Sell setupTrade: Sell at 32975 or higher
Stop: 33150
Notes
The model:
The Ingenuity Trading Model is a Geometric Markov Model with specific inputs related to Price, Time, Volume , and Volatility. The model attempts to predict local minimums and maximums in price on a daily and weekly basis. A fancy way of saying a trading system that detects specific patterns in price, time, volume, and volatility and indicates whether to buy or sell.
On winning trades after 1 day take at least ⅓ of the position off and move stop to breakeven
YM1
DOW JONES: Ranged until it breaks the 4H MA200 and turns bullishDow Jones remains neutral on the 1D technicals (RSI = 47.239, MACD = -227.510, ADX = 31.577) as the price has been mostly ranging for 2 weeks between the 32,600 Symmetrical Resistance and 31,800 Symmetrical Support.
Todays rejection should give one more pull back to the Symmetrical Support if the 4H MA50 breaks. On the other hand, a full 4H candle closing over the Symmetrical Resistance, will most likely cross over the 4H MA200 too and target long term P1 at 33,450.
Prior idea:
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YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 27
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 27
Support long at 31747 was good.
Note the trendline resistance at the moment.
I'll be back in April, keep profits and rest from cold.
Possible scenarios:
1) Short on reject of 32789
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high (some supply present)
Daily: Ave vol up bar close toward high
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
34689 32789
30513 28635
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Have a profitable week ahead.
DOW JONES has started the new bullish wave.This is basically to last week's buy signal at the bottom:
As you see Dow Jones (DJI) made a new Lower Low (bottom) on the 4-month Channel Down and broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) again. The move is supported by a Higher Lows Zone (as is the RSI), similar to the previous Channel Down Low in late December. With the Fed Rate Decision tomorrow always unleashing volatility, we can see one last pull-back and then rebound towards the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and our 33100 Target.
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DOW JONES Huge Inverse Head and Shoulders aiming at the 2022 HigDow Jones/ US30 is rebounding after approaching the 1week MA200. This is a major Support that held on June 2022.
That low can be viewed as the Left Shoulder of a giant Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern and the current low as its Right Shoulder.
Target the bottom of Support Zone A at 35350.
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YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 20
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 20
During the week, the formation of A-A1 rotation offered rotational
play opportunity.
Demand has built up, with weekly bar showing loss of selling
momentum. But it takes time for the vessel to turn, so wait for
support to manifest before going long
Possible scenarios:
1) Rotational play between 31750 - 32600 (approx 850pts range)
2) Continuation long = long on retracement, to test 33590
3) Short if 31747 was broken through and becomes resistance
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Higher vol, narrower spread down bar close off low
= reduced downward momentum
Daily: Ave vol down bar close toward off (non-trend changing)
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
34689 32789 31747
31097 30513
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
DOW JONES: Rejection on the 4H MA50 keeping it neutralDow Jones found Support on the S1 Zone as we called last week (see idea at the end) and closed 4 straight candles inside it. The 1D time-frame remains technically red (RSI = 37.784, MACD = -381.660, ADX = 48.656) and the rejection on the 4H MA50 is keeping the price at bay. This appears to be like the rejection on December 21st 2022, which kept the price inside an Ascending Triangle before a rise to the top of the Channel Down. We will maintain our bullish persctive within this patternand target P1 (TP = 33,450).
Prior call:
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DOW JONES is forming a bottom, aiming at the 1D MA50 again.Dow Jones (DJI) is trading sideways for the 4th straight 1D candle on the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Down. As the 1D RSI touched the 30.00 oversold level and rebounded, similar to the September 27 bottom, while the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crossed below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) to form the 1st Bearish Cross since that bottom, we treat this as a strong medium-term buy opportunity, targeting the 1D MA50 and 33100. We need a closing above the 1D MA50 to justify further uptrend as that level rejected the index on March 06.
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YM, DOW JONES, US30 Daily analysisThis is a Daily analysis of both BUY and SELL Scenarios of the Dow Jones:
Buy:
-Buy Opportunity after retesting the old Support(Nov 4th, 22)
Sell:
-If Market breaks 31700 it's highly Possible to drop and retest 30100 Again.
Happy Trading
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 13
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 13
Short on reject of 32789 offered very good returns for those who were able to trade
during the US afternoon hours.
Ease of movement to the downside observed.
Possible scenarios:
1) Short on test and reject of 32789, possible target 31100
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol down bar close toward low (non-trend changing)
Daily: Low vol E=R down bar (non-trend changing)
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
34689 32789
30513 28635
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
DOW JONES: November Support and bottom of 4month Channel hit.Dow Jones is officially oversold on the 1D time frame (RSI = 29.490, MACD = -335.510, ADX = 43.978) with the RSI being that low for the first time since September 30th 2022. By hitting also the S1 Zone and the bottom of the Channel Down, it becomes a buy opportunity for us, TP = 33,450 (P1).
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DOW JONES Any doubt we are completely off Bear limits anymore?This Dow Jones (DJI) from the start of the 2022 Bear Cycle until today with the 2007 - 2009 (Housing Crisis) Bear Cycle fractal plotted on it. As you see up until the mid October bottom, the two sequences practically traded in an identical way. Since then however, Dow has completely diverged from the 07/09 fractal and despite the late weakness, it is hard to claim that we are still in Bear Cycle territory.
Is there any doubt we are off Bear limits anymore?
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DOW JONES The opportunity to buy again is NOWWe have been following this Triangle pattern on Dow Jones (DJI) trading within what we called the 'High Volatility region' since last year, with are last buy signal given 1 week ago:
The 33400 target was reached and yesterday's rejection on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) is providing us with a new opportunity to buy. We have a confirmed Triple Bottom ranging from November 09 2022 and today's low makes a Higher Lows sequence similar to what followed after the December 20 2022 Low on the 32480 Support. Even the 4H CCI is on the exact same levels as December.
Target 1 is again 33400 and Target 2 is 34350 assuming the index breaks and closes a 1D candle above the Pivot Zone and then re-tests it successfully as a Support.
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DOW JONES: Hit all of our targets. Expect a retrace.As Dow Jones hit the 4H MA200 today turning 4H technicals overbought (RSI = 71.290, MACD = 117.130, ADX = 48.966) it also achieved the two targets we set last week:
Our whole plan was based on the huge demand on the November Support and the fact that the previous drop to that Support was very similar to February's. If this continues to hold, then we are at the part of the sequence as denoted by the circles. A retrace to Fibonacci 0.382 level would be very reasonable technically and once the 4H RSI turns neutral again below 55.000, we will buy again and target Fibonacci 0.786 (TP = 34,050).
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dowjones 4 hour say = above low,looking for buy when you see pinbar on 15-60-2240-1440min chart ,pick buy and put SL in pinbar low,uunderstand?
hold your buys minimum to fibo 50% (dont close soon)
if you have old buy ,dont fear ,dow will back to high ,but put hedge sellstop in low ok? (if it open,never close it in low ,even in 10.000$ profit(ca go downer and margincall you ),wait dow goes down and back ,up trend apear,then close sell,then on high close buys)
alert= dow will go to 35800 ,be carefull from sell 100% put sl
good luck
DOW JONES This is the bottom. Fractals from 2022 confirm.Not surprisingly to us, Dow Jones has stayed inside the High Volatility region that we have identified back in late November:
The 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) has supported twice already since November 10 and is now going for its 3rd hold. If we pay a closer attention to the 1D RSI we see that it has printed the very same pattern it made on all Lows during the 2022 Bear Cycle. That is basically 3 occasions. The RSI is very close to the 30.00 oversold barrier and as the 1D MA100 supports, it makes it the most optimal long-term buy level on a 2-month horizon.
Even though it has been mostly trading sideways within the High Volatility Zone, on RSI terms, it is comparable to all 2022 Lows that bottomed out on an oversold 30.00 1D RSI and started an aggressive rally in the form of a Rising Wedge.
Our Targets are: short-term = 33400 (Pivot Zone), medium-term = 34400 (February 14 Resistance), long-term 35500 (April 21 Resistance).
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DOW JONES bottomed out on a 4 month Support!Dow Jones almost hit Support (2) at 32470 a level that worked out twice since November 9th 2022, starting strong rallies to 34390 (Resistance 1).
The same Declining Support on price - Rising Support on the RSI (4h) Bullish Divergence was formed on the December 20th bottom.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 33050 (MA50 (4h))
2. 33500 (MA200 (4h) and bottom of the Pivot Zone.
3. 34300 (under Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The MA50 (1d) moves parallel with Support (2) and essentially has provided the same level of support pressure as that level. Trend changes long term if it breaks.
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DOW JONES: Bottom similar to December. Buy opportunity.Dow Jones is technically heavily bearish on both the 4H and 1D time-frames (RSI = 34.017, MACD = -241.550, ADX = 52.078) but the 4H RSI has been rising for the past week, despite the corrective wave on the index. This price action is similar to the late December that ended with a bottom formation. Even the patterns that preceded this are similar.
We are turning long again on Dow, targeting both the 4H MA50 (TP = 33,200) and 4H MA200 (TP = 33,600).
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