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YM - Monthly Close > 35035 for August LIS / SEP VX +++The Risk of a 2 month correction after this week completes and treading begins Tuesday. This does not appear to be a major high and a retest of support back to the 31,000 level is possible as long as 37,000 level on the Dow is not exceeded. Wide Range? Indeed - 2,000+ Ticks of range. Yes, it all is within the boundaries of enormous Ranges, trade Micro CT's in INV Ladders as opposed to going all in at a specific level. ALL order flow is bought and sold, everywhere to varying degrees. When it is raining SELLs, the fuel remains for a Squeeze. We are anticipating a SELL this week in ALL Equities, we'll see where they game it too... prior to dipping back into the SELLER Deep End of the Pool. Overall, we are Bias to downside, patiently waiting for signals that will arrive all too quickly. Transport look weak... DX will provide cover early in the week, Yields not so much... Blink and you'll miss it - imho. - HK
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by HK_L61
20
dow has trendline resistance it could break.all markets are trying to climb out of the hole this morning. they could do it, but with a selloff fresh in our memories, it is very hard to be a buyer, knowing that at any point the sellers could regain their confidence and try dropping it again. From a risk management standpoint this lowers the probability of finding a stop loss in a protected area. with the threat of bears in the air, there essentially isn't a protected area, which means you can probably only rely on pattern breakouts, which I'm not really seeing much of. They have been forming, but they haven't initiated big volatile moves like you would see when a market has clearly picked a direction.
CBOT_MINI:YMU2021
by emehoke
ES - Channel Surfing 2hr - NQ YM RTY SOXS TQQQ TLT ZN ZB ARKKFriday's WRR was symptomatic of how the Order Book and Market @ depth can be rung like a Bell - Every stop was smoked. We held 493s @ 12 after peeling off the same ahead of Thursday. A solid and comfortable buffer of 8 Handles giving us a 501 B/E - Stop was 96, the reaction level and prior PO. Wrecked in minutes, All positions took the poker, hot. NQ was the leader into Thursday close, making a lower low on the Hourly, while finishing Friday @ new ATHs. The only trade taken in NQ was the initial higher high @ 428 to 390 on 80 MNQ scaled in from 426. This Sell became the fuel for the next stop run higher. Retail Traders entered and reentered the Sell all day only to be crushed under the Futures bid. The Semis bid took SOXS to new lows, ending our position on Stop - our largest loser in 17 months. TQQQ stopped .38 below entry. TLT ZN ZB closed @ 0.12%+ ARKK Stopped at ~ Entry and on and on it goes... stop stop stop run. 1st losing day in 17 days and a large loss on SMH's. ______________________________________________________________________________ ES Chart illustrates the higher targets - and lower 4441/4444 Support - 80 Handle range. What it does not show is the following - Market on Close orders were followed on in Globex - the Sell imbalances... were immense. Perhaps those in the know, knew the Drone Strike retaliation was on Deck. It is clear we are in a Large topping process, with stop run after stop run the tool in trade. Where this terminates now is a WAG. The very moment everything lines up in a large SELL, the rescue operation doubles down and makes New ATHs on expanding divergences. Frustrating in the extreme as it requires very large drawdowns, unacceptable drawdowns on Capital. Hedging DEC SELLs with SEP Bids Intra-Day has worked, although the Risks in continuing this balance is so extreme, we are going to remain in CASH with an extreme negative position structure.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HK_L61
NQ - Equity Analysis, Macro Events - Friday Powell 10AM ESTNQ and the Balance of Equity Instruments traded to resistance overnight ahead of Today's Macro Data and Fed Chair Powell speaking @ 10:00 AM EST. Kaplan's expected reversal of reversal Taper, came and went. Bullard was extremely Hawkish yesterday. IF Powell is less so, the DX will decline. Financials remain in SELL. Bonds remains in a SELL. ROCs in 10Yr need to be watched carefully. VIX inside the Long from lows with all pullbacks defended - 18.95 LIS. FRYday's are usually "VIX Attack". Support for VIX M1 @ 19.65. ES remains in a Larger Long, it defended the .382 with the Gap Fill @ 4466.65. YM is the Weak Sister, it defends Globex resistance. RTY has yet to trade a Pull Back. The usual suspects - AMC TSLA ARKK do not look good... it is OPEX. Gamma failing for the 4th week in a row. Participation will roll off after 11:30 AM EST as EU Session closes. BR/VG will be on the hunt... Friday's are theirs's. We are taking today off from trading on balance with 1/4 to 1/2 size today at maximum. Next week will provide the continuation to advancing the SELL, we began positioning for it this week. 38% Sell to Open presently DEC on Derivs and M1 - M3 Vix Complex. Today's Price action will be aggressive if the usual suspects show up to run Prices. We will simply Hedge DEC with SEP CTs if necessary. 10AM will obviously provide a reaction, we are SOH til then. For today, we are Neutral and trading very small size, limiting risk exposure.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
50
VIX - VJH / Financials / Bonds / Velocity / Scope / ScaleGood Morning - Hope this finds everyone well. The Virtual Jackson Hole Symposium begins a 3 day affair today. _______________________________________________________________________ Bonds Macro Data includes Preliminary GDP and Unemployment Claims @ 8:30AM EST. Economic Calendar - www.investing.com Bonds out the Curve 10Yr (ZN) - 20Yr (TLT) - 30Yr (ZB) have been pulling back. As we indicated in prior commentary, the ROC (Rate of Change) is seeing increasing Velocity ahead of VJH. The 10Yr is the weakest Instrument. Volatility in Bonds, we anticipate will begin to Increase. Bonds have been the Deposit of Choice, regardless of Real Returns - the Return of Capital as opposed to the return on Capital - this speak volumes as to what is coming. An assured loss in Bonds is axiomatic as Inflation remains well above Real Returns adjusted well beyond the CPI/PII inaccuracy. _______________________________________________________________________ Financials Traditionally, Financials respond well to Positive Rate Adjustments. In prior Macro Observations, we Indicated some time ago, Banks were no longer lending. We began to Observe Banks reducing Lines of Credit (LOCs) and Revolving Credit. Reverse Repurchase Agreements began a change in Term Structure early in 2021, with longer dated terms out to 48 Days, some further duration. As Economic activity is grinding down, Banks were exposed to increased Deposits. Liabilities, which they began to shun, driving increases in Money Markets, which have become Bloated. This is reminiscent of when the Dollar Broke Par during the 2006-2008 Financial Crisis. This one event spooked the Markets, it set off a large Panic. It was not until Janet Yellen and Timothy Geithner arranged for $2 Trillion in Short Dated Treasuries to be authorized, did the DX crisis abate. The Dollar is being hoarded as Fear continues to compound. It is the Senior and Reserve Currency and during crisis, remains the preferred Position. The thinking is simple - Why give the Government my Money as it is assured a loss, the Debt can never be paid back. It can be paid back synthetically - a Tomato would be $1,400.00. _______________________________________________________________________ Volatility Events - Important Events to Market Participants, speed up Market Activity. It expands the Scope and Scale of participation, while having a large and profound effect upon the speed of Trading Activity. Prices become extreme in Intra-Day actions. Yesterday, we observed a large Bid under the Front Month M1 @ the 19.00 level. Protection was being Bid there. During Globex, we saw 18.95 trade, a one tick dip below, this is quite typical as the VX always trades a one Tick move above or below when it is staging. And it is... the Falling Wedge on the Daily has provided 7 Months of Wash Rinse Repeat declines programmed to perfection. The larger Daily Targets for the VIX M1 extend to the 12s. The problem is, they haven't traded below 16... All eyes should be on Volatility as it begins to pick up. As many of you know we have a large VX Position - VXX, VX Curve, VXM, we will continue to build this position into September. We anticipated a Break of Trend for the Globex Tuesday night session. It failed to materialize as Distribution is incomplete, but very close to ending. Last night's GLOBEX Session was a clue, we saw indecision. We are watching the VIX M1 Front Month @ 10:00AM EST for 19.65 as the level to indicate the VIX Curve will be breaking up and out. To be clear, this is NOT the Cash/Spot VIX - the Instrument is the Front Month Futures Contract. ________________________________________________________________________________ Our Position Sells are weighted heavily in TECH and VOLATILITY. We anticipate at least an 11% Correction form the most recent ATHs. It is developing, albeit slowly... this is about to change IMHO. BE well, Happy Hunting. - HK _______________________________________________________________________
CBOE:VX1!Short
by HK_L61
3
NQ - Building December SELLs NQ ES RTY YM - First EntriesMNQ STO - 10 x 15365 MNQ STO - 5 x 15360 MNQ STO - 5 x 15355 MNQ STO - 5 x 15350 EQ - 2.5 NQ Sells After Kaplans later Friday reversal, the die was cast for the cartoonish over throw. Our Initial Target from 3 weeks ago was 15363, this target was met and exceeded in the NQ SEP CT @ 15384. We will continue to use SEP as the BTO Hedge, we closed 2 NQ from 170 break at 322. We hold Zero SEP Hedge for NQ currently. We remain in a large Bid for SOXS, with 28K @ 6.91~ ES -STO 6.5K CTs RTY - 0 Positions YM - 0 Positions CL - STO 7K 65.87 VXX - BTO 6 CTs 2644 VX - M1/M2/M3 BTO 8 CTs on Curve VXM - M1 40MCTs SOXS - 28K ~ 6.912 ___________________________________________________________________________ The VIX Curve implies an 86% chance of increased Volatility for the Indices today. Extremes in many metrics and indicators, keep us in a Line Feed Out strategy for a violent reversal. The Monthly patterns, imho - are completing off two historic conditions: 1. A break away monthly Gap - never occurred in History, never. 2. 7 Monthly Bull Bars probability is 12:1 against. An 8th has never occurred in the past 25 Years. Market breadth is extreme in its weakness. Gamma was once again the driver, with vastly reduced Call Volumes. AAPL TSLA GOOG NVDA - another attempt at GS will fail imho AMC Apes bought the 39s... we are seller of AMC from 37.50 to 41.00 TSLA - Sellers at 720 - 750 ARKK - Sellers 120.11 to 125 WE Anticipate a violent reversal very soon. Ideally, today should close Negative no later than Globex. Prosperity to those positioned for the reversal. - HK
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by HK_L61
17
ES - Monthly Terminations over the past 25 YearsThe throw over continues to imbue the Bulls who see Big Green Bars to chase. And why not? It works consistently, the FED has your back. Until it decides "Extremely Elevated Equities" need a solid trim. Our indications of a throw over last week have played out perfectly. After Distribution, Market Makers are permitted to extract their exit and pound of flesh, it happens over and over and over. The party is coming to a decided end for the Shorter Term. Chase Bars or slowly feed out your lines. We are feeding out lines. - HK
CME_MINI:ESU2021Short
by HK_L61
3
ES - Over Throw Completing 4496 / 4512 / 4532Thank the Stars we got the push off the .22 ES/M2. It had dipped in, indicating the Stop Run would complete by Tuesday. This will be taken away far quicker than the chaser will comprehend. We are loading the proverbial woodshed with SELLS. BR/VG tossed a bunch of Jing to position for protection... we did as well. All Buy to opens across the YM ES RTY NQ were closed. We are in a confirmed SELL as Targets/Orders on our Inverse Ladder FILL. Big Lick, dead ahead. xoxo- Hunter Killer
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by HK_L61
9
Reverse Repos - Cross All Time Highs @ 1.117 TrillionNothing to see here, of course. Unless you are a student of History and well versed in the prior Financial Crisis of 2004 - 2008. We identified the issues with respect to RMBS in March of 2004, published it and waited ~ 13 months for it to unfold. A year later the Equities Complex began to see large distortions which resulted in a 10X leverUp by the Fed following the 2008 Crisis. We are seeing precisely the same patterns today. Although this will require more time to complete, the trend remains the same. A correction, followed by new all time highs, followed by a larger 50%+ correction from higher All Time Highs in 2022. It should be clear, M2 NEVER SLEEPS :) Prosperous "Trading" to everyone. It's a Jungle in here.
FRED:RRPONTSYDShort
by HK_L61
11
MARGIN DEBT - An ST PeakThe Peak for Intermediate Margin Debt peaked in July. After 15 months of elevation... It has declined 4.48% as Fear and Uncertainty have taken ahold... this appeared in the most recent release in Consumer Confidence, which Collapsed. Although the Gross Notional is nowhere near the highs as a percentage of Total Assets Value, as we have repeatedly indicated, the Trend is clear. It serves as further Confirmation of the Distribution Patterns we have Indicated for 47 Days. Technical Metrics clearly illustrate this among Larger Daily Divergences present within the Equity Complex. While BR/VG continue to accumulate an Outsized VX Position, the "Investor, HODL, MEME, Retail Trader, Speculator and well oiled Degenerate Gambler" Class continue to twaddle with even fewer outright purchases.... Instead, levering up with Options as Margin Debt continues to head South. The perfect setup is nearing completion. The exits are too narrow to prevent 95% of the above Casino participants from being harmed. We attempt to promote Sanity with respect to Trading and although a great many find it offensive and "Abusive" - it is not. To bad choices there are extreme consequences. It is your Capital, your choice, your decision. HK seeks opportunity, nothing more... clinging to Coat Tails of those in Control. Following Obeying Profiting To Win, there must be a Loss. We are taking a large SELL Position, the largest since August of 2020. A minimum of an 11% decline is the Lower Target.
FRED:BOGZ1FL663067003QShort
by HK_L61
One way Ticket TOTAL Assets expand 10X off prior Crisis while...No tickie, No laundry. Simple really,. Where has it left us, this historical Credit Cycle? Here: A collapse in Global Economic Activity. The Highest ROC for Inflation in History. The greatest unwind of Consumer Confidence in History. The sharpest declines for Both M1/M2 Velocities in History. The Lowest percentage of Employed Workers in History. The Highest Homeless Population in History. _____________________________________________________ Dissention @ the FED with ONE EXCEPTION - there was complete and total agreement among the Fed BOG Voting Members and Non-Voting Members - ASSET PRICES ARE EXTREMELY ELEVATED. Simply read the Minutes - it's there in Black and White. Carlo lays it all out, concerns surrounding VX Curve on Short End of UST Curve, Asset VX, Asset Elevation, Inflation Target Remedy and on and on it devolves. They are engineering a Correction, period. As Wave 4 Due South sets up, the Degenerate Gamblers and those ignorant and unaware will be caught as the Tide is permitted to go out for what will be the shortest Taper in recorded History. A bluff, and then... Well, that is frankly akin to asking a Shark what's for Dinner. A renewed push by the Federal Reserve at unimaginable levels of Shadow Banking Expansions.
FRED:WALCLShort
by HK_L61
TLT - Longer End 10/20/30 FlatteningSince 2002 when GSCO's Timothy Bitsberger's began his reign as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury. Fiscal Fundings began to move down the curve to under 30 Months and accumulate a large concentration within this timeframe. It placed the burden of Government Finance up on the Short End of the Yield Curve near the region of control for the Federal Reserve and their ability to drive Monetary Policy. During the waning decades to today, the Bond Markets have become 11.2X the size of Equities. Since 2008 we have witnessed a rapid acceleration in Money Stock, one which remains underreported then (as the FED ceased reporting M2) to today where the very life blood of Credit Growth Velocity has dried up and reversed. TARP, TALF and the Yield Swaps accumulated $32 Trillion in Debt. 91% of the American Public was against these Monetary Measure then.... Today they Gag for it as the Global Economy lays in ruin. Independent Producers have been wrecked to the point, recovery is simply not viable. The FED Minutes served to provide several references to moving up the Timeline for Tapering. This provides cover for Powell's (we'll let ya know while we're thinking about thinking) as behind the scenes they are preparing for short duration reduction in the usual suspects - RMBS, CDO, CDO, Corp Debt, Zombie DEBT. Yield Curve Controls became evident as the 1.71 10Yr yield was not permitted to be breached, had it and Swaps would have been grossly offsides and created a large dislocation. At present, The uncertainty over the impact of this Policy change - Potential Policy change - remain in Flux. The Dollar, our target is 9465 ST, remains the wild card as the EU faces retribution for decades of abuse and a failed attempt at Negative Interest Rates - the vote of Confidence ALWAYS flows to the Currency of Seniorege, the US DOLLAR. Capital Flows favor US Markets as China is making it extraordinarily clear, they are closing off the Monetary & Economic Borders well in advance of the UNWIND coming to our shores. A steepening or inverting yield Curve is immaterial. We crossed the Rubicon long, long ago. As we witness the SPX to M2 Stock overthrow the .22 level - there is an important message there, extremely important, which is why we suggested the ES would attempt an over-throw on Friday @ the 4441 level. These actions ahead of Jackson Hole are significant. More to follow within the 5 Part thesis beginning with ES/M2S, TLT, Divergences, Capital Flows and "Resurrections' Trade" HK
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
2
SPX SPY ES - Throw Over - SPX/M2 Money Stock For HK, this is the most important Chart we follow and obey. The larger TF here - Daily - perfectly illustrates how Price moves along a trend range... Until it snaps and collapses quickly. This is precisely what we believe will occur in the next few weeks or perhaps sooner. We will see a sharp reversal with 2 distinct thrusts down as primaries. Time is running out for the Buy Side. What took months to build will be taken out quickly.
SP:SPXShort
by HK_L61
8
M1 - Velocity continues deterioratingAs BR & VG maintain a healthy prop under the Equities Complex.... Real activity outside of the "Markets" is grinding to a decided halt. Uncertainty has gained a foothold and it is not going to reverse in the near future. The spectacle in chasing Price, big greens bars... is merely a trade. It is not an investment, those days are long gone as the Fundamentals of our Economy have collapsed. The prop can buy time, but that is limited as well as Risk Factors only continue to compound. They are everywhere and well ignored by speculators and gamblers alike. Behaviors are symptomatic of far greater ills within our Culture, which had devolved to into a myriad of untoward circumstances. Patterns repeat. We are witnessing the transfer of wealth on a scale unseen in Human History. It is truly disturbing. The panic Sell can only be prolonged for a finite time. When Price cuts loose to the downside, most will Hold as the indoctrination of FED Policy and BTD is what plays. Until it does not.
FRED:M1VShort
by HK_L61
NQ - Micros, as Indicated BR/VG throw-over attempt is a SELLThe ALGOs are attached themselves to this Draw for Fills @ .618 off Lows or the -.382. There has been one toss over which has traded, there will be another simply to run all Retail SELLERs out of the SELL. This happened in 2020, it is happening again. Although Breadth expanded among smaller Caps and AAPLs Gamma Squeeze failed at the new ATH and top of the range - BR/VG continue to CONfuse Sellers with these prop house retracements. Volumes dried up at lows during Globex as the chasers pressed off the ledge and continued pressing until - a sharp reversal took Price to implied Targets above. Never discount their ability to FORCE a FILL. N E V E R. They always get it, it is purely axiomatic. This imbues the Dippers to reconsider their recent mistakes of chasing ATHs, but make no mistake... this MESS will drop so quickly, most heads will spin... it's setting up. ROCs to the downside will gain momentum as Wall Street gets its fill. Follow them, we do. It is how we traders win. They have the inside line on looming Geopolitical RISK.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by HK_L61
5
NQ - Sell Entries for Larger Decline (DX shows the way)Levels are for THIS Weekly Closing. .382 is the likely Level... unless BR goes full tilt Friday... tough move for them as it puts them out of balance. VG & BR played cat and mouse until 3:45PM EST this go around and then unleashed the afterburners expected early at 2:45PM EST. We'll take it as it shows the longer pattern of Distribution has come to a decided end. AS Liquidity dries up into Friday, they'll need to buy it... or it plunges. 14502 is our next primary Target as 2Day everything broke. Uncle Buck wants 94.65 - it will get there. TSLA couldn't save the ES, let alone itself as it tried and tried to break 696, Sellers said nope, screw you. 4441 ES pivot is now gone, adios... 4003 or so, 200SMA decline has begun, it's going to be sporty, so we've moved 1/2 positions out to December on ES and NQ - YM Losing 35K was an important footnote on the Day as it can RT. RUT = DOA, never able to recapture 2335. The initial leg has another 8% with ease prior to a whipsaw. CONfidence in Dipping is ending. Fear and cautionary tones setting in today. Ever gullible... changed their tunes as well @ 4:02PM EST. Only the Kinky Meme's are hanging in there, the usual suspects AMC< GME< TSLA (yes Tesla is a Meme imho) As Opex unfolds on an ill-liquid Friday, any large Volume profit taking will see a 3% down day without breaking a sweat. We repeatedly warned of this decline setup, although our higher Fills were not tagged, we're good with that, there is plenty more, a great deal more where today came from. Larger downside targets were all confirmed today, there isn't much out of DC or NYC that can reverse what is now in motion. Trust and Confidence were broken this week. Buckle up, it's going to be a nasty ride South for another 400 ES handles.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by HK_L61
2