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ZAR

4h USDZAR updateYesterday’s pullback was a bit deeper than expected following the US initial jobless claims result. The US jobless claims came in higher than expected and coupled with the lower-than-expected US CPI results from earlier this week, markets are betting on a Fed rate pause sooner than initially anticipated. My record of trying to predict the Fed has been poor so I’ll just stick to my technical and fundamental analysis. The rand managed to pull the pair onto the 61.8% fibo retracement rate at 18.01 following the jobless data from the US which was the second wave of the next 5-wave impulse. I expect the third wave to push the pair towards the resistance rate of 18.72 (the current yearly high). A break below 18.01 will however invalidate this expected move and the 5-wave impulse. The next resistance rates to keep an eye are 18.11, 18.21 and 18.33. A break above 18.33 will confirm the move to 18.71. Technically on the 4h, the RSI bounced off the oversold zone and the MACD is rolling over and a cross-over buy signal seems imminent. The daily MACD is still holding a buy signal, all of which is rand negative. Additionally, the DXY is heavily oversold and a bounce in the broad-based dollar strength could create headwinds for the ZAR.
Long
by Goose96
2
USDZAR next 5-waveThe USDZAR pair completed an ABC corrective wave at the end of March after the higher-than-expected 50bps rate hike from the SARB allowed the rand to pull the pair into the support range between the 50%- and 38.2% Fibo retracement rates at 17.68 and 17.92, respectively. Since the start of April, the dollar (DXY) has found some support in the range between 101.36 and 101.81 and as a result, has the rand on the ropes heading into the 2Q2023. The aggressive bounce out of the blue support range is indicative of a first impulse wave and I suspect this next 5-wave impulse will see the pair complete the 5th wave of its major cycle which will push the pair onto its 2020 peak at 19.35. (Please see attached my previous idea for the 1H2023 for a wider view) Technically there is a buy signal on the MACD indicator which is rand negative, and the daily RSI has room to move higher before hitting overbought zones.
Long
by Goose96
USD/ZAR pre-SARB rate decision.The SARB will release their latest interest rate decision on Thursday and expectations are pointing to another 25bps hike which will push the repo rate to 7.50%. I haven’t posted an idea on the pair in quite a while but a whole lot has happened since my last idea. March has been a very turbulent month for the local unit, but the rand is holding up relatively well in the month of March given the recent fragilities in the US banking sector. As things stand the rand has depreciated just over 1% against the dollar this month. The rand however slid to a three year low of 18.71 earlier this month but it did manage to pull the pair to a monthly low of 18.01 on the back of a broad-based weaker dollar. Currently it seems as if the pair has completed an abc corrective pattern following the 5-wave impulse which saw the pair climb from the yearly low 16.70 to 18.71 earlier this year. In the beginning of the year, I predicted that the pair would hit the 2020 high of 19.36 in the 1H2023 (I tagged the idea in this post). I’m not prepared to stick my neck out just yet to confirm my previous idea haha however a break above the yearly high of 18.71 could confirm the move as it will signal another impulse move higher. A re-test of the pair’s 50-day MA rate currently at 17.90 is still on the cards given the down trend on the daily RSI and sell signal on the MACD. The 50-day MA coincides with the 38.2% Fibo retracement rate of 17.91 and we would need a convincing break below this level in order to invalidate the move north of 19.00. Currently the 23.6% Fibo rate of 18.22 and the neckline of the parallel channel is holding support for the pair. Fundamentally there is not much supporting the rand. Commodity prices had a woeful first quarter off the back of the 10%+ declines in brent crude oil. Credit markets (US 10year yields) have seen massive daily swings following the fragilities in the banking sector which is eroding risk-on investor sentiment. The only thing that will be fundamentally rand positive is some degree of stabilisation of the US debt market (US 10-year bond yields) and higher commodity prices. As long as the credit markets remain unstable the rand won't be able to gain from its carry trade advantage. In summary; critical supports = 17.90 and 17.68, major resistance = 18.60 and 18.71.
by Goose96
Rand relief still in playI’m just revising my previous idea. My view for a pullback has not changed. On the 4h the MACD looks set to cross to a sell signal while we still have a degree of bearish divergence on the RSI. A break below 18.35 will allow the rand to pull the pair lower towards the 23.6 Fibo rate at 18.10. I do however expect some support in the range between 18.17 and 18.22. The longer-term move towards the parallel channel neckline and blue 61.8% Fibo retracement rate of 17.83 (as per my previous idea) still seems probable given the overbought status of the dollar across the board. I however do not see the rand pulling the pair below 17.83-17.87 at this stage.
Short
by Goose96
Rand pullbackTechnical indicators and fundamentals are lining up for a reasonable rand pull back as per my previous idea. I expect the rand to pull the pair lower onto the 23.6% Fibo retracement rate and psychological rate of 18.00. A break below 18.00 will see the pair fall onto the critical support on the blue 61.8% Fibo retracement rate of 17.84 which coincide with the neckline of the broken upward channel and the black 38.2% Fibo retracement rate. Fundamentals which are supporting some relief for the battered rand are most notably the easing of the selling pressure on US bonds. The US 10-year yield declined for the past two sessions after touching a high of 3.975% and is currently sitting at 3.865%. This will in turn cause the upward pressure on the dollar (DXY) to lose momentum. Additionally selling pressure on US equity markets are also subsiding. All of these factors are rand positive as it supports risk-on investor sentiment. Technically on the 4h there is bearish divergence on the RSI while we have a sell signal on the MACD. On the daily, the MACD buy signal is rolling over while the RSI is deep in overbought zones. All of which are rand positive.
Short
by Goose96
1
Wide turbulent ranges for the ZARReferring back to my long-term idea posted in January (linked below “1H2023 USD/ZAR weekly timeframe”) I believe that the pair has started its 5th impulse wave higher towards the 2020 high around the 19.30’s after the failed break below the critical support rate of 16.80. The rand has depreciated for five consecutive weeks since mid-January which has seen the local unit slide roughly 7.65%. The economic calendar for this week is a heavy one with a host of local and international events and data prints which is expected to throw the pair into a wide trading range. Locally, SA’s finance minister will present the updated budget tomorrow. The main point of discussion that investors will look out for is Eskom and it is anticipated that the government will advance their plans to take on a sizeable amount of debt from the ailing power utility. The rand also faces a potential grey listing by the FATF this week. Honestly, don’t expect any local factors that will be rand positive anytime soon. Internationally, Wednesday’s FOMC meeting results will be released which will probably just support the Fed’s recent hawkish sentiment. To wrap up the week, US GDP results for 4Q2022 will be released and on Friday the US PCE price index will be updated, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. It’s difficult to make a call how these data prints will influence investor sentiment. Despite all the above factors that are undoubtedly rand negative, the rand could pull the pair lower towards the 61.8% Fibo rate of 17.84 if risk-on sentiments flow into the markets following the FOMC minutes, US GDP and PCE data prints. The rand tends to pullback aggressively after an uptrend, it overshoots like a rubber band to the top and bottom side. If this pullback materializes, buying at rates around 17.80 may be favourable. The support levels currently sit on the psychological rate of 18.00, 23.6% Fibo at 17.95 and then the critical support at 17.83 which coincides with the neckline of the broken parallel channel. I’m personally looking to leave buy limit orders between 17.75 and 17.85. A break above 18.28/18.30 will invalidate the expected pullback. Technically the daily MACD seems to be rolling over and could cross to a sell signal while the RSI is sitting in overbought zones at 67.85 which supports this expected pullback. Two factors that also support this USD/ZAR pullback is my expected pullback in the DXY and the fact that Platinum is finding support around $920 per oz (ideas linked below).
Short
by Goose96
3