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Corn

Cattle, Corn, S&P500Cattle, Corn, and S&P 500: The fundamentals may be different now compared to in 2008, but I think these 3 markets are well intertwined. The effect of a major drawdown in the equities could impact all markets for a time. It sure seems that Cattle have some strong fundamentals to make a run up as it did from 2010 to 2014, but the timing of when that potential run higher begins is a million-dollar question. If the equity markets find support, beef should be in the race to higher levels with energies and other commodities…. If equities crash further, be careful
CME:LE1!
by mtb1980
2
Corn and commitment of traders The market is not looking to find “Fair Value” in this current “Fear Driven” Market. Any thoughts on upside and downside risk above and/or below current prices should be considered… The fundamentals to support a bullish market remain in place for this corn market. I still believe the job of this market is to see prices high enough to ration demand. A narrow focus on crush, feed, and export demand could argue that price has not rationed demand just yet. I would not discount a potential run up to 9.50 or even 11.00. But other signals could be telling of demand rationing already. The strong dollar may not ration immediate demand, but it will ration future demand. Remember, this is a Futures Market. No chart attached - but the selloff across the equity markets needs to be monitored. Retail and fund investors have been more speculative into the current stock market and maintained highly leveraged (margined) positions. A continued sell off in equities could cause a major liquidity drain across all tradeable markets. Large Spec Fund’s may reduce their position out of the commodity space for some time. This will ration Paper demand…. Corn – Monthly Continuous: Competing with all time highs. Commercial Longs (blue): Mostly End users hedged corn, bought to protect margins. Currently more than 200k less contracts compared to this same time last year with a market that is almost a dollar higher (Divergence). But, currently in line with previous years. I am surprised they are not as excited this year to hold more long positions. If they do get excited, I assume that will cause the next strong run up. Commercial Shorts (yellow): Mostly elevators hedged corn bought from producer. Currently just over 1m short positions held. In line with 18’ and 19’ seasonal positions. Typically, a seasonal position between 800k and 1m shorts held by the commercials represents enough Natural selling to settle down the Corn Market. The commercial elevators appear to own a significant amount of corn. Is end user basis strong enough, and is the July/Sep inverse strong enough to move elevator owned bushels yet??? ** In theory elevators are Shorts and end users are Longs. But in this strong demand driven inverted market I expect there to be spread positions placed from both sides to add another layer of protection. All this just makes for a more challenging market when positions are lifted and can self feed a trend regardless of fundamentals and technicals ** Commercial Net (Green): The spread between the Shorts and the Longs (-400k) is not as much in favor of the shorts compared to last year, but still at a historically strong level. (Divergence) A seasonal turn in net positions usually indicates a top is near. Large Spec Funds (red): In a long and strong position, but again, not as strong as last year (Divergence). In most cases I believe the commercials drive the market more than the funds. The funds like to ride the wave. Combined, the Commercials can hold 1.5m to 2.0m contracts. The funds peak out just under 500k contracts… With that said they can still have a major influence on the market, especially when open interest is low. Open Interest: Currently at elevated levels compared to the 2011’-2017’ market, but well-off last year’s levels. Enough liquidity in a normalized market, but in a $7-$9 market expect high volatility and deep ranges/corrections…. US Dollar (Orange): Commodity markets struggle to stay strong for a long period of time when the Dollar is above 100.00.
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
1
Corn and Rate of Change PotentialCorn – 3mo Continuous: Comparing our current Bull market with the previous 4 major bull markets of the past 50 years. Previous price action on charts are often used for support and resistance. I like to look at rate of change during certain periods. Currently the 24 mo ROC is at 140% and compares to the 95-96 and the 11-12 rally’s. The previous all time high on corn was 8.43 in Aug 12’ and will act as resistance. If we look at potential price above 8.43, the ROC from 71-73 can be used to project potential up to the 9.50 area. If we use the 06-08 ROC that projects price up to 11.35. **Disclosure** Do not take this as trading advice. The potential is there for 9.50 to 11.35 Corn, but anything could keep us from getting above today’s High.
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
4
Corn Futures (ZC1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish MomentumType: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 814'4 Pivot: 807'4 Support: 795'4 Preferred case: We see the potential for a bearish dip from our pivot level at 807'4 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support level at 795'4 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci projection and -27.2% Fibonacci expansion. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price might break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level at 814'4 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish ReversalType : Bearish Reversal Resistance: 778'0 Pivot: 772'6 Support : 762'0 Preferred case: We see the potential for a bearish reversal from our pivot at 772'6 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 762'0 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator where price is trading at resistance level. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 778'0 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Fundamentals: No major news
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Corn - Weekly ContinuousPrice stalled out in the bull trap area between 7.66 and 8.00 after placing the 7.82 high. Bull Trap- Mark a new high and clear out any stop orders above previous highs but fail above in the 113%-127% retracement area. Open interest has been trending lower since last year’s breakout into this bull market. Funds are near record long already but with the amount of money in all markets, it should not surprise to see more fund length enter our commodity space. I feel that the end users control this next move. If they feel the pressure to extend their coverage, I expect the Funds to follow their lead and enter the long side of this market. Any extension to open interest should be positive to Corn prices…. Support 6.97 then 6.45. Resistance 7.66, 7.82, with targets above at 8.32 and 8.82
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
Corn Futures (ZC1!), H1 Bullish BounceType : Bullish Bounce Resistance : 756'4 Pivot: 745'2 Support : 738'0 Preferred case: We see the potential for bullish bounce from our Pivot level at 756'4 in line 28.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st resistance level at 756'4 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is supported by stochastic indicator where it is at support level. Alternative scenario: If price continues to dip, it can potentially move towards our 1st support level at 738'0 which is in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Fundamentals: No Major News.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Genesiv
Corn Futures (ZC1!), H4 Bearish ReversalType : Bearish Reversal Resistance : 782'2 Pivot: 765'0 Support : 730'0 Preferred case: We see the potential for bearish dip from our Pivot level at 765'0 in line 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st Support at 730'0 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Alternative scenario: If price continues to go up, it can potentially move towards our 1st Resistance level at 782'2 which is in line with a graphical swing high resistance. Fundamentals: No Major News.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
10 year Corn Projection (potentially) 10yr Corn outlook: 1 thought (of many I have) on the potential course of the corn market for the next 10 years. I feel the job of the market is to find a price high enough to ration future demand. Could be 7.80, maybe 8.50, or even 9.50. The potential is there for any of those numbers to mark a major swing high for Corn. The higher that mark is nearby, the more corn rations future demand. The low found after a major high is made could mark an area for the future multi year market structure. The market should remain very sensitive for another few years. Sensitive to world demand and production misses across the globe. There are many climate cycles coming ahead that are all supportive to potential Ag production shortages. **Not a prediction, something to watch** At some point we return to a tighter, more defined market structure working low prices against the long term uptrend line… 4.50-5.25 ???
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
1
Corn ( ZC1!) , H4 Potential bullish continuationType : Bullish continuation Resistance : 793'6 Pivot: 719'4 Support : 659'0 Preferred Case: On the H4 chart, price is near our pivot of 719'4 in line with horizontal overlap support and 50% Fibonacci retracement . Price can potentially rise to our 1st resistance level at 760'0 in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension . Our bullish bias is supported by how price is moving above the ichimoku cloud . Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may head to our 1st support at 659'0 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Fundamentals: No major news event.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Genesiv
🌾CORN - BitCorn is Back🌽🌮🍿Last year we bought because of inflation. This year things are even more serious, there is a war between Russia and Ukraine. Column: Concerns rise over Black Sea spring crops amid Russia-Ukraine war: www.reuters.com Looks like Fajitas and Tacos🌮, Kellogs frosties 🐯 and other cereal , corn on the cob 🌽, even go ''pop'' in the cinema🍿 might become expensier. On a more serious note, poverty will hit some and food will become a luxury for some. Sad but true. Scary... May logic prevail, the FXPROFESSOR 🌾
CBOT_MINI:XC1!Long
by FX_Professor
4
Corn Market **Please do not take this as a projection or extreme bullish stance. This Market is sensitive to major up and down moves that will eventually leave many surprised by the high and the low it will leave behind. The quarterly chart shows extreme highs being made in the past 50 years. The current Corn market shares some similarities with the 06’-08 and the 71’-73’ Markets. Supply, Demand, and Inflationary driven Markets. Add emotionally driven as well…. • 71’-73’ Had the Russian Grain robbery and the US$ taken off the gold standard. I don’t know about production back then but the World demand and inflationary fears were very strong • 06’-08’ Had new demand in US ethanol paired with a strong growing China economy hungry for US grains. The 07/08 housing crisis brought fears of inflation. I am unsure on production in those years. • 20’-22’ Domestic and world demand is strong. There have been areas of production misses the past couple of years across major exporting nations, and Inflationary fears are elevated. Part of last year’s corn rally ending was due to rationing of corn for feed demand as Corn approached $7.00, Wheat still had a 5 in front of it. This year Wheat has been trading above $8. Major corn rallies of the past were preceded by strong Wheat rallies. With similar ingredients to previous Major Bull rallies, I feel that potential upside on this market is extreme and unmeasurable. Because we never know for sure, I had Identified the 5.75+ area as a place to target old crop sales, with the 7.35 area the potential upside/resistance. But beyond that I feel that the 9.50 area should be considered for potential extreme upside. Both of the previously identified markets rallied more than 200% of their 24 month low before cooling off. I do think it is fair to use rate of change as potential upside when dealing with inflationary type markets. Corn has never been to 9.50 before, but (twice in 50 years) it has seen a rate of change of 200%. For New Crop Corn: I don’t know if there is anything we can do with this other than look more at courage calls, or to be more engaged with puts (with a roll up program). This is a monthly continuous chart that will be driven by old crop contracts. There could be a strong old crop/new crop inverse if this thing was to get excited the first 6 months of this year, but new crop contracts should perform well. It is dangerous to put out charts showing such extreme levels, but I think it is prudent to shock test Margin callscenarios against such extreme levels. **Down side support is 4.75-5.15, extreme Risk is 3.80 to 3.00.
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
1