and the prices start to find their middle ground, will everyone be secure enough to handle it? Final thoughts Our economy is in a stage of mania with our insane house prices and market recovery. It's like being at the doctor but they give you methamphetamine instead of morphine. - Will the come down be manageable or will it drive the economy into a huge fit? - Are we teetering towards another financial crisis brought by ridiculous loans? - Will we just continue this high until something else happens? - What can we do to increase the odds for a clean and healthy recovery? Thank you for reading. Near the middle point I let my mind wander. Please give me reasons that my logic is invalid as I am always trying to learn.
TVC:CA10Y
by woodyjohnson
WILL YIELDS DROP? CRAZY MOVES!Hey tradomaniacs, The market is seriously playing games here! 🙈 The blast of yields can not be sustainable as this is going to be a be a thorn in Powells flesh. Why is that? Basically because rising yields will "raise the price of" debts! First of all, this is a BET against the FED and looks like TEST. As often explained, YIELDS are currently rising due to the inflation-worries. BUT here is the thing: In his last testimonial Jerome Powell said the FED is not even close to its inflation-goal of 2%❗️ So you may ask yourself, when will the YIELDS stop rising? Well there are two options: 1️⃣ Yield-Curve-Controle with Bond-Buying-Purchases 2️⃣ To back down and change the current policy Yield-Curve-Controle of long-term-yields would be an option but probably not a solution as the FED would PRINT money in order to buy bonds 👉 More inflation 👉 More worries! Will 10-Year-Yields reject off the resistance and correct? We have to keep in mind that gamblers can bet on rising yields, which will likely take some of their profits. This could cause a retracement, but fundamentally I can`t really say whether the yields will continue to rise or not. One thing is for sure: Rising yields are showing cashflow out of equities into bonds and put stocks under pressure, especially NASDAQ100 and tec-stocks. If equities fall due to rising yields then US-DOLLAR will have a lot of support to change its trend❗️ Today we have got very nice pullbacks for almost all pairs! If we see profit-saves in YIELDS, in other words a correction, then we might see again soem risk-on and great opportunities to follow the trends! Very interesting, but also a very tricky situation for Forex-traders.🙏
TVC:US05
by Trading2ez
4
Gold - Higher Yields Weigh HeavilyRising bond yields are bad news for gold, which is trending lower as borrowing costs continue to spike. A strong global economic recovery comes at a cost and what we're seeing in bond markets is indicative of investors belief that the recovery is going to be very powerful indeed and bring with it inflation. The Fed and others have sought to play down the inflation risks and while Jerome Powell said all the right things in Congress this week, it's made little difference as we're seeing today. With yields rising across the board, the greenback has not been the main beneficiary of this and, in fact, the dollar index has slipped below 90 which could be a worrying sign for it. But that's not doing much to save gold, which is also falling today, down 1.5%. The outlook is not looking too bright for the yellow metal and we're now seeing it test some key support levels around $1,765. Unfortunately, it's not lacking momentum so they may not prove to be an enormous stumbling block. And the yield run doesn't appear to be slowing either. In the longer run, the next big test for gold is $1,660. It traded between here and a $1,760 for much of the second quarter of last year. It may see some initial support around $1,740 and $1,700 as well. While gold could rebound if central banks can arrest the rise we're seeing in yields, it's not looking that likely at the moment. We're not in taper tantrum territory, so they may not feel they have to. They may view this as an acceptable move in response to a strong recovery environment. Should it find some support sooner, then $1,850 remains the big test. A cluster of moving averages could make life difficult around that region. $1,800-1820 could also prove a challenging test.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by OANDA
2
Monitor Bond Yields - Feels like 1987?Hey there, thanks for reading my idea! This isn't financial advice. Remember to do your own DD. Investing is risky. This is connected to my "Feeling Overextended?" idea which can be found here . An important metric to watch when determining whether a recession is imminent is the inversion of the Treasury bonds yield curve. Most specifically, the 3-month, 2-year and 10-year yields. The inversion occurs when the shorter-term note yields begin to rise and exceed long-term note yields. Ideal bull market conditions would have higher yields in long-term notes and lower yields in short-term notes. Higher long-term yields forecast economic growth where the Government can be expected to be able to pay back the bond. Typically, higher yields are associated with higher interest rates, which poses as an investor risk, hence the higher yield premium. Meanwhile, higher short-term yields forecast economic downturn as investors look for shorter time horizon returns to minimize risk. We have to remember that the Fed is expanding it's balance sheet through QE by buying certain assets such as mortgage-backed securities and TREASURY NOTES from the market, and J. Powell is confidently using his tools to prevent a market crash. By buying Treasury notes, the Fed can manipulate yields to create a positive outlook of the economy through a "positive" yield curve, rather than an inverted yield curve. In fact, the Fed has accumulated approximately $3billion in Treasury notes since the Covid crash. (source here , scroll down to the Fed Balance Sheet graph.) Is it recession time yet according to the yields? Maybe not yet, but once the 3 month and 2 year yields begin to rise, this should place pressure on the 10 year yield to fall., setting the stage for the next downward cycle.
TVC:US10Y
by WhatsAStockMarketLOL
6
SPX500 COULD get PROBLEMS!Hey tradomaniacs, YIELDS are still in focus and could cause problems for the stock-markets. Why is that so important? First of all you have to know that there is a difference between capital market rates and the Federal Funds Rate. The Federal Funds Rate is an control mechanism to keep inflation, demand, supply and more economy related points balanced. Capital markets refer to the places where savings and investments are moved between suppliers of capital and those who are in need of capital. The rate of the capital market depends on the current risk which is increasing with the inflation. Example: Let`s say you borrow money to a customer with a duration of 1 year. In this time-period you expect inflation to increase, means the money that you will earn with this deal will have less value than now. As a compensation you claim a higher interest-rate in order to compensate the depreciation 👉 This is basically why YIELDS are currently rising! Additionally you claim a bonus for special risk as higher inflation could cause a payment default of your customer. This shows that Central Banks have way less impact on capital market rates, hence it is way harder to predict when YIELDS stop rising. Why could that be a problem for stocks? Inflation is good isn`t it? Simply because rising interes-rates mean less demand in credits due to higher expenses 👉 Less investment 👉 Less consume When you look at this context you could assume that we kinda stuck in a loop. 1️⃣ FED prints money and causes inflation 👉 Bad for dollar and good for stocks 2️⃣ Capital market rates rise due to inflation 👉 Good for dollar and bad for stocks ...and so on... I hope this helps you to understand why the current market is so choppy. LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Trading2ez
11
Should you be concerned treasury yields are rising?The lowest-rated debt keeps outperforming safer securities, with investors apparently more concerned about Treasury yields moving higher than credit risk. Investors are now demanding the least extra yield to own junk bonds over investment-grade notes since 2014. Rising treasury yields implies one of two scenarios is happening or about to happen. 1. Global economic recovery is happening as a result of increasing vaccination and economic activity as countries open up. Inflation is actually rising to Central Banks' targets 2. Markets are about to crash with US FED & ECB struggling to push inflation higher. What are the financial markets telling you? DXY? S&P500? DAX 30? Commodities?
U
by GrizzlyBearBee
WHY IS FOREX not moving? Here is the answer!Hey tradomaniacs, As you may have noticed the market is not moving as it should looking at fundamentals and news which is why I`m still staying aside. A positive newsflow of economic data and very good earning reports plus a rising stockmarket are not really driving currencies as they should due to the fact possible stimulus could continue to boost US-YIELDS, which is currently in favour of the US-Dollar . In this case we got two intermarket-correlations which are contrary making it harder for forex-pairs to move smooth and clear (especially risk-on-pairs such as AUD/USD and NZD/USD ). Another example is USD/CAD as the market does not really know where to go as CRUDE OIL currently rises with the US-Dollar . DXY (US-DOLLAR-INDEX) is by the way creating its first divergences looking at Momentum and indicators such as MAC-D and RSI and I`m waiting for the market either to break through the key-resistance or to create a double-top. Bond prices and yield are by the way inversely related. So what shall we look at? As long as YIELDS continue to be strong with risk-on in the stockmarket we might see currencies stuck in major trend-areas. This means we either wanna see risk-off in stocks for a bullish USD or falling YIELDS with rsik-on in the stockmarket for a bearish USD! LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me! #Patience
TVC:DXY
by Trading2ez
8
AUDUSD - IS IT TIME TO SELL...?! AUDUSD - Technical View: We've had a bit of a risk on move start this morning but equities and yields are both at key areas. In technical aspect we are a key resistance area in Aussie where I will be looking to add a short position on and scale in as time goes by. Technical: Pattern: Double Top for wedge forming. Support: 0.76425, 0.76280, 0.758050 (200EMA) Resistance: 0.77275, 0.77435, 0.77830 (50EMA) Fibonacci Retracement: 0.618 - 1.618 or 0.382 - 1.618 Ways to trade Aussie? - You could enter short position at this current moment of time and scale in towards key areas. - Add an order towards the key areas once breached - Double top, we at resistance - putting your stop as the correct area that goes with your plan will be something to think about - Go with what's in your trade plan not forgetting where you'd like to enter making it a great R/R (Risk/Reward) Trade. Fundamentals: - President-Elect Biden Speaks - Treasury nominee Janet Yellen to say U.S. does not seek weaker dollar: WSJ Key tip: Add your own creativeness towards your trading plan towards this idea - the idea I generate for you is only here to give you extra confluence towards your trading. Overall, it's at key area AUD for perhaps an intra-day/swing trade if planned correctly & depending on fundamental aspects as well. All the best, Trade Journal (Just trade ideas, not recommendation)
by Trade_Journal
(DXY) What Really Is Driving Gold (Yields)There is much speculation across the investor universe about what influences Gold prices and vice versa. Today I will be focusing on the false theory that Gold prices lead treasury yields and that by extension, Gold signals market crashes. The Financial Solar System Taking a look at the chart it is clear that sometimes Gold prices parallel and slightly lead treasury yields. However, if we overlay the Dollar index it is astronomically clear that the only times that Gold does this is when the Dollar's gravitational pull temporarily alters Gold's trajectory. Gold prices at the root are inversely corelated with Treasury yields. It is really that simple. The Treasury market is the Sun while Gold, the Dollar, and the Stock market are planets. As treasury yields ultimately dominate and inversely lead Gold prices, the Dollar acts as a secondary force. Yields are the only pre-signal for Market crashes and it looks to me like another leg down is imminent. However, it also looks like the dollar is setting up for a relief rally which means Gold would plummet along side stocks before the Sun sling shots it to new highs.
TVC:GOLD
by trade-God
1
Real Yields vs. GoldThe correlation between real yields and gold price is well known, has strengthened since 2018 and in many ways works a lot better than e.g. the one with the M2 Money Stock. The (speculative) overshoot in gold in August 2020, very much like the one in August 2011 has corrected. Assuming the correlation remains strong, further price action in gold will depend on where real yields go. After the GFC real yields reached -1.67%. Considering the largest portion of bankruptcies of this recession is yet to come and seeing that real yields during the aftermath of the GFC occurred in Sep 2012, almost five years after it started, combined with record debts mandating low yields and low inflation expectations, I suspect in the coming years real yields will go lower and barring attractive investment opportunities gold still higher. NB: In 2012 gold could not achieve another record high despite lower real yields. The high from 2011 remained the record high until this year. Silver is included for comparison, it is not far off the mark.
ULong
by starfox2000
Metals sold off yesterday because of bond yieldsIn a recent post, I showed the strong correlation between inverted real bond yields and gold and silver: The hot inflation data yesterday and today drove nominal bond yields sharply higher. Bond investors demand higher yields when inflation is hot, which is why nominal yields rose. The rise in nominal yields broke a trend line. Here is the trend line break on the nominal 10-year yield: The trend line break suggests it might be a good time to be short on treasury bond funds like VGLT, since bond prices fall as nominal yields rise-- however, keep reading, because as I'll note later in the post, you've got to beware of Fed yield curve control. The picture for real yields is a little more complicated. The real yields chart above only shows data up to August 10, because the chart lags a couple days. Real yield is calculated by subtracting 10-year breakeven inflation from 10-year nominal yield. FRED's 10-year breakeven inflation rate was priced at 1.63% as of last update yesterday: However, the new CPI number implies an annualized inflation rate in the neighborhood of 6.0 - 7.5% this year. Obviously no one expects that to persist for 10 years, but the 10-year breakeven inflation rate is bound to keep creeping upward after this hot CPI read. The question is whether it will move upward faster than nominal bond yields. If so, then real yields will continue to fall. If not, then real yields will start to rise. It's possible, as a recent Seeking Alpha article argued, that the Fed is already exercising yield curve control to keep nominal 10-year yields in the range of 0.6-0.7%. If so, then we should expect nominal yields to stabilize here rather than to keep moving upward. If nominal yields do stabilize, then the rising 10-year breakeven inflation rate should continue to drive real yields lower and gold and silver higher. seekingalpha.com However, the trend line break in nominal yields suggests that if the Fed doesn't exert yield curve control, then we might see rising nominal yields outpace 10-year breakeven inflation for a little while, driving gold and silver lower. The next three or four days of real yields data should provide an important signal for where real yields and metals go from here. My best guess is that metals will bounce for at least the next day or two, and then we'll see from there.
AMEX:GLD
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
2
Wondering why GOLD drops? Here is WHY!Hey tradomaniacs, lots of Robin-Hood-Traders are asking themselfs: Why is gold and silver dropping? Well it can have a lot of reasons such as Profit-Saves due to the overbought situation, the fact that stock-market continues to climb and SPX500 is almost at its All-Time-High (portfolio turnover). It can be the fact that DXY (US-DOLLAR-INDEX) is oversold and so likely to retrace. There can be a lot of reasons but one very obvious correlation that makes sense: US BONDS YIELD went straight up after hitting an all-time-low. Why is that? When there is still uncertainy and fear the stock-market all the institutional traders are looking for save havens. Save havens are usually alternatives to stocks such as metals, currencies like YEN and CHF or BONDS as you get a safe and fix return for your investment. But what if the interest rates are too low? You look for alternative assets which are not interest. Gold has always been a save haven, which is the reason why the current rally makes no sense. Why would CHF, YEN, metals such as Silver and Gold climb at the same time? Because the market is uncertain! Gold currently has a negative correlation with US-BOND-YIELDS as it is a no interest asset and a good alternative for a low-interest-market. Watch these YIELDS when you do your analiysis for gold. ;-) LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? PM me. :-)
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Trading2ez
1
Greece 10-year bond nearing ALL-TIME lowsReally, really remarkable to see this. Remember the Greek/eurozone debt crisis? That's what the big spike is. Now, here we are. Greek bonds are nearing their lowest levels ever. The only explanation is that people are seeking the safest form of assets in government bonds and Central Banks are becoming more helpful managing debt and supporting their countries. I share this as an observation that is shaping the world and the economy picture. It also is potentially showing the strength of the Eurozone and the way the countries are coming together. Pay attention to the EURUSD or European assets in these countries. If they are indeed balancing their budget, have their fiscal house in order, and the central banks are willing to support them, Europe could be ready for some more strength.
TVC:GR10Y
by scheplick