Rates not acting as if a cut is coming...Let's look at rates for a bit.
Short term #yield is slowly climbing the trend line.
1 & 2 Year.
Longer term #interestrates look similar to the short term.
10 & 30 Year.
US #Dollar not as strong as bond yields but it is trading similar to them.
TVC:TNX TVC:DXY
Yields
Bearish Yields Could Send USDollar LowerUS Yields have topped back in October 2023 with sharp leg down, which is from Elliott wave perspective first leg A of a deeper A-B-C decline that can send the price back to the former wave 4 area to 3.25% - 2.5%.
At the same time, we can see USdollar Index - DXY also turning down due to a positive correlation with Yields, we just saw some divergence in 2023.
Currently we can see some recovery for the USdollar, as Yields are in a corrective rally within wave B, but as soon as wave C shows up, USdollar can be back to bearish mode.
If we respect technical analysis, Elliott wave theory and positive correlation in the markets, then Yields could send USdollar - DXY lower away from important trendline connected from the highs soon.
US10Y Touched its 1D MA50. Time to rebound?The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, which we gave a buy signal on last time (January 24, see chart below):
Yesterday it touched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line for the first time since the February 05 break-out. During the previous leg of the 1.5 year Channel Up, the 1D MA50 held all the way until the formation of the new Higher High.
As a result, we are bullish as long as it closes the 1D candles above it, with our 5.000% Target intact.
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IEF: Holding on to an Established Trendline at the 0.382 RetraceThe IEF (US 7-10 year Treasury ETF), has held on to the 0.382 Fibonacci Retrace aligning with a Long-term and Established Trend line and the 200-Month Simple Moving Average with high amounts of MACD Bullish Divergence and a move above the 0 line on the Oscillators. All of these factors point towards lower yields in the 7-10 Year Treasuries and an increase in par value on the bonds themselves. Bullish setups can also be found in other duration ETFs such as the TLT and SHY representing the 20 Year and the 1-3 Year Bonds.
I suspect that all this Bullishness on Bonds will come with the Uninverting of the Yield Curve, which may align in commodities blasting off much higher in the short term, but in the long term could result in the resetting of the Bullish Cycle in Equities and Commodities alike.
TLT: Piercing Line on the Quarterly Chart Signaling Lower YieldsTLT (The 20-Year US Treasury Bond ETF) has recently completed the measured move of the Ascending Broadening Wedge Breakdown and has now confirmed a Piercing Line on the 3-Month Chart while closing above the 0.886 Retrace. We can also see that the RSI has begun to break out of its downtrend and these combinations of variables seem to point towards the TLT reversing the overall downtrend which could lead to a major move up towards the 50-61.8% retraces between $130 and $143 this would come with bond yields falling off significantly and may also be a sign of investors seeking safer investments over the coming months.
Short-Term Bond Yields are Setting up for a Major CorrectionThe SHY ETF is an ETF that holds 1–3 Year US Treasury Bonds and as the yields have gone up this bond ETF has declined. However, in recent times it would seem that this ETF is now trying to confirm a Double Bottom with the test of the 21-week SMA, if it holds we could go p to about $85 which would put a lot of downwards pressure on the bond yields which should align with a decline in the US Dollar and a rise in the Australian Dollar. I suspect the move will be fast and short-lived, but dramatic all the same.
#SA10YGOVYIELDS looking to start a move back to top of range?The South African 10 year bond yield has found support off the intersection of the 200dma and the previous change of polarity point between 9.55%-9.65%. Momentum seems to be shifting up which could see us move back to the top of the range at around 11.16%.
US 20 Year Yield: Bearish Harami at Bearish Bat PCZThere is a Bearish Harami at the HOP level of a Bearish Bat with Impulsive RSI BAMM Confirmation. Alongside that, we also have 2 Major Squareups significantly below the current level and also an unfilled gap. If these Bearish Signals at the highs are to play along, this should be the start of an even greater retrace to fill the downside gap and to complete the square ups. This would likely come with some Bearishness in DXY and upside in the TLT which may also spillover into the IEF.
TLT: Double Bottom at the 0.382 Retrace with Bullish DivergenceSome weeks ago TLT was trading within a Falling Wedge and Double Bottoming at the 0.382 with Bullish Divergence on the Hourly Timeframe and from there rallied to hit its 0.618 Profit Target. Since then, it has come back down just below the level it started at but in doing so has yet again formed Bullish Divergence near the 0.382, this time on higher timeframes. If the TLT were to start bottoming here, it would potentially be the start of an even bigger double bottom than the last one and could result in TLT testing even higher upside retraces such as the 0.886-1.13 which would take it to around $100
CRE & Small Banks coincide with each otherSmall banks account for about 70% of #commercialrealestate.
Small #banks are considered those with assets less than $10B.
We've been bearish CRE for a long time. We believe that this sector will likely not get better anytime soon.
#interestrates are still holding fairly strong. They are at banking crisis levels or higher.
TVC:TNX
Treasury Yields look ripe for further movesCurrent state of the short and long term #Yield.
The 1Yr is underperforming against the 2Yr yield. However, it looks like it wants to push higher.
10Yr vs 30Yr
The 10Yr is performing lil better than 30 but.......
The 30Yr has a BULLISH short term crossing over longer term moving avg, RSI also looks strong. IMO yields are looking good. Seems like there is still treasury selling pressure.
/ZB (US 30-Year Futures): Holding onto Trend, Targeting 1.618The 30-Year Bond seems to have found support at the 89 EMA aligning with a trend line, it seems that demand for this maturity will pick up soon which would result in the 30-year Yield dropping to around 3.5%. I do however think this drop in yields will be temporary, but the move down in 30 year yields and the move up in the 30-Year Bond Futures will likely be parabolic until the 1.618 resistance is reached.
Looking at short & long term yieldsGood Morning Update
Looking at the short & long term Bond Yields.
Short term (3M & 6M) yields are trading above bank crisis levels.
The 1Yr & 2Yr #yield are underneath the crisis levels.
The 10Yr is currently at those levels & 30Yr is above said levels.
Makes one think....... How much longer can #banks support these levels?
CRYPTOCAP:BTC AMEX:GLD AMEX:SLV
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Digesting longer term data = 10 & 30Yr #yield.
Higher lows
Bullish moving average crossover > circles
Moving avgs trending higher
Forming small uptrend
2nd pic = WEEKLY
Back above previous uptrend
Trading under moving avgs
TVC:TNX #Gold #silver #BTC
SLV: Bullish Head and Shoulders and Piercing Line on the WeeklyThere is a Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders with a Piercing Line on the potential Right Shoulder visible on the weekly timeframe above the 800-week EMA who's measured move would take it all the way up to the 1.272 Fibonacci Extension
if the pattern plays out.
The move up in SLV should be supported by the rising of the TLT and Falling of Yields (if that trend should continue).
I will be getting the ITM Calls, expiring April 19th.
Raising EURUSD Profit Target to $1.114 due to a Bullish CypherDue to the apparent formation of a Bullish Cypher on the Daily, combined with the Bullish Push as confirmation on the RSI, and the strong push push in price action above the 200-day SMA, I will be raising my profit target for the EURUSD to the 100% retrace up at $1.114 as the 100% retrace would be the standard target for a Cypher and the TLT has outperformed which is usually a signal for psoitive price action in the EURUSD.
TLT: Falling Wedge Double Bottom at .382 with Bullish DivergenceThe TLT looks like it's trying to form a Double Bottom at the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement, it is also Bullishly Diverging at this level, if it holds up I think it could go up to as high as $96 near the 200-period Simple Moving Average which would also fill the gap. From there I'd think it could continue back down.
I will be selling weekly puts around the lower 90 strike and buying weekly calls at the same level.
Raising Bullish target on the EURUSD to the 78.6% RetraceLast week I put out this TLT trade setup that showcased a Falling Wedge with Bullish Divergence at the 0.382 retrace which targeted an upside move in the TLT that would recover at least 50% of the high:
In the time since this setup first formed the TLT has nearly reached that minimum target. In addition to the TLT, I expected the EURUSD to follow a similar path, however, the EURO has remained mostly flat and has not moved up with the TLT which is kind of unusual.
It is possible that the EURUSD pair is waiting for the FOMC but in the meantime the Bullish patterns on the EURUSD have gone from just being an intraday pattern to now being a daily pattern, with the Daily candle now printing a Bullish Hammer above the 200-day SMA while also slightly diverging on the RSI. Due to this improvement on the higher timeframe, I have decided to raise the Bullish price target to the 0.786 retrace, aligning with $1.107 as it catches up with the falling US Bond Yields.
EURUSD: Bullish Gartley at an 800-EMA Trading in a Falling WedgeEURUSD is trading within a Falling Wedge with MACD Bullish Divergence at the 800-period EMA. All of this aligns with the PCZ of a Bullish Deep Gartley that has developed on the 1-Hour timeframe. If this support zone holds I think EURUSD will attempt a Bullish breakout that will target the 50-61.8% retraces above which may align with short term upside I'm expecting in the TLT.
$VIX within range & bringing this chart back up againWe saw #yield, US #Dollar, & #oil looking decent & trading with some strength. #stocks are a tad weak but so is $VIX.
Want to show this chart again.
CBOE:VIX can trade in the ORANGE support vicinity for 2 years. Every so often it'll have a fast and furious rally.
Seldom does it hit YELLOW support area but when it does, it usually signifies that upcoming spike we just spoke about.
$DXY pumping as are Yields and OilPretty good calls on the following:
(see our profile for more info)
The US #Dollar maintains its upward trend.
The 10yr #yield is also looking pretty decent.
The 30 Yr bottomed before the others and has been leading #interestrates.
#OIL broke downtrend and has been looking better.
All time highs : MEMBERS DAILY ANALYSIS Jan 21 2024 The S&P500 broke out this week to new all time highs.
Finally playing catchup the nasdaq indices.
Semi-conductors continue to be the bright spot in the market.
10 year yield confims breakout.
many S&P sectors closed negative on the week despite the marekt making ATH's