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Zb1

Looking ahead to next week in the S&P (July 25th, 2022)With things like housing statistics, employment data, and earnings from heavyweights such as GOOG, MSFT, and 3M, next week looks to be filled with potential market moving events. Most notably however is FED Chair Jerome Powell's press conference on Wednesday afternoon. While its no secret that we're headed into a world of higher interest rates, FED speak always has a tendency to move markets one way or another - but before we look ahead, here is a quick snapshot of last weeks action: S&P500: +2.3% Nasdaq: +3.3% Russell: +3.3% ------------------- Technology (XLK): +6.5% Energy (XLE): +4.5% Financials (XLF): +2.3% Heading into next week, SPY is looking at an expected move of +/- 9.8 on 24%IV ... (QQQ +/- 10.3, 32%IV; IWM +/- 5.6, 30%IV). SPY appears to be gaining steam on the shorter time frames (4HR, etc.), and I think the sectors driving the rally have more room to run, so my primary idea is for the rally to continue over the intermediate term. There may be some turbulence along the way, so perhaps a retest of the top of the previous range around 390 before ultimately heading toward 415. However, don't ignore the bonds. They have seen a solid rally off their lows in June. If momentum can continue, bond prices could accelerate up to 149"00, which would almost certainly lead to weakness in equities. Please note: these are not predictions - they are just my ideas about how I'm seeing the markets and are to help me formulate my own trades. If you find this helpful, please consider liking, commenting, following, boosting, baking cookies, setting me up with your single friends, blah blah blah blah...
AMEX:SPYLong
by InnerMotionTrading
3
Potential Bearish Divergence forming in $DXYWith interest rates climbing steeply, the dollar has been strengthening against the $DXY currencies and has made a forceful move to the upside. As of the present date (4/12/22), there's a considerable Bearish Divergence forming. Its certainly possible that if Dollar could gain momentum over time - but it could also set up some nice trading opportunities if it doesn't. As is often the case, the Dollar has been exhibiting a negative correlation to the S&P for most of this year. Therefore, S&P products could be a good place to take long trades on this idea in the near term. Other ideas could include being long bonds - either with futures or a product like the TLT, and or long the Euro - either with currency futures or the EURUSD FOREX pair. This is something I'll be watching closely over the days and weeks ahead.
TVC:DXYShort
by InnerMotionTrading
$TLT, Bonds long ideaAfter the whole round trip that started when covid hit, I think we are getting closer to a big, long position in bonds. The price range on the chart is where I will start buying and expecting to see seller exhaustion and trouble pushing it down further. Sentiment is really weak and you have people late to party trying to short right now to pick pennies in front of a steamroller. As an ideal target for $TLT we are talking $150 at least, so, due to the magnitude of the move, we are talking about a long term position or around 6 months out. Obviously seeing the volatility in this period and the little liquidity in markets I could be wrong, meaning the move much quicker. GL
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by PurpleGoat
ZB1! (10 Year T-bonds ) , H4 Bearish dropType: Bearish drop Resistance: 152'02 Support: 155'27 Pivot: 154'22 Preferred case: With price moving below the ichimoku cloud , we have bearish bias that price will drop from our pivot of 154'22 in line with the horizontal pullback resistance to our 1st resistance of 152'02 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 161.8% Fibonacci extension . Alternative Scenario : Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 155'27 in line with the horizontal pullback resistance. Fundamentals: With the uncertainty of the RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict and the implications on the US economy due to increase increase sanctions. Bond prices will continue to increase as increase frequency of rate hikes seems more unlikely. As fundamentals and technicals align, ZB1! might be a good opportunity to look into.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by Genesiv
Title :ZB1! ( 10 Year T-bond) , H4 bullish continuation Title :ZB1! ( 10 Year T-bond) , H4 bullish continuation Resistance: 159'26 Pivot: 155'19 Support: 154'11 Preferred case: Price is near pivot level of 155'19 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and can potentially go to the graphical swing high level of 159'26 in line with 100% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator. Alternative scenario: Price dip to the support level of 154'11 in line with 1272% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Fundamentals: With the uncertainty of the RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict and the implications on the US economy due to increase increase sanctions. Bond prices will continue to increase as increase frequency of rate hikes seems more unlikely. As fundamentals and technicals align, ZB1! might be a good opportunity to look into.
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by Genesiv
10 year T-Bonds (ZB1!) , H4 Potential for bullish bounceTitle : 10 year T-Bonds (ZB1!) , H4 Potential for bullish bounce Type: Bullish bounce Resistance: 159'16 Pivot: 156'16 Support: 155'01 Preferred case: Price near buy entry level of 156'16 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially bounce from this level to the resistance level of 159'16 in which is also the graphical swing high level. Our bullish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator. Alternative scenario: Price dip to support level of 155'01 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Fundamentals: With the uncertainty of the RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict and the implications on the US economy due to increase increase sanctions. Bond prices will continue to increase as increase frequency of rate hikes seems more unlikely. As fundamentals and technicals align, ZB1! might be a good opportunity to look into.
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by SCLOWs
10 year T-Notes (ZB1!) H4 potential for bullish bounce Title : 10year T-Notes(ZB1!), H4 potential for bullish bounce Type : Bullish bounce Resistance: 159'04 Pivot : 156'05 Support : 155'02 Preferred case: Price is near pivot level of 156'05 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially go to the 1st resistance level of 159'04 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator as it is at support level. Alternative scenario: Price dip to support level of 155'02 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection Fundamentals: With RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict escalating , Treasury prices may increase as investors look into safe haven assets. As fundamentals and technicals align, it is a good opportunity when looking in to ZB1! .
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by SCLOWs
10 year T-note Futures ( ZB1! ) , H4 potential for bearish dipTitle: 10 year T-note Futures ( ZB1! ) , H4 potential for bearish dip Type: Bearish Dip Resistance : 161'08 Pivot : 160'11 Support : 156'19 Preferred Case: Price is near pivot level of 160'11 which is also the graphical overlap resistance. Price can potentially dip to the support level of 156'19 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported the stochastic indicator as it is at resistance level, Alternative scenario: Alternatively price go to the resistance level of 161'08 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: The US has repeatedly stress that US troops will not be directly involved in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. However, the ramifications faced by the US due to heavy sanctions on Russia is not fully realized. Prices of bonds may continue to increase as investors continue to flee to safe haven assets. As technicals and fundamentals do not align , there is a risk on factor when looking in to ZB1!.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by SCLOWs
10 year T-note Futures (ZB1!) , H4 potential for bearish dip Title: 10 year T-note Futures (ZB1!) , H4 potential for bearish dip Type: Bearish dip Resistance: 157'08 Pivot: 156'19 Support: 154'13 Preferred case: Price is near pivot level which is also a key graphical overlap resistance. Price can potentially dip to the support level of 154'13 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by the stochastic level as it is at resistance level. Alternative scenario: Price can break this key graphical overlap level and go to the 1st resistance level of 157'08 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: With RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict escalating , Treasury prices may increase as investors look into safe haven assets. As fundamentals and technicals do not align, there is a risk on factor when looking in to ZB1!.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by SCLOWs