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ZAR

What to do with the rand?? for a South African citizen, global assets are essential given the fact that the South African market only constitutes around 1% of the global market whilst the South African economy constitutes 0.4% of the global economy. Simply put, South African need exposure to assets which are susceptible to short term movements in the Rand. The chart shows the ZAR/USD exchange rate in blue and the local financial index in orange. For the most part they tend to have a negative correlation. In other words, if the rand strengthens, South African financials tend to do well and vice versa. We can see that the long-term trend for the rand is towards a weakening bias. In the short to medium term, movements in the rand impact the ability to show South African investors a good return on foreign assets. in other words the currency factor increases volatility for a Rand investor or at least someone who spends their money in Rands (retired investors). South African financial are showing cheap valuations which discount the financial turmoil that South African consumers are facing. Therefore there's a low base effect which needs to be factored in (possible repricing of the shares). On the other hand SA financials are also discounting the fact that there ability to grow their earnings is perhaps less than desirable. Select financials are likely to be better performers based on the merits of their business however, from an overall financial wellness perspective, the index is not all that attractive over a 12-18 month period. The question is, will this help support a bottom range for the Rand at around R14 to the USD? If so, the risk of an extreme strengthening event hitting the rand is probably closer to 20% - 25%. Does this potentially support the fact that the rand should be weaker in the next 12 - 18 months? The clear and obvious unknown to this scenario is that if the commodity cycle continues and indeed accelerates, South Africa's income statement and balance sheet become marginally healthier and therefore could result in a re-rating in the Rand and local financials. Its important to understand that it not about trading the rand but rather trying to quantify its downside risk from a Rand investor looking to offshore assets. If one was able to close their eyes and forget the volatility in the currency, well then problem solved however, investor behaviour doesn't allow for that... Please like and follow. Please also share your views on the trading ideas and whether or not you find them to be of any value to you as a trader. Please note, this idea is shared for educational and discussion purposes only and should not result in speculative investment decisions in any asset class.
by JesseMorgans
4
USDZAR - Long Term Lookout ForexHi Everyone Been a while since I've posted on my account here! I felt like doing something different today (other than crypto) after someone asked me about USDZAR / Forex. Even if you're not into this specific trading pair, watch the video anyway, I mention some really interesting points that you can apply to your other chart pairs like fib time zones etc. The Fractal / Wyckoff Method: The Fractal demonstrating effectiveness of Fibonacci for time zones: The new fractal and accompanying Fibonacci time zone: Watch for 3 price targets before Feb 2022. Let me know your thoughts below, BlockTechEv
by BlockTechEv
4
EURZAR on a channel break 🦐EURZAR on the 4h chart created a triple top below a weekly resistance. The price is currently testing the ascending channel trendline over a daily support and according to Plancton0's strategy if the market will break below we will set a nice short order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
12
USD/ZAR:PRICE ACTION+FIBO ANALISYS|DOWNTREND|SHORT SETUP🔔The forecast for the USD/ZAR turned bearish after this currency pair lost upside momentum. Traders should expect a rise in volatility as bulls and bears wrestle for control. Welcome back Traders, Investors, and Community! Check the Links in Description and If you LIKE this analysis, Please support our page and Ideas by hitting the LIKE 👍 button Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. Have a Good Day Trading !
Short
by FOREXN1
3
Bullish Flag on Purple GroupJSE:PPE had a nice upward rally at the beginning of June followed by a slightly downward consolidation period. Because of these moves, we have seen the formation of a bullish flag pattern. A bullish flag is a continuation pattern, therefore the expectation is that the price will continue upwards once the breakout has happened. So far this morning a breakout has occurred, but I may be inclined to wait until Monday before entering a long position. If you take the length of the "flagpole" into account the target for this trade should be around 190.
JSE:PPELong
by RossLarter
GBP/ZAR:SWING FIBO RETRACEMENT UPTREND|LONG SETUP 🔔The forecast for the GBP/ZAR remains bullish after this currency pair finished a minor correction. Can bulls take advantage of upside pressures and force the GBP/ZAR into its next horizontal resistance area? Check the Links on BIO and If you LIKE this analysis, Please support our page by hitting the LIKE 👍 button Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. Have a Good Day Trading !
Long
by FOREXN1
7
As predicted, things are getting worse in South Africa, part 2Guess it's time to follow up on my previous idea: Body count is going up. Some officers (including high up) going full racist, for example one guy was saying the indians choose their camp (whites). In a single raid over 1 million rounds were stolen, enough for a whole company to go to war (or capture more weapons). SANDF getting chased by civilians, bah this happens in France too no big deal, and in Turkey soldiers are used as scapegoats then beat up by mobs. Russia which is like the only country in the world not completely melted brain, recommended (strongly) to its nationals to stock up on food and water and lock themselves up at home during the pogroms. They didn't say bullets it seems, weird. I know that some guys have some tigers, I wonder how useful that is? Sorry but I have to mention this: only one store in Watercrest Mall was untouched, the rest was destroyed. The untouched store waaaaas .... THE BOOK STORE! 🤣🤣🤣 "We have no access to education we are 200 elo because of our teammates and the unfair game patches". (Some) Supply lines are destroyed. Queues of thousands to get in a store, never saw this before are these people for real? Factories burned down some leaking pollution. Boers going to have full stomachs and urban citizens going to go hungry let's go humanitarian bla bla bla would you like to make a useless donation to a useless NGO to feel better about yourself? Told for 4 years people in the west cities sucked and either get out or stock on food and I wrote about SA too. I did my part, more useful than NGOS imo. At least I help out smart people the rest is helpless it will never make a difference. I don't know Africa below the equator my guess is Zuma which was just sent to jail for looting is a bantu zulu or something and Cyril something something is the same or almost the same? They're both from the ANC which is nothing more than (my guess, don't know anything under the equator). An ethnic map and political result maps are the same, half east is zulu/bantu/black and all green (votes ANC), the west half is yellow and votes Democratic alliance, as if no one cared for democratie and everyone voted for their tribe. The 3rd party is Extreme Flip Floppers, the racists. The far east is where the riots are worse. The west does have some green spots it's not homogeneous. So same story as usual. With the president a western puppet following the diversity ideology. I've heard of whites indians and muslims on one side defending their stuff (and killing), bantus on the other. Just describing it as it is not saying it's good or bad. I'm not sure if the ANC is itself divided by ethnicity and tribe or not. Another smaller party is significant in the most eastern problematic region that is the Inkatha Freedom Party I wonder if they are separatists? Jacob Zuma’s son urges South Africa rioters to ‘protest & loot responsibly’. I know a lot of these guys hate migrants and indians (and muslims) are migrants. Idi is popular once again (he kicked out the indians). Doesn't seem they hate whites that much I mean they were there before most of these guys afaik, whites were here since emm 1488 (not a joke). "evidence linking ANC branches in KwaZulu-Natal to the violent protests" www.timeslive.co.za I wasn't around back then (I didn't know about investing I mean, didn't even know it existed) but I heard people invested in some countries like for example Ivory Coast, especially sugar there, and ignored the ethnic risk and when it went boom they lost everything, don't be that guy. Maybe they use this as an excuse to disarm the population. If that happens genocide will be just around the corner. Then prob gets recycled. Half of Rwanda eco growth comes from Paul Kagame pulling a sad face when he meets a western leader, and them sending money as a result. GDP growth is something ridiculous like 10%. The Hutu breed like rabbits, so the Tutsi convinced them they were gods to rule them, the white man ruined that, now they use guilt to continue their rule GG. Maybe whites pay the price in blood then use guilt to once again rule the majority. The country would become rich again, great investment. I'm too old to be an idealist, I am a realist. The idealists are the ones with blood on their hands. Too dumb to not be in denial about it. Stupid people are worst than evil smart people since those ones refrain from pushing it too far out of fear of being stopped or punished. I don't think the russians used the word pogrom although they don't care about euphemisms, here is the source. Also Russians are taking over Africa militarly and don't believe in diversity and the west can't really do anything about it. Maybe Russia will intervene? Let a few russians get killed and ... With the collapsing west lighting candles, holding hands and singing songs as well as making diversity murals. I do not think NATO would win World War 3. The world really needs ground air missiles, all sorts of nuke countermeasures plan A plan B all the way to Z. Not having serious large scale measures and just counting on love and friendship is such terrible risk management. russianembassyza.mid.ru Of course I can't give any sort of timing. In the immediate term I hope this ends up shaking markets a bit.
by MrRenev
9
USD/ZAR UPDATED ANALYSISYou can see if we put both the DXY and USD/ZAR next to each other how well they correlate at the moment. Both charts have retraced respectively giving a strong narrative that if the DXY respects the trend and moves higher, that USD/ZAR will follow suite. The South African economy has taken a huge knock this week due to extended Covid restrictions but more importantly, the looting of major retail enterprises. Yesterday South Africa released it's Retail Sales YY* results which came in at 15.8% which, when compared to the prior results of 95.7%, is insane. If you piece all of this information together then it is reasonable to assume that the Rand will continue to weaken against the Dollar for the foreseeable future.
Long
by skypointmarkets