Corn Futures ZC supply and demand forecast analysisSupply and Demand and any trading strategy can be quite overwhelming at times. When looking at the Corn Futures ZC weekly timeframe we can see there is a super strong weekly demand imbalance created around 3600. The strength of that demand imbalance is quite strong, we already have price reacting to it, we are expecting Corn Futures ZC to rally higher, there is a lot of room for Corn Futures to keep on moving to the upside.
You can use Corn Futures options or various ETFs to trade Corn Futures as well, you are not exclusively limited to the Corn Futures ticker. We don’t need any specific tools to learn how to trade Futures or Corn. You can pay attention to Corn fundamental analysis or even Corn Seasonal analysis, but all that will be a lot of hard work just to learn that fundamentals where good to sell Corn Futures but you did not know there was a pretty strong weekly demand imbalance in control and you should have gone long on Corn Futures ZC instead of shorts.
We can day trade and do intraday on Corn Futures as well. Supply and demand can be applied to any market and asset. Futures intraday and day trading is also possible by using simple rules that will help you locate brand new imbalances to trade. You can use other trading strategies to day trade futures and Corn futures. By knowing there is a very strong weekly demand imbalance in control, you can use other trading strategies to plan your intraday trades.
Corn
"Top and Bottom Analysis on Corn" by ThinkingAntsOk4H Chart Explanation:
- Price is on a Micro Ascending Channel.
- Bearish Divergence on MACD.
- If price breaks the Channel, it has potential to move down towards the Middle Support Zone first and, then, towards the Support Zone.
Weekly Vision:
Daily Vision:
Updates coming soon!
Corn Sep 24 SHORTM pattern
Looking at our daily continuous corn contract we will first use our indicators such as RSI, Stoch RSI, and
MACD to determine possible directional position.
Or RSI is heading down the slightest but has been at this high level three major times with no success to
break through and has gone flat. Our Stoch RSI shows slight less buying pressure with the buy RSI above the sell
RSI, therefore still showing slight, not strong but still bullish presence.
Our MACD shows overbought conditions with our buy and sell looking to cross for selling pressure.
(Only 1 real bearish signs with a reasonable half bullish indicator.)
A 10R chart will show a more favorable move to the downside which will break it through the latest low.
an upside move using this technique is unlikely due to previous candle strength after Sep 17 drop.
We are in lower lows and lower highs pattern and are testing the third resistance touch with little strength
to break out.
Corn to make a Head and Shoulders Pattern? Bullish Agriculture!I have been trading the agricultural commodities much more lately. On a long term approach (investing) I am bullish agricultural because I see food supplies diminishing due to weather. Just this Spring and Summer, crop yields did not produce as much as before and according to information on Martin Armstrong's blog, farmers planted crops late in the East due to a lingering winter. I expect these weather uncertainties to keep occurring.
Soil in the west is also diminishing. This can easily be remedied through things such as Zinc and other things like phosphate etc but don't want to get too scientific here.
What this means is that in the future we will likely transition to indoor/greenhouse farming.
Another bullish aspect is China. If you follow my work, I have said the only reason China would come to make a trade deal/truce is if their credit problem worsens, and if their food issue worsens. China has been hit hard with the swine flu and the army virus and the government is subsidizing food prices, especially pork. This could be a more short term/intermediate term catalyst.
Onto the charts. A good confluence for Corn. We hit a major support/flip zone at around the 3.45 zone.
You can see the downtrend with its lower highs and lower lows. They are well defined. Remember, by definition once a lower high swing is broken and we stop making new lower lows, the downtrend is now nullified. We either range or begin an uptrend.
We can see the lower high swing at 3.60 was broken and also retested. Buyers are coming on here.
On the daily we are now awaiting our first HIGHER LOW swing in a possible new uptrend which we could have here. This would make a head and shoulders pattern and the confirmed higher low swing once we break above the neckline at the 3.70 zone.
Overall this is looking good. We could see a move up to the 4.00 level.
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ, /ZC, /ZSEARNINGS:
No earnings announcements this coming week in underlyings with highly liquid options with ideal rank/implied metrics (>70% rank/>50% 30-day implied).
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS:
SLV (82/29)
GDX (74/33)
TLT (71/15)
GDXJ (60/37)
GLD (59/15)
XOP (35/37)
Precious metals ... again, with GDXJ offering the best volatility metrics (>50% rank/>35% 30-day implied)
BROAD MARKET:
IWM (23/19)
SPY (13/13)
QQQ (11/18)
EEM (7/16)
EFA (15/11)
FUTURES:
/SI (82/28)
/UB (71/5)
/ZB (71/12)
/ZN (61/6)
/ZS (63/28)
/GC (59/15)
/ZC (52/28)
Pictured here is a corn short strangle in the October/40 days 'til expiry cycle with strikes camped out around the 1 standard deviation on the put side at 14 delta and the call side at the 13 delta strike, resulting in a delta neutral setup supposedly paying 4.00 at the mid price with break evens at 336 and 409. Naturally, that'll have to be priced out during regular market hours. There also may be some benefit in going out to November, where the implied volatility is at 25.3% versus October's 24.1% and where implied volatility contracts from there into winter and spring with February at 20.5% and April at 17.5%.
An alternative trade would be in October beans; the 830/990 short strangle paying 4.75 with the short put erected at the one standard deviation strike on the put side, the call at the equally delta'd strike on the call. For contrast: corn's implied volatility term structure: October -- 23.3%, November 17.8%, December 19.2%, February 16.6%, April 15.8%.
Naturally, either of these setups can be transformed into defined risk, iron condor trades by buying wings.
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES:
Yowsa! VIX finished the week at sub-14 (13.74), so it's basically time to hand sit on what you put on in August volatility and wait for the next >20 pop to short.
"Top and Bottom Analysis on Corn" by ThinkingAntsOk4 Hour Chart Explanation:
- Price started its down move on the Resistance Zone.
- Now, it is on a Bearish Corrective Structure.
- It has potential to move down towards the Middle Support Zone and, then, the Support Zone indicated on the chart.
Check out our last predictions on CORN (they were really precise)!!!
Weekly Analysis:
Daily Analysis:
Updates coming soon!
Wait...I didn't have any CORN!Corn on the 4 hour chart looking interesting. A potential head and shoulders can occur. We have a left shoulder and we also have a head. Potentially making a right shoulder here.
Other confluences to increase our probabilities is the fact that the reversal is occurring at a support/flip zone at the 3.56 zone. Keep an eye on this. I don't trade agricultural commodities much, but I recently added corn, soybeans and wheat to my trading list.
Let us await for the right shoulder and higher low confirmation with a break above 3.70.
ZCK2020-ZCU2019 - Commodity Spread Trading on Corn FuturesZCK2020-ZCU2019
Spreads on corn futures almost reaching Take Profit.
Spreads are one of the most profitable forms of trading there are thanks to the statistical advantage on the seasonality of commodities.
If done respecting the rules of operation, you get on average a Winrate of 87% with a Risk Reward of 2/1.
Joe Ross is my greatest master in this field.
Corn bottomed?Corn bounced right off the range I mentioned on my last idea, Aggressive traders might go long here but it's probably best to wait for MACD signal and further strength. Seasonally corn is Not bullish at this time of the year, so it's best to be careful with longs
**If you're interested in joining a group of like-minded traders, send me a PM. This is NOT a subscription service, just bunch of average traders sharing insights in a FREE group
"Corn: going down as expected" by ThinkingAntsOkDaily Chart Explanation:
- Price bounced on the Major Resistance Zone and started the down move.
- It reached our first target for the bear move at the Middle Support Zone (4.00).
- Now, it has potential to move down towards our second target at the Support Zone (3.395).
- We are looking for sell setups on lower timeframes.
Check our our Weekly Vision. Updates coming soon!
Weekly Vision:
Looking for a tradeable low in Corntarget for short corn idea that I posted was hit, now I’m looking for a tradeable low, more downside is likely but it’s probably better to stay flat and let the market figure out from where to bounce and then get on the trend.
If 400 doesn’t hold, a low might form in the 380-391 region
** Just an idea NOT a forecast
"Short Setup on Corn (ZC1!)" by ThinkingAntsOk4 Hour Chart Explanation:
- Price bounced on the Resistance Zone (check it on the Weekly or Daily Vision).
- Price broke the Ascending Trendline.
- Price is, currently, on a Bearish Corrective Structure (ABC Elliot Count).
- If it breaks it at 4,215, the Short Move will be started.
- Our targets for that down move are the two Middle Support Zone and, finally, the Weekly Support Zone.
Check our Weekly and Daily Analysis. They can be really helpful for you!
Weekly Analysis:
Daily Analysis:
"Top and Bottom Analysis on Commodities: Corn" by ThinkingAntsOk4 Hour Chart Explanation:
- Price bounced on the Macro Resistance Zone and broke the Ascending Trendline.
- It is currently retesting the Resistance Zone (Pullback).
- If price starts its down path, we have two potential targets points: the Middle Support Zone at 3,782 and the Major Support Zone at 3,424.
Also, our Weekly and Daily Analysis are short views on the Corn.
Weekly Analysis:
Daily Analysis:
CORN LongCORN has broken out of a bullish descending wedge pattern to the upside, entered a bearish rising wedge, broken down and back-tested the previous resistance level before bouncing back. There are positive divergences on the charts which suggest a much longer up trend in play. These positive divergences can also be seen on the weekly and monthly charts of CORN which also firm up the thesis of a new long term uptrend. When measuring the height of the wedge pattern and adding it to the breakout point, the anticipated price coincides with a former support/resistance level.
Corn Weather Market Losing Steam?
In the ZCZ2019 chart, I see the potential for another leg up however I believe it could retreat down to test the current support line. On 4/30 I bought corn around $3.80 feeling the low had been put in, after a few discomforting days I was correct. Due to delayed plantings and not optimal weather looking forward the market exploded up. I exited this position around the $4.40 range and enjoyed the nice profit, skeptical the market could not bust through the $4.54 price level.
Now that the market has broken through that level of $4.54 I am not adding to a Spec long position, while there is certainly upside potential left, I feel the market will struggle in the coming days and weeks to continue the great run it has displayed over the past weeks. That does not mean I am ready to initiate a short position, I feel the upside potential of 8.5% to the upside is still greater than a potential selloff.
I will be keeping a close eye on the market in the coming days and weeks if we do continue to rise an additional 8.5% and reach $5.00 +/- I will be preparing to enter the market as a bear. I do not forsee a freefall taking place but do see the potential for significant price reductions if we reach these levels. For the time being, I remain patient, sitting on my hands.
**Educational purposes only**
ZC1! - What to expect on the 4hr - CORN FUTURESSo check my last chart to see where I told you what needed to happen to get here. Spoiler alert. I was spot on. Now we have a fresh high and fresh failed to gain. Not a bad place to get short with tight stop just above previous highs. BUT TO TRULY KNOW IF THIS IS THE TOP... you have to lose the high. Look for a close below the last leg that took you up and then get short on the pull back to test that previous local high. This could be the last pullback before the drop, if there are no closes above the top green line. But typically there is a significant pull back after it close below the last leg up and thats usually where I get in on trend reversal signals.
Corn/USD Bounce UpLooks bullish.. looking forward a retracement into +- 4 $ or emas line after it's challenging the resistance at $ 4.28
Indicator looks bullish, volume is rising rapidly.
DMI : +DMI is rising and -DMI is dropping hard creating a huge range between them, bullish also DMX is rising too.. bullish momentum is increasing
Macd : buy histogram is higher than the previous high.. bullish sign so far.
Volume MA is rising