DOW JONES Aggressive bullish reversal expectedDow Jones (DJI) broke below its Pivot Zone and Higher Lows trend-line and as per our strategy published 2 weeks ago, we took that break-out sell opportunity:
With the 4H RSI though printing Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows (i.e. a Bullish Divergence) and the price approaching the 32480 Support level and the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), which both provided Support and started aggressive rebounds on November 09 2022 and December 20 2022, Dow is turning into a medium-term (at least) buy opportunity again.
In fact the very same RSI Bullish Divergence formed the December 20 Low. It is important to add that this Low was formed after a 4H Death Cross, a pattern that we already formed again 2 days ago.
We are buyers again on Dow, targeting the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Then we will either wait for a pull-back or buy when the price breaks above the Pivot Zone and re-tests it as Support, in similar fashion as on January 06 2023 and January 23 2023. Long-term target 34300.
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YM1
DOW JONES Rectangle for short term. Channel Up for long term.Dow is in ranging mode on the short term inside a Rectangle. The 4hour MA50 is almost at the middle, so crossing above it is a long signal: Target 34250. Below it is a short signal: Target 33550.
On the long term the structure remains a Channel Up, in fact the price came very close last week to its bottom. If the price breaks the bottom it is a sell: Target 32965. If the Channel holds, it is a buy: Target 34750.
Observe how the 4hour RSI shows well enough the best entries for the Channel Up and for the Restangle alike.
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YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 FEB 20
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 FEB 20
Finally we see some movement from Dow.
34605-34432 rotational play based on 06 Feb's analysis garnered.
Possible scenarios:
1) Rotational play: Trades can be executed at boundary of rotation
range 34605 / 32789.
Note: 34605-34432: If market trades toward the upper boundary =
possibility of breakout
2) Rotational breakout/breakdown:
- If price breakout, long when price retraces and finds support
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol down bar close below middle = minor supply
Daily: Ave vol up bar, demand overcoming supply = demand
H4: Ave vol up bar close toward high = minor demand
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35750 35228 34432-34605
33624 33037- 32789
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ym willl riseAs you can see here I recommend buying ym.
place the srop loss and take profit as shown in the chart.
DOW JONES Take advantage of this excellent channel!Dow Jones is trading inside a Channel Up for the past three weeks. With the use of the Fibonacci Channel we clearly see the heavy varience levels within 0.236 - 0.786. We will buy low and sell high for as long as the pattern remains valid.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current 4H candle.
2. Sell at 34300.
3. Buy at 33900.
4. Sell at 34400.
Targets:
1. 34300.
2. 33900.
3. 34000.
4. 33950.
Tips:
1. The 4hour RSI is inside a range that matches perfectly the highs and lows of the Channel. Use it for additional confirmation of entries/ exits.
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DOW JONES: Simple buy low, sell high inside the Channel Up.Dow is bullish on both the 4H (RSI = 52.865, MACD = 54.270, ADX = 29.792) and the 1D (RSI = 53.777, MACD = 101.160, ADX = 20.876) time frames but not on a wide margin. This is because it has been on a rather controlled rise inside a Channel Up since December 20th (only broken once).
For the past 3 weeks every 4H MA200 pull back has been the most optimal buy entry, so use the next one near 33,750, as close to the RSI's range bottom as possible, and TP = 34,600.
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DOW JONES Still ranged. Keep scalping for maximum profits.Dow Jones (DJI) followed the exact trading plan that we published last Wednesday as it rebounded on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and today reached the Resistance Zone of 34300 - 34370(August 16 and January 15 Highs respectively). This keeps it neutral as we expected within the rough 33640 - 34180 Scalping Range:
The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has assumed the role of the Pivot and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) that of the Support (all candles closed above it). Our short-term trading plan remains scalping this range for as long as the price remains/ re-enters inside it. On the more medium-term, above the green Pivot Zone we are buyers targeting 34300, while below the Higher Lows trend-line we are sellers targeting 32700 (above the 32480 Support). Similarly, we will take the buy break-out if the price breaks the 34370 January 15 High and target the 34910 December 13 High.
Keep in mind that this Higher Lows trend-line is what helped us take this accurate buy entry 4 weeks ago as you can see on the chart below:
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Dow 30 - Potential Upward MovementDow 30 EMA about to cross HA Trend Follow updwards. Exit at upper BB
DOW JONES Scalping range emerged and our medium-term plan.Dow Jones (DJI) got rejected yesterday following Powell's speech as the Resistance Zone of 34300 - 34370 held (August 16 and January 15 Highs respectively), we expect it to turn neutral for a while and trade sideways within the rough 33640 - 34180 Scalping Range illustrated on the chart.
The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has assumed the role of the Pivot and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) that of the Support. Our short-term trading plan is to scalp this range for as long as the price remains/ re-enters inside it. On the more medium-term, above the green Pivot Zone we are buyers targeting 34300, while below the Higher Lows trend-line we are sellers targeting 32700 (above the 32480 Support). Similarly, we will take the buy break-out if the price breaks the 34370 January 15 High and target the 34910 December 13 High.
Keep in mind that this Higher Lows trend-line is what helped us take this accurate buy entry 3 weeks ago as you can see on the chart below:
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DOW JONES: Triangle break showing the directionDow Jones is supported on its 1D MA50 but the Triangle pattern since December is keeping it neutral. This is evident both on the 4H (RSI = 45.787) as well as the 1D technicals (RSI = 50.080, MACD = 100.970, ADX = 28.781). As all candles, even the two instances that broke above, have closed inside the Triangle, we will go long or short when it breaks out and closes.
The Resistance and Support levels/ zones are clear on the chart. A price cross closing over the Triangle is a buy (TP = 35,350) just under R1 and a price closing under the Triangle is a sell (T{ = 32,550) just over S1.
Pay attention to the 1D RSI which is within its own Triangle. A breaking may be a leading indicator to the price break out.
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YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 FEB 06
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 FEB 06
No trades taken for Dow last week as price stayed away from the
boundary of the rotation zone. We now have a rotation within
a rotation zone 34432-33624 :)
This is about 800pt range.
A modest upward trendline has formed, but but but demand is
is showing effort no result.
The 800pt range, although attractive, will unlikely be easy to trade.
Possible scenarios:
1) Rotational play: Trades can be executed at boundary of rotation
range 34605 / 32789.
- 34605-34432: Consideration - will market trace Nasdaq & SnP
for a breakout?
- Short if rejected at 34605-34432
2) Rotational breakout/breakdown:
- If price breakout, long when price retraces and finds support
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol down bar close in middle = indecisive
Daily: Higher vol down bar close of low = some demand
H4: Ultra hi vol level bar, S>D = Supply coming in
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35750 35228 34432-34605
33624 33037- 32789
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DOW JONES A mix of patterns ahead of the Fed!The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has made a strong medium-term rise since our buy signal 12 days ago:
Still within the High Volatility region, hence neutral long-term, the price is rising today after finding Support within the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). The medium-term pattern is a Triangle, the short-term a Channel Up.
However the price needs to break above the 2 day Channel Down (red) in order to test the top of the Triangle and if broken extend the Channel Up into the medium-term to test the 34910 December High.
A break below the Channel Up, should extend the red Channel Down towards the bottom of the Triangle again.
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DOW JONES: Double test on the major Lower Highs. Critical.Dow Jones made a double hit on the Major LH trend line created on the December 13th top. So far it has failed to close above it, which is a bearish sign. Both 1D and 4H are neutral (RSI = 53.203, MACD = 57.710, ADX = 22.013).
Our usual approach with candle closes suggests that one above the Major LH is bullish (TP 34,490 R1) and below the 4H MA50 bearish (TP 33,450).
Previous analysis:
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YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 JAN 29
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 JAN 29
No trades taken for Dow last week as price stayed away from the
boundary of the rotation zone. Market crawled up on declining
volume, a sign of weakness.
Possible scenarios:
1) Rotational play: Trades can be executed at boundary of rotation
range 34605 / 32789.
- Long if supported at 32789-33037
- Short if rejected at 34605-34432
2) Rotational breakout/breakdown:
- If price breakout, long when price retraces and finds support
- If price breakdown, short when price retraces and is rejected
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = No demand
Daily: Low vol up bar close off high = No demand
H4: Ultra High vol up bar close off high, followed by ave vol
down bar = weakness confirmed
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35750 35228 34432-34605
33037- 32789 30513 28635
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DOW JONES Time to test the December 13 High.Dow Jones (DJI) held the dashed Higher Lows trend-line and rebounded, as we outlined on our last week analysis:
That was on the 4H time-frame, now we zoom out to 1D where the index broke again above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but after last weeks 34,390 rejection, it remains within the High Volatility region.
As long as the 1D candles close above the (dashed) Higher Lows trend-line, we are expecting not just a re-test of the 34300 August 16 High but also a direct hit on the 34910 December 13 High. The reason is that, as we mentioned last week, the current price action based on RSI terms, looks very similar to that of October 03 - 21.
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YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 JAN 23
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 JAN 23
Last week, Dow Scenario1 rejection of 34605 short yielded 900pts
(trail stop TP).
With this rejection, DOW now exhibits rotation behavior
34605 - 32789.
Possible scenarios:
1) Rotational play: Trades can be executed at boundary of rotation
range 34605 / 32789.
- Long if supported at 32789
- Short if rejected at 34605
2) Rotational breakout/breakdown:
- If price breakout, long when price retraces and finds support
- If price breakdown, short when price retraces and is rejected
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Low vol wide spread S>D bar = weakness
Daily: Ave vol up bar close at high = No demand
H4: High vol up bar closed off high = minor weakness
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35750 35228 34416-34605
32789 30513
28635
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
Aspects to Market Making Sentiment IIA period of low spread and low volume can indicate a lack of liquidity in the market. This can be caused by a variety of factors, such as a lack of investor interest in the security or derivative, or a lack of market participants willing to trade at the current bid and ask prices.
In this case, a market maker may choose to adjust its strategy to manage the risk of holding a large position in the security or derivative. One strategy that the market maker may use is hedging, which involves taking offsetting positions in other securities or derivatives to reduce the risk of loss from unexpected market movements.
For example, if the market maker has a large position in a stock and is concerned about a potential price decline, the market maker may use options or short selling to hedge against this risk.
Alternatively, the market maker may choose to hold onto its position and wait for market conditions to improve. This may involve adjusting the bid and ask prices to attract more buyers or sellers, or reducing the size of the position to manage the risk of holding a large position in an illiquid market.
The market maker's decision to hedge or hold the position will depend on the market maker's risk appetite, the specific market conditions, and the market maker's own outlook on the future movements of the security or derivative.
In summary, a period of low spread and low volume can indicate a lack of liquidity in the market, in this case, a market maker may choose to adjust its strategy to manage the risk of holding a large position, one strategy is hedging,
which involves taking offsetting positions in other securities or derivatives to reduce the risk of loss from unexpected market movements. The market maker may also choose to hold onto its position and wait for market conditions to improve,
adjusting the bid and ask prices to attract more buyers or sellers, or reducing the size of the position to manage the risk of holding a large position in an illiquid market. The decision to hedge or hold the position
will depend on the market maker's risk appetite, the specific market conditions, and the market maker's own outlook on the future movements of the security or derivative.
DOW JONES: Oversold. A buy opportunity.Dow Jones turned red on the 1D time frame (RSI = 42.944, MACD = 52.430, ADX = 23.942) but oversold on the 4H (RSI = 24.370, MACD = -196.780, ADX = 55.260), which is the exact conditions we've been eyeing for a buy entry.
The sharp drop that followed the 4H MA50 breach closed on the HL trend line. The pattern is a Rising Megaphone and right now the price sits at the very bottom. With the oversold 4H RSI reversing, this is a similar buying opportunity as the last leg of the previous Rising Megaphone on December 6th/7th. We have denoted S1, a pivot (P1) and R1, which is the target. A +4.30% rise is common on this pattern, it suits ideally the 34,490 target.
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DOW JONES The High volatility zone continues to pay offThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) followed our previous call (almost) 3 weeks ago to perfection as after trading within the Triangle, it broke to the upside and hit the 34300 target:
The strong rejection of this week simply validates the argument that we've made since November, that the blue zone will be a High Volatility region for Dow as it is a confluence of major Support (Bear Cycle Lower Highs trend-line), Resistance (34300 August 16 High) and MA levels (1D MA300 and 1D MA50 (yellow and blue trend-lines respectively)).
It is now testing the (dashed) Higher Lows trend-line, which if successful can make another trip to 34300. But if it doesn't hold, the real medium-term Support Zone is within the former Lower Highs trend-line and (mostly) the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has already held once successfully on December 20. A break below targets the 31725 Support (1) first and (on a much less likely scenario) the 30100 Support (2) in extension.
But why give away our 1D RSI blue-print and the symmetricality of each bullish - bearish phase that has been holding exceptionally well since the February 24 2022 bottom? As we explained in detail in our previous analysis, each bearish phase has been around 250 (4H) candles i.e. roughly 60 days. Considering that this is not a Bear Cycle bearish leg as it is obviously more sideways than making Lower Lows, we should be seeing an end of this phase by the 2nd week of February, if not earlier.
Based on the 1D RSI though, it has already started to form the bottoming process (green rectangle) as shown by the previous sequences. As a result, investors should be more patient with such drops and willing to buy the pull-back at this stage, than looking to short to Lower Lows.
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Weekly levels update (Week 3)Bull traps are back this week. With bulls failed at 34460 and 34105, the Dow is heading down to 33498 until new traps are spotted.
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 JAN 15YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 JAN 15
Dow was ranging mostly for the past 2 weeks. A
As market approaches previous rejection area, keep
stops tight. No demand on all 3 TF, temporary weakness
may be expected. Possibility of short on rejection
if market crawls upward and is rejected at higher
levels.
Possible scenarios:
1) Short on rejection of 35228 / 34605
2) Long if test and accept at previous rotation 33663
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Low vol up bar close at high = No Demand
Daily: Low vol level bar close toward high = No Demand
H4: Low vol narrow spread up bar close off high
= No demand
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35750 35228 34416-34605
33663 32789 30513
28635
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Have a profitable week ahead.
DOW JONES: Holding above the 1D MA50.Dow Jones closed Friday clearly above the 1D MA50 (blue), switching its 1D technicals back to neutral/ bullish (RSI = 54.657, MACD = 2.080, ADX = 14.593). Following the Golden Cross on December 14h, the index is well supporting both on the former Lower Highs Resistance of the Bear Market as well as a Higher Lows line that started on the June 17th Low.
The latter fits the support of a potential Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern that Dow may be trading in. As long as the 1D MA200 (orange) holds, the index targets the 35,400 - 35,800 Resistance Zone. If the 1D MA200 breaks, it targets the 30,200 - 29,700 Support Zone.
It is important to mention that the 1D MACD is on a Bullish Cross, historically a bullish medium-term signal.
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