GOLD → The shakeup after the rate cuts... What's next?FX:XAUUSD updates high to 2600 and then experiences a shakeout. Traders held the 2550 area and are currently trying to recover losses by testing the upper end of the range....
The Fed announced a 0.5% rate cut, bringing the interest rate to a range of 4.75%-5.0%. Why 0.5 and not 0.25? The Fed chief said that 0.25 poses threats to the economy that can no longer be allowed to...
The gold price failed to capitalize on the sharp Fed rate cut, updating the ATH to 2600 the price headed down to the 2560 - 2550 liquidity zones. Traders are waiting for data on jobless claims and existing home sales to assess the state of the economy as a whole, the news may set the course for a correction or strengthen the general background, which will affect further growth
Technically, the price approached the resistance rather quickly, which increases the chances of a bounce or a false breakout. The focus is on 2588- 2585. If the bears hold this area, the price may decline to the area of interest before rising.
Resistance levels: 2585, 2588, 2600
Support levels: 2566, 2559, 2550
The overall bullish market structure is clearly visible on D1. Traders, after the rate cuts, need to take a breath and wait for additional confirming signs.... For today, the focus is on the trading range indicated on the chart...
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Zigzag
GBPUSD → A change of sentiment. What happened?FX:GBPUSD is moving into a flat phase, possibly into counter-trend correction on the background of locally changed sentiment, formed by the fundamental background of Thursday / Friday, the dollar is growing on this background.
The currency pair is forming a bull market wave on D1-W1. On D1, a clear transition from bear market to bull market is formed, which is confirmed by the breakdown of the structure and smooth confirmation by the subsequent impulse.
The fundamental background is (temporarily) negative, there is no news for the next two days, respectively, the sentiment from last week remains.
Technically, the zone of interest for MM is the support from D1 at 1.3044. On H1 we have a strong liquidity zone ahead, which may trigger a primary pullback to the equilibrium zone before a subsequent decline to the key support and liquidity zone.
Resistance levels: 1.314, 1.3163
Support levels: 1.3088, 1.3081, 1.3044
Buyers decided to refrain for the time being, shorts on the currency pair are increasing on the background of the dollar growth. Ahead is an important event - CPI, PPI, as well as the Fed rate meeting on September 18. By this time the market may be neutral
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EURCAD → One step away from a rally. High chance to break 1.5100FX:EURCAD exited from the accumulation of the “descending triangle” format, which is a favorable signal for the continuation of the trend.
A promising bullish structure is forming on W1.
Euro, despite the ECB interest rate cuts, is growing and the growth is mostly related to the dollar, which is falling after Friday's news of PPI and Initial Jobless Claims. Now it is not the fact of the action itself that is being discussed, but how much it will be cut...
Technically, the currency pair is consolidating in front of the global resistance at 1.51000. The strong level has been holding the market in the bearish zone for several years, but the fundamental background gives a chance to break and move into the realization and growth phase.
Resistance levels: 1.5051, 1.51000
Support levels: 1750238, 1.4935
The primary reaction at 1.505 may end with a rebound, but most likely the bulls will manage to keep the defense above 1.5023 - 1.505, which may have a very favorable impact on the further growth of the trend.
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GOLD → Lower interest rates are ahead. A stalemate... ↑↓FX:XAUUSD is consolidating between 2588 - 2562. But, buyers are not yet out of the game in the hope of continued growth. Then everything depends on the Fed. Welcome to the casino :)
At 18:30 the FOMC & FED will meet to decide whether to cut rates. 0.25% or 0.5%. A 0.5% Fed rate cut could send a mixed signal about the state of the US economy: the Fed's concern about the economy, and that a “soft landing” may not turn out to be so soft, but it would be a strong bullrun signal for gold. A weaker policy, could provoke an unpredictable reaction, which would temporarily disappoint investors. In such a case, a correction to 2550-2525-2500 may form (price may bounce from any zone shown on the chart) before a further global rally, as the general tone of the market is set by the global Central Bank's interest rate cuts....
Resistance levels: 2575, 2588, 2600, ...
Support levels: 2561, 2550, 2530
It is difficult to say about expectations, as the uncertainty is high due to the fact that the overall situation is stalemate, either this way or that way. I recommend to refrain from trading on the news and wait for the volatility to decrease . The trading range for today is very wide....
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AUDUSD → A reversal set-up. Rebound before the fallFX:AUDUSD is breaking the bullish market structure amid the counter-trend dollar correction related to fundamentals. The currency pair is bumping into a strong liquidity area...
It will be difficult to pass the zone 0.6695 from the first time, because below this area there is a zone of high density of limit orders. Accordingly, as a reaction we see a false break of the support at 0.6699 (H4) and a rebound. Earlier there was a change of market character to bearish, rebound from the support may lead to recovery to 0.5-0.7 Fibo, from which further decline may resume to the key support from which 2 scenarios may develop. In a weak market the movement may continue, but if the general background starts to change (the dollar is in a bear market) the currency pair may start a recovery phase.
Resistance levels: 0.674, 0.676
Support levels: 0.6699, 0.6686
Technically, we are waiting for a pullback to the specified zone (0.5 - 0.7 Fibo), further it is worth watching the price reaction to the specified zones. A price retest of the support will increase the chances of a breakout and further decline, but strong bulls may continue to resist the bears, which may lead to growth
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OPUSDT → Double top. How far can we fall?BINANCE:OPUSDT cannot get out of the bears' clutches. The market continues to form its movement under the pressure of the downtrend. There are important events ahead that could shake up the trading community....
Bitcoin, as well as the rest of the cryptocurrency market continues to decline. Cryptocurrencies are not reacting to Trump's speech in any way, but traders are waiting for the U.S. rate cut in the hope that the encouraging data (0.5% decrease) will increase interest. But the 0.25% decrease will add weight to the bearish paw, which can only strengthen the already current decline.
Technically OPUSDT is forming a global bearish trend, the price is not allowed to update the local highs. The last retest ended with the formation of a double top, which led to a sharp decline.
Resistance levels: 1.469, 1.510, 1.544
Support levels: 1.431, 1.393, 1.3
The 1.431 area is holding the market back from falling, but a strong pre-breakdown accumulation is forming near this area with a target to continue falling. Watch out for the 1.430 trigger, a break of this zone will give downward momentum
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GOLD → Is it worth going up against knives? No trading history.. FX:XAUUSD continues to renew its high without any strong pullbacks. Buyers continue to behave quite aggressively before strong news. But everywhere there are risks and BUT!!!
There is a lot of news ahead before the important Fed meeting on interest rates, where they are likely to be cut. The question of “by how much” remains open, as weaker data (25 basis points) could trigger an unexpected reaction in the market that could lead to a correction....
But before that we have to face retail sales, CPI, FOMC.... Volatility will be elevated in the week ahead....
BUT! For intraday trading right now, there is such a problem as lack of history. You need to build a strategy from the general technical and fundamental background, as well as from local levels and key zones. BUT! The market is strongly bullish and before the news there can be both profit-taking and continuation of the rally....
Resistance levels: 2588, 2600, 2610
Support levels: 2577, 2573, 2563
The local range 2588 - 2577 is being formed. Before the news, traders may go into a consolidation phase, but we should keep an eye on the dollar, if it starts its downward flight, gold will react accordingly. Accordingly, a breakout of the local range boundaries may trigger a move to one side or the other.
REMEMBER! The market is bullish! Selling without proper reasons is the same as going against knives!
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BITCOIN → The fall will continue after a pullbackBINANCE:BTCUSDT is strengthening after a false breakdown of the 54.5K - 55K support. Fundamentally and technically, there is no buyer motivation. Traders have moved into the waiting or selling phase...
Now BTC is accumulated mainly by wallets with balance < 1BTC... Larger wallets are not doing much. Also, judging by the statistics of various services it can be seen that the trading activity of large investors has decreased, and whales have stopped actively accumulating since August. Traders doubt the current rebound in BTC and continue to actively short it.
Technically, the coin shows negative, bearish dynamics, forming gradually declining highs without the possibility to approach the retest of local peaks.
For the last one and a half or two months a tight sideways range has been formed and MM continues to keep the price inside the flat, it is also worth paying attention to the descending resistance, which also prevents the market from going up, putting pressure together with SMA-200.
Resistance Levels: SMA200, 59600, Trend Line
Support levels: 57736, 56K, 54500
At the moment the price is consolidating in the bullish zone, which indicates a possible chance to rise to 59600. The situation may end with a short-squeeze and further decline after liquidity capture. The pressure from sellers continues and buyers are not ready yet
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GOLD → Aggressive buyers... Ahead of PPIFX:XAUUSD is testing 2500 on the background of CPI data. Bulls actively continue to hold a strong support zone. An ascending triangle is being formed, the target of which is to break the resistance and rise.
After the release of CPI data in the US, the focus shifts to PPI and jobless claims data, which will give a new impetus to trading.
The CPI data has slightly cooled the increased bets on an excessive interest rate cut by the Fed next week. Despite the pullback, the gold price managed to defend a critical short-term support level around 2500 - 2505, keeping it in a three-week consolidated range.
Technically, the focus is on the SMAs, which are actively supporting the market, as well as the liquidity area of 2510, 2500, which the market may test once again on news before heading upwards.
Resistance levels: 2530
Support levels: SMA, 2510, 2500
The news may shake the market once again. Strong news may motivate the market to break resistance, but surprising PPI and Initial Jobless Claims data may trigger another sell-off attempt (to liquidity zones) before the price continues its rise. The market continues to focus on testing 2530
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ETHUSD → Manipulating growth before liquidation BINANCE:ETHUSD is forming a counter-trend bounce and is aiming for strong resistance amid a bearish trend. The project is going through a rough patch, fumbling for a market bottom...
ETH faces troubles::
WisdomTree has requested the withdrawal of its ETH (Ethereum Trust) fund registration application three years after filing with the SEC. Earlier, VanEck closed its futures ETH-ETF, citing lack of demand.
Likewise, indicators suggest that Whale stopped accumulating ETH since July. Since then, they have been mostly selling.
Technically, we see the market being squeezed by strong resistance: trend lines as well as moving averages, which may negatively affect the market, keeping the coin from rising.
Resistance levels: 2375, 2460, 2510.
Support levels: 2309, 2111
The coin is heading towards the resistance and liquidity area amid a bearish trend. This can be seen as a manipulated move to capture liquidity before further testing the intermediate bottom. I expect a decline from the mentioned zones towards 2100-2000.
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USDJPY → Full readiness to drop to 138.0 - 136.0FX:USDJPY breaks support at 141.68 and hits lows. The dollar is declining after the US election debate, but is still in consolidation ahead of CPI. The currency pair may continue to fall
Ahead of CPI, traders expect consumer inflation to fall to 2.5 for the year. This indicator will determine the interest rate cut next week, and more precisely by how much they will cut the interest rates, by 25 or 50 basis points.
Technically, everything is inclined to the further decrease of the dollar, which will be reflected on the currency pair. But, we should expect high volatility, within the framework of which, if the bears do not hold 141.68, the price may test 142.2 - 142.8 before further falling to 138 - 136.
Support levels: 140.75, 140.25
Resistance levels: 141.68, 142.2, 142.8
Global and local trends are under bearish pressure. Important news is ahead, which may strengthen the fall, or temporarily squeeze the price in the range. Consolidation of the price below 141.68 will be a good sign for the continuation of the fall
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GBPJPY → Traders increase short, preparing for a fallFX:GBPJPY is unable to continue the uptrend. The price is breaking the price channel support, and the parabolic curvature can be interpreted as a set of short positions.
The Japanese Yen continues to strengthen. GBP is forming a small correction since the Open of the session, and the Japnese national currency is accelerating northward.
The parabolic curvature that is forming on the chart can be explained as a set or increase of short positions by large players. Such a maneuver indicates a possible strong and prolonged decline in prices. But, the focus is on the sideways range 192 - 189. Despite the fact that the price has left the channel, it is still in the range and the mentioned support restrains the market from falling.
Resistance levels: 190.97, 192, MA-50
Support levels: 189
If the bears manage to break 189 and consolidate below, it will be the reason for the continuation of the decline to the global low. On D1 the price is pushing away from the strong zone and also shows bearish preconditions
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EURUSD → Entry into the bullish zone. ! NFP ahead !FX:EURUSD is returning to a bullish plane relative to the ascending channel. Focus is on the 1.1100 obfuscation and the upcoming NFP data to be released later on Friday.
Price is testing the global resistance level at 1.1125. Before the news, a struggle for the key zone may form or a pullback may be formed. The favorable NFP, which the markets are waiting for before a possible interest rate cut on September 18, may affect the decline of the dollar, which in turn will have a bullish effect on the currency pair. Unexpected data may close the price in the range of 1.120 - 1.105.
Resistance levels: 1.114, 1.120
Support levels: 1.1099, 1.1047
The focus is on the resistance of the ascending channel and 1.110. If the bulls can take the defense above this zone, we should expect growth to 1.130 in the future. But a failed attempt may affect the pullback to 0.5 fibo or 1.1045.
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BNXUSDT → Liquidation on bullish trend before rising...BINANCE:BNXUSDT continues to correct and is heading towards global bullish trend support.Against the overall backdrop, the coin looks promising as one of the few continues to hold an uptrend....
Locally, BNX is testing the key liquidity area, a rebound to 1.300 may follow, but depending on the situation, there are various patterns indicating selling pressure on the market, such as: local lows, sma cross, closing bars at daily lows.... But, confidence is given by the overall trend. It is worth paying attention to the support 1.061 - 1.22, in this zone the struggle between the market participants is formed. The bulls may finally win if they are able to consolidate above 1.2000, but before that a long-squeeze or a scramble for support is possible.
Resistance levels: 1.2000, 1.31, 1.425
Support levels: 1.14, 1.06, 0.95
Technically, the trend boundary and liquidity area has not been tested yet. There are no strong bullish signals and MM may form a trap (false growth, liquidation (sell-off) and false breakdown followed by growth). Emphasis on these key zones...
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GOLD → CPI ahead. High risks to renew ATH, but...FX:XAUUSD is testing 2530 and risks a new high as each new retest increases the chances of a resistance breakout. Ahead of CPI, inflation data could set the medium-term tone for markets...
Traders are waiting for US inflation data that could confirm the size of the Fed's interest rate cut next week.
An uptick in CPI figures could trigger a rise in the dollar at the expense of gold prices (capital outflows), negating expectations of an excessive Fed rate cut.
Conversely, softer CPI data could revive bets for a 50 basis point Fed rate cut, collapsing the dollar and pushing the gold price to new lifetime highs. The 2530 area is very active in keeping the market from rising, accordingly, the accumulation of orders above 2530, if the resistance is broken, could activate a rally....
Resistance levels: 2530
Support levels: 2514, 2512, 2506
The price return to the resistance area will confirm the readiness to test 2530 for a breakout. If the bulls manage to pass this zone, we should count on growth, but the bears are holding this area quite aggressively. There is also a high probability to catch a short-squeeze and further decline to 2506-2500.
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GOLD → Liquidity is a magnet. Getting ready to test 2475FX:XAUUSD like the TVC:DXY is going up, only the currency has a reason, and gold forms this movement based on manipulation. The price is at a strong resistance and a double top, which forms the prerequisites for a decline towards 2490-2475.
The dollar is strengthening on the background of a weak report on the U.S. labor market, as well as due to the Asian market, where fears of a slowdown in the Chinese economy are growing, despite the fact that traders expect lower interest rates next week. The theme of a “hard landing” for the U.S. economy is still on a high tone.... The reason for gold's rise since the beginning of the trading session on Monday is behind the decline in US Treasury bond yields
All eyes are still on the US inflation data due to be released on Wednesday... There is no reason for the price to move out of the range, accordingly, gold will continue to form a sideways (neutral) market direction.
Resistance levels: 2507, 2516
Support levels: 2500, 2494, 2484, 2475
Technically, the price is bouncing off 0.5 fibo, forming a double top with no opportunity to reach the upper boundary of the range as there is no interest for MM. The key liquidity is hidden in the lower part of the range, where, most likely, the price will seek in the near future on the background of the dollar growth
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GOLD → Area of Interest 2475. What's next? 2450 or 2500?FX:XAUUSD is shedding downward on the background of unexpected NFP, which was published on Friday. The dollar is rising, which is generally negative for the metal. But, globally, gold is still strongly bullish....
The first half of the week should be extremely quiet, as important news will not start to arrive until Wednesday. Traders are waiting for CPI, PPI, as well as the Fed meeting scheduled for September 18, where they are expected to make a decision on interest rate cuts. A rate cut makes currencies cheaper, which only increases the interest in gold.
Technically, the price of gold can't consolidate above 2500 and is trading below the critical level of 2494, indicating buyer weakness, which goes into the accumulation or waiting phase....
Resistance levels: 2493, 2500
Support levels: 2485, 2475, 2450
Technically, it is worth considering a decline and a retest of 2475, as after the upward rally from below there is a huge pool of liquidity that attracts the market. Further, further scenario will depend on the market reaction to the range support: False breakdown may give a chance for growth to 2500, and breakdown and consolidation below 2475 may provoke longsqueeze to 2450.
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GOLD → Aggressive bulls and double bottoms. What's next?FX:XAUUSD is testing the support of the range, forming a double bottom and distribution. Buyers are not ready to say goodbye to 2475, aggressively holding this area. Price is heading towards the upper end of the range.
Bulls held global support, bringing price back to ATH amid expectations of key economic data from the US. NFP, and inflation data on Friday weigh on markets' assessment of the size of the Fed's rate cut this month. Gold traders will be focused on ADP private sector employment data, Initial Jobless Claims and ISM services PMI.
Technically, the focus is on the 2526 - 2504 range. Such a strong move (distribution) is fraught with a false breakdown and rebound, but there are fundamental nuances: favorable news can strengthen the rally and break the resistance, while negative news can turn the price all the way to 2475.
Resistance levels: 2526, 2531
Support levels: 2510, 2504, 2494
Emphasis on the retest of resistance 2526. High probability of a rebound to 0.5 fibo. Further, the market will be influenced by economic data, which will be published from 12:15 GMT. It is not excluded that the price will reverse earlier or fly to 2550.
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USDJPY → Consolidating before the news.... FX:USDJPY has been in consolidation for a long time, correlating with the dollar. Traders are waiting for key news and are not ready to act early.
The currency pair is in the downward phase, which is a consequence of the strengthening of the Japanese yen on the background of the dollar's decline. The Central Bank of Japan actively considered the issue of raising rates, but postponed this step for later because of destabilized markets.
Today is an important report on inflation in the USA. So far, everything is going according to the Fed's plan. Markets are actively plotting the start of a Fed rate cut in September.
Technically, the bearish trend may continue, there is a huge pool of liquidity above 147.9, which may be liquidated before further decline.
Resistance levels: 147.9, 150.2, 150.86
Support levels: 146.29, 144.04
Technically and fundamentally we have prerequisites leading to a possible decline. We should wait for news to take some actions....
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EURUSD → A retest of the liquidity zone. Ready to go to 1.130FX:EURUSD is testing the liquidity zone within the correction. False breakdown of the channel boundary may form another bullish potential for continuation of growth to 1.1300
The currency pair forms a false breakdown of 1.1123, after which it enters the correction phase amid a strong market. The price is testing 0.236 fibo on D1, forming a false breakdown we get a reaction in the form of a pullback. On H4 the situation is even more interesting: false breakdown of the support conglomerate: 0.5 fibo + channel boundaries, which only strengthens the bullish set-up.
Today the focus is on CPI in the Eurozone, as well as Core PCE in the US. High volatility is possible and the news may set a short-term tone in the market.
Resistance levels: 1.1099, 1.1201
Support levels: channel boundary, 1.1061, 1.1047
The task of the bulls is to keep the defense above the resistance of the ascending channel, as well as above the level of 1.1099 - 1.11, in this case the price will consolidate above the lower boundary of the new bullish channel, which will open for us the potential for growth to 1.1300.
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LTC → Price exit from accumulation ↑BINANCE:LTCUSDT is coming out of accumulation, breaking the structure of the “descending wedge” pattern - a rather strong bullish pattern. Price is still pinned by resistance, but the bulls have a chance...
Globally, there is no trend in the market. The price is in a sideways movement between 114.0 - 56.0, which I consider a positive reason for a possible rise, as the price moves between the levels in a range. But we have prerequisites for possible growth (consolidation above MA-50, break of the wedge resistance), theoretically the price can head towards the resistance of the global range.
Emphasis on the area of 0.5 fibo - 67.8. If the bulls successfully manage to keep the defense above the mentioned zones, in the mid-term the coin can show a good realization towards 76.9 - 88.6.
Resistance levels: 67.8, 76.9
Support levels: descending line, MA-50, 0.5 Fibo
Perhaps the primary retest of 67.8 will not bring success and the price may form a small correction, but the gradual return of the price to the retest will increase the chances of a breakout. A fixing above the level will be a good signal for growth!
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GOLD → Risk zone! One step away from a prolonged correctionFX:XAUUSD is trading in the lower half of the key range. The price failed to hold above 2493, the market is spilling back to support. But, there are nuances pointing to both a rebound and a possible fall.....
The trend is still bullish. The price is entering the risk zone of 2470 - 2480. If the bulls do not keep the price above this zone, we should expect a prolonged correction. But, there are Initial Jobless Claims and NFP report ahead, which traders are waiting for so much. The economic nuances can both strengthen local movements and revive the global trend.
On H1 the price is strongly declining to the support, such a fast movement is fraught with a rebound, which can bring the price back to 2493 - 2500 and this is probably the key movement. But there is a but everywhere! It is hard to tell from the volumes that the buyer is ready for any action. False breakout and consolidation above 2477 may affect the growth.
Resistance levels: 2493, 2500
Support levels: 2477, 2473, 2450
But the fall is not excluded. If there is no reaction to the 2477-2473 zone in the form of a rebound, and gold starts to consolidate near the support, then we should consider a decline, the key target of which could be the 2450 zone and the trend line on D1.
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