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Yields

Higher Yields May Cause Bigger Correction On DXYHigher yields may cause a bigger correction on DXY, as yields can be still looking for wave 5 by Elliott wave theory. Yields higher, USD strong, stocks down. Risk-off flows may not be over just yet if yields are in fifth wave. However, when yields will make new high and then top after 5th, thats when DXY can complete B/2 rally, with a lower high, when focus will shift away from US to other CB. However, of course, wave 4 on yields can get more complex if current trendline support is broken, so wave B/2 on DXY may take more time to unfold. Grega
TVC:US10Y
by ew-forecast
1
Seeking a bearish breakout on AUD/USDThe Australian economy has had a few of soft data points this week which, whilst not detrimental to the economy, will be duly noted by the RBA as they seek to cool the economy without completely breaking it (and ponder a pause in rate hikes). Yesterday we found inflation was 'only' 7.4% y/y, compared to 8.1% expected and 8.4% prior - and GDP was soft at 0.5% q/q. Well today things got a little more interesting with housing and credit data. The S&P Global Ratings Agency noted in a report that mortgage arrears were on the rise, whilst dwelling approvals nosedived nearly 30% in January alone. Cleary, RBA's aggressive hiking path is beginning to bite, and we also need to consider that there's a large lag between hikes and such data points (so expect further weakness to come). And that matters, as it could force the RBA to stop hiking sooner than they currently expect, and that is likely to weigh further on AUD/USD whilst some Fed members continue to speak of interest rates being over 5.4% and ponder between a 25 or 50bp hike in March. AUD/USD daily chart: We can see on the 4-hour chart that the AU-US 2-year yield differential is pointing sharply lower as US yields continue to outpace their Australian counterparts. Prices are consolidating within a potential bear flag or retracement channel, whilst the RSI (14) remains below 50 and shows the potential for a lower high. If prices drift higher, bears could seek bearing setups below the 0.68200 (last week's VPOC) or the daily pivot point. Otherwise, they could wait for a bearish break of the bear-flag and assumes bearish continuation towards 0.6650 and 0.6570.
Short
by CityIndex
Inflation is plateauing and likely to end flat in 2023Inflation is plateauing and likely to end flat in 2023, so what will that impact the markets? Though inflation peaked at 9% last year and has been declining to 6.4%, CPI seems to be plateauing and may close flat in 2023, but this is not good news at all. Why? Because the Fed wanted to see the CPI or inflation coming down to 2% in a sustained manner. Studying across the 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-years yield, we are seeing all the 4 yields almost breaking above its October 2022 all time high again. As long as the inflation remain flat at this current level, the Fed will continue its moderate rate hikes. Therefore, we are expecting more volatility ahead with a flat inflation number. This is definitely bad news for the stock investors, but not for the traders. Since 3rd week of 2022, I have exited from my long-term hold for the U.S. stock markets to trading the U.S. indices with much anticipated inflation and volatility. Also, trading into the Micro Yield Futures. Since it is on an uptrend, I prefer to focus mainly on buy on dip strategy. CME Micro Years Yield Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by konhow
Is Gold telling us something?Gold is forming a picture perfect Bear Flag. If this pattern breaks and triggers we have 2 downside targets. The importance of analyzing this pattern is Gold encompasses much of the macro landscape in its price action. If Gold is acting bearishly based off this pattern it could be foreshadowing a dollar strengthening. It could also foreshadow perhaps a good jobloss claims number tomorrow that could force yields higher. Whatever the catalyst may be, based off of this pattern were likely to see some additional weakness in the near term unless we break out of the bear flag upper range.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Trading-Capital
Nvidia Sell SignalNvidia just put in a reversal signal on the Daily chart as it hit major resistance. This semiconductor has been a powerhouse mover and has single handily been lifting the Semis sector higher. Now that this stock may show some near term sell pressure we could see the sector as a whole pullback. The only thing that Im being mindful of when it comes to NVDA is that it has yet to report earnings. As a technical analyst I'm a bit dissatisfied that Nvidia came so close to filling the technical daily gap at 230.46 but never managed to fill it which leads me to think there may be a possibility it has 1 more gasp at a rally to fill the gap before rolling over. None the less distribution is being observed in a time when yields and dollar may be spiking again.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Trading-Capital
3
Copper & Stocks DivergingCopper and S&P500 is making a divergence. Could this mean that we are going to be seeing weakness creep into the real estate market with Lumber and copper falling recently? SPY has tracked copper closely with the rise & fall in inflation and yields. The most used commodity in the world should provide pivotal insights into the next turn in the market. If we do enter disinflation/deflation that's typically not positive for equties despite the "soft landing" narrative.
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by Trading-Capital