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Yields

Bond Market Hints Towards a Second Wave of Shorts to hit the JPYLate last year the Spread of the US/JP Carry Trade hit the PCZ of a Bearish Shark resulting in it pulling back to the 50% Retrace, this came ahead of Bearish Action in the stock market and strength in the JPY. However, the bounce at the 50% retrace indicates that it could turn into a Bullish 5-0 which would result in higher highs. In addition to that, the leverage ratio on the trade has been forming what looks to be a nice looking Cup with Handle pattern, which if it plays out would bring the leverage ratios up from 500% to well over 800%. This would likely align with higher highs in the SPX, Higher Inflation Rates, Higher Commodity, Import/Export Costs, and a continuation of the falling Japanese Yen. I will leave the chart of last year's Carry Spread Chart Post below for reference.
TVC:US10YLong
by RizeSenpai
US10Y First 1D Golden Cross after 9 months formed!The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, and continues to follow the buy signal we gave on January 24 (see chart below): The key development today is the formation of the first Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame in 9 months (since July 10 2023). This is a huge technical buy signal on its own and becomes even more so since it is so rare. The previous Golden Cross before July 2023 was on October 29 2021, which means that when the market forms this pattern, the price rallies aggressively. That is exactly what we expect to happen now. A short-term pull-back to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) similar to July 19 2023, is possible but as long as it holds, we expect our 5.000% Target to get hit relatively soon. Beyond that, we need to see the previous Higher High breaking (similar to August 21 2023) to justify further buying. If that happens we will look for a new Higher High extension on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, approximately around 5.800%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YLong
by TradingShot
1
Are Interest Rates going Higher?What would cause rates to move higher? Inflation 2.0? According to this long term yield chart were about to experience a paradigm shift in rates. If this Monthly Golden cross occurs we should see a bull market in rates continue into the future. This would not be a good sing for risk equites. The last time we got the opposite signal" Death cross" we saw a 30 year bond bull market/ 30 year bear yield market. Maybe the traditional 60 equity/40 bond gets toppled. Maybe we move to a 40 equity/60 bond portfolio. If This rotation was to occur, the stock market would likely see a significant loss.
TVC:US10Y
by Trading-Capital
1
Real yield in uptrendThe weekly real yield is in uptrend, which should act as support for the USDOLLAR and as a headwind for the risk markets. This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
JSE:GFI
by FXCM
Goldaholics Anonymous Pour yourself a glass of Goldschläger and let's review the 12 steps before diving into this. 1. We admitted that we were powerless over the Fed -- that our balance sheet had become unmanageable. 2. Came to believe that a Power greater than our central bank could restore us to solvency. 3. Made a decision to turn our fiat over to the care of sound money, as we understood it. 4. Made a searching and fearless inventory of our finances. 5. Admitted to Peter Schiff, Lyn Alden, and Pomp the exact nature of our wrongs. 6. Were entirely ready to have big, fat Gains. 7. Humbly asked to avoid getting short squeezed. 8. Made a list of all the naysayers about to be harmed. 9. Sent direct messages to them to gloat in victory. 10. Continued to count our gains and polish our bullion. 11. Sought through fundamental and technical analysis to improve our entries and exits. 12. Having had a financial awakening as the result of these steps, we tried to carry this message to other goldaholics, and practice these principles in all of our trades. Macro Fibonacci Below we can see the magic of Fibonacci extensions, measuring the last macro bull run to the 2016 low. Zooming in a bit, it is clear that these levels attract attention. Each one of these fibs acts as a step in the staircase. All we need to do is look at volume and price action to validate each level. The smart money had their sell orders at the 0.618 Fibonacci extension. The 0.5 could not hold which indicates that the next level down will be tested. Watch for heavy volume to come in there near the 0.382 level. In the U.S. stock market and many other developed financial markets, about 70-80 percent of overall trading volume is generated through algorithmic trading. Historical Price Action Looking back to the last bull run there are a few simple patterns to watch for... 1. Weekly MACD flailing around above the zero level. 2. Mark the down trends and wait for the break. 3. Price action is above the 20 Week EMA. Trading Setup Using historical price action the trading setup becomes clear... 1. Weekly MACD is flailing above the zero level. 2. The down trend line is clear. Wait for the break. 3. Wait for 20 Week EMA support. Now, the targets are the Fibonacci levels above, and the ghost bars look reasonable, however, it would be wise to take a look at what exactly is driving Gold on this path. The U.S. Dollar The Dollar index inversely pressures Gold prices so this is worth noting. 1. Momentum is shifting bullish as a bullish MACD divergence reveals itself on the daily chart. 2. This recent move was the 3rd wave down which often precedes a reversal. 3. The index is at the bottom of this future channel. As this index recovers back towards the 200 Week EMA, it will surely scare the metals market. However, the macro downtrend is only on it's first wave down. From a technical standpoint, the second wave is often the deepest as panic sets in from the failed recovery. Treasury Yields Yields recently had a similar bullish MACD divergence with a very weak recovery that followed. The trend is still clear and it's highly likely to roll over as it timidly approaches the trendline in the coming months. Gold has been riding along side Bonds so this should continue to drive up prices. Depending on the severity of falling yields, it could trigger temporary crashes in the metals. But longer term, buying the dips is the way to go. Trading is risky. Don't do it. Long Bullion: Gold, Silver, Platinum Equities: GDX, PHYS, CEF, SLV, RIO, SPPP Futures: (Not yet)
TVC:GOLDLong
by trade-God
4
Bearish Yields Could Send USDollar LowerUS Yields have topped back in October 2023 with sharp leg down, which is from Elliott wave perspective first leg A of a deeper A-B-C decline that can send the price back to the former wave 4 area to 3.25% - 2.5%. At the same time, we can see USdollar Index - DXY also turning down due to a positive correlation with Yields, we just saw some divergence in 2023. Currently we can see some recovery for the USdollar, as Yields are in a corrective rally within wave B, but as soon as wave C shows up, USdollar can be back to bearish mode. If we respect technical analysis, Elliott wave theory and positive correlation in the markets, then Yields could send USdollar - DXY lower away from important trendline connected from the highs soon.
TVC:US10YShort
by ew-forecast
US10Y Touched its 1D MA50. Time to rebound?The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, which we gave a buy signal on last time (January 24, see chart below): Yesterday it touched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line for the first time since the February 05 break-out. During the previous leg of the 1.5 year Channel Up, the 1D MA50 held all the way until the formation of the new Higher High. As a result, we are bullish as long as it closes the 1D candles above it, with our 5.000% Target intact. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YLong
by TradingShot
2
IEF: Holding on to an Established Trendline at the 0.382 RetraceThe IEF (US 7-10 year Treasury ETF), has held on to the 0.382 Fibonacci Retrace aligning with a Long-term and Established Trend line and the 200-Month Simple Moving Average with high amounts of MACD Bullish Divergence and a move above the 0 line on the Oscillators. All of these factors point towards lower yields in the 7-10 Year Treasuries and an increase in par value on the bonds themselves. Bullish setups can also be found in other duration ETFs such as the TLT and SHY representing the 20 Year and the 1-3 Year Bonds. I suspect that all this Bullishness on Bonds will come with the Uninverting of the Yield Curve, which may align in commodities blasting off much higher in the short term, but in the long term could result in the resetting of the Bullish Cycle in Equities and Commodities alike.
NASDAQ:IEFLong
by RizeSenpai
TLT: Piercing Line on the Quarterly Chart Signaling Lower YieldsTLT (The 20-Year US Treasury Bond ETF) has recently completed the measured move of the Ascending Broadening Wedge Breakdown and has now confirmed a Piercing Line on the 3-Month Chart while closing above the 0.886 Retrace. We can also see that the RSI has begun to break out of its downtrend and these combinations of variables seem to point towards the TLT reversing the overall downtrend which could lead to a major move up towards the 50-61.8% retraces between $130 and $143 this would come with bond yields falling off significantly and may also be a sign of investors seeking safer investments over the coming months.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by RizeSenpai
1
Short-Term Bond Yields are Setting up for a Major CorrectionThe SHY ETF is an ETF that holds 1–3 Year US Treasury Bonds and as the yields have gone up this bond ETF has declined. However, in recent times it would seem that this ETF is now trying to confirm a Double Bottom with the test of the 21-week SMA, if it holds we could go p to about $85 which would put a lot of downwards pressure on the bond yields which should align with a decline in the US Dollar and a rise in the Australian Dollar. I suspect the move will be fast and short-lived, but dramatic all the same.
NASDAQ:SHYLong
by RizeSenpai
US 20 Year Yield: Bearish Harami at Bearish Bat PCZThere is a Bearish Harami at the HOP level of a Bearish Bat with Impulsive RSI BAMM Confirmation. Alongside that, we also have 2 Major Squareups significantly below the current level and also an unfilled gap. If these Bearish Signals at the highs are to play along, this should be the start of an even greater retrace to fill the downside gap and to complete the square ups. This would likely come with some Bearishness in DXY and upside in the TLT which may also spillover into the IEF.
TVC:US20YShort
by RizeSenpai
TLT: Double Bottom at the 0.382 Retrace with Bullish DivergenceSome weeks ago TLT was trading within a Falling Wedge and Double Bottoming at the 0.382 with Bullish Divergence on the Hourly Timeframe and from there rallied to hit its 0.618 Profit Target. Since then, it has come back down just below the level it started at but in doing so has yet again formed Bullish Divergence near the 0.382, this time on higher timeframes. If the TLT were to start bottoming here, it would potentially be the start of an even bigger double bottom than the last one and could result in TLT testing even higher upside retraces such as the 0.886-1.13 which would take it to around $100
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by RizeSenpai