New Highs in Corn
Corn probes above $6 for the first time since 2013
Farmers will favor beans
Keep an eye on gasoline and ethanol prices
Corn continues to pop going into the planting and growing seasons- It’s all about the weather
Backwardation as the market has high hopes for 2021 output
In late April 2020, the corn price fell to its lowest level since 2008 when the continuous corn futures contract found a bottom at $3.0025 per bushel. The pandemic pushed prices lower across all asset classes. Corn is the primary ingredient in US ethanol production. The ethanol mandate that requires a blend of gasoline and biofuel in the US closely ties corn’s price to crude oil and gasoline. In April 2020, crude oil fell below zero to a low of negative $40.32 per barrel. Gasoline prices declined to 37.60 cents per gallon wholesale in March 2020, the lowest price since 1999. The price carnage in the energy sector and selling in all markets pushed corn to the $3 level where it found a bottom.
Last week, corn moved to its highest price since July 2013 at nearly double the April 2020 low. Nearby May futures probed above the $6 per bushel level.
Corn probes above $6 for the first time since 2013
On April 15, corn futures put in the most recent high when they traded to $6.015 per bushel on the nearby March futures contract.
The chart highlights eight consecutive months of gains in the corn market as of mid-April 2021. A close above the $5.6425 level at the end of April will mark the ninth straight monthly price increase in the coarse grain.
Open interest, the total number of long and short positions in the corn futures arena has been rising with the grain’s price. Increasing open interest as the price of a futures market rises is typically a validation of a bullish trend. Monthly price momentum and relative strength indicators are in overbought conditions, but they continue to rise. Monthly historical volatility at 22.31% signifies the rally is slow and steady.
Corn futures are bullish, with the price at its highest level since July 2013. The next upside target is $7.30 per bushel, that month’s peak, which is a gateway to the 2012 $8.4375 all-time high in the corn futures market.
Keep an eye on gasoline and ethanol prices
The US ethanol mandate ties corn’s price to gasoline. The US is the world’s leading corn producer and exporter. Corn is the input into US ethanol processing. In Brazil, sugar is the input. Like corn, sugar prices have been rallying over the past months as the demand for ethanol rises with gasoline prices.
The chart shows that gasoline futures rose from the lowest price of this century at 37.6 cents per gallon in March 2020 to the highest level since 2018 at $2.17 per gallon in March 2021. Higher gasoline prices have pushed ethanol to a multi-year peak.
The monthly ethanol futures chart illustrates that the biofuel’s cost has risen to its highest level since December 2014 at $2.01 per gallon. Higher ethanol prices support higher corn prices.
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Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading.
Zc1
Corn: A Potential Fade Approaching Corn seems to be in the final stage of a bullish run here. In terms of % gain, it is almost at the psychological 100% increase area from Mar'20 low. Short risk exposure is becoming more risky at these levels. With another push higher, some decent supply inflows are expected.
Long C H1 as it is both bullish in FA & TACorn continues to trade along the lower end of the trend channel. Both daily and weeklies are still on the uptrend but watch carefully as some of the momentum indicators continue to flatten.
On the fundamental side, erratic weather patterns in South America and continuous large demand from the Chinese continue the bullish case for the corn and the grains complex. My initial TP on the trade is around 4.50 for starters, entry is 4.25, and stop loss level is set at 4.20. Thinking of an R-Multiple of 5. Though as soon as the trade goes my way, will lift my stops to breakeven.
GRAIN SPREADS; Kansas Wheat - CBOT W - 2x Corn; Weekly long termCBOT:KE1! CBOT:ZW1! CBOT:ZC1! CBOT:ZS1!
KE (Kansas City) Wheat - CBOT (World) Wheat
These tend to be extremely reliable signals, indicating long term trends / changes, as Wheat itself has a relatively long (~7 year) cycle. (Wheat growing regions spreading from (north) pole to (south) pole.)
UPTREND SUPPORT SLIDING DOWN - CORN - ZC1! - 30MNWe have seen an up trending line hidden but being actually acting like a super strong resistance line stopping the market to go further up. Shall we see it like a regulated price for the Corn ? Not sure. But this line is clearly sliding and in a very regular way giving us a probability to see it sliding further.
The black arrow are showing the sliding effect.
We have marked with a red line the potential next break. if it breaks, there is a strong probability to see the market going down further to the next blue line down, following the logic of a next level of support from past history data.
We have also market in green a potential break up, as the market decides at the end. But, that point can be seen as a probable good entry for a short position direction. A potential pullback down might occur as the candlestick in the red circle shows a brake in the uptrend. it is a signal. Huge volumes have been stopping the market from going up further.
For the moment we stick to the possible short direction scenario.
A short and Long view on the Weekly chart - CORN FuturesMain items we can see on the chart:
a) On the weekly chart, we can define 3 clear structures
b) The first structure is the support the price is currently in
c) The other 2 zones are the Targets we have either for the bullish or bearish movement
d) Our Long view will wait for the breakout of the descending trendline (yellow line) and we will expect for a corrective structure on a lower timeframe after that
e) The bearish scenario needs the support zone to be broken and then a corrective structure after that. The main target is the next support zone
f) Both scenarios have good potential in terms of movement
Separating the Wheat from the...Corn?We like being long $ZW_F vs. short $ZC_F as both a short-term trade and and longer-term play. Corn has experienced a resurgence thanks to the huge rally in $CL_F prices while wheat have found rock-solid support at $490 per bushel and reclaimed an uptrend line going back to last March. Ratio should be 3:2 in favor of corn contracts.
LARGE Players Are Going LONG! CORN Long SetupHello everyone,
today I have a great opportunity from commodity markets for you.
CBOT:ZC1! broke from the long term trading range, but the lower prices were rejected and there are two Pinbars on the weekly chart. Also according to Commitment of traders index the large players are going long which makes it a very interesting setup for buyers.
Do you also watch COT? ;-)
John
FINEIGHT Team
Corn’s Fib Objective for Reached at Seasonal Low?Grains tend to hit their seasonal lows here in early May, as we get into the critical May-June growing season. On the daily chart, corn has traded down from it’s 460’0 highs of last year, using a 50% HWB short at 402’2 to make the run down to it’s Fib objective of 316’6. With price and timing lining up for a bottom here, we are looking for 50% Half Way Back longs and are starting to see the “green shoots” of a rising market here, with a short-term long objectives of 327’6. Further upside will be necessary to challenge the new HWB short, setting up at 351’6, which is likely over the next couple of months. So, look to be long Corn, especially from prices close to the 310’0 level. And look to sell in the 351’6 - 363’5 area on a bounce into the HWB short area.
Corn Futures - Area Chart Analysis - Monthly ViewHello everybody,
Here is my chart analysis for Corn Futures.
Monthly timeframe & long-term vision.
Since its historical top at 806'4 Corn is on a downtrend.
Its bearish potential is really interesting.
Nevertheless, 300'0 price level could be the next support.
Indeed, Corn has been drifted in a range area between 320'0 & 440'0 since July 2014.
If the actual price breaks this level, Corn could reach the 200'0 price level which has been hit several times.
Between August 1998 & October 2005 but before also, I just don't have more space to show you that in this publication.
However, Pay attention for a possible pullback on the 300'0 price level !
I hope you'll like it !
Follow me for Futures Chart Analysis !
Thanks & see you !
CORN FUTURES (ZC1!) DailyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low.
The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates.
One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades:
For best results trade in the direction of the trend.
The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30.
When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered.
When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered.
This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts.
This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
CORN FUTURES (ZC1!) WeeklyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low.
The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates.
One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades:
For best results trade in the direction of the trend.
The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30.
When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered.
When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered.
This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts.
This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
CORN FUTURES (ZC1!) MonthlyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low.
The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates.
One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades:
For best results trade in the direction of the trend.
The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30.
When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered.
When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered.
This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts.
This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.