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GOLD → How might consolidation end? Up or down?FX:XAUUSD is in the consolidation stage. The morning session was extremely quiet amid the absence of Japan in trading, as well as after Saturday's news. Traders are waiting for Powell's speech at 16:30 GMT. The market was expecting that Trump's assassination attempt in Pennsylvania could have a strong impact on gold as a hedge asset, but the market did not react much, except for cryptocurrencies. The dollar still looks bearish, if Powell does not change his stance from last week, the dollar index could break support and go down, for gold this would be a favorable scenario. Since the price is in a range, we can consider 2 scenarios at this point: 1) If the bulls keep the price above 2407, they may break the local resistance and test the upper boundary of the range with a breakout target 2) Against the backdrop of the dollar pullback, gold may come down to the liquidity zone before a subsequent move up. Support levels: 2407, 2401, 2392 Resistance levels: 2413, 2417, 2424 Fundamentally and technically the background is favorable, gold is quite capable of testing the ATH or even renewing it, but it is worth paying attention to Powell's speech.... Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with GOLD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
9
GOLD → Favorable fundamental background. Will we go to 2450?FX:XAUUSD updates high to 2424 amid favorable news. Buyers are returning with the belief that the dollar will continue to fall on the back of the imminent interest rate cuts. CPI indicates significant easing of inflationary pressures in June. Annual inflation fell to 3%, the lowest rate in a year. This report provides evidence to the Fed that inflation is easing, but most likely it is not enough for them and they will need 1-2 reports confirming the fact that inflation is under control and a move into deflation is forming. Ahead of PPI and traders are focusing on this report as favorable data could reinforce fresh selling in the US Dollar. This, in turn, could trigger a rise in gold prices. But, it is worth considering the unpredictability of the news in your trading. Resistance levels: 2411, 2416, 2424 Support levels: 2396, 2392, 2385 Technically, a small correction is possible after a false breakdown of resistance, which in general may lead to testing the imbalance zone before the next growth, if the fundamental background after PPI is maintained or intensified.... Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with gold ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
18
USDJPY → Interventions + CPI. The market doesn't believe it...FX:USDJPY is coming under bearish attack. Immediately after the US CPI release, the Japanese Central Bank intervened in the FX market to support the yen. Fundamentally this was to be expected. Japan's central bank is not trying very hard to preserve its national currency. In order to invest minimal effort, policymakers took advantage of the US CPI report. The CPI + Interventions tandem led to a 2.7% decline in the currency pair. But, traders are starting to buy back some of the decline. Ahead of PPI, the news could both amplify the fall and smear all the efforts of the BoJ. Technically, I don't think such actions will lead to anything global. The growth could continue. On W1 the nature of the market does not change, all interventions are gradually bought out and the currency pair will continue to update the highs. Resistance levels: 159.6, 160.2, 160.5 Support levels: 157.7 It is possible to buy out and test the imbalance zone before the subsequent decline. A favorable background may be the PPI report, but after the market calms down, traders may return to JPY sell-offs, which may lead to the continuation of USDJPY growth. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
5
GOLD → 2387 is key resistance, but ahead of CPI...FX:XAUUSD continues to maintain a bullish market structure, gradually pushing up to strong resistance with a breakout target. The US dollar is declining amid dovish US Fed assumptions.... All eyes remain on the US CPI report Powell's caution on weakening labor market conditions suggested that a September rate cut is likely just around the corner, which once again brought down the US dollar along with US Treasury yields. Softer US annual CPI data or a surprise decline in monthly inflation could confirm the September Fed rate cut and increase the chances of another rate cut in December. And vice versa... Technically, buyers are pushing up to 2387. A break of resistance will open the way to 2400-2437. But, there could be a correction before that Resistance levels: 2387 Support levels: 2378, 2370 Favorable news can strengthen the movement, in which case the resistance breakout is not to be missed. But, unexpected data may shake the market, the dollar may continue its strengthening phase and in this case gold will head towards 2350. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with gold ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
29
EURUSD → The morning gap is bought out. The bulls are aggressiveFX:EURUSD opens with a gap down, but buyers are actively buying back the move. The nature of the market is bullish, but at the same time consolidation, as there is strong resistance ahead. The fundamental background is favorable, there is no news today. Last week traders took well the fact of unemployment growth, within the framework of which active buying started. Technically, on H4 a bullish distribution is forming towards 1.085, from which, after the initial testing of the liquidity area, a correction may follow. But in general, I expect the continuation of growth (rebound from 1.0816 or breakdown of 1.085). Resistance levels: 1.0852, 1.091, 1.1 Support levels: 1.0816, 1.078 The nature of the market is changing and the bulls are actively holding key areas. The market is bullish and a breakout of the nearest resistance will favor the continuation of growth. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
1
AUDUSD → Price squeezes in front of resistance. A breakout?FX:AUDUSD is forming a strong consolidation on the chart as the price is squeezing to the resistance at 0.67. On the background of weakening DXY, buyers have chances to break the area. There is news ahead and at the moment traders are preparing to break resistance. Favorable news may contribute to the breakout of the strong limit zone and the formation of a distribution towards 0.684. Technically, the chances are high (strong bullish pattern) Traders are waiting for: ADP, Initial Jobless Claims, SP PMI, ISM, FOMC. Quite a busy news day, against which high volatility is expected. After Powell's words yesterday, the situation is neutral, but the dollar is going into correction. Everyone is waiting for the data on the labor market, on which the further situation will depend. Resistance levels: 0.67 Support levels: 0.665, 0.662, 0.6586 Technically, the situation is bullish, the emphasis is towards the resistance breakout. Further everything will depend on the fundamental background. A favorable background for AUD will increase purchases, but a negative background may cause a correction. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
3
GOLD → An intermediate bottom of 2350 is forming. What's next?FX:XAUUSD is testing 2350, gathering liquidity below this zone. Bulls are actively holding the defense above the key area and the overall picture looks promising.... BUT! Powell's speech continues today ahead of CPI and PPI. Things are heating up, the slightest hint of an unpredictable outcome could shake the market. For now, there are some positive signs after Powell's words: - Keeping rates high for too long could jeopardize growth in the U.S. economy - A rate hike is unlikely to be the next step - The Fed has made significant progress in bringing inflation down to the 2% target, recent monthly numbers show modest further progress - Fed needs more favorable inflation data to cut rates Overall, traders are not getting enough of this, the market is in consolidation and no one is in a hurry to take premature action yet. We are waiting for today's comments of the Fed chief. Technically, gold is showing bullish dynamics after the bulls did not let the price go beyond 2350. The price is consolidating above the key level of 2365 and testing the area of interest and liquidity of 2375-2380. A breakout and consolidation of the price above this area may further strengthen the price, as the promising target, at the moment, is 2387 - 23400. Resistance levels: 2373, 2380 Support levels: 2365, 2355, 2350 A bounce to the downside before further growth is possible, but price consolidation above the key zones could form an interim bottom for the bulls. All emphasis on Powell's comments..... Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with gold ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
8
GOLD → The fight for 2365. Can we get to 2400? FX:XAUUSD is trading within an ascending channel, but traders are actively selling off all of Friday's growth. The key roll is played by the resistance 2365, at the moment bears are holding the market. The dollar stops falling amid expected comments from Powell, as well as CPI and PPI to be released on Thursday and Friday. The fundamental background is neutral at the moment, Against this background gold is getting under correction and testing the liquidity area of 2350. Now all the focus is on 2365, relative to which a false breakout has been formed. IF: sellers will hold 2365 and will not let the price above this level, we should expect a decline to 2350, 2341 and further it is worth watching the situation, because in this case the price can reach 2325. If the buyers continue to be active and can form a consolidation above 2365, it will open a channel, the upper boundary of which will be 2387 and we can go up to it. Resistance levels: 2365, 2387 Support levels: 2358, 2350, 2341 Two scenarios, as the situation is complicated due to the unstable fundamental background and the struggle between the participants in the key zone that divides the plane into bearish and bullish. I would prioritize a small bounce from 2365, resistance retest, breakout and bullish momentum to 2375-2385. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
21
Bitcoin - 42k soon! (Fibonacci channel, roadmap)Why am I bearish on BTC? With all the crypto regulations around the world and, recently, banning stable coins in Europe + high transaction fees - crypto is losing its popularity, and people are starting to hate crypto. Which means no one wants to use it, and where there is no use, there is no money. Maybe crypto is not as good a technology as presented by banks. Crypto has been a huge disappointment for all investors in recent years. Ask yourself a question: Are you happy with your crypto holdings or not? Wasn't it better to put your money into NVIDIA? Nvidia made 10x in only a 2-year period. And this is a big stock, not a penny stock. Bitcoin hit an all-time high in March and failed to continue the price discovery. Bitcoin was not strong enough to continue in the bull market, and instead, we saw a liquidity sweep, and it is currently experiencing a 27% crash from its peak. Bitcoin failed to sustain the black ascending channel (that you can see on the chart). What we want to see is a breakout above an ascending channel, then a retest of it, and then a continuation of the bull run. In Bitcoin's case, we did have a retest of the black channel in April, but recently the price went back to the channel, which is a strong sign of weakness. We have completed the Elliott wave impulse wave (12345). Waves 2 and 4 have both around 20% retracement. Bitcoin is definitely heading towards the 42k level. Why is this level so important? We need to take a look at the chart and draw a Fibonacci parallel channel. Always use significant points to draw it, such as the major swing high or peak of a bull market. In our case, we use the most important points: bull market peak (2021), bear market bottom (2022), and bull market peak (2024). We have a very nice-looking Fibonacci channel, and now we need to look for important levels. I always recommend using 0.618, 0.5, and 0.382. We also have 0.764 and 0.236, but these levels in general have a lower success bounce rate. 0.5 is not a Fibonacci number, but it's the middle of the ascending channel, which is logically a very strong dynamic level. The first major support is at 0.382 (around 42k) because we also have a POC (point of control) of the volume profile. Let me know what you think about my analysis in the comment section, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Xanrox
118
GOLD → Pre-breakdown structure, but NFP is ahead. ↑ or ↓ ?FX:XAUUSD is updating the high within consolidation after rallying. Technically, this is a good sign, but NFP and unemployment are ahead. The news could either reinforce the move or completely derail it.... A nice bullish pattern is forming on D1 against resistance at 2365. The deceleration and consolidation in front of the level indicates bullish interest in further growth. But today it is worth paying attention to the fundamental background. From this point of view, the outlook for gold depends on the upcoming news and the reaction of the Fed. Based on previous data, traders expect Friday's employment report to show only 189K new jobs compared to 270K in the previous month, and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged. But the actual data plays a bigger role. Rising unemployment and slowing economic growth may support the gold, as the dollar may continue its localized decline on this background. But, unpredictable data can increase the volatility and affect the market structure in a very opposite way. Resistance levels: 2364. 2387 Support levels: 2355, 2350, 2341 Technically, on D1-H4 gold shows bullish prerequisites, but the economic component plays a big role, which can both support the current movement and reverse it up to liquidation and decline to 2340-2320. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
21
EURUSD → The bulls are coming back. Trend change. Target 1.1FX:EURUSD is breaking the downtrend pattern on a smooth change of fundamental background. Traders are selling off the dollar, which is favorable for the euro. A local bullish pattern is forming on D1 on the background of the global downtrend. Strong fundamental background is favorable for the strengthening of the currency pair. On H4, the price is correcting after updating the local maximum and consolidates above the level formed by the gap. Bulls are trying to keep the defense above this area. The key focus is on the breakout of the 1.0816 zone. This will open the way to the zones of interest: liquidity and imbalance. Today is a day off in the US, the fundamentals are still in place, trading may be calm. Resistance levels: 1.0816, 1.0852, 1.0916 Support levels: 1.078, 1.073 I expect the trend to continue, as traders are showing interest in the market. Local ATH may become a potential target for MM Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
5
NZDUSD → Traders believe in the best outcome. NFP aheadFX:NZDUSD strengthens after a false breakdown. The change of the fundamental background leads to a change in the character of the market. Traders are looking at a breakout of 0.614 and growth in the future, but ahead of NFP... On D1 the price is not going to leave the sideways range yet, as we are told by the false breakdown and return to the channel with the subsequent formation of the impulse. Technically, on H4 a pre-breakdown consolidation is forming and the price is gradually pushing up to resistance, which may lead to a breakout and further growth. Fundamentally, based on previous data, traders expect Friday's employment report to show only 189K new jobs compared to 270,000 in the previous month, and unemployment to remain flat. But it's worth paying attention to the actual data. As a mild reminder of slowing economic growth could weigh heavily on the Fed. Resistance levels: 0.614 Support levels: 0.61, 0.608 Technically traders believe in the continuation of the growth. A break of resistance may trigger a rally. But unpredictable news may change the market mood and in this case active selling may start. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
3
EURUSD - Secret pattern no one talks about! (big crash coming)In my previous EURUSD post, I analyzed the historical chart (1971 - 2024). You know that EURO is heading for a big crash. If you haven't seen this very important post, please check out the related section down below. You have to see it if you are a real EURUSD trader.  Today, let's take a look at the actual 2023/2024 price action to see what is going on here. We have a secret head and shoulders pattern, that no one knows about. In general, the head and shoulders pattern is a reversal pattern and usually occurs at the top of the trend. These patterns are pretty much never perfect, so it's not always easy to spot them. This one is really hard to see, but I made it easy for you. We have 2 shoulders, and each shoulder is composed of a parallel channel. Neckline / HEAD is in the middle. This is of course an important level and strong support/resistance. Right now, it's a support, but once we break it, it turns into a resistance. Of course, I expect a breakdown on this bearish pattern, so make sure you are prepared for what is coming! Is it good to short EURO now? Yes. Where to take profit? It depends on how long you want to wait. I have market 3 strong levels on the way down. The first is the neckline of the HaS pattern. The second is the POC (Point of Control) of the previous market structure. The third is the previous major swing low. From the Elliott Wave perspective, I see a bearish Elliott Nest, that is composed of waves (1-2-1-2). This is an extremely strong fractal because once wave 3 starts, a steep downtrend begins. Usually, wave 3 is the strongest of all waves. Let me know what you think about my analysis in the comment section, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.
Short
by Xanrox
47
Bitcoin - 54% crash, bull market over!Is the bullish cycle really over? Definitely yes, and in this analysis, I will tell you why! The crypto market is dying in front of our eyes, if you are a hodler of many coins, you can see it very clearly on your account balance. Bitcoin failed to sustain the key level of 62k (0.618 FIB), which is an extremely strong sign of weakness. If you take a look at my Elliott Wave count, you see that the major impulse wave (12345) is complete. This is an impulse wave from the start of the bull market (15476) to the end of the bull market (73777). Take a look at wave (2) and wave (4), they both have a 21.35% pullback, so this Elliott Wave count perfectly matches. The next reason is the rectangular range at the top of the uptrend. The range is clearly breaking down, which is another sign of weakness. What's more, we have an upward-sloping trendline that is breaking down as well. Currently, there is nothing bullish on this chart. Statistically, what is a classic correction for Bitcoin during major bear markets? 90%, 84%, or 77%. On the chart, I highlighted the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement for a 54% correction. But will this Fibonacci level really hold? Maybe temporary, but at the end, the price will go below it sooner or later. What we can also consider is the 20 weekly moving average. Bitcoin is currently below it, and we didn't even see any reaction whatsoever.  What to do now? Should you sell your Bitcoin? My arguments are really strong, and I don't even want to know what is going to happen with altcoins. Will altcoins become dust? I am bearish. Let me know what you think about my analysis in the comment section, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.
Short
by Xanrox
291
GOLD → From rally to consolidation. Rest before NFP...FX:XAUUSD strengthens on the back of Powell's comments. Light positive notes lead to DXY sell-off and a small rally of XAU to 2364. Today is a day off in the US and tomorrow is NFP..... It's a day off in the US and there is no liquidity. There may be high volatility during trading, but the movements may be weak. Locally, the price is testing resistance and liquidity area. Within a strong distribution there are not many chances to break through the mentioned area. Most likely the formation of a correction, and local bearish patterns appear on the chart, which may lead to a correction in order to gather energy before tomorrow's NFP. Resistance levels: 2364, 2375 Support levels: 2353, 2341 Technically, a false breakout after distribution is forming. There is no potential to go up now. High probability of correction or consolidation. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
5
GOLD → A change in mood amidst the comments and newsGOLD is testing the previously broken channel boundary. The market maker is driving the price into the liquidity area before the strong news. Powell corrected the direction a bit within yesterday's speech The chance of a September interest rate cut rises after Fed Chair Powell acknowledged progress on disinflation. Jeremy reverses course slightly to dovish. Markets are awaiting the release of the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting (due later today) to get more information on the Fed's next steps. The regulator needs more data before it can start cutting rates. Data from the US labor sector is also in focus: All eyes now turn to ADP's US employment change report after JOLTS showed a rise in job openings on Tuesday. The next important event for the gold price remains the minutes of the June 11-12 Federal Reserve meeting, which could shed light on the central bank's outlook on rates and inflation, having a significant impact on the value of the U.S. dollar and the gold price. Resistance levels: 2346, 2352, 2363, 2380 Support levels: 2341, 2328, 2319 Technically, we have buyers appearing on the local change of fundamental background. The bulls are winning within the consolidation. There is a possibility of strengthening, but we should pay attention to the news.... Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
10
GOLD → 2319 keeps the market from falling, but for how long?FX:XAUUSD GOLD is still consolidating within the local range of 2340 - 2320, which is formed after breaking a strong trend line support. The dollar index is still heading northward Gold is still unable to break downside resistance, as well as forming price consolidation below previously broken support. The key risk zone on which the bulls put so much is 2319-2320. A breakdown and consolidation of the price below this line may trigger a rally to 2290-2275. All eyes are on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech today at 13:30 GMT The recent rise in gold prices can be attributed to lower US Treasury yields as traders resort to profit taking ahead of important US events. ISM, FOMC, NFP are ahead, but the fundamental background for gold is still weak and buyers do not believe in upward movement yet. Resistance levels: 2332, 2341 Support levels: 2319, 2306, 2297 Technically, a bearish pattern is developing on the senior timeframe, unless Powell says something unpredictable today, the general background will remain the same, which will be favorable for further price decline to these areas. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
21
XRP → Rally to 0.730 ↑ The fundamental denouement is comingBINANCE:XRPUSDT is approaching a possible decoupling, both technically and fundamentally. Positive signs of life could lead to a rally, first stop could be around 0.73. On W1, the coin is trying to live, but there is a huge fundamental reason that keeps the price from going beyond resistance and flat: The SEC v. Ripple litigation. The Ripple vs. SEC case is a pivotal moment for cryptocurrency regulation, as a final victory would be a strong green sign for the entire cryptocurrency community amidst the SEC getting a number of restrictions on its activities lately due to overstepping its authority. Ripple's CEO believes that the final verdict could come at the end of the summer. Everyone is counting on a positive outcome for XRP: The court found that Ripple violated federal securities laws by making institutional sales of XRP, but dismissed other charges brought by the SEC. Ripple Labs opposed the SEC's proposal to fine the company nearly $2 billion. Ripple Labs said the court should impose a civil penalty of no more than $10 million Technically: Price continues to test the wedge resistance with the aim of breaking it, volatility decreases and consolidation continues. Below 0.4637 buyers are not letting the price in yet, which may lead to another retest of the resistance, which will only increase the chances of a breakout. Price consolidation above 0.4962 will be the root cause of market character change and possible rally to 0.6265 - 0.73. Support levels: 0.4637 Resistance levels: 0.4962, 0.5720 I expect that the buyers will still be able to break through the resistance of the bearish figure in the near future and ride the rally to the mentioned targets. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
57
NZDUSD → Traders prepare for bearish rally to 0.60OANDA:NZDUSD is consolidating after breaking the uptrend support. There are no signs on the chart for possible growth, only if the fundamental environment does not change drastically... Technically, a bearish situation is forming on the senior timeframe within the 0.6219 - 0.6084 range. Traders do not believe that the dollar will start to fall and are forming sell-offs of the New Zealand dollar. A break of 0.6083 could lead to a strong sell-off that could spill the market to 0.60 - 0.587. But as the US GDP will be released tomorrow, the market may continue to move flat until some important measures are taken by the major traders. Resistance levels: 0.6140, 0.6215 Support levels: 0.6083, 0.600 I expect a retest of the support against which a small rebound may follow. But, if the situation both technically and fundamentally will not change in the near future, we should expect the formation of a bearish trend. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
7
GBPUSD → The rallies in GBP continue. Falling to 1.26?FX:GBPUSD on Friday updates the local low and confirms the bearish nature of the market. Since the opening session traders have been trying to buy back some of the decline and are heading towards the liquidity zone, from which bears may intensify selling Traders increased selling in GBP to a 16-month high amid expectations that the Central Bank of England will start cutting interest rates sooner than the US Fed. Investors are expecting the GDP of both countries (UK and US) on Wednesday and Thursday. This will help to form a medium-term strategy. Technically, price is heading towards the 1.270 zone of interest (psychological area), which previously played the underlying consolidation support. A retest and capture of the liquids could change the imbalance in the market, which could lead to an intensified sell-off from the said area Resistance levels: 1.27, 1.275 Support levels: 1.26, 1.257 The dollar index looks stronger than the pound sterling, which continues to weaken due to fundamental reasons. The Feds are not yet ready to take premature action, which generally determines a negative fundamental background for the currency pair. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
13
GOLD → Countertrend correction or consolidation before a fall ↓FX:XAUUSD has been updating the local minimum since the opening of the session and confirms the bearish nature of the market. The price is heading towards the area of interest and liquidity before a possible decline Today the focus is on the news: S&P PMI, ISM. Traders are expecting relatively warm data, but, at the moment, everything revolves around the perception of inflation news regarding the inflation itself in the Fed's further view on monetary policy. High volatility is possible. Technically, on D1 gold is trading in bearish territory and at the moment, after updating the local low, the price is heading towards the liquidity zone, from which the sell-offs may increase. There is a possibility that before further decline the price may go deeper, for example, to test the imbalance area, as well as the previously broken channel boundary (liquidity capture). Resistance levels: 2332, 2341, 2346 Support levels: 2325, 2315, 2306 It is possible that the situation may change, as traders are overreacting to inflation-related news, but at the moment, on the high timeframe is formed exclusively bearish setup on the negative fundamental background. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
23
UNFI → Resistance Retest. Ready for a breakthroughBINANCE:UNFIUSDT is showing positive dynamics amid the red cryptocurrency market. The coin is approaching strong resistance and we have the potential to catch a breakout with subsequent growth. On the weekly timeframe, the coin is still in consolidation (range 16.0 - 2.5). But, against the background of the general neutral trend we have a downward resistance, which is once again being retested. A pre-breakout consolidation is formed against the wedge resistance, due to which an attempt to break the line and further strengthening can be formed. An initial test of resistance may lead to a small bounce, but a quick retest will increase the chances of a breakout. Support levels: 3.281 Resistance levels: 5.716 I expect the formation of a local consolidation with a gradual push to the resistance of the wedge and further breakout. Regards R. Linda!
ULong
by RLinda
13