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Short Bonds - why, and market review Simple chart - There is a small dotted green line up top showing you divergence in the RSI. You can see what happened, Bonds went way up. Now we have a much bigger divergence the other way in red. So this sell off that saw the ES touched the 4500 area three times this week reminds me of the September low at 4250 same price action - which thrust up 500 points. Both the Nasdaq and E Mini Futures returned to almost exactly 50% Fib weekly retracement - not luck, not a sell off in my opinion but just enough to confuse and liquidate a bunch of people. I am short vol through a long position in SVXY outright and short bonds through TLT through 154 PUT options. The market is off the lows but most likely there will be an opportunity Monday to get in. My upside target 4620 on the ES Futures to take these positions off - however I think we can go to ALL TIME HIGHS before puking epically - as the Fed taper is happening but we'll only get the details at Dec 15th Fed meeting. If we get back to 4500 area in the ES - I will look to take a long positions through Futures, however did want that risk on over the weekend. The orange arrows are a measure of volatility. Six hour chart.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by Maximilianned
1
10Yr ZN - Wandering Bishop - ROCsEnraged Evergrande Investors weild Laterns and Pitchforks. The carnage for hostages provides a demonstration to our thesis for Banking and Bonds. Perhaps a soft default in October when the Government runs its tap dry temporarily. Further evidence, things are not well at all. The chart illustrates the First Accident 2020 Covid Event. The second, required YCC to brings circumstance out of control with 10 yr ROCs spiking at the fastest rate in History. Perhaps the 3rd time pushes on through into the Bond Kingdom Revolution. We shall see, we continue to build the Big Lick for Bonds.
FRED:THREEFYTP10
by HK_L61
24
TLT - 150 Puts - ZN 133.125 TLT continues to Wedge out into the Break Down. Althought the Yield Curve appears to be heading into an inversion into 2022, the Long End of the Curve remains in peril... Countdown to Depression is ticking into Q2-Q3 2022. Fed language and statements are beginning to shift into 2022 indicating they are off balance NOW. Volaility will increase well ahead of the Fed's change in stance. We anticipate a pullback in the VIX Curve into Settlement providing cover for today's Squeeze in the Index Instruments. AAPL and Tesla have been used to provide adjustments to both the ES and NQ, These will be transitory... as Q3 EPS warnigns need a distraction... China incidently decided on MOnday - "there is too much completition in EV's within China" Adios Tesla, Giga Berlin and Texas will have to manage... China closing the doors on Tesla. Confidence will have the intended influence on the Bond Markets, for now it's game on into completion of the Wedge in 10Yr Yields. Risk off dead ahead. There is no recovery in the Economy, rather there are increasingly dangerous issues which will begin to manifest shortly. We will be continuuing to Build Out a Large Put Position in TSLA, APPL, ARKK, AMC. Crypto Scam LiteCoin took the short WalMArt CON to undermine confidence in the space. A 20% decline in LC took chasers downtown in mere seconds. Crimnal Fraud in the Space is an operating axiom.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
58
TLT - The Madness of Mass Delusions10Yr Yields declined as international Capital Flows began demanding dollars out of the fear as to what is occurring outside the USSA. This implies, as well, a robust demand for perceived "Safety" - the very last thing it actually is. Europe, as we have indicated for months now, remains a basket case. For as bad as it is here, it's worse there. However, this is short term in its duration as the USSA is losing favor as a "Partner" of actual substance. The Long Con remains in trade. It will get a lot worse outside the USA which remains bullish on capital inflows. Simply watch France as they are teetering on another Bastille Moment. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ That said, the objective of the Level Pullers is not friendly. Sending hoards of cash into the Fed Reverse Repurchase Market - reduces the cash in the Banks. This ONLY accelerates the liquidity crisis, which, in the very short term can have an important effect on Yields. It is temporary. Christine LaGarde, has been inferring that a policy shift is taking place which will be a transition in 2022. Stimulus policies have totally failed and the negative interest rates have destroyed the European Bond Market. Inflows to USTs is axiomatic for the EU, for the UK... not so much as they have shown a clear and present desire to position to China's Bond Market... slowly. The ECB's ONLY tool remaining is the rather hurried rush to digital currency ASAP for Europe is out of time. It will not go over well and lead to immense Social unrest. France, Ireland, Spain, Greece, Italy won't simply roll-over. 80 Central Banks around the Globe desire digital currencies according Lagarde - "We think that it's a duty of us to actually have available digital currencies that would operate to the benefit of consumers." There is nothing the governments ever do that is for the benefit of consumer citizens unless it benefits the Government 1st. LaGarde intends to end Private Cryptocurrencies. In her own words - "funny business" in Crypto needs to end, once and for all. They will be regulated out of business... plan for it. When you replace "Currency" which comes into existence from DEBT, Governments no longer need DEBT MARKETS aka Bonds. Currency no longer exists, Unlimited Pokemon Cards do however. The ability of the ECB to continue buying endless debt from its member states is coming to an end. Pressures to break up the EU is growing and this above all is driving the ECB to take drastic actions. They will cancel the Euro ahead of schedule, sending the FX Markets into a tailspin. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ UST Bond HODLers somehow believe this works well for them... it can in the very short term. Ultimately, the Tide begins to approach our shores as Confidence itself evaporates. The game of borrowing forever with no intention of paying anything back is coming to an end and with it the US Bond Markets. What will be the Value of your Bonds? They will become "Perpetual" - you will be allowed, permitted and forced to accept a coupon with no return of principal, that will be in Lock Down for good. Any/All protest from the SVM / Bong Community will have to provide critical rebuttal of the above for any further consideration. Unintelligent Echo is considered amorphous, Vapid, Delusional, Degeneracy and participation in its own demise. We are no longer entertaining idiocy. - Hunter Killer
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
21
ZN - 10 Yr Note - Continued Move to Higher Yields - ZN TLT ZBTLT is beginning it's terminal phase for the next decline. We Sold to Open TLT this morning, taking our First Position at our Target, with further Sells to 150s Set. Out dated Maturities, we have been suggesting for the past month are due for a large correction in Yields. Day to day noise is just that... Noise. Bond HODLers are convinced they have it figured out. They clearly do not or they would not be supporting an enterprise steeped in criminal activity. 3 Fed Members have now been admitted to Front Running Markets for their own Benefit. CONfidence inspiring.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by HK_L61
1
10 Year Treasury Note - ROC's Building againRates of Change for Yields will face increasing Competition in the coming weeks. We anticipate further to quickly be met with YCC. Yields have been mixed at lows, attempting to Hang their Man. Central Banks receive their orders on High. Governments can no longer borrow to fund their annual spending. Digital "Currency" proposals from the WEF via Lagarde at the IMF, Echoed @ the BIS and then it's stepchild the ECB. The Debt can of worms can no longer be kicked down the road. Europe is in the final stages of collapsing under the Existing System. This will spread Cajun style, like a swamp Gator that eats everything that moves in the DEBT SWAMP. Rumors (Credible) of the Federal Reserve accepting Direct Deposits is halting the Primary Dealer network of Banks (First Abusers) who, via Trading Arms and partners such as BlackRock and VanGuard and many other smaller boutiques such as Gelber - have been able to manipulate ALL Markets without consequence... The Federal Government required them to sell their DEBT. This effort is very clearly coming to a decided end. Globally, the entire Financial System and edifice is being dumped on its Head.
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
3
TLT - 150 Puts now Active - ZN 134s STO / ZB 16490 STOsTLT Gap Fill was the Fill. 150 Put entry completed on GF. November 150s now solidly in profit for this trade, B/E is stop as VX enters and true range appears at 2:45PM EST. This is an aggressive SELL on TLT for us. We believe TLT ends up being Sold Hard. ZN/ZB tend to lead these declines. The Setups in both ZN & ZB are complete. We hold large positions in both: ZN @ 134.00 x 25 ZB @ 164.90 @ 25 Our largest and ONLY Position outside of AMC SELLs. We believe this trade will see 3% at minimum, it will be very quick and very dirty as ROCs expand. Bond Curve >/= 10yr in confirmed SELL.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by HK_L61
2
10Yr - A Very Clear Capital Return PanicSince January there has been a stealth accumulation out the Curve. In March it began to quietly accelerate. While Algo's drove ZN into the 131s, buyers were gobbling up each and every drive lower, building an outsized position which saw Volume peak in May from May 2nd to May 31st. Dark Pools began their acceleration in March. There is a clear trend deeply concerned with an "Event" - one which saw Volumes begin to accelerate June 16th. Volatility in Bonds should begin to pick up dramatically. Extreme Caution is warranted for Equity Complex, in particular Technology and Regional Banking. The VIX Curve, specifically SEP/OCT spread should be closely watched. We are seeing clear signs of Backwardation that could quickly invert.
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
PLAY IT SHORT ENTRY PROBABILITY |T-BOND FUTURE - ZB1! - 30MNThank you for your shares and likes! Much appreciated! __________________________________________________________________ We have identified the channels which have helped to see trade other markets correlated to the ZB1! US 30 Years Future (Like GOLD for example). See how the market is bouncing around those lines. THE BLACK LINE We have identified probable line illustrating the "what the price should be", The Bottom Black Line. If the Bottom Black Line break, the probability to get profits in the short direction will be amazing. For the recent past history, this Bottom Black Line has seen pullback up. Staying in a constant uptrend overall. THE RED LINE We have identified a Top Red Line which is probably the best place to enter short from. But will the market find enough power to reach the $175 mark? Probability exists since we have seen a super squeeze of seller recently. Now small candle sticks a re running in the upward direction, one after the other like if nothing happened before. Nice 40 to 45 degree angle. No coincidence, the market has closed at the top on the channel. A critical point from which anything can happen. The market could probably break up and test highs or go down staying in the blue channels traced. WHAT TO DO? It is more likely that you make good decision only when the market approaches those Red or Black line. In between, anything can happen for the moment. So 171.1, 172.23 and 175 will possibly be the most important prices. So, probably, only wait and observe for the moment. This is also trading.
CBOT:ZB1!
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas