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YM1

Healthy Correct on Dow1. Price is potentially at its healthy correction after the passed long-hauled rally. 2. It is seems possibly to squeeze deeper within demand zone, to hunt further stop-loss. Would not be surprise to see long wick bullish pin bar to appear around this level. 3. However, it shall steadily supported around fib 50% to 61.8%, which where next pivot level to be formed. 4. It shall then rally to challenge the next swing high level - 28835. May the market be with you!
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by joseph_tan
SPY is diverging from the Global economy?The premise: SPY and the major US stock markets in general seem to be disconnected from the real state of the world's economy. This can't Iast long. So, I decided to toy with the idea that the true state of the economy is captured in the world various stock exchanges combined. So, is there a way that a world economy indicator could be built to plot the true economic trend and then be predictive? Of course, I do not have the data to build such an index but the blue line shown in this chart is my attempt to capture the world's stock exchange trend (mood). It is based on weighted averages of several world indices. It seems to say that the US stock markets (SPY in this case) is diverging from the world's macro trend right now and... ...Look at what happened last time SPY diverged from this indicator! Of course this indicator is entirely made up so, take this with a grain of salt. Also, a surprise stimulus from Washington could mix up the cards but...nevertheless I thought it was an idea worth sharing and... an indicator worth monitoring... Disclaimer: The above is not an investment advice. It is merely an opinion and I share it for your entertainment only. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
AMEX:SPYShort
by adventurous51
Thoughts on the S&P through end of 2020TVC:SPX AMEX:SPY CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:ES1! Well, the S&P; has made a crazy trip from Yearly S2 to Yearly R1 in what has certainly been a psychotic 2020 -- one that isn't over yet. On this weekly chart, I'd like to point out the firm rejection on R1 and then the follow through to the downside this week. While it wasn't crazy-strong follow through, it's certainly enough to make anyone paying attention take note. What's worse is that we have weakening RSI showing major divergence vs. the previous high, and also just a general divergence going back a few years before RSI reset this past March after hitting 30. What that means is that there just isn't the same momentum going into the last two highs as there was a few years ago. Breaking above 70 and then rejecting the 70 level is about as bearish as it gets. Taking a look at the Stochastic, the divergence is not as notable there as in RSI, so maybe that's somewhat of a silver lining. But, it does appear a bearish crossover will occur in the next week or two. I use the stochastic to confirm RSI, not the other way around as it tends to lag significantly, especially on longer time frames like weekly charts. Kinda looks like one of those setups where a few weeks later I think to myself "I should've taken the warning signs more seriously". If you take a look at the 4 hour chart, you'll notice a pretty sketchy hear & shoulders top with today's close right on the neckline. Joy . Things could start getting sketchy as soon as next week. So, if this is correct, and we're trending lower now, how low will we go? My guess is somewhere between S2 or S3 by the end of the year. That 1900 area is certainly strong support and should almost definitely be defended. After that, who knows? With everything as batshit crazy as it has been this year, there's no telling what next year will look like. My advice? Pack it in for the year or at least until the political cycle is behind us here in the US. Good luck everybody.
SP:SPXShort
by imdp
3
Elliott Wave View: Dow Futures (YM) Correction Maybe CompleteElliott Wave View of Dow Futures (YM) suggests the Index ended the cycle from June 15 low as wave ((3)) at 29180 high. Afterwards, Index did a pullback in wave ((4)) to correct against that cycle. The correction unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave Structure. Down from wave ((3)) high, wave A ended at 28052 low. The bounce in wave B ended at 28592 high. Index then resumed lower and ended wave C at 27707 low. This completed wave (W) in higher degree. Afterwards, Index bounced higher in wave (X) to correct against the cycle from September 3 high. The subdivision of the bounce unfolded as zigzag correction, where wave A ended at 28331 high, wave B ended at 27886 low and wave C ended at 28404 high. After that, Index then resumed lower. Down from wave (X) high, wave A ended at 27473 low and wave B ended at 27821 high. Finally, wave C lower ended at 27179 low to end wave (Y) and also wave ((4)) in higher degree. While above 27179 low, dips in 3,7 or 11 swings is expected to continue to find support for more upside. However, Index still needs to break above September 3 high to confirm that next leg higher in wave ((5)) is already in progress.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
💥 SPY and the DJI at Resistance BUT do we go Higher? 💫🙉💬 The SPY (ES1!) and DJI (YM1!) are both approaching resistance according to their futures contracts charts (ES1! And YM1!). Do we get a pullback here, or does the Dow retest its previous top while the other indexes run? We think both moves are in the cards. Given that, let's look at some support and resistance levels to get a sense of what might come next. Hit that 👍 button to show support for the content! Help the community grow by giving us a follow 🐣 ----- ES1! Support: S1: The range at the S/R flip and pivot point is a very obvious support level. We expect a reaction here if tested. S2: If this S/R flip and orderblock range is tested it is very likely to hold. This looks like the perfect entry if we do get a pullback. Fear should be high going into this major support. ES1! Resistance: R1: Our one and only resistance is the one we are at right now, the orderblock range at the previous high. A correction here doesn't really dampen the bull case assuming S1 or S2 holds. Despite this, it the ideal is for the bulls to break above R1 and treat it as support moving forward as shown by the bullish ABC on the chart. YM1! Support: S1: The S/R flip for the Dow isn't as pronounced as the S&P's, but we expect a reaction here regardless. S2: The orderblock and S/R cluster is the obvious support, just like it was for the S&P. Fear should be high going into this, but this is an ideal entry for bulls if we get a correction. YM1! Resistance: R1: If the Dow Jones can take out this resistance, or if the S&P can take out its resistance, then the bulls get a field day because there will be no resistance on any chart until the Dow's R2. R2: It would make a ton of sense for the market to see a pullback as the Dow finally retests the orderblock range at the all-time high. With that said, a breakout above R1 means lots of room to run to R2. A rejection here and we would then look for R1 to become support as illustrated by the bullish ABC on the chart. ----- Summary: The S&P and Dow Jones are both at resistance, we have yet to see a breakout. A breakout for either likely pulls the rest of the market up and then the main resistance becomes the Dow's R2 range at the previous high. A rejection here, and we have our eyes on S1 and S2. Splitting bids between these levels makes sense. Now, how much of this is going to be influenced by stimulus deals and dollar weakness? That is a great question, our main focus here is on resistance, but either of those items could make a big impact. Resources: nypost.com ✨ Drop a comment asking for an update, we do NEW setups every day! ✨
CME_MINI:ES1!
by AlphaBotSystem
6
Elliott Wave View: Dow Futures Zigzag Correction In ProgressElliott Wave View in Dow Futures (YM_F) suggests the rally from July 30,2020 low has ended at 28069 high as wave 3. Up from July 30 low, wave ((i)) ended at 26457 high and wave ((ii)) dips ended at 25905 low. Index then extended higher in wave ((iii)) towards 27307 high. The internal subdivision of wave ((iii)) unfolded as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave Structure. Wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at 26678 high and wave (ii) pullback ended at 26439 low. Rally higher in wave (iii) then ended at 27193 high, followed by wave (iv) pullback which ended at 26924 low. Wave (v) then extended higher and ended at 27307 high. Afterwards, the Index did a pullback in wave ((iv)), which ended at 27105 low. Finally, wave ((v)) higher ended at 28069 high. This final move completed wave 3 in higher degree and ended cycle from July 30 low. Index is currently correcting that cycle within wave 4. The correction is unfolding as a zigzag structure, where wave ((a)) is currently still in progress. This will be followed by a bounce in wave ((b)) and then another leg lower in wave ((c)). While pullback stays above 25878 low, expect the dips in 3,7 or 11 swings to find support for more upside.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
3
Follow the smart money! 1. Bonds are showing a very similar up trend pattern as in the early 2020 (black line) See what happened next in late February and early March. As soon as the market started its descent, bonds shut way up ! 2. The dollar appears to want to bottom. Where did it go when bonds shut up? (Orange line). There was a small lag but DXY went way up to the roof! 3. What does it mean for Gold (cyan line) & miners? As the dollar shoots up, Gold, priced in USD, will correct like they did then. Target is hard to establish at this point but a significant pull back is expected. I will update when I am out of this trade. 4. Conclusion, as soon as the over valued stock market shows signs of weakness, bonds will shoot up, the dollar will follow and gold & miners will correct significantly. As they also did in 2008 (not shown in this chart) before taking off! Please note this is a short term view (30 to 60 days). I am bullish on gold and miners long term. However, a great entry price should come soon. Why not profit before then? Disclaimer: The above is not an investment advice. It is merely an opinion and I share it for your entertainment only. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
AMEX:GDXJShort
by adventurous51
Coming week can bring turbulence. ExplainedComing week can bring turbulence to markets. Special attention has to be paid to the SP500. The technical analysis is still neutral. We got rejection last week, but it happened with a low volume. It can’t be considered a valid swing failure. If 3170 – 3140 holds, we can see a retest of 3400 and possible double top formation. However, fewer stocks support this rally. We have seen the same scenario before each sharp decline. So, keep that in mind if you long the stock market. The Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for the coming week. But likely we will not hear something new. Implementing negative rates looks doubtful. So, the dovish tone is all I expect from the Fed. Extra jobless benefits disappear at the end of the month. Currently, 20 million Americans get an extra $600 a week. If there will be no fast extension of this payment, the income of the average unemployed person can fall to $200 a week. That will make people spend less. Less spending means less income for the retail business. Some of them will have to close. We have already discussed a big number of bankruptcies and their impact on the economy and the stock market. The situation looks dramatic. The second-quarter U.S. GDP is another important data all traders are waiting for. Atlanta Fed forecasts almost 53% decline. Those numbers can shock the market and cause high volatility. Such expectation is a result of rapid COVID spread in the USA. The situation in the EU is more positive with a 12% GDP decline expected.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by UnknownUnicorn1156963
Elliott Wave View: Dow Futures (YM_F) Resumes HigherYM_F 45 minutes chart below shows that Index has ended the cycle from July 7 high as wave 2 at 25293 low. The pullback unfolded as a zig-zag Elliott Wave Structure. From July 7 high, wave ((a)) ended at 25661 low. Wave ((b)) bounce ended at 26029 high and wave ((c)) ended at 25293 low. Up from that wave 2 low, Index has resumed higher as a 5 waves Impulse Elliott Wave structure. Wave (i) ended at 25519 high and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 25362 low. Index then extended higher in wave (iii), which ended at 26215 high. Wave ((iv)) dips then ended at 26024 low. The index then pushed higher in wave (v) which ended at 26524 high. The rally ended larger degree wave ((i)) and also broke above previous wave 1 high. This confirms that the next leg higher is already in progress. Afterwards, the Index corrected that rally as another zig-zag correction in wave ((ii)) and ended at 25871 low. From there, Index continued to resume higher in wave (i) of ((iii)), with the internal subdivision unfolding as another 5 waves Impulse in lesser degree. Up wave ((ii)) low, wave i ended at 26310 high and wave ii dip ended at 26156 low. Wave iii then ended at 26817 high and wave iv pullback ended at 26720 low. The index can still make another high in wave v, which will end wave (i) in the larger degree. A 3 waves pullback in wave (ii) should happen before the Index resumes higher. As long as pullback stays above 25871 low, expect wave (ii) dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more upside.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast