DOW JONES Buy signal to 35300 short termDow Jones crossed again over the former Falling Resistance after making a bounce near the 1day MA100.
This is the third time this level holds in almost one month.
This keeps the long term Channel Up pattern intact.
The 1day RSI is on the exact level of the June 2nd break out, showing a high level of symmetry of waves inside the Channel Up structure.
Buy and target the 0.786 Fibonacci level (35300).
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YM1!
DOW JONES: Rejected on the 2week Resistance. Any change to recovDow Jones is having a sharp opening pullback on the 1H timeframe but remains on a bullish 4H technical outlook (RSI = 58.586, MACD = 126.970, ADX = 41.565), as the HL trendline of the Bullish Megaphone is holding. The reason for the pullback is the rejection on the R1 Zone (35,100 - 35,030). A 4H MACD Bearish Cross will most likely take the price to the HL trendline and the 4H MA50 (TP = 34730) in order to test the buying accumulation at the bottom of the Megaphone.
A buy signal consists over the R1 Zone, whose target will be the Megaphone's HH trendline (TP = 35,400).
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DOW JONES Strong bullish leg within a Bullish Megaphone.Dow Jones (DJI) gave us a strong bottom buy signal 8 days ago (see chart below):
On today's idea we look at the 1H time-frame, which offers a buy opportunity for quick 1-2 day profit as the index is on a strong bullish leg within a newly formed Bullish Megaphone. Based on the 1H RSI which turned overbought and the 1H MACD which just formed a Bearish Cross, this sequence resembles the August 28 - 31 fractal and we could be on a similar position as on August 30.
That was the final consolidation before the bullish leg made its peak on Resistance 1 (35100). Due to the Bullish Megaphone, this time it can go a little higher, so today's buy position targets 35150.
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DOW JONES 1st 1W Bullish Cross since 2016. Can we see 42k next?Dow Jones (DJI) is forming this week the first MA50 (blue trend-line) / MA100 (green trend-line) Bullish Cross (when the former crosses above the latter) on the 1W time-frame since September 2016 (assuming January/ February 2021 was flat due to the COVIC flash crash).
This on its own is a major long-term buy signal, especially since the 1W MA50 has been supporting since March. As you can see the 2022 - 2023 price action is very similar to the 2015 - 2016 sequence. Both fractals started on a Bear Cycle under Lower Highs, which bottomed after marginally breaking below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The new Bull Cycle was confirmed after the price broke above the Lower Highs trend-line and turned it into a Support being formerly a Resistance. The 1W MA50/100 Bearish Cross signified the bottom. Notice how even the 1W RSI and 1W MACD fractals are identical with their respective Higher Lows.
It appears that Dow is currently past the initial Channel Down and on the Circle pattern, which in 2016 was the final consolidation before a hyper aggressive rally that topped in January 2018. Before that top it reached the 1.5 and 1.786 Fibonacci extensions.
We treat the current pull-back as the last opportunity to buy this upcoming rally while the price is still that low. Having relatively low expectations, we expect to see at least 42000 (1.5 Fibonacci) by the end of Q1 - start of Q2 2024.
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DOW JONES Last buy opportunity on the 1D MA50.Dow Jones (DJI) got rejected on August 31 on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and that made the price pull-back. We are now close to the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) again, which is where the initial rebound started on August 25, exactly at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up.
This is the final buy opportunity on this pattern, as any closing below it would be a pattern invalidation and the trend would change to bearish on the long-term. Key to this, is the formation of a 4H Golden Cross, which could be only 4-5 days away. The last such formation was on June 09 and as with the one that preceded that, it will be a bullish signal.
We will wait for either a new 1D MA50 test or a completed 4H Golden Cross in order to buy with the lowest risk possible. Target 1 will be 36000 and Target 2 36900 (just below the All Time High).
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DOW JONES Buy opportunity after strongest correction since May.Dow Jones (DJI) is consolidating under the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the 5th straight day and is doing so near the bottom of the 5-month just above the 1D MA50 (green trend-line). The latter has been intact since June 02, so technically we are at a very strong Support zone. In fact August's decline so far has been the strongest technical correction since May.
The lower buy confirmation will come after the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross, but you can also take the break-out buy signal if a 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50 first. In any case, our bullish target is 36300, which would represent a +6.13% rise, the minimum rise % since the Channel Up started on March 15.
If however the 1D candle closes below the 1D MA100, we will take a quick sell and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 33800. Upon successful hitting of the target, we will add the 2nd buy position and use it for a longer term target at 36900.
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DOW JONES First time near the 1D MA50 since July 10.Dow Jones is having the strongest pull-back since late May, so far still within the technical boundaries of the 5 month Channel Up. In doing so, it is only a few points before hitting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been intact since the July 10 Low. Despite that contact, the index hasn't closed a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 since June 01, which was at the start of that Channel Up Higher Low.
As a result, we remain bullish aiming at a +6.10% rise to 36800, as long as the 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50. If it fails we will take the small loss and quick sell instead towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at 34200, which is exactly at the bottom of the 5-month Channel Up.
If that scenario is materialized, then we will only buy again after the 1D MACD completes a Bullish Cross, most likely (but not necessarily) closer to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). In that case our buy target will be 36900, just below the All Time High of 2021.
P.S. The 1D RSI already broke below its Higher Lows trend-line, potentially an early bearish warning.
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DOW JONES The Inverse Head & Shoulders no-one is talking about.The Dow Jones (DJI) index remains within its 5 month Channel Up pattern that started in mid March and recently hit its top. What the majority of the market is missing is a stronger pattern on the wider 1W time-frame. This long-term chart shows that an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern priced its Head (bottom) when the Channel Up started and completed the Right Shoulder on the first week of July.
As a result, the aggressive 3 week rally that followed is a natural consequence of the completion of that pattern, similar to the October - November 2022 rally that led to the start of the IH&S. Such patterns can technically target as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level, which sits just above the 36975 All Time High. As the 1W RSI is bounce on a Pivot level (formerly a Resistance), we have more reasons to continue to be bullish in this market and target first the 35900 Resistance and ultimately the ATH at 36975, potentially all within the boundaries of the Channel Up.
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DOW JONES: Top is in. Sell signal confirmed.Dow Jones turned neutral on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 52.418, MACD = 174.150, ADX = 47.396) for the first time in one month after the price was rejected inside our targeted zone consisting of R1 - R2. The price completed an approximate +6.20% rise, which is the technical norm inside the four month Channel Up pattern that is holding to this date.
Technically this is a sell signal, targeting the 1D MA50 (TP = 34,650). A 1D candle close under the 1D MA50, signals an additional sell, targeting the bottom of the Channel Up and the 1D MA200 (TP = 34,150).
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Look at the futures market open post NFP Miss. A short look across major futures markets after we have an NFP Miss
DOW JONES Can go to 36000 before is starts another correction.Dow Jones / US30 us extending the rise inside the 4 month Channel Up, supported by the 4hour MA50.
It has already crossed over Resistance A (35525) and as long as the 4hour MA50 holds, it can even break above Resistance B and make a Higher High inside the 36000 - 36100 range.
Sell when the price crosses under the 4hour MA50 and target the 4hour MA200.
An alternative target to close sell positions can be when the 4hour RSI gets oversold under 30.00.
Previous chart:
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DOW JONES Sell signal at the top of the Channel Up.Dow Jones reached the top of the 4 month Channel Up today just after crossing above Resistance (1).
The MA50 (1d) is the first Support of this pattern and has been untouched since July 10th.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 34450 (expected course of the MA50 1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is has formed a top pattern, same as April 13th and June 15th.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Range day until fed meeting on US30Expecting a range day until fed meeting.
If the current green box hold, then we can go long in morning with possible target as 35500
If we break the current green box then we are looking for a downward move to 35250.
Would be great to take a look at overnight price action
If long:
Entry - 35400
Stop - 35350
Target - 35500
If short:
Entry - 35350
Stop - 35400
Target - 35250
DOW JONES: Technical pull-back possible inside the Channel Up.Dow Jones is highly overbought on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 74.321, MACD = 411.840, ADX = 51.669) and coupled with the price approaching R1 (35,530) and R2 (35,885), which form a HH Rejection Zone, the probability of a technical pull-back strengthens.
HH bullish legs inside the Channel Up get rejected after reaching a +6% rise, so even on that parameter, Dow is close. The 1D RSI is also almost on the HH trendline. Consequently we are going short, targeting the 1D MA50 (TP = 34,400).
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DOW JONES Starting to turn into sell with overbought RSIDow Jones crossed over even Resistance 1 (34950) and is getting very close to the top of the Channel Up.
Along with the RSI (1d) entering the 70.00 overbought zone, the index is starting to give the first sell signal.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell from the current market price to Resistance 2 (35535).
Targets:
1. 34150 (potential contact with the MA50 1d).
Tips:
1. Every Higher High rejection inside this Channel Up was made on a Double Top could. That's the reason for us providing a sell range.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
US30 LongLooks like a good opportunity to go long on Dow Jones. Just broken the ascending triangle and the supply zone as well and heading towards 35000
Entry - 34592
Stop loss - 34500 ( I would like to see 2hr close below this level)
First target - 34750
Final Target - 35000
Please let me know your thoughts. Thank you
DOW JONES Resistance breakouts can lead as high as 35500Dow Jones / US30 is trading inside a 4 month Channel Up and today crossed above Resistance A (34575).
The attempts have been on the Support of the 4hour MA50.
The formation looks like the June 2nd- 5th breakout, which peaked at +5.75% from its bottom.
Apply careful confirmed buying. Short term target 34800. If Resistance B breaks, buy again and target 35500 (Resistance C).
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DOW JONES getting closer to Resistance Zone for a technical sellIt's been a while since we looked into Dow Jones (DJI) and made the bottom buy on the Channel Up last Higher Low (chart below):
Right now the index is rising after a rebound on a Double Bottom on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The dominant pattern is a Channel Up and the secondary a Diverging Channel Up (dotted lines) that forms a Higher Highs rejection zone within Resistance 1 (34530) and its top. We will look for a sell on the next candle inside it (ideally with the 1D RSI on its Resistance Zone) and target the bottom of the Channel Up at 33650 near Support 1.
If however the price breaks above Resistance 2 (34950) and the MACD maintains the Bullish Cross it is forming today, we will open a buy and target 33500 (just below Resistance 3).
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DOW JONES: pulling back to the 1D MA50 again.Dow Jones has had a technical HH rejection at the top of the dotted Channel Up and just as quickly, the price is approaching the 1D MA50, which offered support on the June 26th rebound. The 1D technicals are neutral (RSI = 48.089, MACD = 156.460, ADX = 28.256) indicating that the 1D MA50 is now the pivot level: as long as it holds, expect the price to bounce on it again, so we will buy and target the R2 (TP = 34,95) but if it closes a 1D candle under it, sell and target the bottom of the dotted Channel Up (TP = 33.000).
The strongest buy opportunity on a four month basis is when the RSI hits its HL trendline.
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DOW JONES is aiming at a new Low unless the Resistance breaks.Dow Jones is trading inside the corrective wave of the long term Channel Up.
As long as Resistance A (34575) holds, sell and target the Channel's bottom and 1day MA100 at 33500.
If the Resistance A breaks, buy and target 34850.
For a long term buy, always look to buy inside the 4hour RSI's buy zone, which is on oversold territory.
Previous chart:
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DOW JONES Take profit soon. Pull back expected.Dow Jones is almost on Resistance (1) at 34530 with the top of the dotted Channel Up just over it at 34700.
That is a level where the buy profits from the MA50 (1d) buys should be realized and then wait for a break out or pull back in order to continue buying.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell within 34600 - 34700.
2. Buy if the (1d) candle closes over 34700.
3. Buy on the MA200 (1d) at 33500.
Targets:
1. 33500 (MA200 1d).
2. 35400 (near the top of the yellow long term Channel Up).
3. 34900 (Resistance 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is posting a sequence similar to the February top. That started a significant medium term correction.
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Notes:
Past trading plan: