YM1
NYSE Index Bear Case.Good evening,
This post is part of a series of requests i recently received.
The request was: "What is your bearish projection on the US stonk market".
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Some may ask,
what is the NYSE Index?
👇
The NYSE Composite is a stock market index covering all common stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange,
including American depositary receipts, real estate investment trusts, tracking stocks, and foreign listings.
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My estimated top for the New York Stock Exchange Index sits at $15,546 ~ $18,545
High probability target = $16,600
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My estimated bottom on this one is roughly between $12,293 ~ $10,064
High probability target = $11,319
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Dow Jones Bear Case.gm,
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The highest request over the last few weeks = "elo, what's your bear case on the stonk market?".
Well, you guys asked for it...
So I'm here to give you just that.
A face ripping,
soul crushing,
heart wrenching dip;
which takes the average american's 401k,
and turns it into a 201k.
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Tuesday November 29th 2022 ~ December 21st 2022 = my calculated top.
Estimated to sit between 34,329 ~ 36,697.
.
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Friday May 12th 2023 ~ Tuesday October 24th = my calculated bottom.
Estimated to sit between 27,317 ~ 23,620
.
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🔺
dowjones 4hour : all scenario on dow 1-70% go down and touch support and go up to fibo161
2-30% go down break support and go downer
above green arrow after pinbar come on 1hour or 4hour or daily chart we must buy Sl: pinbar low and hold to new high ok?
if you have old sell,you must close all or hedge them in fibo50 33760-33770...dont forget dow,index, dax sp500 and gold love buy and uptrend so sell on them is very very dangerous..check weekly chart exactly
note: as predict 10 days ago in low dow can go to 35000 even 3600 so be careful from sell and 90% looking for buy
ALERT: END OF YEAR UP TREND RALLY ON INDEX LIKE DAX NASDAQ SP500 AND DOW CAN START
good luck
DOW JONES Too close to the August 16 High!It has been almost 2 weeks since Dow Jones (DJI) broke above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Bearish Megaphone pattern that it has been trading in since the start of the year and the beginning of the 2022 correction. At the same time it broke above the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line), which as we've mentioned numerous times was the barrier for a long-term bullish trend restoration:
The index is now very close to making another major bullish break-out as it is very close to the 34300 Resistance (1) which was formed by the August 16 High, which was rejected on the (former) Lower Highs trend-line and 1D MA300. If broken it will be the first time in 2022 that Dow Jones will break a Lower High. In this case, we will automatically target 35550 (Resistance 2), which was formed by the April 21 (Lower) High.
If the price gets rejected though, the index should seek the short-term Supports of 1) the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), which during the July - August and March - April counter rallies was the supporting level (when broken, the downtrends started) and 2) the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which held as Support for the first time in a year on November 10. Keep in mind that during Dow's bull rallies, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is typically the Support.
On the downside, watch the 1W RSI, which has been glued to the top of the Channel Up in the past two weeks. Failure to break above it, should accelerate the sell sentiment towards the 1D MA50. The trigger for that can be a Bearish Cross on the 1D MACD, which is very close to be formed. All prior Bearish Cross in 2022 have kickstarted major sell-offs.
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Is this rally a bear trap or a resuming bull? This is what we will be discussing today, and we are going to study both its technical and fundamental reasons and subsequently to derive why it is a bear trap? Or could it be a new bull in the making?
I hope this tutorial will be helpful, in enabling you to read into the market with greater clarity.
I have started a trading series, purpose for trading into longevity. Last week was on Buy Strategy, today on Sell Strategy. These strategies shared, they all can be applied to most markets and in different time frames.
Content:
a) The sell strategy – applicable to both:
· Long-term – Fundamental & Technical
· Short-term – Fundamental & Technical
b) Bull or Bear?
Some important dates:
14 Dec 21 - Fed: "Inflation no longer transitory"
10 Nov 22 – Oct CPI @ 7.7%, below expectation of 8.2%
Micro E-mini Dow Jones Futures
Minimum fluctuation
1 index point = $0.50
10 = $5
100 = $50
Of course if you need something more sizable, there is the E-mini Dow Jones Futures.
You can refer to the links below, you will find some of my past video tutorials, on how I time the different markets.
As time passes, you will see how nicely most markets trend along our analysis then.
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DOWJONES 4hour : be careful from sell , upper target is 360002 scenario on dow possible
1- if it can break high door will open to 36000
2-in bad scenario with bad news it can go down to fibo50 then start wave2 of uptrend WE MUST BUY IT ABOVE GREEN ARROW AFTER PINBAR APPEAR IN 1HOUR,4HOUR,DAILY CHART and hold it 7-8 day to 36000 area
if you have old sell, close them soon as soon or hedge them with higher size: 1.5*total sell size
ALERT : NEW YEAR WILD RALLY CAN START SO DONT PICK SELL ,LOOKING FOR BUY dont forget like gold DOW love buy and upside trend
good luck
DOW JONES Holding the 1W MA50 could repeat the 2016/17 rally!This is the price action of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) since the 2008/09 Bear Cycle of the Housing Crisis. On the log 1W chart, we can fit it within a Channel Up pattern, with the January 2022 top as its latest Higher High. As you see there is considerable room to fall and touch the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up but on the Sep 26 - Oct 10 1W candles, the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) acted as Support and pushed the price back above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
It is important to mention that while the candle action was on Lower Lows, the 1W RSI was on Higher Lows, i.e. on a Bullish Divergence. The last time we had all this conditions fulfilled together, was during the August 2015 - February 2016 correction. As you see, the RSI was on Higher Lows while the price Double Bottomed, found Support on the 1W MA200 and rebounded back above the 1W MA50. The 1W MA50 then turned into a Support and never broke and that gave way to the very strong 2016/17 rally.
You can see that its bars pattern fractal (black) fits almost perfectly on the late 2021/2022 price action. As a result, we could expect a gradual recovery into a strong rally in Q3 2023, especially if the 1W MA50 holds as a Support. If not, the 2022 Channel Down (red) can give more Lower Lows until Dow hits the bottom of its 14 year old Channel Up.
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DOW JONES Will a Rate Cut do more harm than good to stocks?Bold question and should certainly raise some eyebrows but let's look at the complete picture. This chart displays Dow Jones (DJI) and the Federal Reserve Interest Rate (blue trend-line) on the 1M (monthly) time-frame.
I will make it quick to save us time and then each person can individually make their own conclusions from the chart. The combination of the Fed raising the rates since the start of the with Dow dropping, hasn't been seen often historically on this data set dating back to June 1954. In fact historically, Dow (stock markets in general) tend to rise along with rates. Some times (4 in history) when the Rate Cut happens, Dow drops as well. Most of the times the stock rally continued without a major drop even after the Rate Cuts.
Basically the only time on this data-set that resembles today (assuming the Fed pauses or cuts in 2023) is 1969/70, 1972-74 and 1983/84, with the latter largely associated with Fed Chair Volcker monetary practices. During those periods, Dow started falling as the Rate was rising and then dropped after the Rate cut.
Do you think we are repeating such a period? Will a Rate Cut in the near future do more harm than good to the stock market?
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DOW JONES broke above all Bear Market barriers!The Dow Jones index (DJI) broke last week, following the impressive drop on monthly inflation, above both the Lower Highs trend-line dating back to the January 05 market high and the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line), which was the level that rejected the previous Lower High on August 16.
We've been discussing the importance of this level as a Rejection Zone for over a month and didn't hesitate to claim that a break above the 1D MA300 would restore the long-term bullish trend:
We are not backing down from this claim. The continuous monthly drop on the CPI is lifting market hopes again for a looser monetary policy but technically, there are still some key levels to consider. The price is approaching the 34300 Resistance (1), which is essentially the August 16 High. Right now it appears that we are inside a no-trade zone (blue triangle) where any direction is possible.
A closing above the 34300 Resistance (1) would be a bullish break-out signal targeting the 35540 Resistance (2), which is practically the April 21 Lower High. On the other hand, a break below the 1D MA300 and below the former Lower Highs, should seek the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but more importantly the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Supports, a usual buyers accumulation level during Bull Runs.
P.S. Watch the huge bullish divergence on the RSI 1W time-frame.
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DowJones 33800 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnical & Trade View
Dow Jones (emini futures contract)
33800 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 33600
Technicals
Primary support is 33360
Primary pattern objective is 34400
Acceptance above 34000 next pattern confirmation
Acceptance below 33100 opens a test of 32900
20 Day VWAP bullish , 5 Day VWAP bullish
DOW JONES Critical level separating the Bull from Bear Market!It hasn't been more than a month ago (October 10) when we first posted the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line) as our long-term target for Dow Jones (DJI):
The index came just a few points below it and so far we see a minor pull-back and consolidation, attributed both to profit taking as well as risk aversion before the important CPI report on Thursday.
As mentioned on the previous analysis, the range Dow is currently in is the technical Rejection Zone that has formed all previous Lower Highs of the 2022 Bear Cycle Megaphone pattern, all of which initiated massive selling legs to new Lower Lows. Even though the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is the current short-term Support, typically breaking below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) confirms the downtrend. Another strong confirmation of the bearish legs is when the MACD on the 1D time-frame makes a Bearish Cross.
The 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line) is practically what separates the Bull from the Bear Cycle. It is no surprise that since the August 16 Lower High, the 1D MA300 is trading parallel to the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 2022 Bearish Megaphone. A closing above it effectively confirms the shift to a long-term bullish trend with first target 34300 (August 16 High) and second the 35550 (April 21 High).
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US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 NOV 07 YM1!
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 NOV 07
Hope you found our analysis from 17 Oct profitable as you saw
Scenario 2 Signs of Breakout being played out.
Possible scenarios:
1) Continuation long
2) Temporary short if 33326 / 32510 is resisted
3) Long if test of breakout 30513 is supported
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35750 34807 34027
33326 32510 31793
30513 28635
Weekly: Supply > Demand high vol down bar = possible weakness
Daily: UT + down bar + High vol up bar close off high = minor weakness
H4: UT + UT + ND = weakness
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
RTY Daily MFI overboughtSomething I noticed while flipping through some charts, RTY1! daily MFI is overbought along with GM, PCAR, YM1! (Dow futures), Dow components like WMT, CAT, YNH, etc along with XLF (financial ETF).
Definitely not chasing a Fed pump even if my 3 hr indicators show oversold. My favorite stocks are overbought, that's a signal to take a pause. Will be shorting when 3 hr indicators go overbought.
DowJones Targeting A 34000 TestTechnical & Trade View
Dow Jones (emini futures continuous contract)
Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 32200
Technicals
Intraday 32200 is primary support
Primary pattern objective is 34000
Acceptance above 33050 next pattern confirmation
Failure below 32200 opens a test of 31900
20 Day VWAP bullish , 5 Day VWAP bullish
Notes
33240 symmetry swing resistance long positions should be risk free if tested
Headline risk FOMC decision
Prefer to play bullish reversal patterns at support on H4/H1 timeframes
DOW JONES biggest monthly rally since 1976! Bear Market over?The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) closed the October with its biggest monthly gain since January 1976, rising by +14%! The huge green monthly candle suceeded at (marginally) breaking and closing above the 1M MA10 (blue trend-line) for the first time since January 2022, which was the All Time High and practically the start of the current inflation led Bear Cycle. At the same time, the 1M RSI is close to testing its MA.
Just to have some perspective, the previous Bear Cycle of the 2008/09 Housing Crisis, never saw a 1M candle break above the 1M MA10 nor the 1M RSI break or simply come that close to its MA. Can a break above it signal the end of the current Bear Market? A break above the 1M MA20 (green trend-line) should practically confirm it.
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E-MINI DOW JONES ($5) FUTURESE-MINI DOW JONES ($5) FUTURES
A strong rise to the strongest goals and whoever has made a strong correction is likely to continue the rise and there is also a high likelihood that it will descend into the strong areas of demand.
Market leadership firmly switched from nasdaq/s&p to Russel/Dow 2022 is story in change in market leadership.. Dow and Russel new leaders. Pairs trade lookback.
DowJones 32499 Target Achieved, What Next?Technical & Trade View
Dow Jones (emini futures continuous contract)
Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 32400
Option Expiry:
32499 Target Achieved…New Pattern Emerging
Technicals
Intraday 32400 is primary support
Primary pattern objective is 33500
Acceptance above 33050 next pattern confirmation
Failure below 32200 opens a test of 31900
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
MYM Showing Signs of Bull Trap | Market Structure"Show me the weekly charts and I'll show you the news"
For MYM/ Dow Jones we have a clear market structure being formed with lower highs and lower lows with a distinct trend line. There is still bearish news with inflation until December at least for the feds, the market is showing signs that we are preparing to go short for the next month or so.
If we close Friday with a wick on the weekly, prepare to enjoy some nice trends that shall sink like the Titanic over the next few weeks.
YM1! - Weekly Market Update, 10/31Dow Futures closed a hair above it's 200 day SMA and approaching KEY overhead resistance currently located @ 33,350 this past week.
Price either needs to push higher in order to break the down trend or fall here to continue the bear market.
DOW 4HOUR: we can sell now as predict 3days ago dow touch fibo 61 it is so clear dow dax and many index have sell now but daily chart trend can go to 35000
if you have old sell you must close above 31250
good luck
DOW JONES on an aggressive rally towards the 1D MA200!It was 2 weeks ago when we made a case for a medium-term buy on the Dow Jones index (DJI), against popular belief, as we had early signs that the index made a June 17 type bottom and was about to repeat the June-Aug rebound:
Our view has been confirmed so far and following the 1D RSI break above the Lower Highs and the 1D MACD Bullish Cross, the rally broke above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) with ease and is headed towards the 1D MA200 (grey trend-line).
Today's analysis is on the 4H time-frame, in order to get a more detailed look on the short-term. We see that Dow Jones has already formed the 4H Golden Cross (when the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line)) that comes when the price breaks above the 1D MA50. At the same time, the price has already broken inside the volatility zone of the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. Based on the previous fractal, we could see a week of sideways price action before Dow targets the rejection zone (and the medium-term target) within the 1D MA200 (grey trend-line) and the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line).
For comparison purposes in order to get a better understanding of Dow's proportionate position compared to the previous rebounds, we've plotted all rebound sequences on top of another (Black line = Feb 24 - March 22, Grey line = June 17 - August 16 and Green line = October 02 - today). Though not 100% correlated, it is obvious that there is a high degree of convergence among all three sequences.
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** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You may also TELL ME 🙋♀️🙋♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁
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