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Zigzagcorrrection

ORBEX: EURAUD - Are We Going To See A ZigZag Duplication?It looks like we are on a bear flag correction with the potential moving down increasing following the minuette zig-zag ( (a)(b)(c) ) appttern. The correction down to 1.618% FE validates this pattern. The flag structure hints to a duplication of the first corrective leg down as it is dominant, which places the intermediate target for EURAUD near 1.55 It is likely that after a successful bearish breakout the currency pair slides towards the 61.8% FR near 1.59 first, and then slip lower between 78.6-88.6% FR levels. This scenario could lead to lower lows forming a new low for intermediate wave 2. Note that bears could start pushing lower at any point, or, alternatively, they could let market move higher for one last upside leg before pushing down! This opportunity would be invalidated above 1.65 or so, or the intersection between price, time and the top trendline of the bear flag. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex
Short
by Orbex
ORBEX: GOLD - Expecting a Complex Corrective Structure? It looks like we have a triangle. Since they usually appear in wave B or 4, and it doesn't look like we are on a B wave, the corrective structure hints to a complex w,x,y minute wave. The complex correction is part of minor wave 4, which has a termination level above 1600, where intermediate wave 3 is likely to complete. After minor 3 top at 1557 markets corrected with a zig-zag pattern that has a 61.80% (b) wave and 100% (c) extension wave. With subminuette wave 4 nearly completed, subminuette wave 5 is likely to end near w minute low and form a flat pattern. Unless if minuette wave (a) extends below 1454 we could expect this pattern to form a different structure. The completion of (a) should see prices moving higher for a (b) minuette and then slide lower. In case the decline to (a) stops at minute w low, (b)'s top would be the 1513. Anything above would invalidate the flat, but could indeed become an expanded flat (unlikely). This opportunity would be invalidated above 1536. A break below 1480 would be an early sign of validation towards (a). Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by Orbex
ORBEX: EURJPY - Successful Zig-Zag Could Validate ReversalIt looks like the corrective intermediate wave (C) of the corrective bearish Primary wave 5 ended at 115.87. As part of Cycle b, or 2, we can now expect prices to move higher medium and long-term with one of the medium-term upside stops laying at 122.54. The current minute ii correction is likely to end as a zig-zag complex pattern w,x,y with minuette y potentially ending near 116.76, where the 78.6% FR of the minute impulse is. In case it turns up sooner, we should be looking that happening from next week onwards, if not today, Friday. The current structure suggests that once this correction is done with, prices could continue up and end complete the 5-wave minute impulse at the 1.618% FE, where minor 1 is likely to form a corrective pullback pattern. We could look for short-term sells and then a reversal to follow the motive minute wave iii. Invalid below 115.88 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
Short
by Orbex
ORBEX EURUSD: Was This The End Of The Zig-Zag Correction?It looks like the primary W,X,Y zig-zag wave ended the longer-term bearish cycle correction starting on February 2018. Minor 5 of Primary Y wave ended with a diagonal triangle at 1.09275 level, which is the 1.618% FE of the 1.14-1.12-1.128 triangulation. Since prices broke outside the top of the triangle pattern and remained trading with a bullish rather than bearish bias (i.e. remained outside the pattern), the current structure could be a corrective minute wave 2. Should this scenario be supported by a higher break above 1.11, further upside could be seen, with next short-to-medium-term stops at 1.1285 and 1.1355. The current structure hints to an ascending triangle correction, the top-break of which would suggest a continuation to the upside. Although a decline to lower levels than the 61.80% FR at 1.0997 could weigh on bulls, the invalidation for the bullish scenario would come true only after a weakening of the 1.09275 market low. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
Long
by Orbex
ORBEX NZDJPY: Is 66.34 The End of The Complex Correction?It looks like the primary W,X,Y wave ended by the 66.34 low and now an impulsive, motive wave is starting, supporting the longer-term bullish cycle. Primary Y wave reminds a zig-zag correction, and since the 2.618 FE of minor A,B was reached at 67.336 (with a false break just below at 66.34), chances of this turning and remaining bullish increase. We could indeed see prices receiving a rejection at the 1.618 FE of minute v (which is only a projection so far anyway) at 71.233 but even then we should expect that to either a) become a short-term correction to 71.378 and continue higher for minor 5 near 76.233, or b) correct lower to either form a more complex corrective pattern or continue lower (given it breaks the previous low at 66.34). A decline could lead to 62 area levels. In case prices slide lower, we could see a deeper correction down to 50-62% FR levels at 67-68 and still be bullish. Should bulls take over soon once again, a break above 69.685 could validate a short-term upside move towards 71.00. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
Long
by Orbex
XAGUSD: Reactionary Bearish Wave Could Turn Into ZIG-ZAGI turned bearish on XAGUSD since prices broke above the psychological multiyear triangle (15.56 intersection). With Primary 3 well out the way and Intermediate A seem completed we are now looking at our options with respect to the deepness of the current reactionary structure. Since we are moving within motive intermediate B, hence looking for a potential turn-around level, it may worth putting a tag at the Golden Ratio at 18.9514. That level is not only in confluence with the minute open triangle correction pattern but gives us a structurally correct target for minor and intermediate waves C, and cycle wave 4. In the scenario prices stop and reverse down we could have a zig-zag pattern. The break of 17.79 could take minor A down at 17.07 and minor C at 15.91. The zig-zag pattern would require minor B to stop and continue lower below the 17.79 level. Note the FE levels above are in confluence with intermediate 4 low and minor 4 low! Should bears take over once again intermediate C will be on its way nevertheless! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Orbex
1
Gold Wave Analysis Multiple Trading OpportunitiesGold is in the middle of a corrective structure. The structure is still forming and it is not yet clear if it is a variation of a Flat pattern or a zig zag. It is clear that price will make an initial sell off to retest the low of the A wave support, then it will either push to the blue box to finish the corrective structure forming a zig zag or it will push back up towards the resistance of the B wave to form a Flat pattern then push lower. After price reach the blue box I am looking for a very strong Impulse wave to finish the Bullish trend
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by JjohnsonBeGreat
NEM ($XEM): Triple ZigZag vs. Impulsive Wave-1 with extensionXEM is difficult to predict now. I can see a few possible movements: a) Impulsive Wave-1 with Wave-1 extension = I expect retrace to 1600sats zone. b) Triple ZigZag Correction = retracement to 1900sats zone So, I'm going to wait how XEM manages re-test of 1900sats zone. Then the next price movements will be more clear. Generally, I don't expect that XEM will go lower than 1400sats. If you like my charts, pls. hit that "like" button, follow me or leave your comments. Thank you!
by AsBobbyDigital
Dow Likely Entering Bear Market: Broadening Top; Bear Flag Ominous portents. Broadening top in September led to the microcrash in October and US Equities have been struggling since. November usually one of the best months for stocks, has only been a down month in 3 years of past 20; those were in Bear Markets... Some very fine textbook chart formations appearing over past few months. The Zig-Zag Correction has led to what appears to be the end of the Great Bull. Fed will hike again next month and if they hike twice more we will get a recession starting in 2019. Earnings have already passed their halcyon days, look at Apple and NVidia, IBM and many other issues already entering bear markets. The power to drive this market to new heights has leaked out of the balloon, I'm afraid. Spent a weekend reading Murphy's Technical Analysis of Financial Markets, Chapter 6: Continuation Patterns is a lovely read, quoted for your reading pleasure: "The Broadening Formation is an unusual variation of the triangle and is relatively rare.... looks like an expanding triangle... also called a 'Megaphone Top.' In other triangular patterns, the volume tends to diminish as the swings grow narrower; in the broadening formation, volume tends to expand along with wider price swings. This situation represents a market that is out of control and unusually emotional. Because this pattern also represents an unusual amount of public participation, it most often occurs at major market tops. The expanding pattern, therefore, is usually a bearish formation. It generally appears near the end of a major bull market." -Murphy, 1999 Revised Ed., pages 140-141. "The flag and pennant represent brief pauses in a dynamic market move. One requirement... is they be preceded by a sharp, almost straight-line move. They represent pauses in which that market 'catches its breath' before running off in the same direction. Flags and pennants are among the most reliable continuation patterns and only rarely produce a trend reversal. ...Flags and pennants are said to 'fly at half-mast' from a 'flagpole,' as they appear at the midpoint of a major move. Pennants and flags on downtrends are completed very quickly, often in only 1-2 weeks, after which the breaking of the lower trendline in the pennant signals the resumption of the downtrend. The break down will take place on heavy volume, and the magnitude of the move is estimated by measuring the vertical distance of the preceding move from the breakout point of the pennant . Flags are small parallelograms that slope against the prevailing trend. Pennants resemble small horizontal symmetrical triangles." -Murphy, 1999 Revised Ed., pages 141-145. Well, this flag started flying on 14 Nov, I reckon it might snap off after the holiday week, maybe sooner, who knows? Expect it to fly a bit higher, to form a right shoulder which might be expected to occur around 25600 on Dow. We saw 25500 very briefly Friday on Trumptweet, another such tweet could top off the flag. Good luck! As always this is an educational post for your amusement and does not constitute investment advice; trade at your own risk!
DJ:DJI
by DaddySawbucks
11
US 30: EW3 Starting up Retracement to ATH?Midterms Tuesday. From MW: "Since 1946, there have been 18 midterm elections. Stocks were higher 12 months after every single one. Every single one. That’s 18 for 18. Even though we’ve had every possible political combination in the past 72 years. Republican president with Democratic Congress. Democratic president with Republican Congress. Republican president and Congress. Democratic president and Congress. Since 1946, stocks have risen an average of 17% in the year after a midterm. And if you measure from the yearly midterm lows, the results are even better. From their lows, stocks jumped an average of 32% over the next 12 months. For perspective, that’s more than double the average performance for stocks in all years. We’re also entering the third year of a presidential term, which is historically the strongest year for stocks." Dow and Sand P flat for the year now. Time to get back on track. Economy = strong, no recession in sight. Earnings - good, mostly real good. Mostly. Some surprises. IF we are in an EW impulse wave THEN we had wave 1 last week for 1k pips and wave 2 pullback Friday, lasting into AM Monday session, when the bulls showed up. Looks like we got a wave 3 starting up which I charted at 1.618 Fibo projecting extension to 26260 area with soft landing on wave 4 (alternating wave theory) and a fifth wave bullup to retest alltime highs. Call me crazy, but the impossible has already happened this year- twice. The zigzag correction has run its course, movin' on up! 2019 should run pretty strong until May when the cracks will begin to show. Subsequent bear will likely be longer than average bear, stronger than average bear, Yogi. Here's the reference link: www.marketwatch.com This is not investment advice, trade at your own risk, good luck!
DJ:DJILong
by DaddySawbucks
1
US 30 ZigZag Correction Near CompletionNearly there. Probably another rough day or two to get crushed down to support and complete the Zig-Zag correction (WXY). Elliott ABC wave near support. Expect a hammer Doji, a deep spike with reaction lift. Maybe Tues/Weds. Who knows, utterly unpredictable atm. Spy might get down to 253. Nas- who knows?! If index breaks and closes below the blue pivot support box, it's in big trouble and we should expect a bear market. Biting my nails to stubs. Monday wild price swings were astounding, it fooled a lot of us into thinking "This is it! Going up!" Expect consolidation at bottom first, not a giant bounce. As always, this isn't investment advice, trade at your own risk!
DJ:DJI
by DaddySawbucks
5
US 30 Consolidating: Expect Shave after the HaircutFibo 0.62 retrace from Mar/Apr lows to the Sep high intersects lower support trendline at 24750. Lower is possible, but... just sayin'. See Chart: res ipse loquitur. The downdraft should stop and pivot somewhere between the two support lines in chart. Should. Might. Expect a 0.50 retrace up from the pivot before next move. Expect another flashcrash to test the lower support sometime this week. Panic is wearing off now, although the indexes declined today VIX was also lower most of day. This is a pattern we see in consolidation- volatility, still high, but settling off peak highs while equities continue to decline and much whipsaw price action is evident. A consolidative pattern should emerge going into week of the 22nd to complete the Zig-Zag correction that began in January, with breakout to upside anticipating the Nov election. In spite of rate hikes and t-bill yields, earnings should propel equities to higher levels by year-end, and the looming recession is not yet in sight over the horizon. A fifth Elliott Wave going into the new year might carry prices to still higher levels before the real break- probably later in 2019. A bear market will likely arrive next year. The P/C ratio and bear:bull bias are so high now the contrarian view suggests we are near a bottom. So many pundits calling for the Great Crash of 2018 it probably won't happen. Great Crashes always happen when no one expects it, and everyone is wildly bullish! Transportation index is already forming its bottom, it is a leading indicator for the industrials. DJT up 65 Monday, with Dow off 90. From Monday close there might be another 500 pt drop left in the bear wave. Risk:reward for selling short now is more risk than reward. Puts are so expensive you would need a massive selloff to realize significant gains, and the darn things run down so fast, even when you're right, you're wrong. I bought a few just in case anyway! This is purely an educational post for your amusement and is not intended as any kind of investing advice. That said, I am accumulating longs as covered call writes. Good luck!
DJ:DJI
by DaddySawbucks
2
US 30 Bearish Gartley Near Completion - Closeup Personal ViewStarts to look like US 30 might fill the pattern in this bearish Gartley model after all. After 3 days of hard selling, pressure may abate and we ought to get a lift off the pivot at 26000, we saw strong resilience in US 30 over past sessions. In past two days, pattern of fierce selling relieved by bargain hunting in the afternoon. It appears that rotation is moving funds out of NAS & Sand P into US 30, which rose modestly on both Wednesday and Thursday, show of divergence in face of sharp declines in other indexes. -> "Flight to Quality" - seeking blue chips. RUT selling off, Sand P selling sharply then late day bargain hunting. Sand P has come down to support at its 20day moving average, and I expect it to bounce from here as well. Probably prudent to cover shorts if you're hoping for more bleeding, might be done for a while. US 30 is poised to move up the last leg to complete its Gartley pattern, see in chart how US 30 flight path is pointed straight at Fibonacci 1.618 from B-D?! NB: The trendline reaching back to Apr/Jun peaks intersects precisely at Gartley 'D' - coincidence? Perhaps... A final drive up to R3 will complete the pattern- only a measly 270 points north, could get easily there on one bullish Monday! Pulling money out of FANGs to move into Dow will do it. The pattern suggests a new lower high on/about Tuesday 11 September for US 30, unless bad surprise over weekend. After that- the big slide into the Zig-zag. I'm getting pretty excited thinking about the Big Short...! As always, this isn't investment advice, it's a fun post for education, enjoy it, and FGS be Carefull!
DJ:DJILong
by DaddySawbucks
US 30 Wave 5 Possible PathwayAfter a shallow brief wave 4 now in progress expect higher again for a week or ten days. Wave could carry Dow back to Jan high or perhaps a bit shy. Should get within 2 percent. By early to mid-September we could see Dow reach a new alltime high, although it has lagged Sand P and Nasdaq is a real bubble. Market was forming a smallish wave 4 when the Donald dropped his tweetbomb Thursday, yay for the Donster. Thanks buddy! I shorted puts literally ten minutes before the tweet, ZOMG! Nonetheless, it is a shallow wave 4, as wave 2 was pretty hard and deeper grind. Final wave is a 5th of 5th, so expect more intense bullish greed. Chart may not be scaled as I notice 5th wave projection appears a little tall, as wave 3 is never the shortest. We will see. I drew the Gartley to peak on Standard R2 Pivot, maybe that's too high, who knows?! As I write this post, futures already shaping up to turn bullish, Nas in the green again. In another post I discussed why Dow is lagging- it has to do with the index calculus. Sand P index accounts for shares outstanding and market cap is periodically adjusted. Dow is calculated based on shares outstanding, so as corporate repurchases decrease shares in market, price and earnings are inflated but multiplier is diminshed as #shares is less. 19th century math, go figure! So maybe US 30 will not get to 26616 again, as it has shrunk significantly (almost 6% after buybacks this year). Fibo for the Gartley is ~26268, we will see. As the rally rolls into final phase RUT will reach into 1740+ zone maybe up to 1750+; we saw 1740 this week briefly before the Great Tweet. This is a breakout pattern from the bear flag and it is parabolic in the other indexes; although Grand Dame Dow has lagged. Rut should falter before the other indexes. Nas is a bubble and when it pops will deflate with shocking speed, flight to quality may prop up the Dow briefly. The decline will likely be a full zigzag back to the neighborhood of strong support at 23530. Might not break that far down, depends on sentiment and fear. A flat correction results in the final leg reaching comparable level to the primary wave, which shed 3300 points off Dow in Feb. It will be a roller coaster. As always this is humorous speculative guesswork and in no way constitutes any kind of investment advice- gamble on stocks at your own risk, good luck!
DJ:DJILong
by DaddySawbucks
6
SPX Fifth of the Fifth Wave coming in Rare Three Drives PatternReasonably confident these wave counts are accurate. It's more art than science. Look at Mark Rivest's counts , he is even more optimistic than I am: We've got a triple combo 5-V-v wave forming off the shallow 4th wave last week. My Fibo projection for the last stage of the rally is 2937, but it could blow through that easily, won't be surprised to see it over 2950, although I really doubt it will get above 3 standard deviations from channel trend midline. I'll be taking a small but significant (perhaps 20%) long position to see if I can ride the tiger one last time. Lot of risk up in the nosebleed seats, be careful! The Three Drives pattern is rare so I've struggled to make EW fit but this pattern fits perfectly and calls for a 1.618 Fibo at 2937 on index. I expect to get there Wednesday. I usually post about US 30 but it will follow this and the Gartley Fibo for that I published already is 26268 with a B-D ratio of 1.618 and X-D 0.887. After that I'm closing longs and look for the reversal pivot signals. The downside after a monster rally like this is potentially huge and could break down 5-8% in a final leg C of the zig-zag correction that began in Jan. Most traders and investors will be shocked and amazed because they think the correction is over. The fat lady hasn't sung yet! Note to self: Next time you write about Fan Principle Projection, maybe consider taking a position, doh! Been bullfighting the whole way like a stubborn donkey. The only feeling worse than being right and then betting against yourself is watching a profit turn to loss. Last week: I got both those loving feelings! The trend is your friend. Although Sand P is trading two full standard deviations above midchannel (Modified Schiff fork brings it out nicely), and is high above 20D MA, the trend and sentiment still say higher. Could break at any time, but I reckon there are a couple of bullish days left in it and quite possibly an exhaustion gap up on last day (pretty sure last gap was an initiation gap for the 3rd of this 5th wave, it was not yet retraced... but it will be!). Ill be looking for the usual signs of topping out and the brief consolidation we typically get before the decline, will post as I see them. As always, this isn't investment advice, it's just an interesting idea for education only; you trade at your own risk, Good luck!
SP:SPXLong
by DaddySawbucks
14
US 30 IN ABC CORRECTION MINOR WAVE OF LARGER ZIGZAGUS 30 traded below Tuesday high of 25888, closing 98 points lower than 8/21 high, failing to confirm Sand P new alltime high on 8/24. The zig-zag pattern is evident on chart. I marked this one as a more complex ABC structure as a 5 wave reaction (ABCDE) is evident in A wave. Combined with bearish Gartley pattern confirmed 8/21, this latest rally attempt looks more like a B reactionary wave. Expect lower soon. I wondered about this as puts I bought 8/21 above 25800 were still trading near my purchase price on 8/24, in spite of wild bullishness in Sand P, which was nice, but made me think; "Hey why is Dow not keeping up and acts like stuck at 25800? Hmmm..." This is a bear flag, resolving into final C wave soon. Will be pretty rough I'm afraid- be careful! September is coming! Look out. Good luck! This is not investment advice it's just a fun post for education and ridicule. Enjoy!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
2
SPX in possible WXY correction reaching new closing high on 'X'Folks, We got blindsided by a surprise bull run Friday 8/24 which seemed so unlikely I was horrified and amazed all at once. In retrospect, some sort of rally was to be expected off the Thursday low prices, and I hedged my bets in case, but this was quite bullish indeed. In spite of making a new high closing price on Sand P, US 30 did not confirm the high today, closing 98 points below its Tuesday high of 25888. So what it appears we have is a vigorous reactionary countertrend wave 'B' or 'X', better, since this corrective minor wave lacks ABC complexity. We have seen all the usual candles tokening corrections; shooting stars, pin bars, engulfing bears, etc. These signals all indicate index is at or near high. What can we expect? Perhaps a tad higher intraday and another shooting star Monday, then lower again. It is a zigzag within a zigzag inside a larger zigzag. Just another bull trap, I reckon. Good luck! As always, this is not investment advice, it's purely for education and your amusement.
SP:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
2
US 30 Trendline Test Rejection: Imminent ThrowoverCompare/contrast to 11/12 June top and throwover. Bearish engulfing candle. Shooting stars. On intraday we saw hanging man twice, and shooting star in SPX 8/.21. Expect imminent throwover to entry on wave C of ABC ZigZag correction pattern within days, after reaching all-time high on SPX 8/21, US 30 25888 at Fibo 0.786 from Jan 26 high. Target 23531. Possibly one more rally attempt to trendline on 8/23, then swoon; or just start lower back down into Bear Flag channel now. As always, this is not investment advice and all comments are only intended for education and amusement. Good luck!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks