Morning Star on GoldFieldsA Morning Star pattern has formed on JSE:GFI which is a bottom reversal signal. This coupled with a bounce of the bottom support strengthens the signal.
A Morning Star is found after a preceding down trend where the 2nd candles body must be below the 1st and 3rd candles body. The 3rd candle must close above 50% of the 1st red body.
I will enter this trade long and try to reach the target at the top resistance.
ZAR
Short on Anglo AmericanJSE:AMS has reached a resistance level just above the 83000 level. It reached this high on the 22nd of March bu then retraced all the way down to the 72000 level.
Before this, the last time it reached these levels was in April 2010.
My thoughts are that it is going to retrace downwards again and I am looking for a move back down to the 72000 level. If it does break through the previous high, we can see a move towards the 90000 area.
But my bet is on a short.
Sideways channel on BidvestJSE:BVT is trading in a sideways channel and has been since mid-November last year. It has reached the top of the channel and will most likely bounce on the resistance and continue downwards. I will enter a short around the 21600 level if it goes down.
Our target level will be the bottom of the channel around the 19000 level, which is also a significant level because round numbers tend to act like magnets for the price action.
If it fails to bounce off and breaks through the resistance, I will consider entering a long position.
EURZAR 1:3 Risk Reward SHORT (Fundamental + Technical Analysis)Zar
Fundamental Quant Score: +33
- Retail sales grew to 1.2% showing consumer confidence in South Africa
- PPI breached forecsats by 0.1% which is healthy for producers
- Interest rate decisions had no signs of dovish action so investor money flow should continue flowing into South Africa
- Trade balance showing a huge surplus
Technical Analysis
- Daily Sell zone
- Daily hammer head/ evening star formation
- Rejection from the current zone shows big money flowing out the EUR and into ZAR
- Wait for a 4HR lower low then a retrace to confirm the move ad possibly enter in that region depending on the fundamentals and technical outcome
Some good signs for ZAR and EUR has continued to weaken the past week
USDZAR 1:4 Risk Reward SHORT (Fundamental Analysis)USD Fundamentals
Fundamental Quant Scores dipped to a negative -3
- Continuuing Jobless claims increased by 6,000 suggesting more US citizens are claiming credit to help support their lifestyle.
- Latest GDP for Q4 showed a less than forecast outcome missing it by 0.2%
- Pending Home sales a huge leading indicator dropped to -1% when forecast to stay above 0
- More gas supplies suggests less capital efficiency and more asset storage, so less vehicles are being used, manufacturing is slowing down and is bearish for GAS which can also affect CAD
ZAR
Fundamental Quant score +33 shows bullish signal
- PPI increased to 0.3% showing South African Producers are bullish of the ZAR
- Interest Rates stayed the same with no signs of change, suggesting investors from abroad can take advantage of their high interest rates.
- Retail sales on 20th grew by 1.2% showing a strong consumer population
Reversal on BidvestJSE:BVT has formed a "open/close above stomach" pattern which is a strong reversal signal.
It works as follows: After preceding downtrend, the second candle opens and closes above 50% of the long red body.
Along with today's upward movement, we can expect it to reach our target at the next resistance level
USD/ZAR Long Idea - Possible TeacupPlease refer to the linked idea below, which has so far played out well. We now see in addition to this linked trade, a possible teacup. We see price retraced to the 50% key fib level before making an impulsive move to the upside. I am watching for breakout from the handle before considering a buy position to the next key level as noted. Fundamentally, Moody's is set to release it's credit rating of South Africa this Friday, 4/29/19. If the credit rating is downgraded we could see further deterioration of the rand. This idea is for educational and demonstration purposes. Trade at your own risk. Please also refer to the linked trade idea below.
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