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MBS - The Darkest end of the PoolBravo TV, off again by over a Trillion, no mention of the Junk Co sitting on Primaries @ $50 they cannot unload. FED MBS is $2.7 Trillion. Commercial Banks hold $3.13 Trillion in MBS. Get it together. ____________________________________________ NO BID is the current arrangement, 30 Year Mortgages up from 3 to 6%. The Fed's average Maturity is 7.1 Years, they'll be bagging these for some time and in order to bail out the primaries they'll have to suck up more. OR they can crash the Bond Markets. They'll attempt to run it off, but they own 28.2% of all Mortgages. The Bond Market is performing the FED's work, cuz the punks at the FED have no intention of powering in QT., rather, much further instability and dislocation Risk. ______________________________________________ THE FED IS TARGETING STOCKS for a reason... Thye need a Inverse Wealth Effect and are winning on that front. Much more to come... FSR is a 50% reduction @ 8K NQ and 2.4K ES. ______________________________________________ Growth, Payrolls, Retails Sales? Fight Inflation? Give us 75 to 100 in July. Bring down Equities to targets and transfer the Wealth. Far and away the easiest "Target" is the Market for Stocks.
FRED:MBST
by HK_L61
4
DOW - YM Ketchup28.2K and 24K await... it's simply a matter of time. Industrials for the Post Industrial Co-Dependent Economy are being Sold as if there is no tomorrow... Nothing like a solid lift to re-enter the Trend, which is Down. Counter-Trends are nasty Bed Fellows. 3M, Dow, and a great many of the glory days Equities are being dumped on the heads of Ma n' Pa. Dividend-paying Junk Co frankly makes sense for them... for now. CD Rates did not decline in the most recent TNX Pullback. Banks are now more hated than ever. Brokers are in the lead, though as Passives are frankly the new Index Funds of the early 2000s - CLick this and that, whammy, Ron Burgundy would be proud. Stay Classy INDU. Stay Classy.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by HK_L61
Showcase: Trading the e-mini Dow Jones (YM) 22-06-201. Did a long trade (paper trading) on e-mini Dow Jones. 2. Reason for the long trade: a) Price do a higher lower; a UT bar appears but the next bar overtake the UT. b) Volume is supporting the upward move. c) Strong support level at 29910 range. 3. Trade entered with SL @ 50pts and TP @ 75pts; as price move upwards with unrealised profit, the SL is revised upwards to minimise the losses and eventually lock-in the profit. 4. Price eventually do a pullback after breaking the recent Resistance (29966 range); our SL got hit and we exited with a realised profit of 24pts. 5. Price may move upwards from hereon; it is OK to exit with a small profit rather than be ambitious.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by mdalifalwi
We can't go anywhere without the DOWI was a bullish hopeful at the start of the week...I was thinking we would fill the 4K gap on the ES and then just go. Instead we spent 4 days closing below this figure. Yes, we closed the week above it and kept the lagging span just above the cloud but we cannot go anywhere with the DOW and this chart says it all. Neckline is clearly broken. Now, I do think we could have a minor rally to end May with a possible green monthly candle. The charts are clearly broken and will have limited re-tracements IMO. The NQ & RTY are in bear markets, enough said there. Sell the rip....
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Vixtine
3
SPY/SPX/ES/MES Elliot Wave AnalysisLooks like a big rally shaping up to end the month of May, but June should be a full-on bear fest, at least to start the month. Major Wave 1 down should end in the 3200 - 3500 zone. Likely, we'll rebound from there into the Fall of 2022. Major Wave 3 will likely project down to the 1500 zone. Major Wave 5 will likely end in late Spring 2023 with target projections somewhere between 1500 - 1200 with a very real possibility of undercutting the 2009 low @ 666. If we do undercut 666, supercycle Wave 5 up should begin, lasting 8.6 years into 2032 and reaching 50k to 100k + on the Dow Industrials. After that, it's possible the whole thing drops to zero and the shithouse goes up in flames. Credit to Dan E. for his wave analysis and Elliot Wave International CME_MINI:ES1! Side note - When things get super volatile, I like to trade the mini ES. Trades great with excellent liquidity.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by imdp
Upside Exhaustion Move In Bitcoin Is OverThe recent bounce in the US major indexes and Bitcoin is likely very close to completion right now. I would urge everyone to pull profits and prepare for the next big wave (likely LOWER). Fibonacci Price Theory suggests this trend is still bearish and Bitcoin would have to rally above $34,150 to start a new recovery phase. My analysis suggests more selling is needed to flush out a real bottom. I suspect the ES/NQ/YM and other sectors will do the same thing over the next few weeks - move lower attempting to FLUSH OUT a bottom. Pay attention to my research.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BradMatheny
5
Elliott Wave View: Dow Futures ($YM) Extending LowerShort Term View in Dow Futures suggest cycle from 5/5/2022 high is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from 5/5, wave A ended at 31148 and wave B rally ended at 32695. Internal subdivision of wave B unfolded as a zigzag structure in lesser degree. Up from wave A, wave ((a)) ended at 32201, and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 31778. Final leg higher wave ((c)) ended at 32695 which completed wave B. Index has turned lower in wave C. Potential target for wave C is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave A at 27950 – 29750 area. Wave C subdivides as a 5 waves impulsive structure. Down from wave B, wave (i) ended at 32238 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 32651. Index then resumes lower and expected to complete wave (iii) soon. Then it should rally in wave (iv) and turn lower 1 more time to end wave (v) and complete wave ((i)). Afterwards, Index should rally in wave ((ii)) to correct cycle from 5/17/2022 high before the decline resumes. Near term, as far as 5/17/2022 pivot at 32695 remains intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
YM - 2 Hour DOW INDU Not a good Look Longer term. 28.200 is the Gap Fill. 24K as well. With Financial and Industrial imploding, the RT will be Weak at best. ___________________________________ Copper and SIlver will consolidate prior to giving the YM the kick down the stairs, the correlations there are solid. ___________________________________ Short terms, stick save followed by more dumping ahead. DX needs to break 107s to put the nail in the DOW Coffin. It's been collecting Coffin nails for some time,
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by HK_L61
S&P500 next move according to Cycle AnalysisAfter reaching the target in the previous analysis and confirming the reverse trend from downtrend to uptrend, according to my new analysis, we should reach a good target in the #S&P500 CURRENCYCOM:US500 around 4400. After that, it will reverse the uptrend to the downtrend again. Based on these trends and according to the Top Down Approach method, a basket of US stocks can be traded, as well as Dow Jones and Nasdaq. In fact, SP500 is used as a Leader for trading other symbols. Given the positive correlation between SP and Bitcoin, I expect Bitcoin to rise to around $ 43,000 and fall below $ 25,000 again. Happy Trading
ULong
by mrsaghi
DOW / NASDAQBear Market signals persist. When the DOW begins to outperform on the downside, we have a clear indication of a lengthy BEAR Market. It's just beginning. Counter Trends are a normal course in prolonged Trends. The ONLY real reversal... QE: Global Central Banks began withdrawing Liquidity via RRP's since July of 2021. The contraction made a controlled contraction below 0 into a negative range well below the Peak Monthly $1.5T down to $300B and on down to 0 in January, going - $250B during the 3rd week of January - they have maintained the drain since this time... it is remained between -$180 to -$255B to the present. Lows into October 2023 imho.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by HK_L61
Elliott Wave View: Dow Futures (YM) Corrective Rally in ProgressShort Term Elliott Wave View in Dow Futures (YM) suggests the cycle from April 21, 2022 high is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from April 21 high, wave (A) ended at 33015 and rally in wave (B) ended at 33968. Internal of wave (B) is unfolding as a zigzag in lesser degree. Up from wave (A), wave A ended at 33611, pullback in wave B ended at 33155, and wave C rally ended at 33968. Wave (C) lower is in progress with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse. Down from wave (B), wave ((i)) ended at 33672 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 33903. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 32820, wave ((iv)) ended at 33145, and wave ((v)) of 1 ended at 32358. Index is now correcting the decline from April 29 peak in wave 2 before it resumes lower. Up from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 33148 and wave ((b)) dips ended at 32806. Expect wave ((c)) to continue higher with possible target to 33591 – 33776 to end wave 2 before the decline resumes. Near term, as far as pivot at 33968 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for further downside.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
DOWJONES 4 hour : dont fear pick buy above 33000 and hold ittoday nasdaq push index down , mst powerfull place ( next low) can be in 33000 , after buy DONT CLOSE IT SOON , TRY HOLD IT 15-20 DAY minimum to 34400 EMA200 daily will touch soon or late !!! for safe buy , after 33000 touch , you can wait Pinbar comes on 1hour or 4hour , or daily chart or in 15min chart , dow break last trendline to up good luck , if you have old buys , dont fear on dow daily chart trend is UP , it will fly up soon
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by ramin_trader2006
1