Range day until fed meeting on US30Expecting a range day until fed meeting.
If the current green box hold, then we can go long in morning with possible target as 35500
If we break the current green box then we are looking for a downward move to 35250.
Would be great to take a look at overnight price action
If long:
Entry - 35400
Stop - 35350
Target - 35500
If short:
Entry - 35350
Stop - 35400
Target - 35250
YM1
DOW JONES: Technical pull-back possible inside the Channel Up.Dow Jones is highly overbought on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 74.321, MACD = 411.840, ADX = 51.669) and coupled with the price approaching R1 (35,530) and R2 (35,885), which form a HH Rejection Zone, the probability of a technical pull-back strengthens.
HH bullish legs inside the Channel Up get rejected after reaching a +6% rise, so even on that parameter, Dow is close. The 1D RSI is also almost on the HH trendline. Consequently we are going short, targeting the 1D MA50 (TP = 34,400).
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DOW JONES Starting to turn into sell with overbought RSIDow Jones crossed over even Resistance 1 (34950) and is getting very close to the top of the Channel Up.
Along with the RSI (1d) entering the 70.00 overbought zone, the index is starting to give the first sell signal.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell from the current market price to Resistance 2 (35535).
Targets:
1. 34150 (potential contact with the MA50 1d).
Tips:
1. Every Higher High rejection inside this Channel Up was made on a Double Top could. That's the reason for us providing a sell range.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
US30 LongLooks like a good opportunity to go long on Dow Jones. Just broken the ascending triangle and the supply zone as well and heading towards 35000
Entry - 34592
Stop loss - 34500 ( I would like to see 2hr close below this level)
First target - 34750
Final Target - 35000
Please let me know your thoughts. Thank you
DOW JONES Resistance breakouts can lead as high as 35500Dow Jones / US30 is trading inside a 4 month Channel Up and today crossed above Resistance A (34575).
The attempts have been on the Support of the 4hour MA50.
The formation looks like the June 2nd- 5th breakout, which peaked at +5.75% from its bottom.
Apply careful confirmed buying. Short term target 34800. If Resistance B breaks, buy again and target 35500 (Resistance C).
Previous chart:
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DOW JONES getting closer to Resistance Zone for a technical sellIt's been a while since we looked into Dow Jones (DJI) and made the bottom buy on the Channel Up last Higher Low (chart below):
Right now the index is rising after a rebound on a Double Bottom on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The dominant pattern is a Channel Up and the secondary a Diverging Channel Up (dotted lines) that forms a Higher Highs rejection zone within Resistance 1 (34530) and its top. We will look for a sell on the next candle inside it (ideally with the 1D RSI on its Resistance Zone) and target the bottom of the Channel Up at 33650 near Support 1.
If however the price breaks above Resistance 2 (34950) and the MACD maintains the Bullish Cross it is forming today, we will open a buy and target 33500 (just below Resistance 3).
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DOW JONES: pulling back to the 1D MA50 again.Dow Jones has had a technical HH rejection at the top of the dotted Channel Up and just as quickly, the price is approaching the 1D MA50, which offered support on the June 26th rebound. The 1D technicals are neutral (RSI = 48.089, MACD = 156.460, ADX = 28.256) indicating that the 1D MA50 is now the pivot level: as long as it holds, expect the price to bounce on it again, so we will buy and target the R2 (TP = 34,95) but if it closes a 1D candle under it, sell and target the bottom of the dotted Channel Up (TP = 33.000).
The strongest buy opportunity on a four month basis is when the RSI hits its HL trendline.
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DOW JONES is aiming at a new Low unless the Resistance breaks.Dow Jones is trading inside the corrective wave of the long term Channel Up.
As long as Resistance A (34575) holds, sell and target the Channel's bottom and 1day MA100 at 33500.
If the Resistance A breaks, buy and target 34850.
For a long term buy, always look to buy inside the 4hour RSI's buy zone, which is on oversold territory.
Previous chart:
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DOW JONES Take profit soon. Pull back expected.Dow Jones is almost on Resistance (1) at 34530 with the top of the dotted Channel Up just over it at 34700.
That is a level where the buy profits from the MA50 (1d) buys should be realized and then wait for a break out or pull back in order to continue buying.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell within 34600 - 34700.
2. Buy if the (1d) candle closes over 34700.
3. Buy on the MA200 (1d) at 33500.
Targets:
1. 33500 (MA200 1d).
2. 35400 (near the top of the yellow long term Channel Up).
3. 34900 (Resistance 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is posting a sequence similar to the February top. That started a significant medium term correction.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONES: Bullish as long as 1D MA50 holds. Bearish if broken.Dow Jones turned flat following the rebound on the 1D MA50 three days ago with both the 4H and 1D technicals neutral (RSI = 53.777, MACD = 111.180, ADX = 25.084). As long as the 1D candles closes over the 1D MA50, stay bullish and target the R2 (TP = 34,950). A crossing under the 1D MA50 will most likely target the 1D MA200 and possibly even lower at the bottom of the diverging Channel Up, aiming to complete a -5% decline (TP = 33,000). That can be an excellent long term buy entry. However if the RSI rebounds on its HL trendline, then enter the buy earlier regardless of a 1D MA200 hit or not.
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Dow Jones Industrial Average: To 36000 Epic Milestone and BeyondDow 36,000: A New Strategy to Profit from Coming Stock Market Growth is a book published on October 1, 1999 by columnist James C. Glassman and economist Kevin A. Hassett in which they argued that stocks were significantly undervalued in 1999 and came to the conclusion that the market will grow 4 times, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI will rise to 36,000 by 2002 or 2004.
The most important fact about stocks at the dawn of the twenty-first century: they are cheap...
- Glassman and Hasset. 1999. "Introduction". Dow 36000
However, life has made its own adjustments, and the era of "irrational optimism" (as it always happens) - came to its inevitable end.
In January 2000, just about three months later the publication of the book, the Dow Jones Index reached a record high of 11,750.28 points, which subsequently remained unbeaten for the next 6 plus years.
In the early 2000s, the Index fell steadily after the dot-com technology bubble burst.
And after the well-known bang on the American Twin Towers happened on September 11, 2001, the Dow Jones index fell even more, reaching a minimum of 7286.27 points by October 2002.
Financial crisis of 2007-09 sent the Dow Jones to even lower levels, which ultimately freed the hands of Congress and the US Treasury to uncover the money bazooka through raising national debt limits.
In general, only after the second attempt to fix above DJIA 10-year moving average in the third quarter of 2011, the Dow was able to rise in a half of the predicted path (from about 10,000 to 36,000 points).
Just 18 years later to the publication, in October 2017, - Dow reached milestone of 23,000 points, and the final achievement of the desired mark of 36,000 points took place only in December 2021.
However, by that time just few people remembered this book and its authors, who were later called "charlatans". Given that over the 22-year period since the publication of the book, consumer spending in the US ( FRED:PCE ) has increased by more than 2.5 times overall; the prices of gasoline, oil, wheat, corn, and sugar have more than tripled, and the prices of metals such as copper and gold have risen 5 to 7 times.
Closer to today's reality, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to follow the main uptrend trajectory formed by the US recovery from the 2007-09 Housing crisis. Dow stays for nowadays above its 10-year simple moving average that supported the index both in the third quarter of 2011 and at the time of Covid- 19 market collapse in the first quarter of 2020. At the moment Dow is being above the marked moving average by about 36.45%.
Technical resistance is considered as a range of 34,000 - 34,500 points, that lost in the first quarter of 2022. Attempts to return above this strong level have been overshadowed for several months - either by a banking collapse, and later by aggravated talk about the crisis of the US national debt ceiling.
In such scenarios, coupled with inflation, which remains significantly above the target level of 2 percent, despite repeated attempts to curb it by the Federal Reserve , the 36,000th milestone can for quite a long time, for a decade or even a year and a half, become a growth constraint of the world economy for quite a long time - for a decade or even fifteen years.
Key facts about the Dow Jones Industrial Average:
👉 Technical chart provided by ETF AMEX:DIA - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, generally in line with the price and yield of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (100:1 ratio).
👉 Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJ:DJI ) is made up of 30 price-weighted blue-chip components of US stocks.
👉 DJIA is the oldest barometer of the US stock market, the flag and the logo of capitalism, and the most widely quoted indicator of the activity of the US stock market and world economy.
DOW JONES Double buy entry on the MA50 and MA200 (1d).Dow Jones got heavily rejected on Resistance (1) and is pulling back to the MA50 (1d).
The index is trading inside a double Channel Up pattern.
The MA50 and MA200 (1d) each serve as a Support level and potential buy entry.
The pattern so far is much alike the December 20th - January 20th fractal and that dipped much lower after its rejection.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the MA50 (1d).
2. Sell if the (1d) candle closes under the MA50 (1d).
3. Buy on the MA200 (1d).
Targets:
1. 34530 (Resistance 1).
2. 33000 (MA200 1d and bottom of white Channel Up).
3. 34800 (under Resistance 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is printing an identical pattern to December - January so far. This favors a rebound but from a lower level such as the MA200 (1d).
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONES Crossed under the 4hour MA50. Short term sell signal.Dow Jones has crossed under the 4hour MA50 and hit the bottom of the short term Channel Up.
Since December, every closing under the 4hour MA50 has been a sell signal (8 times) with a decline ranging from -1.66% to -4.74% from the moment of crossing.
As long as the Channel Up holds, buy and target Resistance A at 34900.
If the Channel Up breaks, sell and target Support A at 33400.
Then since that Support is near the bottom of the long term Channel Up started in March and represents a -2.00% decline from the MA50 breaking moment, buy for the medium term and target again 34900.
A very consistent buy signal is when the 4hour RSI enters the green Oversold Zone. That has issued a rebound back to the 4hour MA50 on all 7 occurrences since December.
Previous chart:
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DOW JONES on the 4H MA50 on the Channel UpDow Jones touched the 4H MA50 and bottom of Channel Up 2 that is dominating June's price action. Naturally, the 1D technicals are bullish (RSI = 63.354, MACD = 250.370, ADX = 14.024) and the 4H ones marginally neutral, which indicates a short term buy opportunity.
With the 4H STOCH RSI making a Bullish Cross inside the oversold zone, that is technically a buy signal at least on the short term. The next technical Resistance is R2 and that's our target (TP = 34,950), which is also the Top of December 13th 2022.
If the candle closes under the 4H MA50 though, which would also mean crossing under Channel Up 2, we will short targeting the 4H MA200 (TP = 33,500).
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DOW JONES rebounding on the MA50 (4h) aiming at 34750.Dow Jones has had a strong rebound on the MA50 (4h) since the Fed low yesterday and maintains the short term Channel Up.
There is still much room for the index to rise inside the long term Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
2. If the price crosses under the Channel Up, buy on the MA50 (1d).
Targets:
1. 34750 (Rising Resistance).
2. 34900 (Resistance 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) has its own Rising Resistance to be mindful of. The last two contact points with it, formed Higher Highs on the short term Channel Up.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONES The closing of the 1day candle can send it to 34900Dow Jones/ US30 hit yesterday Resistance A (34260) but closed the candle under it.
If it closes over it, especially if the Fed assists with favorable news today, buy and target Resistance B at 34900.
Until it closes over it, a rejection is equally possible, with the 1day MA50 being the lowest buy entry in the event of a pull back.
The 1day MACD is still on a Bullish Cross, showing a healthy bullish trend.
Previous chart:
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DOW JONES: Levels to trade for continuation of rejection of the Dow Jones is bullish on a 1D MACD Bullish Cross with all of its 1D technicals in deep green (RSI = 60.720, MACD = 99.160, ADX = 23.397). This short term bullish trend is almost the same as April's that was later rejected at the top of the long term Channel Up. Consequently, we are selling at the top, targeting the bottom (TP = 33,300) of an emerging Channel Up pattern.
If on the other hand the index crosses over the R1, we will take the loss on the sell and go long, targeting the top (TP = 35,200) of the Channel Up, unless the price closes under the 1D MA50 earlier, in which case we will book the profit earlier.
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YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 June 12 WeekYM1! US30USD DOW 2023 June 12 Week
No change to previous analysis, observing reaction to 34605-34275 area. Last Friday's up bar
showed significant weakness.
Possible scenario:
Short if 34605-34275 is rejected again
Reason:
Higher low toward previous resistance, on reducing volume.
The professionals may engineer a false break to suck in traders unaware of the weakness.
We shall wait to short on rejection of recent high.
Price Reaction Levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35750 34605-34275
32692 31657
Price Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar = NTC
Daily: Ultra low vol up bar close off high = significant weakness
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Have a profitable trading week.
*For education purpose only.
DOW JONES confirmed buy signal supported by the MA50 (1d)Dow Jones is having a confirmed bullish breakout singal as it crossed over the short term Channel Up while holding the MA50 (1d).
This is a channel inside the longer term pattern of a Channel Up since the March Triple Bottom.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the market price.
2. Buy if the price crosses above Resistance (1).
3. Sell if the price crosses below Support (1).
Targets:
1. 34350 (under Resistance 1).
2. 34900 (under Resistance 2).
3. 31750 (Support 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is at a level symmetric to January 11th when again the price crossed above a short term Channel Up after rebounding on the MA50 (1d). It reached 34350 shortly after.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONES: Testing the 1D MA50. Rally if it holds.Dow Jones hit TP1 = 33,650 and is now going for our TP2 = 33,900 as per the trading plan we made last week (chart at the bottom). The 1D time frame finally turned (slightly) bullish (RSI = 51.712, MACD = -40.000, ADX = 28.963) for the first time since May 1st but today's pull back is testing the 1D MA50. If it holds, we expect to reach the 33,900 target that is under the top of the large Channel Down structure.
With the MACD having formed a Bullish Cross, there are high chances of this turning into a medium term rally into a new Channel Up. If R1 breaks (34,275) we will buy the breakout and aim at the top of this potential Channel Up (TP = 35,200).
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YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 June 05 WeekYM1! US30USD DOW 2023 June 05 Week
Welcome myself back from holiday!
Some selling into higher prices, so will watch reaction to 24605-34275
area.
Possible scenario:
1) Short if 34605-34275 is rejected again
2) Higher low toward previous resistance, for long on retracement.
Retracement down bars need to be on lower volume for this to happen.
Price Reaction Levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35750 34605-34275
32695 31657
Price Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Lower vol wide spread up bar = possible weakness
Daily: Higher vol wide spread up bar = possible weakness
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Have a profitable trading week.
*For education purpose only.
DOW JONES on a confirmed Bullish break-out.Dow Jones (DJI) has broken above the short-term Channel Down today, fulfilling the conditions for a buy break-out as presented on our previous analysis (see idea below) and is now even above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line):
To add more to the bullish sentiment, it even broke above the Diverging Lower Highs and has no real Resistance until 34270, which is our short-term Target. The current rebounded was achieved after the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) held as Support on three separate tests.
The hidden Buy Signal however was derived by the 1D MACD, which completed today a Bullish Cross, the first since March 21 that was the previous market bottom and the start of the current long-term Channel Up
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