Are stocks crashing? Watch the junk credit spread.With the increased volatility this year after such a long period without any significant declines has got some wondering if the market has peaked, or even about to crash. To get a better idea of what’s going on ‘under the hood’, we can study the high yield ‘junk credit’ market. High yield is also known as ‘junk credit’ for its higher risk of default and being rated below investment grade. This heightened risk means greater sensitivity to market conditions, and can serve as a 'canary in the coal mine'.
The Merrill Lynch High Yield index has a yield of 6.36% at the moment. This is close to the 6% combined ‘yield’ of the S&P500 trailing earnings and dividend. When junk bond market is under stress and fear of default is rising, the yields ‘blow out’ or spike quickly. (We’re seeing this happen right now with concerns over TSLA credit).
The chart shows how yields 'blew out' during times of stress. The orange line is the additional yield offered by the high yield index after subtracting the ‘risk free’ treasury rate. This ‘spread’ gives us a better idea of the risk premium demanded by junk credit investors. Currently the spread remains lower in around the range under 3.6%.
The S&P500 index in blue is compared to the Merrill Lynch B grade corporate yield spread. At each of the previous peaks before the stock market crashed, there was a sudden spike in the credit spread. We even saw this spike in 2011 and 2015 when default fears increased. At the moment we’ve yet to see a similar jump in the high yield spread. Which would suggest that currently investors are not sensing any increasing risk of default (at least for now). A spread approaching the long term median or average range of 5% would give cause for alarm.
The Merrill Lynch high yield spread chart is updated daily here:
fred.stlouisfed.org
The WSJ updates bond benchmarks daily here:
www.wsj.com
Yields
Relative yield spread of currencies of usd-basket VS the usdThis line charts gives an idea how a currencies 10yr yield develop, relatively, vs the usd 10 yr yield. This goes only back to 2012-ish since no earlier data was available via the tickerdata. Trying to acquire new ticker data so we can make it complete up until the 90's. It should provide a clue where the USD is going short/medium term. Considering the output of this graph we can say that we are bullish usd with a possible target of at least 95 when rate hike happens next wednesday. Also its likely we will put a new 6-year high on the t-note when next ratehike happens. This is a major event.
Rate 'Normalization' This chart shows the ML investment grade corporate bond index yield vs the trailing SPX earnings yield (E/P ratio). From 2004-2007 the investment grade bond index and SPX earnings yield appear balanced near equal valuation. The red box from 2007 to 2009 marks the peak of the market to 2009 when the SPX sunk to recession lows. Note the following period of QE when the Fed fund policy of near zero lowered bond yields relative to equity earnings yield. Lately it appears that the SPX trailing E/P ratio and IG corporate bond yields appear to have finally 'normalized' and returned back to a range of equal valuation.
However, investors can reasonably expect increased volatility ahead as the Fed begins this next phase of QT. The Fed forecasts a rise in the overnight lending rate and continued unloading of the balance sheet. This is likely to stress the equity and investment grade bond valuations which are currently 'priced to perfection'.
Chart data:
'QUANDL:ML/USEY'-'QUANDL:MULTPL/SP500_EARNINGS_YIELD_MONTH'
SO Long to 50's with 5.39% yieldDouble Divergence seen on RSI along with price confirmation of SO's most recent bottom. A "W" pattern is also setting up with a break above $45 further solidifying the opportunity for a low risk positional trade when taking the stated yield % into account. Pin bar seen on Heavy volume, and the most recent double bottom also coming on good volume.
US 10Y T-NOTE -> COMING CLOSE TO A MAJOR TURNING POINT?Still cannot know whether the underlying asset will be turning from the 1.382 / .50 or the 1.618 / .618 but there is a strong confluence on both levels which makes me believe that one of them which prove to be a a key reversal point.
Also judging by the strong correlation between 10-Y yields and the DXY which is also nearing a major reversal point we could in effect anticipate a similar behavior on both, of one confirming the other.
For risk and money management purposes, always determine a max. of 2% risk on every trade.
For example on a $50,000 account, this would be equivalent to 1,25 Lots with an 80 pip stop loss.
Targets and closure of positions may be subject to alteration throughout the course of the trade. This is due to the ever-changing and unpredictable nature of the market.
This post is set to be used and serve as an example and in an educational manner and is not to be taken as direct investment advice.
TYX ending it's 30 year downtrend?TYX aka 30 year treasury yields seem to be on the verge of ending it's 30 year downtrend. Short term ripe for a move down considering overhead resistance, but long term seems more likely to move up or sideways rather than lower considering it is near it's apex and shorter term rates are already strong.
Could Italian BTP Yields Catch Up With Bunds & US?Short 10 Year Italian BTP Futures as a hedge and catch up play with U.S. treasury and German Bund Yields.
US 10 YEAR YIELDS ****EM TRADERS!!!!US Generic 10 yr yields took a leap towards the reverse h&s neckline, 2.60% is the key level the watch.
if yields breach above 2.60 music stops for the long EM trades for the short term!
hedge longs especially fragile 5s ccy and bonds
Yield Curve Continues to FallAs investors price in lower inflation and increased expectations for a Fed rate hike, the yield curve (between the 30 year bond and the two year note) is continuously making new lows. Typically, the flattening or steepening of the yield curve is led by one end, but in this case, both appear to be contributing equally. This presents a problem for the Fed as raising rates (or more hawkish rhetoric) could hurl the yield curve closer to negative territory.
We can see the spread has been hugging the lower bound of the Kovach Reversals Indicator for some time, which is an extremely bearish sign. Also, the slope of the spread has become increasingly more negative.
If you want access to the Kovach Reversals indicator and more, check out quantguy.net.
China vs US 10Y Yields China 10y yields lead US yields
When spread is outside of BB, US yields should move in the coming weeks.
Also, China 10Y yields track Copper prices
Source: www.mcoscillator.com
US Yield Curve ( 2 minus 10 year ) and some COT analysis US Yield Curve ( 2 minus 10 year ) - Commitment of Traders - Futures Only - Percent of Open Interest - Legacy Format - Calculation of
10 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts with sum of 2 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts
A sick market - China 10 year bonds future marketToday let's look at the China 10 year bonds future market.
As the most important market of controlling the inflation , those "jigou" ( securities company hedging manager in Chinese) are buying this market into Renminbi interests lower which is canceling the 13th. March hike. This has caused 3 months inflation lower in China till the June. ( maybe they're saving their ass from the buying failure in 2016)
There's a system bug between "zhengjianhui" ( China Securities Regulatory Commission in Chinese) and the PBOC as an administration absence in China 10 year bonds future market.
This market has no administration, crazy...
I here urge the China authorities assembling a super administration bank like the U.K or the USA as soon as possible. With a new rising cycle beginning those bugs could damage the safety of financial system in the future
10 Year T-Note Futures: Uptrend in motionWe have a strong uptrend signal in treasury notes and potential for a big upside move. I'm currently long $TMF, as my proxy for this move, since $TLT was lower than 10 Year Note futures, offering a more interesting risk/reward (as per Tim West's posts). Right now, I think the move to the upside is confirmed, so, if you're not in, you could look into buying either instrument on dips. Stop losses can be tight, but you're better off without one, and simply adjusting size based on volatility (1-3 times the daily ATR -11 periods- for your 'stop' distance, and thus size to fit your risk criteria).
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Treasury Yields Surge but the Dollar Stays PutOver supply from the auctions should keep treasury yields rising to test the high @ 2.65 on the 10yr. Bills and 7yr being auctioned tomorrow should continue to fuel the Dow higher. $DXY might follow yields to 102 forming a right shoulder depending on the data tomorrow and Friday.
Economic cycle, market cycle, interest rates, trend lines & SPXThis chart provides probable market behavior given current market behavior, interest rates, and other factors such as presidential elections.
www.tradingview.com
I am expecting a down turn during the next week which would last until late February and another leg up in SPX until the final move down in August 2017.
Trend line colors mark the same conditions on both cycles.
long US10 @ 15 min @ trading capability for this 52nd week `16This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Next week i`ll confirm or change my opinion about this SetUp :)
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
Best regards
Aaron
US 10-yr yield – rally overdone or more to come?The global benchmark for the rates – the US 10-year Treasury yield has rallied this month from 1.77% to a high of 2.417%.
Such a sharp rise in yields in such a short period of time is undesirable since the world is awash with debt…as noted by Nicole Elliot on yesterday’s Finance show
Marc Ostwald, Strategist at ADMISI also noted the sharp spike is overdone on today’s Finance show. However, he also makes an important point – The rise in yields is not only due to Trump Bump and the resulting rise in Fed rate hike bets, but also due to the fact that China and Gulf nations are liquidating their treasury holdings.
Coming to technicals – Monthly chart
The yield has retraced 23.6% of the drop from 2006 high to 2016 low. The Fibo level is 2.269%.
We also see a bullish break from the falling channel.
Furthermore, the monthly 50-MA appears to have bottomed out.
To me, technicals suggest the yield has bottomed out. Agreed that the spike is overdone and technical correction is likely. However, the yield may have made a long-term bottom.
UK 10-yr Gilt – Weekly 5-MA could be put to testGilt’s daily close above 127.23 (23.6% Fibo retracement) on Monday if followed by a move back above resistance at 127.63 could yield a rally to weekly 5-MA level of 128.03 – 128.22 (38.2% Fibo).
On the lower side, failure to hold above 127.23 followed by a break below 126.42 (Oct 20 low) would open doors for a re-test of 125.63 (Oct 17 low).
UK 10-yr Gilt – Stuck at 23.6% FiboRebound from the low of 125.627 on the back of a bullish price RSI divergence and a bullish MACD crossover has run into resistance at 127.23, which is 23.6% Fibo resistance of the sell-off from 132.424-125.627.
Given the bullish divergence on the 4-hr and bullish pin bar on the daily chart the odds of a break above 127.23 and a rise to 128.00 are high.
Only a failure at 127.23 followed by a break below 126.37 would signal loss of bullish momentum.
UK 10-yr Gilts – Short-term bottom in placeBullish price RSI divergence on 4-hr chart followed by a rise to 127.00 levels suggests a retreat from Sep 27 high of 131.94 may have run out of steam and prices could rally further if the hurdle at 127.39 (Falling trend line + 23.6% Fibo) is breached.
On the lower side, only a break below 125.84 would signal fresh sell-off.
German 10-yr Bunds at key support, bullish divergence on intradaGerman 10-yr Bund prices dropped to rising trend line support coming from June low and July low.
Prices are attempting a rebound form the rising trend line support and the odds of a solid rebound are high, if we take into consideration the bullish price RSI divergence on the hourly and 4-hr chart. Even the MACD is suggesting the bearish momentum has run out of steam.
Possible rebound in Bund (drop in yields) suggests we may be in for a more pronounced bout of risk aversion in the financial markets.
