Bitcoin - pump to 43777, then crash to 34000Bitcoin is currently going up in the short term, but do not fall for this uptrend. It's clear that the downtrend will continue, and we will see a huge dump to 34,000, probably in March. As per my Elliott Wave count, we have finished a huge impulse wave, and now we need to make an ABC correction so we can go higher to 100,000 in 2025. Wave A is complete; now we are in wave B, the corrective move. Why is 34k strong support? We have a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement on this level and also a pretty huge gap. Let me know what you think about my analysis, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.
How Much Bitcoin Is in Circulation?
Bitcoin’s total supply is limited by its software and will never exceed 21,000,000 coins. New coins are created during the process known as “mining”: as transactions are relayed across the network, they get picked up by miners and packaged into blocks, which are in turn protected by complex cryptographic calculations.
As compensation for spending their computational resources, the miners receive rewards for every block that they successfully add to the blockchain. At the moment of Bitcoin’s launch, the reward was 50 bitcoins per block: this number gets halved with every 210,000 new blocks mined — which takes the network roughly four years. As of 2020, the block reward has been halved three times and comprises 6.25 bitcoins.
Bitcoin has not been premined, meaning that no coins have been mined and/or distributed between the founders before it became available to the public. However, during the first few years of BTC’s existence, the competition between miners was relatively low, allowing the earliest network participants to accumulate significant amounts of coins via regular mining: Satoshi Nakamoto alone is believed to own over a million Bitcoin.
Mining Bitcoins can be very profitable for miners, depending on the current hash rate and the price of Bitcoin. While the process of mining Bitcoins is complex, we discuss how long it takes to mine one Bitcoin on CoinMarketCap Alexandria — as we wrote above, mining Bitcoin is best understood as how long it takes to mine one block, as opposed to one Bitcoin. As of mid-September 2021, the Bitcoin mining reward is capped to 6.25 BTC after the 2020 halving, which is roughly $299,200 in Bitcoin price today.
Zigzag
GOLD → Pressure on XAU price. Consolidation below MA-50FOREXCOM:XAUUSD continues to forge a bearish correction amid a localized decline in interest due to a strengthening dollar index.
Pic: Bearish pressure on the 2025 level
On D1 we can observe the sawing of 2025 level on the background of strong struggle, buyers have formed quite a huge pool of liquidity below 2025-2020. But on the background of market pressure the price still enters the range 2025 - 1984. And we can see it on the background of confirmation in the form of price consolidation below the resistance.
There is a lot of strong news in the coming week, starting from the FOMC, FEC speech, which will obviously discuss the further situation with inflation and interest rate, and NonFarm Payrolls on Friday. This period is expected to be quite volatile, but only in its second half.
Pic: The priority trend on H1 is bearish. Downward price channel
Technically, on the local timeframe we see the formation of a bearish price channel, earlier the price overcame the 2035-2020 consolidation support, at the moment the market is in the correction phase and retesting the previously broken area.
On D1 the gold is consolidating below the daily MA-50 and essentially opens us a new path for a possible decline, as now the market and whales may be interested in the 2000-1984 area, before a possible further rise. From the opening the market may form another retest of the 2020-2025 resistance area before continuing the local trend
TVC:DXY COMEX:GC1! TVC:GOLD COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Downtrend and fundamental background FOREXCOM:XAUUSD continues to forge a downward price channel as the dollar index strengthens on a positive fundamental backdrop. In general, this is a negative scenario for gold, but the bulls continue to keep the price from a strong fall as much as possible.
Pic: Consolidation of price below 2025 under pressure from downward resistance
Today Core PCE PI is published, a slight change for the worse is expected (by analysts and traders), but I don't think it will make a global difference against the backdrop of GDP and yesterday's news. BUT, only if the actual data is not released with a big difference to the expected data.
Technically, gold is testing the strong 2020-2050 zones on the back of the downtrend within H1-H4. Earlier we saw the price moving out of the range, at the moment the price is testing this area. Before a possible further decline, the price of gold may test the trend resistance, which in the mid-term may continue on the background of a rising DXY.
Resistance levels: 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035
Support levels: 2010, 204, 2000
Since gold is trading with a negative fundamental background (at the moment there are no fundamental or technical preconditions for growth or change of trend) and within a downtrend, at the moment the market has chances to test local lows up to 2004 (1985)
TVC:DXY TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
Regards R. Linda!
IOTXUSDT → The pair may rise to 0.065. Waiting for confirmation BINANCE:IOTXUSDT is showing bullish momentum amid a correcting cryptocurrency market along with the flagship. The price is trying to break trend resistance. What can come out of it?
On the high timeframe, the price forms a false breakout and a small correction relative to 0.04400. A retest is formed and the price returns to the resistance. On the background of pre-breakdown consolidation and another retest, the market has chances to break this line. Consolidation of the price above 0.04400 will show a bullish potential for purchases.
On H4 we see a local downtrend and the price going beyond the resistance, which is a good signal for the medium term. The next hurdle is to overcome 0.04400.
On H4, the price is trading above MA-50 and a retest of MA-200 is formed.
Support levels: MA50, 0.04110, 0.03900
Resistance levels: 0.0440, 0.04888
There is a signal for a possible growth of the cryptocurrency pair, but to confirm this signal the market needs to overcome 0.0440 and consolidate the price above this line.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → How long will the distribution phase in the channel last?OANDA:XAUUSD is entering the distribution phase after the consolidation phase. The market is trying to test the local lows, but will the price go even lower, because there is news ahead.
The 4H clearly shows an uptrend within which a correction is forming. Until the price overcomes the area of 2015 - 1980, we should not talk about a global change in the trend. The chart shows that the bulls will continue to hold the area of 2010-2020 on the background of numerous retests, but the sellers are gaining momentum and continue to push the price to the level. At the moment in the distribution phase the price is heading towards 2009 - 2004. And there is a high probability of testing these levels, but we are interested in the news (fundamental) background. Since gold is trading inside the descending price channel, and the price has not yet tested the trend support area, it is difficult for us to talk about the possibility of its breakout, as we do not know the reaction and local preconditions. There is a higher probability of a bounce from the levels.
Support levels: 2009 (2010), 2004, 2000
Resistance levels: 2018, 2020, 2035
Gold's decline is difficult and slow as strong bulls try to contain the support area. A break of support will generate strong momentum and huge volume, but will it happen on the back of the news?
TVC:DXY TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
Regards R. Linda!
USDCAD → Trend change, bullish mood, but...FX:USDCAD is forming a trend change. The completed correction, recovery and formation of a pre-breakout set-up hint at the continuation of growth. But, how will the price behave during the news?
A global trend is forming on D1, which indicates neutrality in the market. The price is moving mainly from the borders of the global range. A reversal pattern is forming against the support and the market is heading towards the resistance area. Bulls are interested in the blue area.
On H4, the level of 1.3528 is formed, a pre-breakdown consolidation is formed relative to the level. Earlier the price overcame the key boundary at 1.3487, which confirms the change of the pattern and the breakdown of the structure. The consolidation of the price at 1.3528 will favorably influence the continuation of growth to 1.3629.
Support levels: 1.3487, 1.3422, 1.3350
Resistance levels: 1.3528, 1.3629
An ascending pattern of price movement is formed locally. The chart indicates a bullish mood and local zones that are worth paying attention to for trading
TVC:DXY
Regards R. Linda!
EURUSD → Will the change in trend be confirmed?FX:EURUSD is forming an attempt to change the uptrend amid the strengthening of the TVC:DXY . The price is testing the resistance at 1.0888 in the correction phase.
Pic: Dollar index consolidation between MA-200 and MA-50
If we pay attention to the dollar index, we can see that it has been standing still during the week. Most likely, tomorrow's news: Initial Jobless Claims, GDP, CDGO may push the index to start moving. But, in any case, the medium and long term potential is determined by the Fed's decision on the interest rate, which at the moment they do not dare to lower.
The currency pair is breaking the trend support, testing the low and forming a correction. For the market, from a technical point of view, the target of 1.0756 has appeared. The currency pair is likely to test the resistance at 1.0888 - 1.095 before further falling to the range support.
Resistance levels: 1.0888, 1.0950
Support levels: 1.083, 1.0756
Correction after a trend change is a standard formation. The price can test the area in the format of a false breakout and after maintaining the liquidity to direct the price to a new target.
Regards R. Linda!
EURJPY → Consolidation. What's next? Growth or decline?FX:EURJPY tests resistance and forms a false breakout, but now the price is stuck inside the range and forms consolidation on which the further scenario depends.
On D1 the price stops at one of the intermediate resistance levels - 161.4. Euro as well as Japanese Yen are getting weaker against the general background, the strong fall of Japanese Yen will squeeze the currency pair and apparently the growth of the pair after the correction may continue.
On H4 the price tests resistance and forms a false breakdown, after which it forms a range between resistance 161.4 and the downtrend line (blue dotted line). It can be assumed that consolidation will continue until the price goes beyond it. Thus:
1) against the backdrop of the rising trend, we have a chance to see a retest of resistance from the previously broken trendline, which could lead to a breakout of 161.4 and further strengthening of the pair.
2) As the price has returned to the channel boundaries, the correction may extend all the way to the uptrend support, but after the breakout of the zone: 160.0
Support levels: 160.0
Resistance levels: 161.4
The further scenario at the moment depends more on who wins the market as part of the fight within the consolidation. The bulls should consolidate above 161.4 to continue rising and the bears below 160.0 to continue the correction.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Retest of resistance inside the range at the downtrend FOREXCOM:XAUUSD continues to consolidate in the range of 2035-2020. It is likely that tomorrow's news may revitalize the market.
Today the market continues to stand still, this can be seen in both the dollar and gold. Consolidation continues as the market is still uncertain with the future outlook, this could continue until tomorrow as tomorrow's news is Initial Jobless Claims, GDP , and the strength of these factors could determine the medium term outlook.
Technically, GOLD is still in consolidation, but within a downtrend. For now, we continue to emphasize the in-range trading strategy (buy and sell from consolidation boundaries or strong levels). Let me remind you that the global trend is neutral and this is an ideal nuance for intra-range trading. And the local downtrend indicates the approximate market mood.
Resistance levels: 2035, 2038, 2039.4
Support levels: 2025, 2020, 2018
A false break of support defines a local target in the form of resistance. A test of range resistance can form a sell signal. As long as the price does not break the trend or the range boundary, trading within this framework will continue
TVC:DXY COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:GC1! TVC:GOLD
Regards R. Linda!
Ethereum - best plan for the next 30 daysEthereum is going down, but soon it will approach strong support. There is something missing on the chart, and in my opinion, it's this right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern. It's pretty likely that Ethereum is going to go sideways for the next 30 days, but what you can do is buy low in the range and sell high in the range. After we complete the head and shoulder pattern, the price will decide which way it's going to go. Let me know what you think about my analysis, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.
What Is Ethereum (ETH)?
Ethereum is a decentralized open-source blockchain system that features its own cryptocurrency, Ether. ETH works as a platform for numerous other cryptocurrencies, as well as for the execution of decentralized smart contracts.
Bitcoin will continue to crash to 33 500, then pump to 100 000Bitcoin is crashing, that's clear, but will this downtrend continue? It is very likely that it will. Why? We can see that the price already touched the top of the parallel ascending channel on the weekly chart and got rejected from it. What's more, we complete the impulse wave, and we are already in the corrective ABC pattern, which should be a zig-zag style. There is still an unfilled fair value gap between 30k and 34k.
How deep can Bitcoin dive? It is always good to take the Fibonacci retracement tool and look for the 0.382 and 0.618 levels. We need to take into consideration a support trend line of the ascending channel, which is a dynamic support that changes over time, but it's near the 0.618 FIB. Also near the 0.618 FIB, we have the end of the specified FVGAP.
January is usually not the best month for the price of Bitcoin. Usually the big pumps start in April; we have more than 2 months of possible downtrend. Currently, I am very bearish on Bitcoin and expect lower prices.
GOLD → Global trend is neutral, local trend is downward FOREXCOM:XAUUSD continues to stand still, as does the dollar. The market is uncertain due to many different nuances, mainly fundamental and political factors.
On D1 we can see that gold does not have any definite trend at the moment, on H1 there is a downward range, but it plays a mediocre role. Since for now gold is in the range of 2052 (2035) - on top and 2018(2009) - on the bottom , in our case it is better to look for strong support or resistance levels to trade the strategy inside the range. There are no prerequisites for a breakout of the boundaries at the moment, so with a high degree of probability the market will continue to forge price movement within these boundaries.
In the medium term, the further direction will be determined only by the breakthrough of one of the range boundaries, because now it is impossible to say clearly, as a symmetrical triangle is forming globally. Yes, there are prerequisites for both further growth and decline, but we need to wait for actual indications.
Resistance levels: 2035, 2050
Support levels: 2025, 2020, 2018
The moving averages indicate sideways movement, which is what we see. An intra-range trading strategy (from strong levels or range boundaries) is recommended. The global trend is neutral and the local trend is downward.
TVC:DXY COMEX:GC1! CAPITALCOM:GOLD COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
Regards R. Linda!
NZDUSD → Another retest of support could yield a breakout OANDA:NZDUSD is testing strong support at 0.6086, but the market is not forming a logical bounce or reversal. The price continues to test the support, which reminds us of the "Flag" pattern, the essence of which is the continuation of the movement.
On the daily timeframe I marked the key level 0.61038. A false breakout is formed and there is no logical reaction relative to the level (no growth after a false breakout). Buying power is weakening on the back of the rising dollar. Strong bears are forming a pre-breakdown consolidation relative to the 0.6100 level. The dollar index is strengthening as regulators are further delaying a possible rate cut, which could technically strengthen the index, and that would negatively impact the forex .
The moving averages, reversal pattern, retest and pre-breakout consolidation of 0.6100 - 0.6086 suggests a possible breakout of support and a decline in price towards 0.61000.
Resistance levels: 0.6134, 0.6208
Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6084
I expect that on the background of pre-breakdown consolidation another support retest will be formed, which may break this line and the market will start to form a bearish impulse.
Regards R. Linda!
I ideas for XAUUSD 1H gold On H1 there is a downward rang , but it is better to look for strong support level at 2024.6 and resistance level. because now it is impossible to say clearly as. a symmetrical triangle is forming globally.
Resistance levels: 2035-2048-2050
Support levels:2025-2020-2018
My goal is 2025
GOLD → Retests of global support. Where can it lead to?OANDA:XAUUSD opens lower on Monday and is testing 2025 for a breakout. Technically, gold is weaker than the dollar as regulators continue to support the index. Fundamentally, the gold market is only watching the dollar's behavior.
The dollar index is consolidating after a micro rally, but both technically and fundamentally the index may strengthen. The market sentiment is changing: traders are now betting that the Fed will not start cutting rates until May, while earlier it was March.
Gold is in a key consolidation range: 2052 - 2018 (the boundaries are marked on the D1 chart). Anything can happen in relation to the boundaries (false breakout, rebound), as the market is trying to gather the necessary amount of liquidity by any means. But, if you look closely, you can see that the price is forming a retest of the ascending support line. The chances of the support being broken continue to rise.
The trigger zone is below 2018. A break of this support and the formation of consolidation below this level could finally turn the market around and direct the accumulated potential towards a bearish distribution.
But! Since gold is currently in a range, we have a resistance level, a break of which could give the market an opportunity for growth: this is the 2025-2030 area.
Resistance levels: 2025, 2030, 2035, 2050
Support levels: 2018.5, 2016, 2004
Technically, a bearish trend is forming, on d1 price continues to test support for a breakout on the back of a strengthening dollar. I think such preconditions may hint at a possible fall
TVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Counter-trend correction and a target of 2050FOREXCOM:XAUUSD looks quite strong and on the background of growing dollar index does not give up its positions much. Consolidation in the range of 2069.8 - 2029.6 continues.
The dollar index feels overheated but still supported by the US FED & FOMC. Regulators are carefully trying to control the situation and stop any possibility of early interest rate cuts. As we can see, the dollar price is actively reacting to such comments. The index is squeezed between MA200 and MA50 and, in all likelihood, from the support may continue to rise in January-February to the trend resistance, which will have a corresponding effect on the forex market and gold.
Gold is trading within the descending price channel and on the background of unstable geopolitical situation, the price is trading calmly inside the range. The logical price reaction to a false break of trend support is a technical reversal is formed and we see a counter-trend correction to resistance. On D1 gold is forming a strong resistance zone formed by several highs ( 2150, 2085, 2070, 2063 ), on the global timeframe, technically and fundamentally the asset looks promising. The current geopolitical situation is affecting the gold price to the upside, but the market is correlated with the dollar index and as long as the latter is strengthening, gold will still react to it.
Gold may continue to rise at the beginning of the week for several reasons:
- the attacks on Yemen and the response to US vessels continued over the weekend
- dollar index closed Friday's session in the correction phase
- On the hourly timeframe, gold ended Friday's session with the end of the correction in the 2025 area. The price has consolidated above the psychologically and technically important level, respectively, it will favorably affect the price growth.
TVC:DXY COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
Regards R. Linda!
BITCOIN → Why might the price drop to 34K before halving?BINANCE:BTCUSD has been rising for 124 days without any meaningful correction since September. Within a strongly bullish distribution, the price tested the strongest liquidity zone of 48K and made a false breakout, which is a strong sign for the start of a correction.
Technically, BTC is in a stalemate situation, between two channels, more precisely in the range between 43K and 40K. The consolidation may last an indefinite amount of time, as fundamentally bitcoin is quite strong, and all the selling that is taking place is related to ETFs. The next halving is expected on April 7, 2024 . Statistically, the market goes into a significant correction phase before this phenomenon and there is a logic in this - to form more favorable positions before the strong rally that everyone is waiting for.
At the moment, technically, the price is restrained by the resistance 43118 and the price has chances to rise, but for that the market will have to overcome this resistance and hold the level.
From below we have the support at 40181, which is a risk and panic zone. When the price approaches this area, many buyers and sellers have adrenaline levels, as some are eager to open trades and others are afraid of reaching the stop-loss.
Within the current situation, we have two scenarios:
1) Shortsqueeze in the format of a false breakout relative to 0.382 fibo, rise, breakout of 43118, consolidation above the level and subsequent rise to 50K, but at the moment, for the reasons I stated above, this scenario doesn't have much of a chance
2) Breakout of 0.382 fibo, the market gets rid of unnecessary passengers (knock out stoplosses), then - the key fibo area in the medium term - 0.618 fibo. Test of the area may occur in February - March and become a strong support before further growth after halving.
Support levels: 40181
Resistance levels: 43118
Fundamentally the flagman is doing quite well, but technically there are reasons why the market should lower the price before the growth
Regards R. Linda!
ETH vs BTC Technical analysisIs it better to hold Ethereum or Bitcoin? If you are interested in such question, you probably want to see the ETHBTC chart. My analysis is on the weekly chart. What we can see is that the ETHBTC formed a WXY Elliott Wave corrective pattern with a 1:1 FIB extension. If this pattern confirms, ETHBTC could reach a new high and pump massively. But the price is still below the main trendline and below the main horizontal line. I recommend waiting for these 2 lines to break to confirm the bullish bias. Otherwise on the weekly chart price makes lower lows and lower highs, which is a sign of a downtrend. Also, what we need to consider is this local expanding triangular formation. Let me know what you think about my analysis, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.
GOLD → Trading within the descending channel GOLD confirms the lower boundary of the channel, forms a false breakdown of 2010 and reverses to form a counter-trend correction.
Gold manages to grow on the background of the growing dollar index. Today there is no news that can somehow change the direction. Technically, gold, within the descending range, is heading towards the resistance area of 2042-2048.
On the background of the correction, the price is breaking through MA-50 and the strong level of 2025. Ahead is MA-200 and no less important resistance zone 2035 from which a correction may follow with the aim of retesting 2025.
Thus, within the range we should focus our attention on the area: 2035, MA-200. Breakout of this zone and price consolidation above it will form a potential for further growth to the previously mentioned target: liquidity and resistance zone 2042-2048.
But if the bears sell the price, forcing a breakout of 2025 and consolidation below the level, then in this case, against the background of a rising dollar, gold may head towards the support area of 2004.
Support levels: 2025, 2029
Resistance levels: MA-200, 2035
As part of the intra-range trading strategy, the price may reach the trend resistance and test 2048. But, still we have a strong dollar and strong sellers in the market. If the price goes back to 2025, we should be ready for further selling
COMEX:GC1! TVC:DXY COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
Regards R. Linda!
AUDUSD → Change of mood and retest of a strong level FX:AUDUSD broke the uptrend earlier and is testing the strong historical level of 0.65800. Against the backdrop of a rising TVC:DXY , the Aussie could lose ground and head towards downside targets.
The dollar is strengthening and may show growth for the second week in a row thanks to the signs of stability of the American economy and cautious comments of central bankers' representatives on rate cuts, the index is seeing a clear recovery phase, which negatively affects the currency pair.
Technically, AUDUSD breaks the level of 0.65800 and tests it as resistance. There are 2 scenarios that can develop in relation to the level: the first one includes the continuation of the correction if the price breaks 0.65800 and consolidates above it. The target will be the resistance at 0.6666. And the second scenario is the bears' task to hold this level against the background of changing market sentiment. From 0.65800 a decline to 0.6523 is possible with the subsequent breakout and fall to 0.6352. Moving averages show a downward signal.
Resistance levels: 0.65800
Support levels: 0.6523
The trend is changing, bears are more serious, which may affect the pair's pricing. With greater probability I am waiting for the realization of the second scenario.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Price returns to the descending range OANDA:XAUUSD is declining and testing local lows. The market has stopped paying attention to the conflict in the red sea, which is surprising, and focuses its attention on the comments of the Fed representatives, who are quite a lot of speakers and will speak this week.
Of the news today, Core Retail Sales at 31:30 gmt is worth waiting for. Analysts expect unchanged data, but Bowman (FOMC) will speak at 14:00 and Williams (FOMC) will speak at 20:00, most likely to comment on the situation around inflation and further interest rate situation. Overall, the regulator is not ready to give up yet and may continue to keep the dollar strong.
As for gold, the price is still in a neutral consolidation phase. A breakout of one of the boundaries may determine the outlook and it could be a support breakout. In general, gold is returning to the descending range and testing support levels for the possibility of further decline. Most likely, bears will try to hold their zone, in this case gold may test 2013 within the bearish trend in the nearest future. And in the medium term, target 1994, where there is a huge pool of liquidity.
Resistance levels: 2024, 2030
Support levels: 2017, 2013, 2010
As the time horizons are determined both technically and fundamentally, gold may test local lows on the back of a rising dollar
COMEX:GC1! TVC:DXY
Regards R. Linda!
EURUSD → Fundamentally, the dollar is strongerFX:EURUSD is declining and forming an attempt to break trend support. Fundamentally, the TVC:DXY is strengthening on the background of the Fed's position, which negatively affects the base currency - EUR.
On the high timeframe we see that the dollar continues to strengthen after a long consolidation. The Fed is not going to give up and is trying to insure itself before a possible interest rate cut, which may come in spring-summer 2024. This scenario may strengthen the dollar to local highs, which will have a negative impact on the currency pair.
EURUSD broke 1.088 testing the trend support, technically, the breakout has already occurred, the price may take a small correction and retest the support, after which it may head towards the lower boundary of the range - 1.0756. Consolidation of the price below the trend support will confirm the bearish position, which will be a favorable scenario for sellers.
Support levels: 1.078, 1.0756
Resistance levels: 1.0888, 1.10
Fundamentally, the dollar is stronger than the euro, which will obviously have a negative impact on the currency pair. We expect confirmation of the scenario (consolidation below the support) for further opening of sales.
Regards R. Linda!