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Yuan

CUP OF CHINESE COFFEE ANYONE?Probable nice CUP O´COFFEE Formation in the Yuan. Devaluation has been happeningin steps of 150pips. so this could be a long and paced devaluation (but pretty safe according to Macros). Macro Astro Mr. Kyle Bass has cited: KYLE BASS: 'We are facing the largest macro imbalance in global history' Rachael Levy 01 Jul 2016 6:58 PM 611 Kyle Bass. "We are facing the largest macro imbalance in global history." That's according to Kyle Bass, founder of hedge fund Hayman Capital Management. Investors better prepare for a Chinese crisis that will mimic what happened in the US mortgage crisis, Bass said in a Friday interview with Real Vision Television. "When I look at what's happening now in China, the amplitude of what's happening is two, three, or four times what happened in the US," he said. Here are Bass' main points: *The Chinese are going to have to accept a devaluation of the yuan. When the Chinese crisis hits, the Chinese are going to have to react similarly to the way central bankers did after the mortgage crisis. "They're going to expand the PBOC's balance sheet. They're going to slash the reserve requirement. They're going to drop the deposit rate to zero. They're going to do everything the US did in our crisis," he said. And it won't look good. "Every single thing the Chinese central bank has to do is currency negative for them." The takeaway? You better get ready. "In the next two years, this is happening. If you want to pretend that it's not going to happen, you're going to do poorly somewhere in your portfolio."
Long
by maguila057
BTC; The long term view, looking for price drivers and ChinaThere are links between bitcoin and Chinese capital outflows and the control thereof and currency relations / controls of Chinese currency. The relationship is highlighted with the comparison of the prices of BTCUSD (light blue area ) and USDCNH ( Dark blue line ). This is useful in helping to form an idea of which direction the BTC may take. Currently there is a divergence in the price between BTC and USDCNH, which may point to a future weakening of bitcoin demand. Both the trends remain in a long term bull pattern as long as another higher high is made. Currently there is some divergence in the price between BTC and USDCNH, which may point to a future weakening of bitcoin demand or at least slowing of the momentum of this trend. I am watching to see if the USDCNH reverses its trend and the Chinese Yuan starts strengthening. If so I will become bearish on the bitcoin. Currently, because the Yuan is still moving upwards, respecting the brown/orange trendline and the bitcoin is also in a bull trend. However I will change my opinion to neutral if the Yuan ( blue ) breaks through the orange trend line . I will probably change to a bearish stance if the bitcoin follows suit and forms a lower low, past the $950 / $900 area.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Quadricolor
BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" What the hell?Bitfinex laid an egg. Of course, Wells Fargo Bank did all the heavy breathing. And, then the price explodes to an all time high. But... it's not real. In fact, it's price discovery chaos all over bitcoin world. Let's dig a little deeper. I have been reporting for months and months that there is a war going on between the PBoC and the Chinese bitcoin exchanges. They shut down withdrawals into the Yuan under the guise of preventing crime. You see, only governments can be criminal... legally. Then Xi eats chocolate cake with the Trumpster and magically the war expands to the "Peoples Bank of USA", aka Wells Fargo. The price discovery chaos is because the bank battles have been scattered and not uniform. Therefore investors at various exchanges are reacting differently. Should we collectively panic? Some think this is a Bitfinex solvency issue and they are running for the exits. This will subside if Bitfinex is telling the truth about their solvency. Will the war spread? BTC-e and BitStamp are reporting fiat transfer problems in a different way but the timeline is the same. So yes, the war is spreading. Is this the end of the world? I remember the day when the easiest way to get bitcoin was to meet a stranger at Starbucks and exchange a wad of cash over a laptop. We can go back to that. They can't stop us. When and where is the price of bitcoin going? Look at the volume line on Bitfinex. We are seeing a huge divergence between price and volume. This ends badly for the buy and hold crowd. Price will plummet dramatically when demand drops due to A: all of the investors running for the exits have exited or B: Bifinex solves the fiat transfer problem. So I look at the situation as no more than panic buying in a blow-off top scenario. I remain Neutral on BTC because I cannot tell you when these events will happen. The price will continue to rise until it happens and then tank.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by investigator
5
LTCCNY 4H Count (cont. update)As prices have achieved new highs we have the grounds to declare a possible intermediate top. Divergences continue on RSI and EWO - note the clear divs between 3 of (3) and 5 of (3), and again between (3) of 3 circle and (5) of 3 circle. Change in direction of volume adds evidence to intermediate top as we see volume increase through (3) and steadily decline as price made new highs during (5). Price action has been quite volatile lately; it is still possible prices continue sticky up to push higher in which case this count would need to be re-evaluated. For now, we continue to watch for price breakdown for a intermediate correction.
L
by Aerot
LTCCNY 4H CountBased on the size and strength of recent price movement it seems that we have completed a wave three of some degree. Additionally, a bear divergence has formed on the RSI signaling the end of a move; the width of the EWO tells us it was most likely a three. Here it has been labeled using (3). Price requirements for (4) have been met, but there is a good chance to revisit that area once more before continuing upward to complete (5). Invalidation at price territory of (1), ~35.75CNY. A break and close above ~55.47CNY puts price past one of the final major horizontal resistances before ATH.
LLong
by Aerot
BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" She's got LegsRead along while humming ZZ Top. This leg is formed much better than the blow off top leg 2 months ago. The only problem is volume is diminishing and that usually is a sign of the end. There are some contradictory indicators. MACD and RSI are showing this rally to has a little more room to grow. The angle of this leg is unsustainable and the price has broken through into territory which should display top side resistance. I would bet this part of the rally is more cup wall building and cups generally top below the left edge. Prudence would dictate that it's time to pull down some profit. The wild card fundamental is the PBOC and a potential court ordered exchange failure at OKCoin. The Chinese government just wants to get their grubby dirty rotten regulation hands all over this. I still don't think this is the cosmic moment for a colossal breakout. I am having fun with the ups and downs though. $900 by July is still in the cards although please note I was calling for $750 by February. I was only off by 30% but who's complaining. One thing is for sure, the main stream media is looking the other way. Not one peep about BTC approaching its all time high. Their all focused on the Trumpster and the street performers acting out the "cry-baby revolution". In the meantime the Euro is still crumbling. Greek debt is making a comeback pitch. Bonfires are ringing Paris. Stockholm is in flames. And, here's a new one, high levels of radioactive Iodine has been detected all over the Euro-continent. Looks to me like someone farted out a dirty home made nuke bomb. Cesium is power plant, Plutonium is H bomb, Iodine is medical. Get out your Geiger counters its time to wand before you eat. All kinds of Panic going on.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by investigator
5
BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" Waiting for THE Cosmic EventThe Chinese Yuan devaluation is now complete. The Chinese banksters realize the insiders can move money in and out of Bitcoin as a value store. A fake investigation of Chinese based Bitcoin exchanges covers the insiders asses while preserving this avenue for their future devaluation shenanigans. The result: No more margin trading (unless you use some other exchange location) and no more fee free trades in China. Did this impact the price of Bitcoin? No. Why would it? The Yuan is as low as it can get against the USD. The USD is at a huge unsustainable high relative to all other currencies. As the USD devalues watch for what the Chinese do. This will give them ample opportunity to devalue the Yuan further. Can Trump save the US economy? That is the biggest question of the year and it will take that long to really find out. For now we are in the doldrums. BTC is reverberating and it appears that the top blue dash resistance line is valid. I'm changing my outlook to wedging action between the red dash support and blue dash resistance to a point of $900 by July. The price can still get as low as $750 but should stay there only briefly. This action will complete the classic "cup with handle" formation. Break out from the handle above $900 after July and the a secondary breakout in large volume from the cup formation is the cosmic event we are all waiting for. This could be the year it happens. Countries currently in full panic: Venezuela, India, Mexico, China, Germany, France, Italy, Greece. Japan.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by investigator
10
USDCNH: PBOC gave us a nice discount in BTC and USDCNHFollowing the PBOC's manipulation and the massive drop for two days, price is starting to slow down. I think we will see a bottom here shortly. If we don't hit 6.7696 before Monday's close, we can anticipate a turn here. After the week closes, we'll get more confirmation of the risks in BTC and USDCNH. It could take as long as 3 weeks to confirm upside is viable again, so let's keep close watch of this and don't miss the discount to enter the long side again. I'll update this one as needed. As a sidenote, it's interesting to see volatility increase in this pair, it tends to move very little compared to other FX dollar crosses. An increase in volatility and liquidity might make traders become interested in it, which would create more opportunities and potentially higher win rate signals with increased liquidity. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" We're Going To MARSIn the words of Alan Greenspan, you know the rumpled old geezer that speaks in rhymes, said something about irrational exuberance in the markets, I will invoke those same words. BEWARE OF IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE in the bitcoin market. What's causing this straight up spike in price? The China devaluation of the Yuan, the India currency confiscation, and here's a new one, the Brazil distrust and ejection of big government communists, have all laid a foundation of Bitcoin price support. It didn't hurt that Trump got elected, that the dark cloud of illegal immigration in Europe is causing a nationalistic resurgence, that Italian and other Euro banks are failing. These are all fundamental strengths. But what has taken place in the last 3 weeks in Bitcoin, a 50% gain, cannot go on forever. This is a classical setup to a blow off top. The Yuan is at a 6 year low relative to the dollar. This will not last. The cost to China industry for raw imports like coal and oil will be through the roof. China will move into recession/depression. Civil unrest there will emerge as jobs dry up from industry contraction. The Chinese government needs to stop the Yuan devaluation to preserve its control over the population. NOTHING GOES STRAIGHT UP IN VALUE FOREVER. There will be an end, and it will be dramatic. I kind of think that the big boys are looking to touch an all time high and then take profits faster than you can say WTF. What kind of evidence do I have? NONE. It's just a gut feel. So, I have loosely defined the top. Where's the bottom? There is solid support at $750. My advice. Take down incremental profit into this rally. Don't sell everything because we don't know where the top actually is and we're nearing uncharted territory as far as the technical tools. Just take down the profit you feel you don't deserve. When the market drops down to rational support, re-invest the profit. If the scenario plays out, the technical pattern will be a GIANT cup with handle formation. A breakout from the cup will have an approximate $2000 target. When? The cup is three years long. It could take another year for the beginning of a breakout. So, maybe, 2 years for a target. I'm still sticking to my $750 by mid February prediction although if the pullback shows signs of support at $950, I'll gladly raise my expectations.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by investigator
6