"CORN going down" by ThinkingAntsOkDaily Chart Explanation:
- Price started its down move from the Major Resistance Zone.
- Price made a retracement towards the Middle Resistance Zone.
- Now, it should be strong enough to go down towards our targets to the Support Zone first and to the Major Support Zone then.
Weekly Vision:
Updates coming soon!
Zc1
Corn: Short opportunity on 1D Death Cross and RSI.Corn has been consolidating recently following the 402 peak on 1D (RSI = 54.610, STOCH = 53.472, MACD = 0.760, ADX = 18.642) after the September Death Cross. A similar candle sequence took place in August 2018, when after a 1D Death Cross (MA50 under MA200) and a market Top, the price made a new Low (Higher Low on 1W).
Since the RSI is on the same zone as then, we are expecting a decline towards 368'2 - 360'2.
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"Corn on a Resistance Zone" by ThinkingAntsOkDaily Chart Explanation:
- On the Weekly Vision, price is in a huge lateralization, we see it has potential to move down towards the Support Zone.
- Now, price is on the Resistance Zone.
- We expect it to bounce from here.
- We are looking for sell setups on lower timeframes.
Weekly Vision:
Updates coming soon!
"Corn is retesting the Resistance Zone" by ThinkingAntsOkDaily Chart Explanation:
- Price started its down move after bouncing on the Major Resistance Zone.
- Now, price is on the Middle Resistance Zone.
- If it bounces from here, it has potential to continue its down move towards the Support Zone and, then, towards the Major Support Zone.
- We are looking for sell setups on lower timeframes.
Weekly Vision:
Updates coming soon!
"Top and Bottom Analysis on Corn" by ThinkingAntsOk4H Chart Explanation:
- Price is on a Micro Ascending Channel.
- Bearish Divergence on MACD.
- If price breaks the Channel, it has potential to move down towards the Middle Support Zone first and, then, towards the Support Zone.
Weekly Vision:
Daily Vision:
Updates coming soon!
Corn Sep 24 SHORTM pattern
Looking at our daily continuous corn contract we will first use our indicators such as RSI, Stoch RSI, and
MACD to determine possible directional position.
Or RSI is heading down the slightest but has been at this high level three major times with no success to
break through and has gone flat. Our Stoch RSI shows slight less buying pressure with the buy RSI above the sell
RSI, therefore still showing slight, not strong but still bullish presence.
Our MACD shows overbought conditions with our buy and sell looking to cross for selling pressure.
(Only 1 real bearish signs with a reasonable half bullish indicator.)
A 10R chart will show a more favorable move to the downside which will break it through the latest low.
an upside move using this technique is unlikely due to previous candle strength after Sep 17 drop.
We are in lower lows and lower highs pattern and are testing the third resistance touch with little strength
to break out.
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ, /ZC, /ZSEARNINGS:
No earnings announcements this coming week in underlyings with highly liquid options with ideal rank/implied metrics (>70% rank/>50% 30-day implied).
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS:
SLV (82/29)
GDX (74/33)
TLT (71/15)
GDXJ (60/37)
GLD (59/15)
XOP (35/37)
Precious metals ... again, with GDXJ offering the best volatility metrics (>50% rank/>35% 30-day implied)
BROAD MARKET:
IWM (23/19)
SPY (13/13)
QQQ (11/18)
EEM (7/16)
EFA (15/11)
FUTURES:
/SI (82/28)
/UB (71/5)
/ZB (71/12)
/ZN (61/6)
/ZS (63/28)
/GC (59/15)
/ZC (52/28)
Pictured here is a corn short strangle in the October/40 days 'til expiry cycle with strikes camped out around the 1 standard deviation on the put side at 14 delta and the call side at the 13 delta strike, resulting in a delta neutral setup supposedly paying 4.00 at the mid price with break evens at 336 and 409. Naturally, that'll have to be priced out during regular market hours. There also may be some benefit in going out to November, where the implied volatility is at 25.3% versus October's 24.1% and where implied volatility contracts from there into winter and spring with February at 20.5% and April at 17.5%.
An alternative trade would be in October beans; the 830/990 short strangle paying 4.75 with the short put erected at the one standard deviation strike on the put side, the call at the equally delta'd strike on the call. For contrast: corn's implied volatility term structure: October -- 23.3%, November 17.8%, December 19.2%, February 16.6%, April 15.8%.
Naturally, either of these setups can be transformed into defined risk, iron condor trades by buying wings.
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES:
Yowsa! VIX finished the week at sub-14 (13.74), so it's basically time to hand sit on what you put on in August volatility and wait for the next >20 pop to short.
"Top and Bottom Analysis on Corn" by ThinkingAntsOk4 Hour Chart Explanation:
- Price started its down move on the Resistance Zone.
- Now, it is on a Bearish Corrective Structure.
- It has potential to move down towards the Middle Support Zone and, then, the Support Zone indicated on the chart.
Check out our last predictions on CORN (they were really precise)!!!
Weekly Analysis:
Daily Analysis:
Updates coming soon!
ZCK2020-ZCU2019 - Commodity Spread Trading on Corn FuturesZCK2020-ZCU2019
Spreads on corn futures almost reaching Take Profit.
Spreads are one of the most profitable forms of trading there are thanks to the statistical advantage on the seasonality of commodities.
If done respecting the rules of operation, you get on average a Winrate of 87% with a Risk Reward of 2/1.
Joe Ross is my greatest master in this field.
Corn bottomed?Corn bounced right off the range I mentioned on my last idea, Aggressive traders might go long here but it's probably best to wait for MACD signal and further strength. Seasonally corn is Not bullish at this time of the year, so it's best to be careful with longs
**If you're interested in joining a group of like-minded traders, send me a PM. This is NOT a subscription service, just bunch of average traders sharing insights in a FREE group
"Corn: going down as expected" by ThinkingAntsOkDaily Chart Explanation:
- Price bounced on the Major Resistance Zone and started the down move.
- It reached our first target for the bear move at the Middle Support Zone (4.00).
- Now, it has potential to move down towards our second target at the Support Zone (3.395).
- We are looking for sell setups on lower timeframes.
Check our our Weekly Vision. Updates coming soon!
Weekly Vision:
Looking for a tradeable low in Corntarget for short corn idea that I posted was hit, now I’m looking for a tradeable low, more downside is likely but it’s probably better to stay flat and let the market figure out from where to bounce and then get on the trend.
If 400 doesn’t hold, a low might form in the 380-391 region
** Just an idea NOT a forecast
"Short Setup on Corn (ZC1!)" by ThinkingAntsOk4 Hour Chart Explanation:
- Price bounced on the Resistance Zone (check it on the Weekly or Daily Vision).
- Price broke the Ascending Trendline.
- Price is, currently, on a Bearish Corrective Structure (ABC Elliot Count).
- If it breaks it at 4,215, the Short Move will be started.
- Our targets for that down move are the two Middle Support Zone and, finally, the Weekly Support Zone.
Check our Weekly and Daily Analysis. They can be really helpful for you!
Weekly Analysis:
Daily Analysis:
"Top and Bottom Analysis on Commodities: Corn" by ThinkingAntsOk4 Hour Chart Explanation:
- Price bounced on the Macro Resistance Zone and broke the Ascending Trendline.
- It is currently retesting the Resistance Zone (Pullback).
- If price starts its down path, we have two potential targets points: the Middle Support Zone at 3,782 and the Major Support Zone at 3,424.
Also, our Weekly and Daily Analysis are short views on the Corn.
Weekly Analysis:
Daily Analysis:
CORN LongCORN has broken out of a bullish descending wedge pattern to the upside, entered a bearish rising wedge, broken down and back-tested the previous resistance level before bouncing back. There are positive divergences on the charts which suggest a much longer up trend in play. These positive divergences can also be seen on the weekly and monthly charts of CORN which also firm up the thesis of a new long term uptrend. When measuring the height of the wedge pattern and adding it to the breakout point, the anticipated price coincides with a former support/resistance level.
Corn Weather Market Losing Steam?
In the ZCZ2019 chart, I see the potential for another leg up however I believe it could retreat down to test the current support line. On 4/30 I bought corn around $3.80 feeling the low had been put in, after a few discomforting days I was correct. Due to delayed plantings and not optimal weather looking forward the market exploded up. I exited this position around the $4.40 range and enjoyed the nice profit, skeptical the market could not bust through the $4.54 price level.
Now that the market has broken through that level of $4.54 I am not adding to a Spec long position, while there is certainly upside potential left, I feel the market will struggle in the coming days and weeks to continue the great run it has displayed over the past weeks. That does not mean I am ready to initiate a short position, I feel the upside potential of 8.5% to the upside is still greater than a potential selloff.
I will be keeping a close eye on the market in the coming days and weeks if we do continue to rise an additional 8.5% and reach $5.00 +/- I will be preparing to enter the market as a bear. I do not forsee a freefall taking place but do see the potential for significant price reductions if we reach these levels. For the time being, I remain patient, sitting on my hands.
**Educational purposes only**
ZC1! - What to expect on the 4hr - CORN FUTURESSo check my last chart to see where I told you what needed to happen to get here. Spoiler alert. I was spot on. Now we have a fresh high and fresh failed to gain. Not a bad place to get short with tight stop just above previous highs. BUT TO TRULY KNOW IF THIS IS THE TOP... you have to lose the high. Look for a close below the last leg that took you up and then get short on the pull back to test that previous local high. This could be the last pullback before the drop, if there are no closes above the top green line. But typically there is a significant pull back after it close below the last leg up and thats usually where I get in on trend reversal signals.
CORN DAILY CHART ANALYSISKey Level: 387’6
I’m working on the idea of triangle wave (B) complete and wave (C) is developing into 5 wave motive structure.
By using Elliot rule of “WAVE 2 never retrace 100% of wave 1”, we can establish an invalidation level that served as our key level of this analysis.
If wave (B) complete, corn has no business to go above 387’8 level and I’m looking forward to short with corn in wave 3.
Let’s see how corn market develop in the next coming days, week and month :D
Please leave a comment if you have any idea and suggestion to improve this corn analysis.
Happy trading