DOW JONES Repeating the July bullish fractal. Still time to buy!It was just 10 days ago when we made a case for a medium-term buy on the Dow Jones index (DJI), against popular belief, as we had early signs that the index made a June 17 type bottom and was about to repeat the June-Aug rebound:
Our view has been confirmed so far and following the 1D RSI break above the Lower Highs and the 1D MACD Bullish Cross, the price quickly has come a few clicks away from the 1D MA50 (red trend-line).
Today's analysis is on the 4H time-frame, in order to get a more detailed look on the short-term. We see that Dow Jones has already broken above both the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) which is supporting currently. Based on the 1D RSI it seems that we are still in the early stages of this uptrend to a Lower High (at least). The 4H Golden Cross (MA50 above MA200) hasn't formed yet and in order to get a better understanding of Dow's analogous position compared to July, I've plotted the June-July sequence on today's price action (black line).
As you see, based on that, the 1D MA50 break should come by next week's end (the earliest), though of course this isn't absolute as even though similar, the current price action hasn't followed the exact pattern of June-July. Above the 1D MA50, the next volatility zone should be within the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, making way for the rejection zone (and the medium-term target) within the 1D MA200 (grey trend-line) and the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line).
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YM1
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 OCT 17US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 OCT 17
Support at 28886 long was fruitful.
Market is in rotation of 1800pts. Next target should be toward bottom
of rotation range 28635.
Possible scenarios:
1) Rotation play = trades to be taken at boundary of range.
2) Signs of breakout = look for higher lows / market loitering near
-> breakout of zone, --> test and accept of breakout = long
3) Signs of breakdown = look for lower highs / market loitering
near bottom of range --> breakdown of range --> Short on test and
reject of breakdown
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
32789 31793 31385
30513 28732 29639
29315 27741 26876
26212
Weekly: High vol up bar close off high toward middle = undecisive
Daily: Ave vol down bar close off at low = minor supply
H4: Very high vol down bar close at low = demand present
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
YM1! - Weekly Market Update, 10/17The indices had a rather wild week, the technicals are approaching being oversold. A bounce from here would not be unexpected as there is some consolidation occurring as price is currently hovering around the June low's area.
I'd like to see the market cycle back to an area of being overbought and finding a low risk confirmed area to short from. At this time I'm looking for thing's to setup again for a desirable entry.
I've adjusted support and resistance structures accordingly.
DOW DAILY SAY: BUY PINBAR COMES IT CAN GO TO 31700strongly advice dont pick sell.. DOW CAN GO UP WILD AND DONT ALLOW YOU CLOSE YOUR SELL .looking for buy in deep and hold it 4-5 day
if you have old sells, put SL or hedge buystop on today high
good luck
E-MINI DOW JONES ($5) FUTURESE-MINI DOW JONES ($5) FUTURES
The longing moves in a way that is powerful and now we have to lie down until it comes out of the great-grandfather area that we have identified.
DOW JONES RSI and MACD patterns hint to a June-Aug like rebound.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has been highly volatile today following a two day selling sequence on last week's closing. Following the NFP on Friday, the market is entering the anticipation mode over this week's CPI report, which is crucial on the Fed's rate policy. Amidst this high volatility we have spotted a recurring pattern, which has been previously bullish on the medium-term during this year's Bear Market.
As you see, every time the MACD formed a Bullish Cross while the RSI (both on the 1D time-frame) bounced on its Oversold Zone and made a Lower High, Dow formed a temporary Low and started a 2-month rebound. During the June - August rebound, the index reached as High as the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level before getting heavily rejected on the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line).
As a result, as long as last week's Support holds, we are expecting a medium-term rebound towards at least the upper Fib levels and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Short-term traders can target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Remember this doesn't constitute a long-term trend change, which remains bearish. In order to see the sentiment reverse to bullish, we should see at least a closing above the 1D MA300. A closing below last week's Support, should invalidate the medium-term pattern and instead extend the selling all the way to this Bear Market's Lower Lows trend-line at least.
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/ym #Technical analysis/ym trading at the monthly support zone.
support zone - 28700,27450,25247
resistance - 29700, 31800
Because of fed interest rate hike decision the market behaves choppy and neutral bear market.
should be more cautious for daily trading,
whereas buy the dip opportunity for long-term investment good returns over time.
This week trend may reverse from here for retracement. Short the rip for Traders.
Fomc minutes and cpi data this week lots of volatility.
Happy Trading!!!
YM1! - Weekly Market Update, 10/10Dow futures have settled again below their June lows and are approaching ORANGE channel support.
Support and resistance structures have been adjusted accordingly for your reference.
S&P500 , nasdaq nq, es all are short but not noweverybody thinks we will go directly down
but the plan is evil ;
one more leg is up as per plan
and Everything is Planned
YM1! US30USD DOW 2022 OCT 03
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 OCT 03
Dow Scenario2 breakdown yielded 700pts for last week.
congrats to those who shorted.
Possible scenarios:
1) Short on rejection of trendline // 29639 // 28886
2) Prepare to long if round bottom is observed and market
retraces during an upward move and finds support.
3) Market rotates, then find trades at edge of rotation zone.
(Yellow box)
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
32789 31793 31385
31042 30636 30202
29639 29315
Weekly: Higher vol & narrower spread down bar, close off low
= minor demand
(ave vol on bar itself) = demand coming in
Daily: Ave vol down bar close off low = No Supply
H4: Vol showed buying on the downtrend. Coupled with possible
SPRING setup
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
YM1! - Weekly Market Update, 10/3Dow futures settled below the June lows this week and are likely headed for the lower $28,XXX handle in the coming week(s).
Potentially breaking down from there would accelerate a plunge towards the 2020 lows in the coming month(s).
YM1! DAY TRADIN STRATEGYHow can we use simple indicators to trade??
I Use 1 minute Chart of Mini dow futures contract
the add #supertrade indicator
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DOW JONES PLANdear traders dow jones has exploded lately so i expect market will retest this area i axpect to buy dow jones at 28930 the target will be 29122 always wait for the best entry good luck
DOW JONES Oversold but that alone not enough for a buy------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)broke and closed last week below its 1W MA200 (red trend-line), for the first time since the week of May 11 2020, a very bearish sign on its own. Based on what the index did on May 09 2022 after breaking the previou Support (Double Bottom), the price now targets the -0.236 and -0.5 Fibonacci extensions on the medium-term.
Being however oversold with the 1D RSI hitting 24.85 yesterday for the first time since the COVID crash (March 12 2020), there is an equal probability of a short-term rebound or even a medium-term one if this is a temporary bottom like June 17. With signals on the higher and lower time-frames being mixed, the oversold RSI state isn't enough on its own to take the buy. It would be best to do so after a confirmation pattern.
The two strongest confirmation signals at the moment are:
1) When the 1D MACD makes a Bullish Cross, which since December 07 2021 always delivered a short-term rally.
2) A closing above the 0.618 Fibonacci level (now at 31357).
If you take those buys, you will have some ground behind them. Otherwise the are within the 0.618 and yesterday's lows gives a mixed sentiment. Below yesterday's lows, most likely we will see further strong selling, initially targeting the -0.236, as mentioned, at 28230.
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US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 SEP 25 Week
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 SEP 25 Week
Dow gave out presents last week with a good short opportunity.
Broadening downward wedge = demand returning.
Watch 29639 = CRITICAL SUPPORT.
Possible scenarios:
1) Long if 29639 / lower trend line support holds
2) Short if price breaks down 29639 on high volume and returns
to test on lower volume.
3) Short on rejection of upper trend line // 30636
4) Bullish break out of wedge: Long on test and accept of breakout
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
32789 31793 31385
31042 30636 30202
29639 29315
Weekly: Higher vol & narrower spread down bar, close off low
= minor demand
(ave vol on bar itself) = demand coming in
Daily: Ave vol down bar close off low = No Supply
H4: Vol showed buying on the downtrend. Coupled with possible
SPRING setup
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
YM1! - Weekly Market Update, 9/26Dow futures finding support at indicated TEAL channel structure below and essentially settled this week double bottoming off of the June 2022 low place earlier this year. The overall market has likely oversold itself these past several weeks, some relief could be anticipated however it appears the bears might be here to stay for a while...
DOW JONES The dominant short-term Channel. What it shows next.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is currently pulling-back as yesterday's rebound has failed so far to break the Channel's median. That is the Channel Down, the dominant pattern, that the index has been trading in since the August 16 High. As you see that middle trend-line has been holding a key role within this pattern.
The current price action resembles the accumulation mini phase of September 02 - 07, where the price was supported on a Lower Lows line that eventually pushed it above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Channel's middle, to rise to the top of the Channel, eventually getting rejected on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
With the 4H MACD on a Bullish Cross, we are expecting Dow to reach 31700 and make a new Lower High within the Channel Down within a 1 week horizon.
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Dow Jones 30600 Make Or BreakIn this update we review the recent price action in the DowJones emini futures contract and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 SEP 19 Week
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 SEP 19 Week
After trapping longs, market declined aggressively. Temporary
demand on average volume has returned, which could be a way of
absorbing any long positions still present in the market.
Possible scenarios:
1) Long if 30406 / 30636 is supported
2) Short on rejection of 31385 / 31042 / trend channel rejection
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
32789 31793 31385
31042 30636 30406
Weekly: Higher vol & wider spread than previous bar, close off low
(ave vol on bar itself) = demand coming in
Daily: Ave vol down bar close toward high = Demand overcoming supply
H3: Ultra high vol bar + ave vol up bars = Demand has returned
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
YM1! - Weekly Market Update, 9/19All major market indices for this past week have exhibited weakness.
However, none of the futures markets offered a 1%+ settlement confirmation.
Could this be an aggressive retest of the ascending support structure? Possibly.
Could this be setting the stage for a double bottom or even the next leg down? Possibly.
While the bias remains short, the index settlement lack the confirmation I need.
E-MINI DOW JONES ($5) FUTURESA strong requirement has been achieved and a very strong support has been broken. Our goal will be pro support, which is considered strong
DOW JONES invalidating bearish patterns, targeting 34000 again.The Dow Jones Index (DJI) closed yesterday above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as it is extending the rebound we called on our previous analysis:
As you see, that rebound came exactly on the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the June 17 Low and was the second (July 14 the first) time it held, making it the short-term Support. What Dow achieved with that 1D candle close above the 1D MA50, is to invalidate the February 24 - April 28 2022 fractal, which by that time was similar but failed to break and close above its 1D MA50 and eventually got sold aggressively.
What makes the current rebound potentially having a long-term effect is 1) the 1D RSI rebound on its multi-year Oversold Zone and 2) the Bullish Cross on the 1D MACD, which within 2022 always delivers at least a +8% rebound. Such % rise would be the test of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is our medium-term target. As mentioned numerous times before, in order to commit to long-term buying we would like to see the index close above the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line) first, which provided the rejection on the August 16 High.
So far the medium-term trading strategy is to buy every pull-back on the Higher Lows trend-line/ RSI oversold zone. A break below that level, we'll consider a bearish signal, targeting the 1W MA200 (red trend-line).
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