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Yields / Fed Funds / Rates / Inflation / 007s / TLT / ZN / ZBYou can't fix silly. You can't fix stupid. The Bond Market isn't going to fix anything, it assures ruin. ____________________________________________________ Buy the Dip hasn't quite worked out. TLT will head to Sub 52. You were warned long ago exactly what is happening would. And explained in no uncertain terms exactly why. DX back to 125? Yeah... it's how you end up in ruin. Europe first. TNX Yield times 2.81 - follow along or lose.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by HK_L61
3
TNX ZN TKT ZB - 10Year / 20Year / 30YearSh_t Mixed remain Bonds... every flight to Safety has been utterly and systematically crushed. It will be again and again as our Bond Market losses its Pillars of which there are 4. One by one these are failing. Longer-term, the lose/lose proposition will compound. _____________________________________________________________________________ Short term, we'll see how YCC and an overall Market Panic can trend Yields. The Fed has permitted the Bond Market to generate the necessary adjustments. Strenght - historically has been in control of only the short end. Operation twist is no longer relevant, the FED can simply clip coupons and trend into expiration of Holdings while reinvesting across the entire Curve. Sadly, engaging in Yield Curve Control (YCC) crossed the Rubicon. My thesis has been proven entirely correct - instability by design.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
ZN - 10 Year Note 2 HourNews this coming week will impact Markets in a broad fashion. ZN can see a larger RT to overhead POs as can ZB (30Yr) should The FED engage in larger YCC interventions, and I believe they will intervene heavily. Macro Data Ahead: MONDAY, MAY 16 8:30 am Empire state manufacturing index May TUESDAY, MAY 17 8:30 am Retail sales April -- 0.8% 8:30 am Retail sales excluding vehicles April 9:15 am Industrial production index April 9:15 am Capacity utilization April 10 am NAHB home builders' index May 10 am Business inventories (revision) March WEDNESDAY, MAY 18 8:30 am Building permits (SAAR) April 8:30 am Housing starts (SAAR) April 8:30 am Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index May THURSDAY, MAY 19 8:30 am Initial jobless claims May 14 8:30 am Continuing jobless claims May 7 10 am Existing home sales (SAAR) April FRIDAY, MAY 20 8:30 am Advance services report Q1
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
TNX - 10Yr Yields Sell Offers and Bond VX / Trouble Bond Bagholders just never learn - this Secular Cult is doomed to extinction. The two-year Treasury yield posted its biggest single-day jump since the market volatility of March 2020. Of course, this was after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell promoted the Policy Flip Flop that the Fed will raise rates in March, and left the screen porch door open for a quicker than-anticipated pace of rate increases. The Dot Plot is wiggling in excitement. IN reality, the FED will begin to Temper expectations. It is what they do - Lie Cheat Steal / Delay. 10 Yr Yields have seen another fantastic ROC-driven Spike which advanced well ahead of the Pre-Spring Meltup in 2021. __________________________________________________________________ TNX will provide a very large indication as to how the preset Wedge on the ES/NQ resolve, likely this week... Keep it in purview at all times, sudden violent reactions are to be expected.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
TLT - 20Yr Bond ETFThe Monthly Chart continues to expand in Range. This is interesting as the Range Broadens the implications are quite Dire longer term. TLT was sold heavily prior to the ROC SPike in TNX. ZN was sold on Volume as well, an Instrument we have repeatedly discussed for its weakening structure. __________________________________________________________ Attempting to apply "Convention and Rationale" to an aging Trend is generally, an Idea whose validity should begin to come into question. FASB 56 alone is enough to bring the operations within the Shadows of the Bond Market under duress over time. It is clear the BIS is backstopping this operation - at what cost, we can only surmise. ___________________________________________________________ The Real Issue moving forward for the Bond Complex is one of simplicity. Rates will, in the Short Ter react to Policy and the perceived threat of Inflation. Shadow Operations will require time to unfold, but we believe this process has begun, it will not be brought into he light of Day any time soon, but will eventually, appear in the form of unexplained loss of confidence around the Globe. This will, of course, be devastating to the US Dollar. rendering it a 50 Level once 82 and then 77 are broken. _____________________________________________________________ The competition between China and the United States is well underway and is accelerating on many fronts. With the US Losing its advantages due to its inability to produce Value across former dominant Sectors of Global Trade - a 22nd Century pivot to Asia will continue to gain in both scope and scale, as well as velocity. Financial Isolationism within the approaching rebalancing of Global financial Arrangements will render the US to a weighted SDR status with less than favorable terms and conditions. This will have a devastating effect on the US Bond Market. The curve will be converted to a Perpetual Duration with Principals retired. A balance sheet liability which cannot be reduced without far greater and far more insidious distortions. It can never be eliminated. Never, it is not mathematically possible. Therefore it will be erased to bring balance. Think of it as the FDIC/SPIC coming to save $250K of your $20 Million. You lose, they win. They default in an extraordinary manner and provide token assurance that... one day... they swear to make you whole. It will never happen. ___________________________________________________________ This is axiomatic, pure, and simple. Regardless of the Gyrations... The Future is not "Uncertain" with respect to Bonds and how they will be all but eliminated.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61