DOW 4HOUR: we can sell now as predict 3days ago dow touch fibo 61 it is so clear dow dax and many index have sell now but daily chart trend can go to 35000
if you have old sell you must close above 31250
good luck
Ym
Dow 4 hour : 3 best place for sell after pinbar comesas predict 1week ago in low ,dow reach 31500 area ,,, in next 3 month it can reach 35000
alert: BE CAREFUL FROM SELL, DOW CAN FLYUP WILD AND DONT ALLOW YOU CLOSE SELL SO PUT SL
if you have old sells close or hedge them above 31000
wish you win
Custom Cycle Patterns Update - Christmas Rally Setup 2022It appears I'm getting a few people that are following my Cycle Pattern research - love it.
For those of you that have not been following my research, here is a short history.
Many years ago I started researching cycles, Fibonacci, Gann, and other advanced techniques. I try to deliver all of my advanced research to those that are interested in what I'm doing.
Ultimately, I hope to unlock a few secrets related to how I see price action and attempt to better understand how cycles, patterns, frequency, amplitude, and shifting cycle phases really work in price cycles. If I'm able to do this, I should be able to accurately predict when and how markets will shift into different phases and how to trade them more efficiently.
Much of my research is now dedicated to understanding global market dynamics (the world market trends and what comes next). I have to say I've been quite accurate in my predictions over the past few years - but predicting the future is now something I can do accurately or easily. Yet, I continue to try to provide valuable information for everyone interested.
I warned of a market top setting up in July/Aug 2021 and warned everyone to start protecting trades and pulling profits as the US markets continued to peak.
I warned of a 3 to 5 wave correction taking place (a wave 4 downtrend) before a new Wave 5 (uptrend) was likely to potentially setup a Christmas Rally in 2022.
I've been actively suggesting the US markets were bottoming over the past 60+ days as long as certain support levels held up.
I believe Gold and Silver will start a very strong price rally once the US Dollar shifts into a sideways/downward slide (which may be happening right now).
I also believe foreign market ETFs & Technology shares will be the HOT TRIGGERS over the next 6+ months as investors attempt to buy deeply undervalued stocks.
What this means is we are going to go through a bit of a SHIFT in how capital is deployed and where to find opportunities over the next 6~12+ months.
But it also means traders/investors still need to be cautious. This is not an easy market to trade - and you should not start loading up on ETFs/Tech until we know the bottom is set.
Here is the complete Cycle Pattern for all of October and early November:
10-1: Consolidation
10-2: Temporary Bottom
10-3: Gap Reversal
10-4: Breakdown
10-5: BreakAway
10-6: Rally
10-7: Carryover
10-8: Bottom
10-9: N/A
10-10: N/A
10-11: Inside/Breakaway
10-12: Harami/Inside
10-13: CRUSH
10-14: Gap Potential
10-15: Gap Reversal
10-16: Breakdown
10-17: BreakAway
10-18: Carryover
10-19: Temporary Bottom
10-20: Top/Reisistance
10-21: Consolidation
10-22: CRUSH
10-23: Gap Potential
10-24: Gap22 Potential
10-25: N/A
10-26: Breakdown
10-27: Harami/Inside
10-28: CRUSH
10-29: GAP Potential
10-30: Top/Resistance
10-31: Consolidation
11-1: Bottom
11-2: UP/Down/Up
11-3: Base/Rally
11-4: BreakAway
11-5: Carryover
Remember, CRUSH patterns are BIG TRENDING BARS. They can be UP or DOWN, but generally, they tend to be downward bars (about 65% of the time).
Take a look at the end of October and early November.. It looks like a BOTTOM/BASE is going to setup in early November. Can you say "Christmas Rally"? It looks like we may see a shift in the US Fed attempting to make sure they don't break assets over the next few months.
Follow my research. This is going to be a great opportunity for the right trades/investments. Watch GOLD & SILVER. I believe these assets will move strongly higher over the next 12+ months.
Drop to station 29300We see the fake break in dji ... and it is expected that the next support will drop
A little Elliot Wave Fun - are you ready for what's next?If you are like me, thinking the US markets will act as a safe haven for global capital, then you should clearly see the upside potential if these recent lows hold.
If not, then you are seeing the downside risks as more likely - and will want to understand the price structure in place that may prompt some consolidation.
IMO, we are amid a Wave 4 correction.
Any Wave 4 correction MAY turn into a new price wave structure (ending an ABC wave and starting a new price wave). So, the reality of the current global market trend is...
If my analysis is correct, we must rally to new all-time highs. For this to happen, a broad shift in investor sentiment needs to take place.
If my analysis is incorrect (related to this being a bottom for the US markets, then we would be anticipating a broad global crisis event related to debts/inflation and other emergencies.
I think the US Fed will move to a more moderate rate adjustment schedule while the global central banks deal with credit/debt issues. It does no good to crash the markets to stop inflation.
Just like in the 70s & 80s, inflation will weaken as rates stay elevated. It is just a matter of TIME and POLICY.
Capital WILL seek out the best investment vehicle in the future. I believe that will be the USD and US ASSETS.
What are your thoughts?
CPI/JOBS Blow a Hole in support - CRUSHED? Cycle Pattern UpdateIf you were watching the markets this morning or were caught unprepared for the huge CPI numbers (which lag), you were probably sweating bullets watching the NQ fall 400+ points in just a few minutes.
These reactionary types of price swings can be very dangerous for some traders - especially right now.
But, I want to alert you that the NQ has rallied nearly 200+ points off the morning lows and may turn positive by the close of trading on Friday.
Do any of you remember my Cycle Patterns? Take a look at 10-13 (CRUSH).
10-10: N/A
10-11: Inside/Breakaway
10-12: Harami/Inside
10-13: CRUSH
10-14: Gap Potential
I think the Gap Potential for tomorrow may reflect an upward price gap and may surprise traders if this support level holds.
Next week looks very interesting...
10-17: BreakAway
10-18: Carryover
10-19: Temporary Bottom
10-20: Top/Reisistance
10-21: Consolidation
I see quite a bit of volatility over the next 10+ days while Earnings and the Fed play central roles in driving price trends.
I'm still cautiously optimistic that we'll transition into a Christmas Rally phase throughout most of October. Watch for the US markets to try to setup a base/bottom over the next 4+ weeks.
If the market recovers from this morning's lows - lookout. That should be a fairly clear sign the US markets are defending this support level with a vengeance. Damn the Fed!
Elliott Wave View: Dips in Dow Futures (YM) Might Find SupportDow Futures (YM) shows incomplete bearish sequence from 1.5.2022 high favoring further downside. The decline from 8.16.2022 high is in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 8.16.2022 high, wave A ended at 30975 and rally in wave B ended at 32789. Index extends lower again wave C towards 28635 which completed wave (W). Rally in wave (X) is currently in progress as a zigzag structure as the 60 minutes chart below shows.
Up from wave (W), wave ((i)) ended at 28974 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 28772. Index extends higher in wave ((iii)) towards 30399, and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 29933. Final leg higher wave ((v)) ended at 30513 which completed wave A. Wave B pullback is in play to correct cycle from 10.3.2022 low before the rally resumes. As far as pivot at 28646 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for 1 more push higher to end wave C of (X). Afterwards, Index should resume the decline lower in wave (Y). Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension from 1.5.2022 high at 22560 – 27022.
Cycle Patterns Seem To Dominate Predictive TrendsI find it very interesting that my Cycle Patterns predicted the following more than 2 years in advance of this move..
9-26: Breakdown
9-27: Harami/Inside
9-28: CRUSH
9-29: GAP Potential
9-30: Top Resistance
10-1: Consolidation
10-2: Temporary Bottom
10-3: Gap Reversal
10-4: Breakdown
10-5: BreakAway
10-6: Rally
10-7: Carryover
10-8: Bottom
10-9: N/A
10-10: N/A
Given what we saw with the SPY price over the past few weeks, could you have identified the Consolidation, Temp Bottom, Gap Reversal, Breakaway, Rally phases this week after everyone else seemed uber-bearish?
I know they are not perfect yet, but I'm impressed that these cycle patterns seem to be 60% to 70% accurate within a 48~72 hour window. If they continue to perform well, we should be looking at a MELT UP over the next 10+ days that may start a new Christmas Rally phase.
Follow my research.
New SPY Cycle Patterns for next weekHere are the new cycle patterns for next week and beyond.
Let's see how the market react to the Excess Phase Peak Phase 3 support (June lows). Failure of this pattern at this point could prompt a big move higher.
9-23: Momentum Rally
9-24: Rare – Major Reversal
9-25: N/A
9-26: Breakdown
9-27: Harami/Inside
9-28: CRUSH
9-29: GAP Potential
9-30: Top Resistance
10-1: Consolidation
10-2: Temporary Bottom
10-3: Gap Reversal
10-4: Breakdown
10-5: BreakAway
10-6: Rally
10-7: Carryover
10-8: Bottom
10-9: N/A
10-10: N/A
10-11: Inside/Breakaway
10-12: Harami/Inside
10-13: CRUSH
10-14: Gap Potential
10-15: Gap Reversal
10-16: Breakdown
10-17: BreakAway
10-18: Carryover
10-19: Temporary Bottom
10-20: Top/Reisistance
10-21: Consolidation
10-22: CRUSH
10-23: Gap Potential
10-24: Gap22 Potential
10-25: N/A
10-26: Breakdown
10-27: Harami/Inside
10-28: CRUSH
10-29: GAP Potential
10-30: Top/Resistance
10-31: Consolidation
11-1: Bottom
11-2: UP/Down/Up
11-3: Base/Rally
11-4: BreakAway
11-5: Carryover
WARNING:
There are TWO warning signals on the Short-Term cycle modeling system we need to pay attention to. These may become bigger issues for traders if they compound with other factors.
9-1-2022: TOP (Potential Price PEAK)
9-4-2022: Temporary Bottom10
9-10-2022: Rally11 (Bullish)
9-13-2022: TOP (Potential Price PEAK)
9-23-2022: Momentum Rally
As I stated earlier, I see the easiest path for the US markets to take as staying within one of the THREE Pennant/Flag patterns I highlighted in the charts (above). This means we are likely to see a moderate Christmas rally phase which may trend more sideways than upward.
Last week’s major cycle research trigger:
My cycle research suggests the following is HIGHLY LIKELY.
_ 1999 : Major Top ( Start of DOT COM event )
_ 2003 : Bottom/Disruption
_ 2006.3 : Peak/Top/Extended Rally Phase ( Start of GFC event )
_ 2010 : Major Bottom
_ 2013.7 : Strengthening Price Trends
_ 2019.5 : Disruption ( COVID )
_ 2022.5 : Peak/Top/Extended Rally Phase ( ?? Crisis Event: Perfect Storm Phase 1 )
_ 2027 : Peak/Top/Extended Rally Phase ( ?? Crisis Event: Perfect Storm Phase 2 )
There will be some great opportunities for 3% to 5%+ swings in the markets going forward – but I don’t see many great opportunities to get involved in any new long-term positions yet. Stay very liquid at the moment (mostly in CASH). We’ll see how things progress towards the holidays and into early 2023.
Current SPY low is < 1% from the June 2022 lows - Double Bottom?My cycle patterns suggest a rally phase is likely over the next 7+ trading days - but, the trend is very bearish today. It is almost as if the markets are flushing out stop levels - actively seeking a support level near the June 2022 lows.
It will be very interesting to see how the market ends today. If we see a big recovery rally into the close, it may support my cycle patterns predictions of a rally phase leading to what may be a new support level near $365. If it continues to sell downward, then I will be forced to admit my cycle patterns FAILED today. That means I'll have to spend hours studying why this failed and if I can make any improvements to my cycle pattern qualifiers/code.
I will state that my predictive modeling suggests a rally phase is still likely. So, we'll see what happens as the day progresses.
Follow my research.
Big Cycle Pattern Day - Momentum Rally DayThat means the SPY should find immediate support (after it appears a big GAP downward reflecting Europe's recession concerns).
Here's a little hint: Bitcoin will likely rally along with the SPY/ES and others over the next 7+ days.
The strength of the US economy/US Dollar may drive global investors into US assets and safe-havens throughout the end of 2022 - possibly setting up a very strong Christmas Rally phase.
Remember, this was all predicted over 3 years ago by a major cycle event. I have every day mapped out all the way past 2026 and beyond.
Next week should be very exciting. The potential for the markets to rally higher is high. There is a CRUSH day (9-28) that may represent some type of corrective price event, but other than that one day, the momentum appears to be to the upside.
Hope you guys are enjoying these? Please comment or let me know if you find these valuable in any way/form?
Follow my research...
Cycle Pattern - Tomorrows Momentum Rally PatternIs it really that hard to believe that tomorrow could shift gears and move into a moderate momentum rally after the Fed raised rates 75bp?
What I find incredibly interesting about these patterns is how they can paint a very clear picture of the opportunities and shifting market trends.
Each day is clearly defined (except for the N/A days). Each day paints a picture of what to expect and potential trend.
Reading all this data as a story or narrative provides us a very innovative way to address allocation levels, risks/opportunities and trends.
Given the market volatility and trending, I would still suggest addressing any potential momentum rally with some caution. Trade smaller amounts and look to pull away from position before the close of trading on Friday.
Follow my research.
SPY, Broad Markets & the FOMC PlaybookFOMC @ 2:00 PM EST reaction will see one of 3 Events:
1. 75BPS is priced - leading to a move higher to recent intra-week Highs.
2. 75BPS is priced - leading to a tighter range into Powell.
3. 100 - 125 BPS is not priced - leading to a breakdown and a VIXplosion to 31
and VIX Curve inversion.
Powell's conviction @ 2:30 PM EST sets the Equity Complex in further motion of
which there are 3 events:
1. Powell indicates the FED is making progress but needs to see further Data and
intends to remain vigilant.
2. Powell indicates the FED sees further Risks to Inflation and needs to bring
Fed Funds aggressively towards the Inflation Rate.
3. Powell indicates the FOMC's trend toward Higher Rates will need to remain
consistent in order to maintain stability with November an important
timeframe for the FED.
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Nature abhors a Vacuum.
As does the US Dollar - Any spike above 110 leads to 111.71s.
Dot Plots, Terminal Rates... will all see an adjustment, one that has made
higher velocity movements recently.
The Yield Curve - with 1's over 4%, 2's approaching 4%, and a new Inversion
dipping into prior lows and exceeding them @ - 0.487% - doubling the
prior 2 most recent curve inversions.
The Market Signals are quite clear - indicating the FED will raise 100BPS as
a flood of Global Central Banks Rate decisions are set in motion this week
and next.
Competition is building among them. Powell will not be sanguine.
That will not happen today IMHO.
Powell will be direct in the extreme once again as the FED has no
intention of back off until 8 months after their final rate increase.
This is the history of Interest Rate Cycles - this one will be shorter
and far more volatile than prior cycles.
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Yes, we are at the lower end of the Risk Range, but nowhere near the lows.
It is important to remember, RIsk compounds from elevated levels - which
provides vacuous sucking sounds time and again.
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Time favors the Spread, if you are using leverage, the October Monthly Expiry is
the safer Trade into an October Straddle - direction neutrality the higher probability
of profit.
The tightest spread is preferred as the IV is elevated, should it come down, close the
position as IV can move in either direction today, it is VIX Settlement.
Lack of volatility - is the lowest probability providing the performance.
The key to success is to close the position within a few days.
I am taking ATH only.
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Trade Safe & Good Luck.
SPY / ES / SPX - Market Structure & PostureWeekly Engulfing Charts are clearly not a preferred look for the Buy Side and those
riding the Bullish Tilt-O-Whirl - Bodies are being flung everywhere.
The Dollar is doing its thing, it ran to our PO at 107.65 with a 107.67 print and
reversed yet again. it's been a pattern as the EuroDollar continues the ties that
bind, Dollar shortages create demand until the Dollar is dethroned.
Sell Side has lifted the CBOE P/C to (.82).
Please note after the brutal June 17th 4X - we reversed very hard the following Monday.
For Roll out the Options Curve - it's muted Frankly. Traders took their Bags, packed up, and headed
off to parts unknown.
That said... Bulls may have a chance to hold and to have... "may" - as horrific as it looks,
Wall Street may surprise with a short Countertrend to shake off the Late chasers. Again it
is "may" not will - It is, however, exactly what I would do.
There simply isn't enough Capital to transfer in the leveraged deep end of the Pool. It
seems there is another attraction elsewhere for now - unaware of any real contests outside
of the Lounge, but the lizards are somewhere, for certain.
Sentiment everywhere is pure doom, gloom, and kaboom. Understandably so after Teton
Jerry and CPI - it's been a brutal month for Buyers. Wrecked and Raked at every turn.
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Here's O/I for SPY into Month End by Expiry:
SPY 9/19 Exp - Very Low Participation
SPY 9/21 Exp - Moderate Participation (FOMC) / VIX Roll/Settle Complete 4 PN EST on 9/20)
SPY 9/23 Exp - 360 Participation @ ~70K
SPY 9/26 Exp - Very Low Participation
SPY 9/28 Exp - Very Low Participation
SPY 9/30 Exp - Very High Participation @ 390 @ 102K / 385 @ 134K / 370 @ 143K / 350 @ 120K
October Monthly Expiry needs those traveling to parts unknown, requiring some time to re-engage.
It is important to note the early & largest entry for October was 372 Puts.
On to the Chart
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Charts are simple messy, mixed, and have the appearance of that "double bottom" in trade
and quickly... which may be why it doesn't happen.
The KEY Line in the Sand is not the Lows, it is the dip in below 3588 - that is a number
so please commit it to memory, breaking it.. assure a return to far lower lows, but
over time.
We completed Day 21 of this downside Crush from Wall Street. The Financial Media has been
abuzz about multiple contractions after spending weeks supporting "Pivot Chatter" and, surprise,
"Multiple Expansion" - remarkable anyone listens.
For "Time" we need a breather... soon. it's important to remember the ES defended the
FHWB - all-time highs to lows @ 3849.50 @ 3853.
Structurally - it looks bleak. I mean look at it... it's terrible. Longer Term, even worse - but
that is for later, for now, it's interesting... and it is quite possible we get a larger counter-trend
Squeeze developing this week. A very nasty one... quite possibly.
RSI STO supports its development near term. Best to be agile and not be caught offsides, as
fear is grinding lower - currently @ 36 as the September Vix settles on - Powell the 21st.
Jerry's arrival Wednesday with 75BPS most likely, as 100BPS I was looking for may be split to
the November FOMC as it appears to be 75BPS as well. The Ministry of Financial Truth was
out early in the week touting100 only to hear JPM quash that with "The Fed isn't going to raise
100BPS, but 75BPS".
We will see, I'm non-plussed with Forward Rates trading @ 4.5%. Yields have gone vertical... never
a good thing, not ever. Institutions apparently now consider the 1 & 2-year pristine collateral.
I had to laugh when Bloomberg touted - "Yes but the 30/90 Day are not inverted~!" Oh, Hooray
for this - perhaps it's the fact Yellen curtailed issuance to non-existent and the Market for the
very short end of the Curve... is not trading any real liquidity.
Something is going to give - but in a most unusual way. Yes, valuations will be corrected further.
Of this there is little doubt, it's how it occurs that traders seize.
Wall Street enjoys a nice lift ahead of EPS Season... with Powell stuck squarely in the middle.
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For All Of You Following My Cycle Patterns - Here's Next Week.As you know, I have these setup 4+ years out into the future and continue to identify new RARE and UNIQUE patterns as time allows. I'm even up to 5~6 bar setups in some of them.
Yet, next week shows a very interesting set of Cycle Patterns...
9-19: Inside/BreakAway
9-20: BreakAway
9-21: Carryover (Possible Reversion)
9-22: Inside/BreakAway
9-23: Momentum Rally
*9-24: RARE - Major Reversal
*9-25: N/A
9-26: Breakdown201
9-27: Harami/Inside
9-28: CRUSH (*Bearish)
* = weekend
I'm reading this as a very important and volatile week will follow the Fed rate decision. The US/Global markets may move into FULL CAPITULATION after the Fed next week.
But, The RARE - Major Reversal pattern and the Momentum Rally pattern suggest the end of the week may see some type of "reversion" of the previous downward trend.
The following week (early) - we move towards a CRUSH pattern (9-28). Those tend to be very strongly BEARISH.
Stay protected. Follow my research and learn how I can help you navigate these incredible price swings.
We may see a little support in the markets tomorrow, but it looks like traders are already anticipating a 75pb rate increase and selling ahead of the Fed decision.
Today is a N/A Day (No cycle pattern) - what to expect...Today will likely be a carryover of yesterday, setting up tomorrow's TOP pattern. Because of this, I expect a bit of a rally phase today (rebounding off the lower support channel) and possibly attempting to move above 395 if there is substantial buying activity.
Yes, the Fed decision is near, but traders are still using the US equities market as a hedge against foreign market risks because of the stronger US Dollar.
Gold and Silver will likely setup another retest of recent support.
The markets are shifting and we could see a big move next week with the Fed decision.
Right now, I see the markets struggling to find support and attempting to hold above the Flag/Pennant lower channel.
Crude oil is lower - suggesting the global economic demand for oil is weakening.
Stay cautious. Follow my research. These cycle patterns are really incredible in how they predict days/weeks in advance.
Today is a Reversal/Reversion/Rally Day. Ready for it?My cycle patterns suggest today is a Reversion/Reversal/Rally day. I know it may seem strange to think that the US market may rally today after the CPI/PPI inflation data and the pending Fed rate increase - but it is what the cycle patterns say it is.
Remember, these patterns originate from a date 3+ years ago and just tell me what to expect from price on certain days. I read them like words making up a sentence. Multiple bullish cycle patterns suggest a broadly bullish price trend. Multiple bearish cycle patterns suggest a broadly bearish price trend.
Today is a Reversal/Reversion/Rally day. If we see a big rally in the SPY today - I will be content that my cycle patterns are really nailing these daily market cycles/setups.
I mean - where else can you know what is likely to happen weeks or months in advance of price actually DOING IT?
Follow my research.
Elliott Wave View: Near Term Rally in Dow Futures (YM) Should FaShort term Elliott Wave view on Dow Futures suggests the decline from 8.17.2022 high is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from 8.17.2022 high, wave A ended at 31221. Wave B corrective rally ended at 32791 with internal subdivision as an expanded Flat structure. Up from wave A, wave ((a)) ended at 32029. Wave ((b)) extended below wave A in 3 swing and ended at 30975. Index then rallied in wave ((c)) as a 5 waves impulse.
Up from wave ((b)), wave (i) ended at 31681 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 31303. Index extended the rally higher in wave (iii) towards 32612, dips in wave (iv) ended at 32488 as triangle, and final leg higher wave (v) ended at 32791 which completed wave ((c)) of B. YM has started to turn lower in wave C. Internal subdivision of wave C should unfold in 5 waves. Expect wave ((i)) of C to end soon with a marginal low, then Index should rally to correct cycle from 9.13.2022 high in 3, 7, or 11 swing in wave ((ii)) before turning lower again. As far as pivot at 32791 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for further downside.
CPI Data collapses US markets - Watch For Rally/Reversion higherCycle patterns indicated a GAP/TOP for Monday/Tuesday. Then, they indicate a potential reversion/rally for Tuesday/Wednesday.
After watching the deep selling related to the CPI numbers, I would not be surprised to see a very strong rally/recovery over the next 48 hours in the SPY and other US Indexes.
News-based reactive moves like this are often erased over the next 24 to 48 hours as traders realize the true capacity of the future economic trends.
Stay tuned.
For my next trick. Here are the Cycle Patterns for Next WeekPay attention to my research. These cycle patterns are proving very accurate. Stay tuned for more incredible research.
SPY / SPX / ES - $USD Smacked / 6E breaks Par - the LIFT
The USD pulled back overnight on the ECB's 75 BPS Hike, until the October 21st FOMC Rate decision
is announced the DXY can easily see downside pressure.
Traders began to move against the Dollar as Major Asian Markets opened and again - ahead of the
EU Session open @ 3 AM EST, by 3:30 AM EST.
The Inversion lift was provided to the ES NQ YM RTY GC & SI @ 3 AM ET - straight up 20 Handles
for the ES. Boom went the Stimulus in FX.
Even Crude managed to lift over the 85.02 Pivot.
Financials - XLF / NQBANK / KRE etc. are going to have a Stick Save day ahead.
1 & 2Yr Bills will see some much-needed consolidation after the short end has gone parabolic over
since Wyoming Powell.
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Yesterday's increase in Put activity provided the required Globex Squeeze and extension as upon the
NYSE open there will be continued closing of Trades which have gone sideways.
Sentiment and Positioning had swung to a sell-side weighting.
Lael Brainard provided a pivotal comment - "The FED is aware of over-tightening." - this was all the
Bid required to infer further "Pivot" chatter with respect to the Policy Cushion of overdoing tightening.
2.53% Fed Funds - 8.5% Inflation... overtightening?
You do the Math. - it was all the Bulls needed to gain confidence in the Build Back Better Rally.
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SPY Pivots are as follows for Friday:
Trendline Support - 391.88
Baseline Supports - 395.22 / 396.44 / 397.61
Pivot for Higher - 401.56 provides a Throw over to 405.04 to 407.11 OR the .382 Fib of the recent High to
Lows - it should remain overhead Resistance for today.
400.25 is the over / under into the open.
Will late chasers see a hammer... not until the Puts are run off.
Friday's Gap Fills come in at 77.22% - having been surpassed by Thursday @ 80.13%. Today may be quite
different, the Gap does not need to fill today until after 11 AM EST, IF at all.
Bots adore Gaps.
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Are Institutions bidding Markets?
No, they are not - Large Traders are, however.
Above 400 on Friday and holding into the Close will provide "continuation thinking."
There is just enough Liquidity returning to provide interest and Organic Buying.
The Next Gen Squeeze awaits at 407.22 to 407.41.
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This can run further as expectations have been set for a weaker CPI next Tuesday.
Bullhorns have been blaring into the Bears Camp - they hear confirmation bias only to be
dropped into the Dunk Tank time and again - a pattern that frankly repeats itself over and over.
Bloomberg begins chortling on about "New Lows, 3400, Breaking 3600, Hawkish this/that" and it
gains mindshare traction... quickly.
Many traders are swing for the Triple when they would be far safer loading the bases with Singles,
Balks, Walks, and chalk.
Low Volume - let's leave it as Volumes are building.
On Balance, Market Internals were improving off very low levels in the OSC's reaching Sub 300 with
388 and 475 being the Crash outliers from prior events. Summations held the Zero Line and turned
in a clear Divergence.
It remains a Bear Market IMHO until we see the 50 retake the 200. And speaking of EMA's/SMA's...
they are very potent attractors - in particular defending 50/100 crosses.
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Trade Safe through early September - it's not as many believed, 11/19 has been Higher over the last
20 years - will this be 12 or 9... we'll see - Magic 8 Balls aside, expect Higher VX @ 1.5 to 3% on either side
of the Tape.
Never discount the Effects of VOX ROLL?SETTLE timing.
Good Luck to you.
HK
SPY SPX ES / Traders Flip the ScriptHigher lows are required to provide the Flip into Higher Markets off of the Lows
at the 390.85 Level.
394 is backtesting Support
399.50 is the initial Resistance.
Powell Speaks at 9:10 AM EST after - 8:30 AM EST to provide both Initial and
Continuing Jobless Claims.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks @ Noon, followed by Consumer
Credit @ 3 PM EST.
"We're committed to maintaining our Policy"
Note - the Markets prefer stable to lower Rates, of late... this has not been
present. Should Powell provide Happy Color and TNX begins to move lower.
Powell's soothing IF there is to be such 399.50 squeeze comes into the Trade.
The Counter-Trend can morph into a further Squeeze and Meltup.
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Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard spoke yesterday providing some Flip Syde to the
Tape - covering all the bases with a positive Traders uptake.
Large Traders took advantage off the recent lows and began bidding SPX for
the squeeze while Retail began to follow their thesis of Lower Lows and a retest
of the Lows - AAII reached nearly 51%.
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X Sectors in the S&P staged a large relief rally with the exception being XLE for
obvious reasons as Crude and Oil Majors were hammered lower. Crude ended the
day down 5%+ while the DX was lower on EU Rate Decision front runs.
We are one week away from VIX Roll beginning and it appears there is an early
retreat for Time to M2/V2 aka October.
The VIX Floor remains 20.50 / 28 the pivot for Higher.
VVIX in decline creates a gush of the potential onrush of VX Bids - 93.58 is the Pivot.
Bills, Notes, and Bonds saw a slight retreat, even TLT saw the 20 Year Yield provide
reprieve - coming off the 3.75s for 20 Year Yields (Implied).
DX can pull back to 108.50.
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Market Internals during this shortened week, Wednesday was simply more Positive
then Tuesday was Negative.
NYSE TICKs were sporadic and inconsistent Tuesday and Wednesday firmed the Tick.
Buying activity was not purely Sellers on Coverbuys, there was newer organic buying.
A positive for the Buyers (Bulls) which may digest ahead of Friday's Expiry or simply
explode higher on the cross of 399.50, Bulls do not want to lose 394.00 - and the
Trendline will need to provide extreme support.
Apple's big event... a sleeper IMHO. New Camera - Wide Angle. Price Points that will
reduce their continuing Cult of Buyers. Marginal users are simply moving to Android and
away from the Apple Ecosystem. They are discovering a better Value proposition for
their needs - Apple's Global Market Share continues to decline markedly.
Apple needs to see 160.25 - 156.50 as the Breakup Level.
Calls remain in Balance for Friday @ 51.7%
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Let's see how Powell presents this morning, he will drive the week end finish.
Good Luck and Trade Safe.
Bitcoin should be very close to a major bottom right nowMy analysis suggests Bitcoin needed to move below the $18.9k level in order to setup a new momentum base - then launch to levels above $25k (possibly targeting $30k or higher).
I suggest Bitcoin traders start to look for a base/bottom setup below $18.8 (if possible) as I expect a very big rush to safety taking place over the next 60+ days. I believe this flight to safety will be the result of some geopolitical event - not a Fed event. Possibly China/Russia or somewhere else.
My research suggests the second half of 2022 is highly likely to include a major cycle inflection trigger. Watch OIL, GOLD, SILVER, US Dollar and other major indexes.
Something very big is going to hit between now and the end of September 2022.
Bitcoin should start to bottom and then move above $23k fairly quickly - possibly within 10+ days.
