With inflation finally cooling and the Fed signaling rate cuts, it seems relief is on the horizon—until you look at the job market. As recession risks grow and Treasury yields falter, a steepening yield curve presents a compelling opportunity. Positioning in the yield curve ahead of the FOMC meeting offers a more measured way to navigate the uncertainty. ...
10Y/2Y and 10Y/3M Yield Spread One chart to rule them all. I have combined the 10Y/2Y Yield Spread (purple line) and the 10Y/3M Yield Spread (blue line) onto one chart. You can get updated readings on it at anytime on my TradingView page (link in bio above) I have measured the historic timeframe from un-inversion to recession for both datasets. Un-inversion...
Last week was pandemonium for US Equities, Japanese Equities, Foreign Exchange markets, Cryptocurrency markets, and Bond markets. Yet, for those positioned for the normalization of the yield curve, results are apparent as the curve has officially normalized into positive territory with a sharp recovery on Friday which continued into Monday. The non-farm payroll...
As the tides of economic fortune ebb and flow, a spectre of recession looms over the horizon, whispering in the rustling of Treasury yields and the shifting sands of macroeconomic indicators. Recent economic data has painted a complex tableau of financial uncertainty. From declining PMI figures to a palpable deceleration in GDP growth, the economic forecast has...
Since early 2021, the 10Y-02Y yield spread (an early bellwether indicator for a coming US recession) has undergone a long and deep inversion. Fears of economic instability as 10 year yields sharply rose in fall of 2023 eventually subsided as stocks rallied to close the year. However, the year also ends with a sign that another sharp increase in the yield spread...
2 year, 5 year, 10 year and 30 year yield are all showing a similar characteristic: · Low established in 2020 · Major support trend started forming since then · Seem to have completed its retracement with a double-bottom · Resuming on its major support trend · Target to break above its recent all-time high set on Oct...
What is moving this week? Our weekly eyeball into the different markets. Interest rates likely to be breaking its all time high again, get ready for another volatile month ahead. Difference between yield and interest rate: Borrowers take reference from interest rates and lenders take reference on the yield. Interest rates and yield moves in tandem. Minimum...
This week, we thought it will be interesting to review the trade from last week given the reaction post-FOMC, as well as discuss an alternative way to set up this trade. Firstly, let’s review the post-FOMC/employment data reaction. - Nonfarm Payrolls surprised to the upside, as over half a million jobs were added way above the estimates of a sub 200K...
Those who have been reading our past 2 ideas will know we’ve been harping on and on about expected rate path and policy timelines. Why the recent obsession you ask? Because we think we’re on the cusp of major turning points. So, for the third time, let’s look at the market’s expected policy rate path. With FOMC coming up this week, we are expecting a 25bps...
Looking at the Inverted Yield Curve Chart s of the U.S. 10yr Treasury vs. U.S. 3mo Treasury (US10Y - US03M), along with the U.S. 10yr Treasury vs. U.S. 2yr Treasury (US10Y - US02Y) — are yields signaling a topping process? Or, should we even higher yields into 23'? 4-Hour Inverted Yield Curve Chart 📊 Top Chart: US10Y - US03M Bottom Chart: US10Y - US02Y...
Buy GBP/USD @ cmp of 1.1763 target 1.20-1.21 stops below 1.16 Reason: The UK-US 02year bond yield spread has jumped by 100 basis points since Aug. 8, while GBPUSD has continued to fall. In my opinion, Pound will catch up with the recent bounce in the yield spread. Besides, there is chatter than UK will have to raise interest rates above 4% to combat inflation....
This is what happened to the US Treasury 10 year - 2 year spread the last time the Federal Reserve embarked on a tightening cycle. My prediction: as before, as soon as the 10 year and 2 year yields touch (the spread approaches 0%), the Fed will be forced to reverse course and begin lowering rates in order to avert a yield curve inversion and the potential for a...
Fundamentals : See previous updates.... Technicals : The price moved from bottom to top of the band in what appears to also be a break out and a retracement to support. On top of this, we can see that a chart of US bond yields, which predict the direction of the USD, remain supportive of the USD going forward. Therefore, buying dips on USDJPY. For several other...
Usually, such a significant impulse reversal is never a one-day move. It seems the short end gets much flatter. The yield Curve volatility does not end up being risk-friendly
Hello Traders, We approach a significant level also having a divergence with the FTSE100 and the GB US yield spread. Level labelled. Have a great week! Vitez
Hello Traders! I've opened a short last week for the dollar against the Swiss frank, based on the bond yield divergence risk tone and technicals. I moved my initial stop to break even, and today I opened another position for the last trend line break. I also added new profit targets labelled with dark green, to increase my chance for a hit. I will do the same...